Showing papers on "Plague (disease) published in 2019"

Phylogeography of the second plague pandemic revealed through analysis of historical Yersinia pestis genomes

Abstract: The second plague pandemic, caused by Yersinia pestis, devastated Europe and the nearby regions between the 14th and 18th centuries AD. Here we analyse human remains from ten European archaeological sites spanning this period and reconstruct 34 ancient Y. pestis genomes. Our data support an initial entry of the bacterium through eastern Europe, the absence of genetic diversity during the Black Death, and low within-outbreak diversity thereafter. Analysis of post-Black Death genomes shows the diversification of a Y. pestis lineage into multiple genetically distinct clades that may have given rise to more than one disease reservoir in, or close to, Europe. In addition, we show the loss of a genomic region that includes virulence-related genes in strains associated with late stages of the pandemic. The deletion was also identified in genomes connected with the first plague pandemic (541-750 AD), suggesting a comparable evolutionary trajectory of Y. pestis during both events.

Ancient Yersinia pestis genomes from across Western Europe reveal early diversification during the First Pandemic (541-750).

Abstract: The first historically documented pandemic caused by Yersinia pestis began as the Justinianic Plague in 541 within the Roman Empire and continued as the so-called First Pandemic until 750. Although paleogenomic studies have previously identified the causative agent as Y. pestis , little is known about the bacterium’s spread, diversity, and genetic history over the course of the pandemic. To elucidate the microevolution of the bacterium during this time period, we screened human remains from 21 sites in Austria, Britain, Germany, France, and Spain for Y. pestis DNA and reconstructed eight genomes. We present a methodological approach assessing single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in ancient bacterial genomes, facilitating qualitative analyses of low coverage genomes from a metagenomic background. Phylogenetic analysis on the eight reconstructed genomes reveals the existence of previously undocumented Y. pestis diversity during the sixth to eighth centuries, and provides evidence for the presence of multiple distinct Y. pestis strains in Europe. We offer genetic evidence for the presence of the Justinianic Plague in the British Isles, previously only hypothesized from ambiguous documentary accounts, as well as the parallel occurrence of multiple derived strains in central and southern France, Spain, and southern Germany. Four of the reported strains form a polytomy similar to others seen across the Y. pestis phylogeny, associated with the Second and Third Pandemics. We identified a deletion of a 45-kb genomic region in the most recent First Pandemic strains affecting two virulence factors, intriguingly overlapping with a deletion found in 17th- to 18th-century genomes of the Second Pandemic.

Plague and long-term development: the lasting effects of the 1629–30 epidemic on the Italian cities

Abstract: This article aims to analyse the effects of plague on the long‐term development of Italian cities, with particular attention to the 1629–30 epidemic. By using a new dataset on plague mortality rates in 56 cities covering the period c. 1575–1700, an economic geography model verifying the existence of multiple equilibria is estimated. It is found that cities severely affected by the 1629–30 plague were displaced to a lower growth path. It is also found that plague caused long‐lasting damage to the size of Italian urban populations and to urbanization rates. These findings support the hypothesis that seventeenth‐century plagues played a fundamental role in triggering the process of relative decline of the Italian economies.

The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?

Abstract: Existing mortality estimates assert that the Justinianic Plague (circa 541 to 750 CE) caused tens of millions of deaths throughout the Mediterranean world and Europe, helping to end antiquity and start the Middle Ages. In this article, we argue that this paradigm does not fit the evidence. We examine a series of independent quantitative and qualitative datasets that are directly or indirectly linked to demographic and economic trends during this two-century period: Written sources, legislation, coinage, papyri, inscriptions, pollen, ancient DNA, and mortuary archaeology. Individually or together, they fail to support the maximalist paradigm: None has a clear independent link to plague outbreaks and none supports maximalist reconstructions of late antique plague. Instead of large-scale, disruptive mortality, when contextualized and examined together, the datasets suggest continuity across the plague period. Although demographic, economic, and political changes continued between the 6th and 8th centuries, the evidence does not support the now commonplace claim that the Justinianic Plague was a primary causal factor of them.

The Third Plague Pandemic in Europe

Abstract: Plague has a long history on the European continent, with evidence of the disease dating back to the Stone Age. Plague epidemics in Europe during the First and Second Pandemics, including the Black Death, are infamous for their widespread mortality and lasting social and economic impact. Yet, Europe still experienced plague outbreaks during the Third Pandemic, which began in China and spread globally at the end of the nineteenth century. The digitization of international records of notifiable diseases, including plague, has enabled us to retrace the introductions of the disease to Europe from the earliest reported cases in 1899, to its disappearance in the 1940s. Using supplemental literature, we summarize the potential sources of plague in Europe and the transmission of the disease, including the role of rats. Finally, we discuss the international efforts aimed at prevention and intervention measures, namely improved hygiene and sanitation, that ultimately led to the disappearance of plague in Europe.

Plague vaccine: recent progress and prospects

Abstract: Three great plague pandemics, resulting in nearly 200 million deaths in human history and usage as a biowarfare agent, have made Yersinia pestis as one of the most virulent human pathogens. In late 2017, a large plague outbreak raged in Madagascar attracted extensive attention and caused regional panics. The evolution of local outbreaks into a pandemic is a concern of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in plague endemic regions. Until now, no licensed plague vaccine is available. Prophylactic vaccination counteracting this disease is certainly a primary choice for its long-term prevention. In this review, we summarize the latest advances in research and development of plague vaccines.

Social capital predicts corruption risk in towns

Abstract: Corruption is a social plague: gains accrue to small groups, while its costs are borne by everyone. Significant variation in its level between and within countries suggests a relationship between s...

Rejecting Catastrophe: The Case of the Justinianic Plague

Abstract: Recent research has increasingly argued that the Justinianic Plague was an unparallelled demographic catastrophe which killed half the population of the Mediterranean world and led to the end of Antiquity. This article re-examines the evidence and reconsiders whether this interpretation is justified. It builds upon an array of interdisciplinary research that includes literary and non-literary primary sources, archaeological excavations, DNA research, disaster studies and resilience frameworks. Each type of primary source material is critically reassessed and contextualized in light of current research. By drawing upon this interdisciplinary foundation, the article demonstrates that the evidence for the catastrophic maximalist interpretation of plague is weak, ambiguous and should be rejected. The article also makes use of the Third Pandemic as a comparative case study, and considers how the metanarratives of plague in contemporary society influence research on the subject. It concludes that the Justinianic Plague had an overall limited effect on late antique society. Although on some occasions the plague might have caused high mortality in specific places, leaving strong impressions on contemporaries, it neither caused widespread demographic decline nor kept Mediterranean populations low. Any direct mid- or long-term effects of plague were minor at most.

Living with plague: Lessons from the Soviet Union’s antiplague system

Abstract: Zoonoses, such as plague, are primarily animal diseases that spill over into human populations. While the goal of eradicating such diseases is enticing, historical experience validates abandoning eradication in favor of ecologically based control strategies (which reduce morbidity and mortality to a locally accepted risk level). During the 20th century, one of the most extensive plague-eradication efforts in recorded history was undertaken to enable large-scale changes in land use in the former Soviet Union (including vast areas of central Asia). Despite expending tremendous resources in its attempt to eradicate plague, the Soviet antiplague response gradually abandoned the goal of eradication in favor of plague control linked with developing basic knowledge of plague ecology. Drawing from this experience, we combine new gray-literature sources, historical and recent research, and fieldwork to outline best practices for the control of spillover from zoonoses while minimally disrupting wildlife ecosystems, and we briefly compare the Soviet case with that of endemic plague in the western United States. We argue for the allocation of sufficient resources to maintain ongoing local surveillance, education, and targeted control measures; to incorporate novel technologies selectively; and to use ecological research to inform developing landscape-based models for transmission interruption. We conclude that living with emergent and reemergent zoonotic diseases—switching to control—opens wider possibilities for interrupting spillover while preserving natural ecosystems, encouraging adaptation to local conditions, and using technological tools judiciously and in a cost-effective way.

A survival analysis of the last great European plagues: The case of Nonantola (Northern Italy) in 1630

Abstract: This paper develops the first survival analysis of a large-scale mortality crisis caused by plague. For the time-to-event analyses we used the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Our case study is the town of Nonantola during the 1630 plague, which was probably the worst to affect Italy since the Black Death. Individual risk of death did not depend on sex, grew with age (peaking at ages 40-60 and then declining), was not affected by socio-economic status, and was positively associated with household size. We discuss these findings in light of the historical-demographic and palaeo-demographic literature on medieval and early modern plagues. Our results are compatible with the debated idea that ancient plague was able to spread directly from human to human. Our methods could be replicated in other studies of European plagues to nuance and integrate the findings of recent palaeo-biological and palaeo-demographic research on plague.

Plague management of prairie dog colonies: degree and duration of deltamethrin flea control.

Abstract: Plague is a flea-borne disease of mammalian hosts. On the grasslands of western North America, plague stifles populations of Cynomys spp. prairie dogs (PDs). To manage plague, PD burrows are treated with 0.05% deltamethrin dust that can suppress flea numbers and plague transmission. Here, we evaluate the degree and duration of deltamethrin flea control with three PD species at six sites across four U.S. states. Data were simultaneously collected at paired plots. Burrows from one randomly assigned member of each pair were treated with deltamethrin; non-treated plots served as experimental baselines. Flea control was strong ≤two months after treatment, remained moderate one year later, and was statistically detectable for up to two years at some sites. Flea abundance was lower in plots with higher rates of deltamethrin application. After burrow treatments, flea abundance increased over time, reaching >one per PD within 255 to 352 days. Nevertheless, annual treatments of burrows with deltamethrin provided PDs with substantial protection against plague. Even so, deltamethrin should be further evaluated and combined with other tools under an integrated approach to plague management. Integrated plague management should help to conserve PDs and species that associate with them, including the endangered black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes).

Google Trends Predicts Present and Future Plague Cases During the Plague Outbreak in Madagascar: Infodemiological Study

Abstract: Background Plague is a highly infectious zoonotic disease caused by the bacillus Yersinia pestis. Three major forms of the disease are known: bubonic, septicemic, and pneumonic plague. Though highly related to the past, plague still represents a global public health concern. Cases of plague continue to be reported worldwide. In recent months, pneumonic plague cases have been reported in Madagascar. However, despite such a long-standing and rich history, it is rather difficult to get a comprehensive overview of the general situation. Within the framework of electronic health (eHealth), in which people increasingly search the internet looking for health-related material, new information and communication technologies could enable researchers to get a wealth of data, which could complement traditional surveillance of infectious diseases. Objective In this study, we aimed to assess public reaction regarding the recent plague outbreak in Madagascar by quantitatively characterizing the public's interest. Methods We captured public interest using Google Trends (GT) and correlated it to epidemiological real-world data in terms of incidence rate and spread pattern. Results Statistically significant positive correlations were found between GT search data and confirmed (R2=0.549), suspected (R2=0.265), and probable (R2=0.518) cases. From a geospatial standpoint, plague-related GT queries were concentrated in Toamasina (100%), Toliara (68%), and Antananarivo (65%). Concerning the forecasting models, the 1-day lag model was selected as the best regression model. Conclusions An earlier digital Web search reaction could potentially contribute to better management of outbreaks, for example, by designing ad hoc interventions that could contain the infection both locally and at the international level, reducing its spread.

Historical and genomic data reveal the influencing factors on global transmission velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic.

Abstract: Quantitative knowledge about which natural and anthropogenic factors influence the global spread of plague remains sparse. We estimated the worldwide spreading velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic, using more than 200 years of extensive human plague case records and genomic data, and analyzed the association of spatiotemporal environmental factors with spreading velocity. Here, we show that two lineages, 2.MED and 1.ORI3, spread significantly faster than others, possibly reflecting differences among strains in transmission mechanisms and virulence. Plague spread fastest in regions with low population density and high proportion of pasture- or forestland, findings that should be taken into account for effective plague monitoring and control. Temperature exhibited a nonlinear, U-shaped association with spread speed, with a minimum around 20 °C, while precipitation showed a positive association. Our results suggest that global warming may accelerate plague spread in warm, tropical regions and that the projected increased precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere may increase plague spread in relevant regions.

The rise of pneumonic plague in Madagascar: current plague outbreak breaks usual seasonal mould.

Abstract: Madagascar has just emerged from the grip of an acute urban pneumonic plague outbreak, which began in August 2017, before the usual plague season of October-April and outside the traditional plague foci in the northern and central highlands. The World Health Organization reported a total of 2417 confirmed, probable and suspected cases, including 209 deaths between 1 August and 26 November 2017. The severity and scope of this outbreak, which has affected those in higher socioeconomic groups as well as those living in poverty, along with factors including the potential for use of multi-drug-resistant strains of plague in bioterrorism, highlights the ongoing threat posed by this ancient disease. Factors likely to have contributed to transmission include human behaviour, including burial practices and movement of people, poor urban planning leading to overcrowding and ready transmission by airborne droplets, climatic factors and genomic subtypes. The outbreak demonstrates the importance of identifying targeted pneumonic plague therapies and of developing vaccines that can be administered in planned programmes in developing countries such as Madagascar where plague is endemic. The dominance of pneumonic plague in this outbreak suggests that we need to focus more urgently on the danger of person-to-person transmission, as well as the problem of transmission of plague from zoonotic sources.

Yersinia pestis, a problem of the past and a re-emerging threat

Abstract: Yersinia pestis is the bacteria that causes plague, one of the deadliest diseases in human history. Three major plague pandemics (the Justinian Plague, the Black Death and the Modern Plague) have been recorded. Each caused massive fatalities and has become defining events in the time periods in places that were affected. The presence of natural plague foci in rodents across the world is one of the risk factors for human plague. While plague is a relatively rare problem for most countries, more than 90% of plague cases in the world still occur in Africa. This article discusses the threat of Yersinia pestis in the modern world by considering its prevalence and severity of illness it causes, transmission, antibiotic resistance, and its potential as a bioweapon.

Death by the Lake: Mortality Crisis in Early Fourteenth-Century Central Asia

Abstract: Our information about the fourteenth-century plague in Central Asia, or indeed anywhere east of the Crimea/Caspian, derives from a close analysis of the epigraphical evidence from three East Syriac...

Plague in Zimbabwe from 1974 to 2018: a review article.

Abstract: Plague is a zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis and is transmitted through the bites of infected rodent fleas. Plague is well known for causing 3 major human pandemics that have killed millions of people since 541 A.D. The aim of this Review is to provide an overview of the epidemiology and ecology of plague in Zimbabwe with special emphasis on its introduction, its potential reservoirs and vectors, and possible causes of its persistence and cyclic outbreaks. To achieve this, we carried out a search and document reported plague outbreaks in Zimbabwe. In the country, human plague cases have been reported in Hwange, Nkayi, and Lupane since 1974. The highest number of cases occurred in 1994 in the Nkayi district of Matabeleland North Province with a total of 329 confirmed human cases and 28 deaths. Plague is encountered in 2 different foci in the country, sylvatic and rural. Risk factors for contracting plague in the country include man-to-rodent contact, cultivation, hunting, cattle herding, handling of infected materials, camping in forests, and anthropic invasion of new areas. Plague is now enzootic in Zimbabwe, and the most recent case was reported in 2012, hence its effective control requires up-to-date information on the epidemiology and ecology of the disease. This can be achieved through continuous monitoring and awareness programs in plague-prone areas.

Life in a Time of Pestilence: The Great Castilian Plague of 1596–1601

Abstract: From the Middle Ages onwards, deadly epidemics swept through portions of Spain repeatedly, but the Castilian Plague at the end of the sixteenth century was especially terrible. In late 1596, a ship carrying the plague docked in Santander, and over the next five years the disease killed some 500,000 people in Castile, around 10 percent of the population. Plague is traditionally understood to have triggered chaos and madness. By contrast, Ruth Mackay focuses on the sites of everyday life, exploring how beliefs, practices, laws, and relationships endured even under the onslaught of disease. She takes an original and holistic approach to understanding the impact of plague, and explores how the epidemic was understood and managed by everyday people. Offering a fresh perspective on the social, political, and economic history of Spain, this original and engaging book demonstrates how, even in the midst of chaos, life carried on.

The Justinianic Plague: an interdisciplinary review

Abstract: This article is a detailed critical review of all the major scholarly publications in the rapidly expanding field of the Justinianic Plague published from 2000 through 2018. It updates the article in this journal by Dionysios Stathakopoulos from 2000, while also providing a detailed appraisal of the state of the field across all disciplines, including: literary studies, archaeology, DNA evidence, climatology, and epidemiology. We also identify the current paradigm for the Justinianic Plague as well as survey possible avenues forward for the field in the future.1

Florence Under Siege: Surviving Plague in an Early Modern City

Abstract: Book synopsis: A vivid recreation of how the governors and governed of early seventeenth-century Florence confronted, suffered, and survived a major epidemic of plague Plague remains the paradigm against which reactions to many epidemics are often judged. Here, John Henderson examines how a major city fought, suffered, and survived the impact of plague. Going beyond traditional oppositions between rich and poor, this book provides a nuanced and more compassionate interpretation of government policies in practice, by recreating the very human reactions and survival strategies of families and individuals. From the evocation of the overcrowded conditions in isolation hospitals to the splendor of religious processions, Henderson analyzes Florentine reactions within a wider European context to assess the effect of state policies on the city, street, and family. Writing in a vivid and approachable way, this book unearths the forgotten stories of doctors and administrators struggling to cope with the sick and dying, and of those who were left bereft and confused by the sudden loss of relatives.

The Smoke of War: From Tamburlaine to Henry V

Abstract: Early in Tamburlaine Part 1, Marlowe’s protagonist promises that his army’s bullets, “[e]nrolde in flames and fiery smouldering mistes”, will occupy the heavens. Uniting the technological with the ...

Using evidence to inform response to the 2017 plague outbreak in Madagascar: a view from the WHO African Regional Office.

Abstract: The 2017 plague outbreak in Madagascar was unprecedented in the African region, resulting in 2417 cases (498 confirmed, 793 probable and 1126 suspected) and 209 deaths by the end of the acute urban pneumonic phase of the outbreak. The Health Emergencies Programme of the WHO Regional Office for Africa together with the WHO Country Office and WHO Headquarters assisted the Ministry of Public Health of Madagascar in the rapid implementation of plague prevention and control measures while collecting and analysing quantitative and qualitative data to inform immediate interventions. We document the key findings of the evidence available to date and actions taken as a result. Based on the four goals of operational research - effective dissemination of results, peer-reviewed publication, changes to policy and practice and improvements in programme performance and health - we evaluate the use of evidence to inform response to the outbreak and describe lessons learned for future outbreak responses in the WHO African region. This article may not be reprinted or reused in any way in order to promote any commercial products or services.

Plague – a disease of children and servants? A study of the parish records of St Peter upon Cornhill, London from 1580 to 1605

Abstract: A study of the parish records of St Peter upon Cornhill in London from 1580 to 1605 revealed that children suffered a greater increase in mortality than adults in the plague years of 1593 and 1603, and servants accounted for the majority of deaths within the 15–24 age group. Some family groups avoided the plague altogether, others suffered a single burial, however in some cases, individuals within the same family household were buried within a short period of each other. The epidemiological pattern is complex and is moderated by social and demographic networks. Comparisons are made with modern epidemics caused by Yersinia pestis.

Animal Exposure and Human Plague, United States, 1970–2017

Abstract: Since 1970, >50% of patients with plague in the United States had interactions with animals that might have led to infection. Among patients with pneumonic plague, nearly all had animal exposure. Improved understanding of the varied ways in which animal contact might increase risk for infection could enhance prevention messages.

Naming the Plague in Homer, Sophocles and Thucydides

Abstract: Abstract:This article focuses on the language used to describe the plague, and more specifically on the oscillation of its vocabulary between literal and figurative meaning, in Homer's Iliad (1.1–487), Sophocles' Oedipus the King (1–215), and Thucydides' History of the Peloponnesian War (esp. 2.47.3–2.54). It is argued that the plague spreads in the language of the three narratives by association or contiguity, exploiting existing links with related words, most notably the broader vocabulary of disease and calamity, but it also spreads by analogy, comparison, or similarity, establishing links with other domains such as famine, blight, war and destruction.

The Plague Doctor of Venice

Abstract: There is a distinctive Venetian carnival mask with sinister overtones and historical significance to physicians because it belongs to the 'Doctor of the Plague'. The costume features a beaked white mask, black hat and waxed gown. This was worn by mediaeval Plague Doctors as protection according to the Miasma Theory of disease propagation. The plague (or Black Death), ravaged Europe over several centuries with each pandemic leaving millions of people dead. The cause of the contagion was not known, nor was there a cure, which added to the widespread desperation and fear. Venice was a major seaport, and each visitation of the plague (beginning in 1348) devastated the local population. In response, Venetians were among the first to establish the principles of quarantine and 'Lazarets' which we still use today. Plague outbreaks have occurred in Australia, notably in Sydney (1900-1925), and continue to flare up in poorer communities, most recently in Madagascar (2017). Antibiotics are the mainstay of treatment, but there are concerns regarding the emergence of resistant pathogenic strains of Yersinia pestis, and their potential use in bio-terrorism.

Origin of the Plague: Prospects of Ecological-Molecular-Genetic Synthesis

Abstract: Plague, which is infamous for three devastating pandemics, remains to this day one of the most dangerous human diseases. Its pathogen, the microbe Yersinia pestis, is a priority agent in the arsenal of possible bacteriological weapons, which requires increased attention to the preventive development of systems of biological (bacteriological) security. Deep knowledge of the natural processes that caused the emergence of the causative agent of plague in nature might contribute to it. In the problem of the origin of Y. pestis, there are currently two alternative approaches, molecular-genetic (MG) and ecological. MG data led to the innovative idea of the saltational transformation of a clone of the ancestral psychrophilic saprozoobiont pseudotuberculosis microbe Y. pseudotuberculosis O:1b into a population of the plague pathogen Y. pestis by means of horizontal transfer of two plague-specific virulence plasmids pFra and pPst from the external environment or from other bacteria and inactivation/deletion of genes that lost their functions in a fundamentally new habitat, the vole (Microtinae) populations in Asia. The ecological scenario is based on the Darwinian idea of the adaptogenesis of the plague microbe with the rapid “quantum” formation of its properties in the marmot- flea (Marmota sibirica and Oropsylla silantiewi) parasitic system under the conditions of the Central Asia psychroarid climate at the turn of the Pleistocene and Holocene periods. Three important factors of quantum speciation of the plague microbe were identified: marmot heterothermy during hibernation, an oxidative burst of macrophages in the body of repeatedly awakening hibernating marmots, and stress-induced muta-genesis of the evolving microbe due to the oxidative burst of macrophages. This paper argues the principle of complementarity between the environmental and MG approaches. The prospect of solving the problem of quantum speciation of the causative agent of plague and the development of tools and methods for treating and preventing this disease is seen in the synthesis of the ecological and MG approaches.

The ottomans during the global crises of cholera and plague: the view from iraq and the gulf

Abstract: The cholera and plague pandemics of the 19th and early 20h centuries shaped Ottoman state-building and expansionist efforts in Iraq and the Gulf in significant ways. For Ottoman officials, these pandemics brought attention to the possible role of Qajar and British subjects in spreading cholera and plague, as well as the relationship between Iraq's ecology and recurring outbreaks. These developments paved the way for the expansion of Ottoman health institutions, such as quarantines, and the emergence of new conceptions of public health in the region. Specifically, quarantines proved instrumental not only to the delineation of the Ottoman–Qajar border, but also to defining an emerging Ottoman role in shaping Gulf affairs. Moreover, the Ottomans’ use of quarantines and simultaneous efforts to develop sanitary policies informed by local ecological realities signal a localized and ad hoc approach to disease prevention that has been overlooked. Ultimately, this study demonstrates that environmental factors operating on global and regional scales were just as important as geopolitical factors in shaping Ottoman rule in Iraq and the Gulf during the late Ottoman period.