Showing papers on "Surprise published in 2014"

Surprise, surprise: Surprise, Surprise

Abstract: It is well established that CVD is a leading cause of death in diabetics. Certainly, the prevalence of CAD in diabetics is higher than in nondiabetics, as well as the risk of MI, and silent ischemia. Diabetes remains a major independent cardiovascular risk factor even when adjusting for age, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia as well documented in MRFIT. It is also well established that diabetics have worse outcomes in STEMI. Though diabetics having primary angioplasty have better outcomes than those receiving thrombolytics [1], they tend to have worse outcome than nondiabetics regardless of method of reperfusion [2]. In acute MI, diabetics are more often to have pulmonary edema and congestive heart failure despite similar infarct size and ejection fraction. In AIDA STEMI, patients with STEMI undergoing PCI, intracoronary Abciximab as compared to Intravenous Abciximab did not result in a difference in the combined endpoint (death, reinfarction, and CHF). However, it was associated with reduced rates of CHF as an individual outcome. AIDA STEMI further confirmed the safety of intracoronary Abciximab administration. In the CICERO trial, intracoronary Abciximab in STEMI undergoing primary PCI with aspiration, compared to intravenous administration does not improve myocardial reperfusion as assessed by STsegment resolution, it was associated with improved myocardial reperfusion as assessed by myocardial blush grade and a smaller enzymatic infarct size [3]. The data on thrombus aspiration during primary PCI has been conflicting. In some studies, it has been shown to be associated with improved myocardial perfusion and blush grade and ST segment resolution [4]. Furthermore, the improved myocardial blush grade was clearly associated with better clinical outcomes (lower rate of death and MACE) [4]. In other studies, it was not associated with increased myocardial salvage, on the contrary, it might have been associated with larger infarct size [5]. Manual thrombectomy did not reduce 30-day mortality, stent thrombosis, rate of stroke, or recurrent MI according to TASTE trial. INFUSE-AMI, 30-days outcomes showed small but significant reduction in infarct size assessed by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, using intracoronary abciximab versus no Abciximab in large anterior STEMI, but not with manual aspiration. Post-hoc analysis of INFUSE-AMI data (day 31–1 year), there was decreased CHF and hospitalization with CHF with aspiration. Though INFUSE-AMI was not powered for clinic endpoints, the post-hoc analysis certainly shows intriguing results. In INFUSE-AMI, diabetic patients were older than nondiabetics, had statistically significant larger BMI, more comorbidities (hypertension and hyperlipidemia). They were more likely to present later than nondiabetic from symptoms onset. Diabetics had more extensive disease in the infarct related vessel. Diabetics had similar rates of restoring coronary blood flow (TIMI flow grade, myocardial blush grade) to nondiabetics, as well as similar infarct reperfusion success (infarct size and EF by cMRI). The data might have been off set by the fact that less diabetic versus nondiabetics had cMRI to assess the infarct size and reperfusion compared to nondiabetic (66.6% vs. 86.5%, P 5 0.007). It is unclear as to why diabetics had less cMRI (e.g., severe kidney disease, MRI noncompatible devices such as ICDs suggestive of poor EF and higher risk patient population to start with). We do not know the infarct size in these diabetic patients without cMRI and hence we do not know how the data could have been affected, especially in a sample size. Interestingly, diabetics had more MACCE (death, reinfarction, ischemia-driven TVR, and stroke). This suggests that there is more to MACCE than just reperfusion success. It certainly raises the possibility that the higher risk profile of diabetic patients (i.e., age, higher BMI, HTN, and multiple lesions) could play an important role in outcomes of PCI in STEMI more than just adequate perfusion.

In Search of Phronesis: Leadership and the Art of Judgment

Abstract: We explore the process through which people in organizations, especially those in leadership positions, in circumstances marked by ambiguity, surprise, and conflicting values, come to, or arrive at, judgment. Briefly reviewing the (somewhat limited) literature on judgment in management studies, we conclude that its mainly rationalist orientation prevents us (scholars and practitioners alike) from properly grasping important features of the hermeneutical–developmental process involved in coming to a judgment. In particular, the role of emotions, moral agency, language use, and, especially, the selective and integrative nature of perceptual processes, are far too easily ignored. We make the case for a particular notion of judgment understood as Aristotelian “phronesis” (practical wisdom). Phronetic leaders, we argue, are people who, in their search for a way out of their difficulties, have developed a refined capacity to intuitively grasp salient features of ambiguous situations and to constitute a “landscape” of possible paths of response, while driven by the pursuit of the notion of the common good. We seek to shed light on how this is accomplished, by drawing on neo-Aristotelian, phenomenological, and Wittgensteinian philosophy.

The Attribution Approach to Emotion and Motivation: History, Hypotheses, Home Runs, Headaches/Heartaches

Abstract: In this article the history of the attribution approach to emotion and motivation is reviewed. Early motivation theorists incorporated emotion within the pleasure/pain principle but they did not recognize specific emotions. This changed when Atkinson introduced his theory of achievement motivation, which argued that achievement strivings are determined by the anticipated emotions of pride and shame. Attribution theorists then suggested many other emotional reactions to success and failure that are determined by the perceived causes of achievement outcomes and the shared characteristics or dimensions of causality. The article outlines the hypothesized dimensional antecedents of a number of self- and other-directed achievement-related emotions following success (admiration, apprehension, confidence, disliking, envy, gratitude, liking, pride, and surprise) and failure (anger, guilt, helplessness, hope, hopelessness, pity, regret, Schadenfreude, scorn, shame, surprise, and sympathy). Motivational consequences...

EMOVO Corpus: an Italian Emotional Speech Database

Abstract: This article describes the first emotional corpus, named EMOVO, applicable to Italian language,. It is a database built from the voices of up to 6 actors who played 14 sentences simulating 6 emotional states (disgust, fear, anger, joy, surprise, sadness) plus the neutral state. These emotions are the well-known Big Six found in most of the literature related to emotional speech. The recordings were made with professional equipment in the Fondazione Ugo Bordoni laboratories. The paper also describes a subjective validation test of the corpus, based on emotion-discrimination of two sentences carried out by two different groups of 24 listeners. The test was successful because it yielded an overall recognition accuracy of 80%. It is observed that emotions less easy to recognize are joy and disgust, whereas the most easy to detect are anger, sadness and the neutral state.

Exploring the possibilities for causal explanation in interpretive research

Abstract: This paper suggests how the contemporary theory of causality, based on the notions of counterfactuality and contrastive thinking, offers helpful direction on how to generate plausible causal arguments in interpretive research. For an interpretive researcher, this opens a route from rich emic accounts to thick explanations; however, only if he/she so wishes and the research question so requires. Perhaps with some surprise, causality can be included in interpretive research framings without compromising the unique features of such research – actually by even building on some of its strongholds. Examples from interpretive management accounting research will illustrate the message of the paper.

Pupil dilation signals uncertainty and surprise in a learning gambling task.

Abstract: Pupil dilation under constant illumination is a physiological marker where modulation is related to several cognitive functions involved in daily decision making. There is evidence for a role of pupil dilation change during decision-making tasks associated with uncertainty, reward-prediction errors and surprise. However, while some work suggests that pupil dilation is mainly modulated by reward predictions, others point out that this marker is related to uncertainty signaling and surprise. Supporting the latter hypothesis, the neural substrate of this marker is related to noradrenaline (NA) activity which has been also related to uncertainty signaling. In this work we aimed to test whether pupil dilation is a marker for uncertainty and surprise in a learning task. We recorded pupil dilation responses in 10 participants performing the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a decision-making task that requires learning and constant monitoring of outcomes' feedback, which are important variables within the traditional study of human decision making. Results showed that pupil dilation changes were modulated by learned uncertainty and surprise regardless of feedback magnitudes. Interestingly, greater pupil dilation changes were found during positive feedback (PF) presentation when there was lower uncertainty about a future negative feedback (NF); and by surprise during NF presentation. These results support the hypothesis that pupil dilation is a marker of learned uncertainty, and may be used as a marker of NA activity facing unfamiliar situations in humans.

Curiosity, Creativity, and Surprise as Analytic Tools: Grounded Theory Method

Abstract: Grounded Theory Method offers a rigorous way to explore a domain, with an emphasis on discovering new insights, testing those insights, and building partial understandings into a broader theory of the domain. It begins with observations of a phenomenon for which no theory yet exists. Through layered coding of these observations and continual reexamination of the data, a theory emerges.

Confusion of fear and surprise: a test of the perceptual-attentional limitation hypothesis with eye movement monitoring

Abstract: Of the basic emotional facial expressions, fear is typically less accurately recognised as a result of being confused with surprise. According to the perceptual-attentional limitation hypothesis, the difficulty in recognising fear could be attributed to the similar visual configuration with surprise. In effect, they share more muscle movements than they possess distinctive ones. The main goal of the current study was to test the perceptual-attentional limitation hypothesis in the recognition of fear and surprise using eye movement recording and by manipulating the distinctiveness between expressions. Results revealed that when the brow lowerer is the only distinctive feature between expressions, accuracy is lower, participants spend more time looking at stimuli and they make more comparisons between expressions than when stimuli include the lip stretcher. These results not only support the perceptual-attentional limitation hypothesis but extend its definition by suggesting that it is not solely the number of distinctive features that is important but also their qualitative value.

A world full of surprises: bayesian theory of surprise to quantify degrees of uncertainty

Abstract: In the specific area of Software Engineering (SE) for self-adaptive systems (SASs) there is a growing research awareness about the synergy between SE and Artificial Intelligence (AI). However, just few significant results have been published so far. In this paper, we propose a novel and formal Bayesian definition of surprise as the basis for quantitative analysis to measure degrees of uncertainty and deviations of self-adaptive systems from normal behavior. A surprise measures how observed data affects the models or assumptions of the world during runtime. The key idea is that a "surprising'' event can be defined as one that causes a large divergence between the belief distributions prior to and posterior to the event occurring. In such a case the system may decide either to adapt accordingly or to flag that an abnormal situation is happening. In this paper, we discuss possible applications of Bayesian theory of surprise for the case of self-adaptive systems using Bayesian dynamic decision networks.

Human Amygdala Response to Dynamic Facial Expressions of Positive and Negative Surprise

Abstract: Although brain imaging evidence accumulates to suggest that the amygdala plays a key role in the processing of novel stimuli, only little is known about its role in processing expressed novelty conveyed by surprised faces, and even less about possible interactive encoding of novelty and valence. Those investigations that have already probed human amygdala involvement in the processing of surprised facial expressions either used static pictures displaying negative surprise (as contained in fear) or "neutral" surprise, and manipulated valence by contextually priming or subjectively associating static surprise with either negative or positive information. Therefore, it still remains unresolved how the human amygdala differentially processes dynamic surprised facial expressions displaying either positive or negative surprise. Here, we created new artificial dynamic 3-dimensional facial expressions conveying surprise with an intrinsic positive (wonderment) or negative (fear) connotation, but also intrinsic positive (joy) or negative (anxiety) emotions not containing any surprise, in addition to neutral facial displays either containing ("typical surprise" expression) or not containing ("neutral") surprise. Results showed heightened amygdala activity to faces containing positive (vs. negative) surprise, which may either correspond to a specific wonderment effect as such, or to the computation of a negative expected value prediction error. Findings are discussed in the light of data obtained from a closely matched nonsocial lottery task, which revealed overlapping activity within the left amygdala to unexpected positive outcomes.

Startle and Surprise on the Flight Deck: Similarities, Differences, and Prevalence

Abstract: Startle and surprise are often cited as potentially contributing factors to aircraft incidents due to their possible negative effects on flightcrew performance. In this paper, we provide definitions of startle and surprise with the goal of delineating their differences. In the past, these terms have often been used interchangeably; however, there are distinctive conceptual, behavioral, and physiological differences between the startle reflex and the surprise emotion. Furthermore, we investigated the prevale nce of startle and surprise on the flight deck by examining voluntary incident reports in the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) and found surprise to be more prevalent than startle. Implications of these findings and limitations of our initial exploratory analysis are discussed.

The role of surprise: Understanding overreaction and underreaction to unanticipated events using in-play soccer betting market

Abstract: Previous research in finance has found evidences of both overreaction and underreaction to unanticipated events, but has yet to explain why investors overreact to certain events while underreacting to others. In this paper, we hypothesize that while market participants generally underreact to new events due to conservatism, the extent of underreaction is moderated by “surprise,” thus causing market participants to overreact to events that are highly surprising. We test our hypothesis using data from an in-play soccer betting market, where new events (goals) are clearly and exogenously defined, and the degree of “surprise” can be directly quantified (goals scored by underdogs are more surprising). We provide both statistical and economic evidences in support of our hypothesis.

A Computational Model of Narrative Generation for Surprise Arousal

Abstract: This paper describes our effort for a planning-based computational model of narrative generation that is designed to elicit surprise in the reader's mind, making use of two temporal narrative devices: flashback and foreshadowing. In our computational model, flashback provides a backstory to explain what causes a surprising outcome, while foreshadowing gives hints about the surprise before it occurs. Here, we present Prevoyant, a planning-based computational model of surprise arousal in narrative generation, and analyze the effectiveness of Prevoyant. The work here also presents a methodology to evaluate surprise in narrative generation using a planning-based approach based on the cognitive model of surprise causes. The results of the experiments that we conducted show strong support that Prevoyant effectively generates a discourse structure for surprise arousal in narrative.

Children's Ability to Recognize Emotions From Partial and Complete Facial Expressions

Abstract: The authors investigated children's ability to recognize emotions from the information available in the lower, middle, or upper face. School-age children were shown partial or complete facial expressions and asked to say whether they corresponded to a given emotion (anger, fear, surprise, or disgust). The results indicate that 5-year-olds were able to recognize fear, anger, and surprise from partial facial expressions. Fear was better recognized from the information located in the upper face than those located in the lower face. A similar pattern of results was found for anger, but only in girls. Recognition improved between 5 and 10 years old for surprise and anger, but not for fear and disgust.

What to expect when you're expecting: The role of unexpectedness in computationally evaluating creativity.

Abstract: Novelty, surprise and transformation of the domain have each been raised – alone or in combination – as accompaniments to value in the determination of creativity. Spirited debate has surrounded the role of each factor and their relationships to each other. This paper suggests a way by which these three notions can be compared and contrasted within a single conceptual framework, by describing each as a kind of unexpectedness. Using this framing we argue that current computational models of novelty, concerned primarily with the originality of an artefact, are insufficiently broad to capture creativity, and that other kinds of expectation – whatever the terminology used to refer to them – should also be considered. We develop a typology of expectations relevant to computational creativity evaluation and, through it describe a series of situations where expectations would be essential to the characterisation of creativity.

Learning unknown event models

Abstract: Agents with incomplete environment models are likely to be surprised, and this represents an opportunity to learn. We investigate approaches for situated agents to detect surprises, discriminate among different forms of surprise, and hypothesize new models for the unknown events that surprised them. We instantiate these approaches in a new goal reasoning agent (named FOOLMETWICE), investigate its performance in simulation studies, and report that it produces plans with significantly reduced execution cost in comparison to not learning models for surprising events.

Claiming Society for God: Religious Movements and Social Welfare

Abstract: This book won a gold medal in the Religion category at the 2013 Independent Publisher Book Awards, but I was not aware of this while I was reading it. Nevertheless, the award came as no surprise to...

Patient's rationale: Patient Knowledge retrieval from health forums

Abstract: Online health forums are areas of exchange where patients, on condition of anonymity, can speak freely on their personal experiences. These resources are a gold mine for health professionals—giving them access to patient to patient, patient to health professional and even health professional to health professional exchanges. In this study, we used text mining techniques to analyse health forums in order to extract emotions (e.g., joy, anger, surprise, etc.) expressed by patients. After a study of real messages, we demonstrate the difficulty of manual annotation due to the low level of agreement between humans. We propose a method to identify the polarity of a message and extract one or several emotions. This method was validated on a substantial real dataset.

Causality in the context of analytical models and numerical experiments

Abstract: Intuition tends to guide model formulation, as it is generally impossible to consider all dimensions of a problem. The ability to surprise, heightening the focus on paradox and the contradiction of reality, is therefore more useful than a literal representation of reality. While numerical experiments are useful in exploring patterns not well suited to analytic approaches, features of the model that underlies the experiment determines the experiments’ ability to provide insight and offer surprise.

The Surprised Loser The Role of Electoral Expectations and News Media Exposure in Satisfaction with Democracy

Abstract: On Election Night 2012, the Fox News Channel projected U.S. President Barack Obama had won Ohio-and thus re-election-yet the cable news network had a problem. Karl Rove disagreed. Rove, a powerful Republican and Fox pundit, criticized the network's call as "premature" and put the Fox news anchors in an awkward position. On one side stood a leading political strategist who insisted Republican Party nominee Mitt Romney remained a viable candidate, while on the other side stood the network's own analysts who projected they were "99.9%" certain of the call. On air, Rove continued to disagree.1Rove was wrong, but he was not alone. When it comes to predicting a winner, people draw heavily on their own preferences. This preference-expectation link, called wishful thinking, is a robust cognitive and motivational bias found in domains ranging from sports to politics and spanning different countries.2 Put simply, people tend to predict their preferred party or candidate will be victorious, a biased perception so stubborn it often continues even in the face of correcting information. The focus here is not merely on a theoretically interesting effect, but rather on its contribution to our understanding of an unrelated, but long-running, body of scholarly work that posits a thriving democracy hinges not on the electoral winners but, rather, lies "in the hands of the losers."3 While scholars have identified differences between electoral winners and losers in their trust and satisfaction with democracy, they have been less successful in identifying the underlying individual-level causes of such gaps.4 Analyses below will examine a previously unexplored factor of losing, the surprised loser. The use of "surprised" in this instance signifies respondents who engaged in wishful thinking by expecting their losing candidate to win, as opposed to fellow supporters unsurprised by the election outcome. In addition, the role of exposure to news media, theoretically expected to improve knowledge about a campaign, is explored in two ways. First, while general news exposure should reduce wishful thinking and lead to less of a "surprise" in the electoral outcome, it is argued that exposure to partisan news media favorable to the losing candidate will actually increase this surprise and, as a consequence, result in even more negative perceptions of government and democracy.Literature ReviewWinners and LosersEveryone loves a winner, so goes the old saying, and electoral losers received little scholarly attention until 1983 when Riker subjected them to one of the earliest systematic analyses. He wrote,The dynamics of politics is in the hands of the losers. It is they who decide when and how and whether to fight on. Winners have won and do not immediately need to change things. But losers have nothing and gain nothing unless they continue to try to bring about new political situations.5In their follow-up, comprehensive analysis across democracies, Losers' Consent, Anderson and his colleagues echoed Riker, arguing that winning and losing are fundamental to understanding how people construct their political worlds and, more broadly, how their acceptance or rejection can influence the levels of support in the legitimacy of major democratic institutions.6 Indeed, the authors posit that "to say the functioning and the maintenance of democratic polities are intimately linked with what and how citizens think about democratic governance is perilously close to stating a tautology."7 This view flows naturally from the classic work of Easton, who positioned democratic legitimacy as resting on the extent to which people rely on their government to act appropriately in most instances.8 Studies in this tradition typically focus on either a macro or micro approach. At the macro level, research has found winner-loser gaps to be a function of differences between mature and emerging democracies,9 between elections that were close versus those that were not close,10 and whether analysis includes both presidential and congressional elections. …

Theory of mind in the Mod game: An agent-based model of strategic reasoning

Abstract: When people engage in social interactions, they often rely on their theory of mind, their ability to reason about unobservable mental content of others such as beliefs, goals, and intentions. This ability allows them to both understand why others behave the way they do as well as predict future behaviour. People can also make use of higher-order theory of mind by applying theory of mind recursively, and reason about the way others make use of theory of mind such as in the sentence "Alice believes that Bob does not know about the surprise party". In this paper, we use agent-based models to describe human behaviour in an n-player extension of rock-paper-scissors called the Mod game. In previous work, we have shown how in similar competitive settings, the ability to make use of higher orders of theory of mind can be beneficial. We find that characteristic cyclic behaviour in the choices of participants that contradicts equilibrium predictions from classical game theory can be explained through the application of higher orders of theory of mind. Our results suggest that participants engage in higher orders of theory of mind reasoning in repeated play of the Mod game than previously reported in normal-form games and in repeated rock-paper-scissors games.

Advertising Creativity – The Right Balance between Surprise, Medium and Message Relevance

Abstract: Nowadays, alternative advertising is driving not only a new perspective, but also key challenges for marketers. There is growing evidence that creativity has become many-faceted over time. Considering the medium as a contextual cue, the current study investigates the role of creativity in the new advertising formats among university students. Therefore, the purpose of the present paper is to identify the effectiveness of non-traditional advertisements in generating consumers’ favorable attitude and credibility toward the brand and the way it influences consumer behavior. The findings suggest that the creative change of the context could be a solution to consumers’ negative perceptions and avoidance caused by traditional media.

Language Technologies for Suicide Prevention in Social Media

Abstract: At present, the suicide phenomenon is raising, having a relevant impact on our society. Each year about one million people die as a result of suicidal behavior becoming an economic, social and human problem. On the other hand, the use of Social Media as a means of communication is becoming extremely popular, through which their emotional states and impressions are exchanged. Therefore, it is no surprise that more and more people with depression publish their suicide notes in these communication channels. In this context, Information Technologies and Communications and, more specifically, Language Technologies play an important role in the early detection of the depression, their causes and their terrible consequences. Based on these considerations, it is mandatory to provide societal, environmentally approaches and solutions to tackle these societal challenges. This work pretends to be an exhaustive survey of the different researches in this scope, in order to explain which methodologies, technologies and resources are used in the detection of mental problems by means of the Social Media analysis as well as to re-veal their deficiencies.

Children’s understanding of linguistic expressions of certainty and evidentiality

Abstract: Informants are not always trustworthy or knowledgeable. Therefore, it is no surprise that every language has means to indicate how the speaker acquired a piece of information, as well as means to indicate how certain the speaker is about the information he is describing. The former are often called expressions of evidentiality and the latter are called expressions of certainty. Currently, however, little is known about how and when children acquire those expressions, and how acquisition of those expressions interacts with conceptual understanding of information source and trustworthiness of informants. The aim of this chapter is to shed some light on the issues by looking into cross-linguistic differences and similarities in acquisition of grammaticalized expressions of certainty and evidentiality.

When Will Little Red Riding Hood Become Scared? Children's Attribution of Mental States to a Story Character

Abstract: As children listen to a simple action-based narrative, they construct a dynamic representation of the protagonist's movements, visual perspective, and goal-directed thoughts. We examined children's representations of more complex narratives in which the protagonist will encounter an unexpected outcome upon reaching his or her goal. Three studies involving 105 children between 3 and 6 years of age showed that children shifted in the mental states they attributed depending on the distance of the protagonist from the unexpected outcome. Even though children consistently recognized that the protagonist did not know about the surprise at any point, they increasingly attributed feelings and thoughts consistent with the surprise. The studies highlight the degree to which children's mental state attributions are dynamic rather than fixed by their current theory of mind.

Surprise Beyond Prediction Error

Abstract: Surprise drives learning. Various neural “prediction error” signals are believed to underpin surprise-based reinforcement learning. Here, we report a surprise signal that reflects reinforcement learning but is neither un/signed reward prediction error (RPE) nor un/signed state prediction error (SPE). To exclude these alternatives, we measured surprise responses in the absence of RPE and accounted for a host of potential SPE confounds. This new surprise signal was evident in ventral striatum, primary sensory cortex, frontal poles, and amygdala. We interpret these findings via a normative model of surprise.