International Food Policy Research Institute

About: International Food Policy Research Institute is a nonprofit organization based out in Washington D.C., District of Columbia, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Agriculture & Food security. The organization has 1217 authors who have published 4952 publications receiving 218436 citations.

Estimating and understanding crop yields with explainable deep learning in the Indian Wheat Belt

Abstract: Forecasting crop yields is becoming increasingly important under the current context inwhich food security needs to be ensured despite the challenges brought by climate change, an expandingworld population accompanied by rising incomes, increasing soil erosion, and decreasingwater resources. Temperature, radiation, water availability and other environmental conditions influence crop growth, development, andfinal grain yield in a complex nonlinearmanner.Machine learning (ML) techniques, and deep learning (DL)methods in particular, can account for such nonlinear relations between yield and its covariates. However, they typically lack transparency and interpretability, since theway the predictions are derived is not directly evident. Yet, in the context of yield forecasting, understandingwhich are the underlying factors behind both a predicted loss or gain is of great relevance. Here, we explore how to benefit from the increased predictive performance ofDLmethods whilemaintaining the ability to interpret how themodels achieve their results. To do so, we applied a deep neural network tomultivariate time series of vegetation andmeteorological data to estimate the wheat yield in the IndianWheat Belt. Then, we visualized and analyzed the features and yield drivers learned by themodel with the use of regression activationmaps. TheDLmodel outperformed other testedmodels (ridge regression and random forest) and facilitated the interpretation of variables and processes that lead to yield variability. The learned features weremostly related to the length of the growing season, and temperature and light conditions during this time. For example, our results showed that high yields in 2012were associatedwith low temperatures accompanied by sunny conditions during the growing period. The proposedmethodology can be used for other crops and regions in order to facilitate application ofDLmodels in agriculture.

Using Stated Preferences and Beliefs to Identify the Impact of Risk on Poor Households

Abstract: Whilst the importance of uncertainty in shaping economic behaviour of poor households is widely acknowledged, empirically identifying the impact of risk is difficult. By using data on risk preferences and perceptions of risk collected through hypothetical questions in combination with more traditional measures of a household's ability to deal with risk, this article identifies the impact of risk on production decisions. It shows both that data on stated preferences and beliefs can be usefully utilised to explain household behaviour, and that risk has a significant impact on the production decisions of poor households.

The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Micronutrients Project: Justification and Objectives:

Abstract: The general objective of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Micronutrients Project is to assemble the package of tools that plant breeders will need to produce mi...

Why projections on China’s future food supply and demand differ

Abstract: This article analyses the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand and trade. Projections vary greatly, from China being self-sufficient in grain to being a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences stem mainly from the approaches chosen to model China's grain production and, in particular, the combined effects of land decline and yield growth. The article also points out improvements needed in future work on modelling China's grain economy, which include accounting for the links between agriculture and other sectors, technical change in the livestock industry and infrastructure constraints on grain imports.

Choice Experiments in Developing Countries: Implementation, Challenges and Policy Implications

Abstract: Contents: Foreword 1. Introduction: The Roles and Significance of Choice Experiments in Developing Country Contexts Jeff Bennett and Ekin Birol PART I: USING CHOICE EXPERIMENTS TO INVESTIGATE ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TRADE-OFFS 2. A Choice Experiment of Human - Elephant Conflict Resolution in Sri Lanka Roy Brouwer, Wolfgang Haider, Lokugam Gunaratne and Ben Beardmore 3. Using Choice Experiments to Estimate Wetland Values in Viet Nam: Implementation and Practical Issues Thang Nam Do and Jeff Bennett 4. Fishing Permit Price and Wetland Conservation: A Choice Experiment on the Value of Improved Environmental Quality of Lake Awassa, Ethiopia Girma G. Selassie and Yiannis Kountouris 5. Researcher-Selected versus Respondent-Selected Attributes: Improved Coastal Water Quality in Tobago Nesha Beharry-Borg and Riccardo Scarpa PART II: USING CHOICE EXPERIMENTS TO INVESTIGATE ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TRADE-OFFS: THE CASE OF CHINA'S SLOPING LAND CONVERSION PROGRAMME 6. Estimating the Non-market Environmental Benefits of Land Use Change in China Xuehong Wang, Jeff Bennett, Chen Xie and Zhitao Zhang 7. Assessing the Sustainability of the Sloping Land Conversion Programme: A Choice Experiment Approach Pauline Grosjean, Andreas Kontoleon and Shiqiu Zhang PART III: USING CHOICE EXPERIMENTS TO ESTIMATE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES' VALUATION OF UNIQUE ECOSYSTEMS 8. Non-use Values of Ecosystems Dependent on the Indus River, Pakistan: A Spatially Explicit, Multi-ecosystem Choice Experiment Ali Dehlavi, Ben Groom, Babar Naseem Khan and Amna Shahab 9. Ecosystem Service Valuation of Ruil (Nothofagus Alessandrii) Forests in Central Chile: An Application of the Choice Experiment Method Pablo Villalobos and Carlos Huenchuleo PART IV: USING CHOICE EXPERIMENTS TO INFORM EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT PROVISION OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE GOODS AND SERVICES 10. Informing Efficient Solid Waste Management to Improve Local Environmental Quality and Public Health in West Bengal, India Sukanya Das, Ekin Birol and Rabindra N. Bhattacharya 11. Farmers' Choice between Public Goods and Agricultural Extension Packages in Ethiopia: A Stated Preference Analysis Alemu Mekonnen, Mahmud Yesuf, Fredrik Carlsson and Gunnar Kohlin 12. Valuing Preferences for Ecotourism in the Phnom Prich Wildlife Sanctuary, Cambodia Ou Ratanak and Mitsuyasu Yabe PART V: USING CHOICE EXPERIMENTS TO INFORM THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AND FOOD INDUSTRY 13. Farmer Preferences for Bt Maize, Seed Information and Credit in the Philippines Jose Yorobe Jr, Ekin Birol and Melinda Smale 14. Using Choice Experiments to Investigate Preferences for Cattle Traits in Kenya Eric Ruto and Riccardo Scarpa 15. Developing Country Consumers' Demand for Food Safety and Quality: Is Mumbai Ready for Certified and Organic Fruits? Devesh Roy, Ekin Birol, Katharina Deffner and Bhushana Karandikar 16. Rural Consumers' Preferences for Banana Attributes in Uganda: Is There a Market for GM Staples? Enoch Kikulwe, Ekin Birol, Jose Falck-Zepeda and Justus Wesseler 17. Concluding Remarks and Recommendations for Implementing Choice Experiments in Developing Countries Ekin Birol and Jeff Bennett Index