Journal ArticleDOI
Seasonal forecasting for decision support in marine fisheries and aquaculture
TLDR
The use of seasonal forecasts in supporting effective marine management may also represent a useful stepping stone to improved decision-making and industry resilience at longer timescales as mentioned in this paper, and thus allow improved decision making Forecasts based on dynamic ocean models are now possible and offer improved performance relative to statistical forecasts, particularly given baseline shifts in the environment as a result of climate change.Abstract:
The production of marine protein from fishing and aquaculture is influenced by environmental conditions Ocean temperature, for example, can change the growth rate of cultured animals, or the distribution of wild stocks In turn these impacts may require changes in fishing or farming practices In addition to short-term environmental fluctuations, long-term climate-related trends are also resulting in new conditions, necessitating adjustment in fishing, farming and management approaches Longer-term climate forecasts, however, are seen as less relevant by many in the seafood sector owing to more immediate concerns Seasonal forecasts provide insight into upcoming environmental conditions, and thus allow improved decision making Forecasts based on dynamic ocean models are now possible and offer improved performance relative to statistical forecasts, particularly given baseline shifts in the environment as a result of climate change Seasonal forecasting is being used in marine farming and fishing operations in Australia, including wild tuna and farmed salmon and prawns, to reduce uncertainty and manage business risks Forecast variables include water temperature, rainfall and air temperature, and are considered useful up to approximately 4 months into the future, depending on the region and season of interest Species-specific habitat forecasts can also be made by combining these environment forecasts with biological habitat preference data Seasonal forecasts are useful when a range of options are available for implementation in response to the forecasts The use of seasonal forecasts in supporting effective marine management may also represent a useful stepping stone to improved decision making and industry resilience at longer timescalesread more
Citations
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Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges
Michael Dietze,Andrew M. Fox,Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson,Julio L. Betancourt,Mevin B. Hooten,Catherine S. Jarnevich,Timothy H. Keitt,Melissa A. Kenney,Christine Laney,Laurel G. Larsen,Henry W. Loescher,Henry W. Loescher,Claire Lunch,Bryan C. Pijanowski,James T. Randerson,Emily K. Read,Andrew T. Tredennick,Rodrigo Vargas,Kathleen C. Weathers,Ethan P. White +19 more
TL;DR: The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.
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Mixed responses of tropical Pacific fisheries and aquaculture to climate change : supplementary material
Johann D. Bell,Alexandre Ganachaud,P.C. Gerhrke,Shane P. Griffiths,Alistair J. Hobday,Ove Hoegh-Guldberg,Johanna E. Johnson,Robert Le Borgne,Patrick Lehodey,Janice M. Lough,Richard J. Matear,Timothy D. Pickering,Pratchett,Alex Sen Gupta,Inna Senina,Michelle Waycott +15 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors report how changes to the atmosphere-ocean are likely to affect the food webs, habitats and stocks underpinning fisheries and aquaculture across the region.
Journal ArticleDOI
Dynamic Ocean Management: Identifying the Critical Ingredients of Dynamic Approaches to Ocean Resource Management
Rebecca L. Lewison,Alistair J. Hobday,Sara M. Maxwell,Elliott L. Hazen,Jason R. Hartog,Daniel C. Dunn,Dana K. Briscoe,Sabrina Fossette,Catherine E. O'Keefe,Michele L. Barnes,Melanie Abecassis,Steven J. Bograd,N. David Bethoney,Helen Bailey,David N. Wiley,Samantha Andrews,Lucie Hazen,Larry B. Crowder +17 more
TL;DR: By addressing the variability inherent in ocean systems, dynamic ocean management represents a new approach to tackle the pressing challenges of managing a fluid and complex environment.
Journal ArticleDOI
Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts
Desiree Tommasi,Charles A. Stock,Alistair J. Hobday,Rick Methot,Isaac C. Kaplan,J. Paige Eveson,Kirstin K. Holsman,Timothy J. Miller,Sarah Gaichas,Marion Gehlen,Andrew J. Pershing,Gabriel A. Vecchi,Rym Msadek,Thomas L. Delworth,C. Mark Eakin,Melissa A. Haltuch,Roland Séférian,Claire M. Spillman,Jason R. Hartog,Samantha A. Siedlecki,Jameal F. Samhouri,Barbara A. Muhling,Rebecca G. Asch,Malin L. Pinsky,Vincent S. Saba,Sarah B. Kapnick,Carlos F. Gaitan,Ryan R. Rykaczewski,Michael A. Alexander,Yan Xue,Kathleen Pegion,Patrick D. Lynch,Mark R. Payne,Trond Kristiansen,Patrick Lehodey,Francisco E. Werner +35 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables, and describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months to decades.
Journal ArticleDOI
Keeping pace with marine heatwaves
Neil J. Holbrook,Neil J. Holbrook,A. Sen Gupta,Ecj Oliver,Alistair J. Hobday,Jessica A. Benthuysen,Hillary A. Scannell,Dan A. Smale,Thomas Wernberg,Thomas Wernberg +9 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore MHW predictability on short-term, interannual to decadal, and centennial timescales, focusing on the physical processes that offer prediction.
References
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