Showing papers on "Ice-albedo feedback published in 2011"

Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise

Abstract: The contribution to sea-level rise from mountain glaciers and ice caps has grown over the past decades. A projection of their melting during the twenty-first century based on temperature and precipitation projections from ten climate models suggests that by 2100 these glaciers will lose about 21% of their total global volume. The contribution to sea-level rise from mountain glaciers and ice caps has grown over the past decades. They are expected to remain an important component of eustatic sea-level rise for at least another century1,2, despite indications of accelerated wastage of the ice sheets3,4,5. However, it is difficult to project the future contribution of these small-scale glaciers to sea-level rise on a global scale. Here, we project their volume changes due to melt in response to transient, spatially differentiated twenty-first century projections of temperature and precipitation from ten global climate models. We conduct the simulations directly on the more than 120,000 glaciers now available in the World Glacier Inventory6, and upscale the changes to 19 regions that contain all mountain glaciers and ice caps in the world (excluding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets). According to our multi-model mean, sea-level rise from glacier wastage by 2100 will amount to 0.124±0.037 m, with the largest contribution from glaciers in Arctic Canada, Alaska and Antarctica. Total glacier volume will be reduced by 21±6%, but some regions are projected to lose up to 75% of their present ice volume. Ice losses on such a scale may have substantial impacts on regional hydrology and water availability7.

Radiative forcing and albedo feedback from the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere between 1979 and 2008

Abstract: The extent of snow cover and sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere has declined since 1979, suggesting a positive feedback of surface reflectivity on climate. A synthesis of a variety of remote sensing and field measurements suggests that this albedo feedback from the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere falls between 0.3 and 1.1 W m−2 K−1. The extent of snow cover1 and sea ice2 in the Northern Hemispherehas declined since 1979, coincident with hemispheric warming and indicative of a positive feedback of surface reflectivity on climate. This albedo feedback of snow on land has been quantified from observations at seasonal timescales3,4,5,6, and century-scale feedback has been assessed using climate models7,8,9,10. However, the total impact of the cryosphere on radiative forcing and albedo feedback has yet to be determined from measurements. Here we assess the influence of the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere on Earth’s radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere—termed cryosphere radiative forcing—by synthesizing a variety of remote sensing and field measurements. We estimate mean Northern Hemisphere forcing at −4.6 to −2.2 W m−2, with a peak in May of −9.0±2.7 W m−2. We find that cyrospheric cooling declined by 0.45 W m−2 from 1979 to 2008, with nearly equal contributions from changes in land snow cover and sea ice. On the basis of these observations, we conclude that the albedo feedback from the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere falls between 0.3 and 1.1 W m−2 K−1, substantially larger than comparable estimates obtained from 18 climate models.

Melt-induced speed-up of Greenland ice sheet offset by efficient subglacial drainage

Abstract: Fluctuations in surface melting are known to affect the speed of glaciers and ice sheets, but their impact on the Greenland ice sheet in a warming climate remains uncertain. Although some studies suggest that greater melting produces greater ice-sheet acceleration, others have identified a long-term decrease in Greenland's flow despite increased melting. Here we use satellite observations of ice motion recorded in a land-terminating sector of southwest Greenland to investigate the manner in which ice flow develops during years of markedly different melting. Although peak rates of ice speed-up are positively correlated with the degree of melting, mean summer flow rates are not, because glacier slowdown occurs, on average, when a critical run-off threshold of about 1.4 centimetres a day is exceeded. In contrast to the first half of summer, when flow is similar in all years, speed-up during the latter half is 62 ± 16 per cent less in warmer years. Consequently, in warmer years, the period of fast ice flow is three times shorter and, overall, summer ice flow is slower. This behaviour is at odds with that expected from basal lubrication alone. Instead, it mirrors that of mountain glaciers, where melt-induced acceleration of flow ceases during years of high melting once subglacial drainage becomes efficient. A model of ice-sheet flow that captures switching between cavity and channel drainage modes is consistent with the run-off threshold, fast-flow periods, and later-summer speeds we have observed. Simulations of the Greenland ice-sheet flow under climate warming scenarios should account for the dynamic evolution of subglacial drainage; a simple model of basal lubrication alone misses key aspects of the ice sheet's response to climate warming.

Inter‐annual to multi‐decadal Arctic sea ice extent trends in a warming world

Abstract: [1] A climate model (CCSM4) is used to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing on late 20th century and early 21st century Arctic sea ice extent trends. On all timescales examined (2–50+ years), the most extreme negative observed late 20th century trends cannot be explained by modeled natural variability alone. Modeled late 20th century ice extent loss also cannot be explained by natural causes alone, but the six available CCSM4 ensemble members exhibit a large spread in their late 20th century ice extent loss. Comparing trends from the CCSM4 ensemble to observed trends suggests that internal variability explains approximately half of the observed 1979–2005 September Arctic sea ice extent loss. In a warming world, CCSM4 shows that multi-decadal negative trends increase in frequency and magnitude, and that trend variability on 2–10 year timescales increases. Furthermore, when internal variability counteracts anthropogenic forcing, positive trends on 2–20 year timescales occur until the middle of the 21st century.

The role of albedo and accumulation in the 2010 melting record in Greenland

Abstract: Analyses of remote sensing data, surface observations and output from a regional atmosphere model point to new records in 2010 for surface melt and albedo, runoff, the number of days when bare ice is exposed and surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet, especially over its west and southwest regions. Early melt onset in spring, triggered by above-normal near-surface air temperatures, contributed to accelerated snowpack metamorphism and premature bare ice exposure, rapidly reducing the surface albedo. Warm conditions persisted through summer, with the positive albedo feedback mechanism being a major contributor to large negative surface mass balance anomalies. Summer snowfall was below average. This helped to maintain low albedo through the 2010 melting season, which also lasted longer than usual.

Understanding and Modelling Rapid Dynamic Changes of Tidewater Outlet Glaciers: Issues and Implications

Abstract: Recent dramatic acceleration, thinning and retreat of tidewater outlet glaciers in Greenland raises concern regarding their contribution to future sea-level rise. These dynamic changes seem to be parallel to oceanic and climatic warming but the linking mechanisms and forcings are poorly understood and, furthermore, large-scale ice sheet models are currently unable to realistically simulate such changes which provides a major limitation in our ability to predict dynamic mass losses. In this paper we apply a specifically designed numerical flowband model to Jakobshavn Isbrae (JIB), a major marine outlet glacier of the Greenland ice sheet, and we explore and discuss the basic concepts and emerging issues in our understanding and modelling ability of the dynamics of tidewater outlet glaciers. The modelling demonstrates that enhanced ocean melt is able to trigger the observed dynamic changes of JIB but it heavily relies on the feedback between calving and terminus retreat and therefore the loss of buttressing. Through the same feedback, other forcings such as reduced winter sea-ice duration can produce similar rapid retreat. This highlights the need for a robust representation of the calving process and for improvements in the understanding and implementation of forcings at the marine boundary in predictive ice sheet models. Furthermore, the modelling uncovers high sensitivity and rapid adjustment of marine outlet glaciers to perturbations at their marine boundary implying that care should be taken in interpreting or extrapolating such rapid dynamic changes as recently observed in Greenland.

The Jormungand global climate state and implications for Neoproterozoic glaciations

Abstract: [1] Geological and geochemical evidence can be interpreted as indicating strong hysteresis in global climate during the Neoproterozoic glacial events (∼630 Ma and ∼715 Ma). Standard climate theory only allows such strong hysteresis if global climate enters a fully‐glaciated “Snowball” state. However, the survival of photosynthetic, eukaryotic, marine species through these glaciations may indicate that there were large areas of open ocean. A previously‐proposed “Slushball” model for Neoproterozoic glaciations could easily explain the survival of these organisms because it has open ocean throughout the tropics, but there is only a small amount of hysteresis associated with the Slushball state. In this paper a new state of global climate, the “Jormungand” state, is proposed. In this state the ocean is very nearly globally ice‐covered, but a very small strip of the tropical ocean remains ice‐free. The low ice latitude of the Jormungand state is a consequence of the low albedo of snow‐free (bare) sea ice. If the ice latitude propagates into the subtropical desert zone, it can stabilize without collapsing to the equator because subtropical ice‐covered regions have a relatively low top‐of‐atmosphere albedo as a result of the exposure of bare sea ice and relatively lower cloud cover. Moreover, there is strong hysteresis associated with the Jormungand state as greenhouse gas levels are varied because of the high albedo contrast between regions of bare and snow covered sea ice. The Jormungand state is illustrated here in two different atmospheric global climate models and in the Budyko‐Sellers model. By offering a scenario that could explain both strong hysteresis in global climate and the survival of life, the Jormungand state represents a potential model for Neoproterozoic glaciations, although further study of this issue is needed.

Recovery mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice

Abstract: We examine the recovery of Arctic sea ice from prescribed ice-free summer conditions in simulations of 21st century climate in an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. We find that ice extent recovers typically within two years. The excess oceanic heat that had built up during the ice-free summer is rapidly returned to the atmosphere during the following autumn and winter, and then leaves the Arctic partly through increased longwave emission at the top of the atmosphere and partly through reduced atmospheric heat advection from lower latitudes. Oceanic heat transport does not contribute significantly to the loss of the excess heat. Our results suggest that anomalous loss of Arctic sea ice during a single summer is reversible, as the ice–albedo feedback is alleviated by large-scale recovery mechanisms. Hence, hysteretic threshold behavior (or a “tipping point”) is unlikely to occur during the decline of Arctic summer sea-ice cover in the 21st century.

IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic sea ice drift acceleration: Consequences in terms of projected sea ice thinning and decline

Abstract: [1] IPCC climate models underestimate the decrease of the Arctic sea ice extent. The recent Arctic sea ice decline is also characterized by a rapid thinning and by an increase of sea ice kinematics (velocities and deformation rates), with both processes being coupled through positive feedbacks. In this study we show that IPCC climate models underestimate the observed thinning trend by a factor of almost 4 on average and fail to capture the associated accelerated motion. The coupling between the ice state (thickness and concentration) and ice velocity is unexpectedly weak in most models. In particular, sea ice drifts faster during the months when it is thick and packed than when it is thin, contrary to what is observed; also models with larger long-term thinning trends do not show higher drift acceleration. This weak coupling behavior (1) suggests that the positive feedbacks mentioned above are underestimated and (2) can partly explain the models' underestimation of the recent sea ice area, thickness, and velocity trends. Due partly to this weak coupling, ice export does not play an important role in the simulated negative balance of Arctic sea ice mass between 1950 and 2050. If we assume a positive trend on ice speeds at straits equivalent to the one observed since 1979 within the Arctic basin, first-order estimations give shrinking and thinning trends that become significantly closer to the observations.

Solar partitioning in a changing Arctic sea-ice cover

Abstract: The summer extent of the Arctic sea-ice cover has decreased in recent decades and there have been alterations in the timing and duration of the summer melt season. These changes in ice conditions have affected the partitioning of solar radiation in the Arctic atmosphere-ice-ocean system. The impact of sea-ice changes on solar partitioning is examined on a pan-Arctic scale using a 25 km � 25 km Equal-Area Scalable Earth Grid for the years 1979-2007. Daily values of incident solar irradiance are obtained from NCEP reanalysis products adjusted by ERA-40, and ice concentrations are determined from passive microwave satellite data. The albedo of the ice is parameterized by a five-stage process that includes dry snow, melting snow, melt pond formation, melt pond evolution, and freeze-up. The timing of these stages is governed by the onset dates of summer melt and fall freeze-up, which are determined from satellite observations. Trends of solar heat input to the ice were mixed, with increases due to longer melt seasons and decreases due to reduced ice concentration. Results indicate a general trend of increasing solar heat input to the Arctic ice-ocean system due to declines in albedo induced by decreases in ice concentration and longer melt seasons. The evolution of sea-ice albedo, and hence the total solar heating of the ice-ocean system, is more sensitive to the date of melt onset than the date of fall freeze-up. The largest increases in total annual solar heat input from 1979 to 2007, averaging as much as 4% a -1 , occurred in the Chukchi Sea region. The contribution of solar heat to the ocean is increasing faster than the contribution to the ice due to the loss of sea ice.

Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice

Abstract: [1] The recent sharp decline in Arctic sea ice has triggered an increase in the interest of Arctic sea ice predictability, not least driven by the potential of significant human industrial activity in the region. In this study we quantify how long Arctic sea ice predictability is dominated by dependence on its initial conditions versus dependence on its secular decline in a state-of-the-art global circulation model (GCM) under a ‘perfect model’ assumption. We demonstrate initial-value predictability of pan-Arctic sea ice area is continuous for 1–2 years, after which predictability is intermittent in the 2–4 year range. Predictability of area at these longer lead times is associated with strong area-thickness coupling in the summer season. Initial-value predictability of pan-Arctic sea ice volume is significant continuously for 3–4 years, after which time predictability from secular trends dominates. Thus we conclude predictability of Arctic sea ice beyond 3 years is dominated by climate forcing rather than initial conditions. Additionally, we find that forecast of summer conditions are equally good from the previous September or January initial conditions.

The effect of sea ice loss on sea salt aerosol concentrations and the radiative balance in the Arctic

Abstract: . Understanding Arctic climate change requires knowledge of both the external and the local drivers of Arctic climate as well as local feedbacks within the system. An Arctic feedback mechanism relating changes in sea ice extent to an alteration of the emission of sea salt aerosol and the consequent change in radiative balance is examined. A set of idealized climate model simulations were performed to quantify the radiative effects of changes in sea salt aerosol emissions induced by prescribed changes in sea ice extent. The model was forced using sea ice concentrations consistent with present day conditions and projections of sea ice extent for 2100. Sea salt aerosol emissions increase in response to a decrease in sea ice, the model results showing an annual average increase in number emission over the polar cap (70–90° N) of 86 × 106 m−2 s−1 (mass emission increase of 23 μg m−2 s−1). This in turn leads to an increase in the natural aerosol optical depth of approximately 23%. In response to changes in aerosol optical depth, the natural component of the aerosol direct forcing over the Arctic polar cap is estimated to be between −0.2 and −0.4 W m−2 for the summer months, which results in a negative feedback on the system. The model predicts that the change in first indirect aerosol effect (cloud albedo effect) is approximately a factor of ten greater than the change in direct aerosol forcing although this result is highly uncertain due to the crude representation of Arctic clouds and aerosol-cloud interactions in the model. This study shows that both the natural aerosol direct and first indirect effects are strongly dependent on the surface albedo, highlighting the strong coupling between sea ice, aerosols, Arctic clouds and their radiative effects.

Ocean Heat Transport as a Cause for Model Uncertainty in Projected Arctic Warming

Abstract: The Arctic climate is governed by complex interactions and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere, ocean, and solar radiation. One of its characteristic features, the Arctic sea ice, is very vulnerable to anthropogenically caused warming. Production and melting of sea ice is influenced by several physical processes. The authors show that the northward ocean heat transport is an important factor in the simulation of the sea ice extent in the current general circulation models. Those models that transport more energy to the Arctic show a stronger future warming, in the Arctic as well as globally. Larger heat transport to the Arctic, in particular in the Barents Sea, reduces the sea ice cover in this area. More radiation is then absorbed during summer months and is radiated back to the atmosphere in winter months. This process leads to an increase in the surface temperature and therefore to a stronger polar amplification. The models that show a larger global warming agree better with the observe...

A new coupled ice sheet/climate model: description and sensitivity to model physics under Eemian, Last Glacial Maximum, late Holocene and modern climate conditions

Abstract: . The need to better understand long-term climate/ice sheet feedback loops is motivating efforts to couple ice sheet models into Earth System models which are capable of long-timescale simulations. In this paper we describe a coupled model that consists of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and the Pennsylvania State University Ice model (PSUI). The climate model generates a surface mass balance (SMB) field via a sub-gridded surface energy/moisture balance model that resolves narrow ice sheet ablation zones. The ice model returns revised elevation, surface albedo and ice area fields, plus coastal fluxes of heat and moisture. An arbitrary number of ice sheets can be simulated, each on their own high-resolution grid and each capable of synchronous or asynchronous coupling with the overlying climate model. The model is designed to conserve global heat and moisture. In the process of improving model performance we developed a procedure to account for modelled surface air temperature (SAT) biases within the energy/moisture balance surface model and improved the UVic ESCM snow surface scheme through addition of variable albedos and refreezing over the ice sheet. A number of simulations for late Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Eemian climate boundary conditions were carried out to explore the sensitivity of the coupled model and identify model configurations that best represented these climate states. The modelled SAT bias was found to play a significant role in long-term ice sheet evolution, as was the effect of refreezing meltwater and surface albedo. The bias-corrected model was able to reasonably capture important aspects of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, including modern SMB and ice distribution. The simulated northern Greenland ice sheet was found to be prone to ice margin retreat at radiative forcings corresponding closely to those of the Eemian or the present-day.

Changes in Arctic clouds during intervals of rapid sea ice loss

Abstract: We investigate the behavior of clouds during rapid sea ice loss events (RILEs) in the Arctic, as simulated by multiple ensemble projections of the 21st century in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). Trends in cloud properties and sea ice coverage during RILEs are compared with their secular trends between 2000 and 2049 during summer, autumn, and winter. The results suggest that clouds promote abrupt Arctic climate change during RILEs through increased (decreased) cloudiness in autumn (summer) relative to the changes over the first half of the 21st century. The trends in cloud characteristics (cloud amount, water content, and radiative forcing) during RILEs are most strongly and consistently an amplifying effect during autumn, the season in which RILEs account for the majority of the secular trends. The total cloud trends in every season are primarily due to low clouds, which show a more robust response than middle and high clouds across RILEs. Lead-lag correlations of monthly sea ice concentration and cloud cover during autumn reveal that the relationship between less ice and more clouds is enhanced during RILEs, but there is no evidence that either variable is leading the other. Given that Arctic cloud projections in CCSM3 are similar to those from other state-of-the-art GCMs and that observations show increased autumn cloudiness associated with the extreme 2007 and 2008 sea ice minima, this study suggests that the rapidly declining Arctic sea ice will be accentuated by changes in polar clouds.

Atmospheric inversion strength over polar oceans in winter regulated by sea ice

Abstract: Low-level temperature inversions are a common feature of the wintertime troposphere in the Arctic and Antarctic. Inversion strength plays an important role in regulating atmospheric processes including air pollution, ozone destruction, cloud formation, and negative longwave feedback mechanisms that shape polar climate response to anthropogenic forcing. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument provides reliable measures of spatial patterns in mean wintertime inversion strength when compared with available radiosonde observations and reanalysis products. Here, we examine the influence of sea ice concentration on inversion strength in the Arctic and Antarctic. Correlation of inversion strength with mean annual sea ice concentration, likely a surrogate for the effective thermal conductivity of the wintertime ice pack, yields strong, linear relationships in the Arctic (r = 0.88) and Antarctic (r = 0.86). We find a substantially greater (stronger) linear relationship between sea ice concentration and surface air temperature than with temperature at 850 hPa, lending credence to the idea that sea ice controls inversion strength through modulation of surface heat fluxes. As such, declines in sea ice in either hemisphere may imply weaker mean inversions in the future. Comparison of mean inversion strength in AIRS and global climate models (GCMs) suggests that many GCMs poorly characterize mean inversion strength at high latitudes.

The Effect of the Sea Ice Freshwater Flux on Southern Ocean Temperatures in CCSM3: Deep-Ocean Warming and Delayed Surface Warming

Abstract: This study explores the role of sea ice freshwater and salt fluxes in modulating twenty-first-century surface warming in the Southern Ocean via analysis of sensitivity experiments in the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3). In particular, the role of a change in these fluxes in causing surface cooling, expanding sea ice, and increasing deep oceanic storage of heat in the Southern Ocean is investigated. The results indicate that in response to the doubling of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere in CCSM3, net freshwater input from sea ice to the ocean increases south of 58°S (owing to less growth) and decreases from 48° to 58°S (owing to less melt). The freshwater source from changing precipitation in the model is considerably less than from sea ice south of 58°S, but it serves to compensate for the reduction in sea ice melt near the ice edge, leaving almost no net freshwater flux change between about 48° and 58°S. As a result, freshwater input principally from sea ice reduces ocean c...

Can crop albedo be increased through the modification of leaf trichomes, and could this cool regional climate?

Abstract: Managing the land surface to increase albedo to offset regional warming has received less attention than managing the land surface to sequester carbon. We test whether increasing agricultural albedo can cool regional climate. We first used the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0) coupled to the Community Land Model (CLM 3.0) to assess the broad climatic effects of a hypothetical implementation of a strategy in which the albedo of cropland regions is increased using high albedo crops. Simulations indicate that planting brighter crops can decrease summertime maximum daily 2 m air temperature by 0.25°C per 0.01 increase in surface albedo at high latitudes (>30°). However, planting brighter crops at low latitudes (<30°) may have negative repercussions including warming the land surface and decreasing precipitation, because increasing the land surface albedo tends to preferentially decrease latent heat fluxes to the atmosphere, which decreases cloud cover and rainfall. We then test a possible method for increasing crop albedo by measuring the range of albedo within 16 isolines of soybeans that differ only with trichome color, orientation, and density but find that such modifications had only minor impacts on leaf albedo. Increasing agricultural albedo may cool high latitude regional climate, but increasing plant albedo sufficiently to offset potential future warming will require larger changes to plant albedo than are currently available.

Estimating the global radiative impact of the sea ice–albedo feedback in the Arctic

Abstract: [1] A simple method for estimating the global radiative forcing caused by the sea ice–albedo feedback in the Arctic is presented. It is based on observations of cloud cover, sea ice concentration, and top-of-atmosphere broadband albedo. The method does not rely on any sort of climate model, making the assumptions and approximations clearly visible and understandable and allowing them to be easily changed. Results show that the globally and annually averaged radiative forcing caused by the observed loss of sea ice in the Arctic between 1979 and 2007 is approximately 0.1 W m−2; a complete removal of Arctic sea ice results in a forcing of about 0.7 W m−2, while a more realistic ice-free summer scenario (no ice for 1 month and decreased ice at all other times of the year) results in a forcing of about 0.3 W m−2, similar to present-day anthropogenic forcing caused by halocarbons. The potential for changes in cloud cover as a result of the changes in sea ice makes the evaluation of the actual forcing that may be realized quite uncertain since such changes could overwhelm the forcing caused by the sea ice loss itself, if the cloudiness increases in the summertime.

Consistent Changes in the Sea Ice Seasonal Cycle in Response to Global Warming

Abstract: The Northern Hemisphere sea ice cover has diminished rapidly in recent years and is projected to continue to diminish in the future. The year-to-year retreat of Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent is faster in summer thanwinter,whichhasbeenidentifiedasoneofthemoststrikingfeaturesof satellite observations aswellasof state-of-the-art climate model projections. This is typically understood to imply that the sea ice cover is most sensitive to climate forcing in summertime, and previous studies have explained this by calling on factors such as the surface albedo feedback. In the Southern Hemisphere, however, it is the wintertime sea ice extent that retreats fastest in climate model projections. Here, it is shown that the interhemispheric differences in the model projections can be attributed to differences in coastline geometry, which constrain where sea ice can occur. After accounting for coastline geometry, it is found that the sea ice changes simulated in both hemispheres in most climate models are consistent with sea ice retreat being fastest in winter in the absence of landmasses. These results demonstrate that, despite the widely differing rates of ice retreat among climate model projections, the seasonal structure of the sea ice retreat is robust among the models and is uniform in both hemispheres.

Bifurcations leading to summer Arctic sea ice loss

Abstract: [1] There is significant interest in whether there could be a bifurcation, sometimes referred to as a “tipping point,” associated with Arctic sea ice loss. A low-order model of Arctic sea ice has recently been proposed and used to argue that a bifurcation associated with summer sea ice loss (the transition from perennial to seasonal ice) is unlikely. Here bifurcations are investigated in a variation of this model that incorporates additional effects, including parameterizations of changes in clouds and heat transport as sea ice is lost. It is shown that bifurcations can separate perennially and seasonally ice-covered states in this model in a robust parameter regime, although smooth loss of summer sea ice is also possible. Hysteresis and jumps associated with bifurcations involving winter sea ice loss are larger than those associated with summer sea ice loss. Finally, in analogy with simulations in global climate models, the low-order model is integrated with time-varying greenhouse gas forcing in both the regime in which summer sea ice is lost via bifurcations and the regime in which it is not. The resulting time series are compared as a preliminary way of investigating ways in which these regimes could be distinguished from each other.

Terminating the Last Interglacial: The Role of Ice Sheet–Climate Feedbacks in a GCM Asynchronously Coupled to an Ice Sheet Model

Abstract: Climatic deterioration in northeastern Canada following the last interglacial resulted in the formation and abrupt expansion of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. However, the physical mechanisms leading to rapid ice sheet expansion are not well understood. Here, the authors report on experiments using an ice sheet model asynchronously coupled to a GCM to investigate the role of ice sheet–climate feedbacks in terminating the last interglacial period. In agreement with simpler models, the experiments indicate that a specific type of ice–albedo feedback, the small ice cap instability, is the dominant process controlling rapid expansion of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. As ice elevations increase in northeastern Canada, a stationary wave forms and strengthens over the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which acts to hinder further expansion of the ice margin and reduce the effect of the small ice cap instability. The sensitivity of these feedbacks to ice topography results in a reduction in simulated ice volume when the commun...

Climate change: Rethinking the sea-ice tipping point.

Abstract: Summer sea-ice extent in the Arctic has decreased greatly during recent decades. Simulations of twenty-first-century climate suggest that the ice can recover from artificially imposed ice-free summer conditions within a couple of years.

Cryosphere: Warmth from the deep

Abstract: Unusual wind patterns and the albedo feedback effect played crucial roles in the rapid reduction of Arctic sea-ice cover in recent years. Evidence is now building that a warmer ocean has also contributed to the thinning of Arctic ice.

The historical global sea-level budget

Abstract: We analyze the global sea-level budget since 1850. Good estimates of sea-level contributions from glaciers and small ice caps, the Greenland ice sheet and thermosteric sea level are available over this period, though considerable scope for controversy remains in all. Attempting to close the sea-level budget by adding the components results in a residual displaying a likely significant trend of � 0.37 mm a -1 from 1955 to 2005, which can, however, be reasonably closed using estimated melting from unsurveyed high-latitude small glaciers and ice caps. The sea-level budget from 1850 is estimated using modeled thermosteric sea level and inferences from a small number of mountain glaciers. This longer-term budget has a residual component that displays a rising trend likely associated with the end of the Little Ice Age, with much decadal-scale variability that is probably associated with variability in the global water cycle, ENSO and long-term volcanic impacts.

Sudden increase in Antarctic sea ice: Fact or artifact?

Abstract: [1] Three sea ice data sets commonly used for climate research display a large and abrupt increase in Antarctic sea ice area (SIA) in recent years. This unprecedented change of SIA is diagnosed to be primarily caused by an apparent sudden increase in sea ice concentrations within the ice pack, especially in the area of the most-concentrated ice (greater than 95% concentration). A series of alternative satellite-derived records do not display any abnormal sudden SIA changes, but do reveal substantial discrepancies between different satellite sensors and sea ice algorithms. Sea ice concentrations in the central ice pack and SIA values derived from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSRE) are consistently greater than those derived from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI). A switch in source data from the SSMI to AMSRE in mid-2009 explains most of the SIA increase in all three affected data sets. If uncorrected for, the discontinuity artificially exaggerates the winter Antarctic SIA increase (1979–2010) by more than a factor of 2 and the spring trend by almost a factor of 4. The discontinuity has a weaker influence on the summer and autumn SIA trends, on calculations of Antarctic sea ice extent, and in the Arctic.

A Low Order Theory of Arctic Sea Ice Stability

Abstract: We analyze the stability of a low-order coupled sea ice and climate model and extract the essential physics governing the time scales of response as a function of greenhouse gas forcing. Under present climate conditions the stability is controlled by longwave radiation driven heat conduction. However, as greenhouse gas forcing increases and the ice cover decays, the destabilizing influence of ice-albedo feedback acts on equal footing with longwave stabilization. Both are seasonally out of phase and as the system warms towards a seasonal ice state these effects, which underlie the bifurcations between climate states, combine exhibiting a "slowing down" to extend the intrinsic relaxation time scale from ~ 2 yr to 5 yr.

Entropy production and multiple equilibria: the case of the ice-albedo feedback

Abstract: Nonlinear feedbacks in the Earth System provide mechanisms that can prove very useful in understanding complex dynamics with relatively simple concepts. For example, the temperature and the ice cover of the planet are linked in a positive feedback which gives birth to multiple equilibria for some values of the solar constant: fully ice-covered Earth, ice-free Earth and an intermediate unstable solution. In this study, we show an analogy between a classical dynamical system approach to this problem and a Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) principle view, and we suggest a glimpse on how to reconcile MEP with the time evolution of a variable. It enables us in particular to resolve the question of the stability of the entropy production maxima. We also compare the surface heat flux obtained with MEP and with the bulk-aerodynamic formula.

Planetary albedo in strongly forced climate, as simulated by the CMIP3 models

Abstract: In an ensemble of general circulation models, the global mean albedo significantly decreases in response to strong CO2 forcing. In some of the models, the magnitude of this positive feedback is as large as the CO2 forcing itself. The models agree well on the surface contribution to the trend, due to retreating snow and ice cover, but display large differences when it comes to the contribution from shortwave radiative effects of clouds. The “cloud contribution” defined as the difference between clear-sky and all-sky albedo anomalies and denoted as ΔCC is correlated with equilibrium climate sensitivity in the models (correlation coefficient 0.76), indicating that in high sensitivity models the clouds to a greater extent act to enhance the negative clear-sky albedo trend, whereas in low sensitivity models the clouds rather counteract this trend. As a consequence, the total albedo trend is more negative in more sensitive models (correlation coefficient 0.73). This illustrates in a new way the importance of cloud response to global warming in determining climate sensitivity in models. The cloud contribution to the albedo trend can primarily be ascribed to changes in total cloud fraction, but changes in cloud albedo may also be of importance.

Is Antarctica melting

Abstract: Untilrecently,themassbalanceoftheAntarcticicesheetwasnotwellknown. Here, I review recent progress in determining its magnitude and temporal evolution, the physical processes that control the observed changes in ice sheet mass balance, and the important knowledge gaps that remain. The results highlight that the linkage between climate change and the Antarctic ice sheet is more complex than anticipated and that major observational and numerical modeling advances will be needed before we can reliably predict its evolution in a warming climate. At present, the Antarctic ice sheet is losing mass at a rate almost comparable to that of the Greenland ice sheet, about 250 ± 31 Gt/year or 0.7 mm/year sea level rise, and the mass loss is increasing with time, at a rate slightly below that observed in Greenland, at 14 ± 2G t/yr 2 . The Antarctic ice sheet is therefore a major contributor to sea level rise and its contribution is slowly increasing with time.  2011 John Wiley