Showing papers on "Monsoon published in 2014"

Monsoons over China

Abstract: One: The Summer Monsoon in East Asia. Two: The Winter Monsoon in East Asia. Three: The Short-Range Fluctuations of Monsoons and Their Association with the Major Weather Events in China. Four: The Medium and Long-Range Fluctuations of Monsoons and Their Association with Floods and Droughts over China. Five: Effects of the Tibetan Plateau (Qinghai-Xizang) on the Monsoon. Six: Heat, Moisture and Energy Budgets over the Monsoon Regions of China and Some Aspects of Monsoon Dynamics.

Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5

Abstract: This study investigates future changes of Global Monsoon (GM) under anthropogenic global warming using 20 coupled models that participated in the phase five of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) by comparing two runs: the historical run for 1850–2005 and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run for 2006–2100. A metrics for evaluation of models’ performance on GM is designed to document performance for 1980–2005 and best four models are selected. The four best models’ multi-model ensemble (B4MME) projects the following changes in the twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 scenario. (1) Monsoon domain will not change appreciably but land monsoon domain over Asia tends to expand westward by 10.6 %. (2) The annual mean and range of GM precipitation and the percentage of local summer rainfall will all amplify at a significant level over most of the global region, both over land and over ocean. (3) There will be a more prominent northern-southern hemispheric asymmetry and eastern-western hemispheric asymmetry. (4) Northern Hemisphere (NH) monsoon onset will be advanced and withdrawal will be delayed. (5) Changes in monsoon precipitation exhibits huge differences between the NH and the Southern hemisphere (SH). The NH monsoon precipitation will increase significantly due to increase in temperature difference between the NH and SH, significant enhancement of the Hadley circulation, and atmospheric moistening, against stabilization of troposphere. There is a slight decrease of the Walker circulation but not significant against the inter-model spread. There are important differences between the CMIP 3 and CMIP5 results which are discussed in detail.

Observed changes in extreme wet and dry spells during the South Asian summer monsoon season

Abstract: The South Asian summer monsoon has an impact on over one billion people. This study applies statistical techniques to precipitation observations (over the period 1951–2011) and finds significant increases in daily precipitation variability, the frequency of dry spells and the intensity of wet spells, whereas dry spell intensity decreases. The South Asian summer monsoon directly affects the lives of more than 1/6th of the world’s population. There is substantial variability within the monsoon season, including fluctuations between periods of heavy rainfall (wet spells) and low rainfall (dry spells)1. These fluctuations can cause extreme wet and dry regional conditions that adversely impact agricultural yields, water resources, infrastructure and human systems2,3. Through a comprehensive statistical analysis of precipitation observations (1951–2011), we show that statistically significant decreases in peak-season precipitation over the core-monsoon region have co-occurred with statistically significant increases in daily-scale precipitation variability. Further, we find statistically significant increases in the frequency of dry spells and intensity of wet spells, and statistically significant decreases in the intensity of dry spells. These changes in extreme wet and dry spell characteristics are supported by increases in convective available potential energy and low-level moisture convergence, along with changes to the large-scale circulation aloft in the atmosphere. The observed changes in wet and dry extremes during the monsoon season are relevant for managing climate-related risks, with particular relevance for water resources, agriculture, disaster preparedness and infrastructure planning.

Sea-level variability over five glacial cycles

Abstract: Detailed sea-level records beyond ~150,000 years ago are limited. Here, the authors present a radiometrically constrained sea-level record from the Red Sea, spanning five glacial cycles and examine sea-level rise rates and the effects of past global ice-volume changes on monsoon intensity.

Mid-latitude westerlies as a driver of glacier variability in monsoonal High Asia

Abstract: The tropical monsoon is thought to play a key role in glacier change in High Asia. The mass balance of a glacier in the southern Tibetan Plateau is found to be due to May/June precipitation, which is controlled by mid-latitude climate and the tropical monsoon. Further attention should be paid to mid-latitude climate to understand glacier changes.

Circulation effect: response of precipitation δ18O to the ENSO cycle in monsoon regions of China

Abstract: Inter-annual variation in the ratio of 18O to 16O of precipitation (δ18Op) in the monsoon regions of China (MRC, area approximately east of 100°E) has not yet been fully analyzed. Based on an analysis of the relationships between the time series of amount-weighted mean annual δ18O in precipitation (δ18Ow) and meteorological variables such as temperature, precipitation as well as atmospheric/oceanic circulation indices, it is recognized that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle appears to be the dominant control on the inter-annual variation in δ18Op in the MRC. Further analysis shows that the trade wind plays a role in governing δ18Ow through affecting the intensity of the different summer monsoon circulations which are closely linked to the weakening (weaker than normal) and strengthening (stronger than normal) of the trade wind and gives the δ18Ow different values at or over inter-annual timescales. The southwest monsoon (SWM) drives long-distance transport of water vapor from Indian Ocean to the MRC, and along this pathway increasing rainout leads to more negative δ18Ow via Rayleigh distillation processes. In contrast, the southeast monsoon (SEM), which is consistent with the changes in the strength of the West Pacific subtropical high, drives short-distance water vapor transport from the West Pacific Ocean to the MRC and leads to less negative δ18Ow. Therefore, the δ18Ow value directly reflects the differences in influence between the SWM, which is strong when the SE trade wind is strong, and the SEM, which is strong when the SE trade wind is weak. In addition, the South China Sea Monsoon also transports local water vapor as well as plays a role in achieving the synchronization between the δ18Ow and ENSO. The author thus terms the δ18Op rhythm in the MRC the “circulation effect”. In turn, the δ18Op variation in the MRC has the potential to provide information on atmospheric circulation and the signal of δ18Op recorded in natural archives can then be used to deduce a long-term behavior of the tropical climate system.

Abrupt weakening of the summer monsoon in northwest India ∼4100 yr ago

Abstract: Climate change has been suggested as a possible cause for the decline of urban centers of the Indus Civilization ~4000 yr ago, but extant paleoclimatic evidence has been derived from locations well outside the distribution of Indus settlements Here we report an oxygen iso- tope record of gastropod aragonite (δ 18 O a ) from Holocene sediments of paleolake Kotla Dahar (Haryana, India), which is adjacent to Indus settlements and documents Indian summer mon- soon (ISM) variability for the past 65 ky A 4‰ increase in δ 18 O a occurred at ca 41 ka mark- ing a peak in the evaporation/precipitation ratio in the lake catchment related to weakening of the ISM Although dating uncertainty exists in both climate and archaeological records, the drought event 41 ka on the northwestern Indian plains is within the radiocarbon age range for the beginning of Indus de-urbanization, suggesting that climate may have played a role in the Indus cultural transformation

Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to natural and anthropogenic forcings in the 17 latest CMIP5 models

Abstract: In this study, we examined the responses of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) to natural (solar variability and volcanic aerosols) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gasses and aerosols) forcings simulated in the 17 latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5 (CMIP5) models with 105 realizations. The observed weakening trend of low-level EASM circulation during 1958-2001 is partly reproduced under all-forcing runs. A comparison of separate forcing experiments reveals that the aerosol-forcing plays a primary role in driving the weakened low-level monsoon circulation. The preferential cooling over continental East Asia caused by aerosol affects the monsoon circulation through reducing the land-sea thermal contrast and results in higher sea level pressure over northern China. In the upper-level, both natural-forcing and aerosol-forcing contribute to the observed southward shift of East Asian subtropical jet through changing the meridional temperature gradient.

Response of inland lake dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau to climate change

Abstract: The water balance of inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) involves complex hydrological processes; their dynamics over recent decades is a good indicator of changes in water cycle under rapid global warming. Based on satellite images and extensive field investigations, we demonstrate that a coherent lake growth on the TP interior (TPI) has occurred since the late 1990s in response to a significant global climate change. Closed lakes on the TPI varied heterogeneously during 1976-1999, but expanded coherently and signifi- cantly in both lake area and water depth during 1999-2010. Although the decreased potential evaporation and glacier mass loss may contribute to the lake growth since the late 1990s, the significant water surplus is mainly attributed to increased regional precipitation, which, in turn, may be related to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, including the intensified Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) circulation and the poleward shift of the Eastern Asian westerlies jet stream.

Influence of PDO on South Asian summer monsoon and monsoon–ENSO relation

Abstract: This study has investigated the possible relation between the Indian summer monsoon and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) observed in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the North Pacific Ocean. Using long records of observations and coupled model (NCAR CCSM4) simulation, this study has found that the warm (cold) phase of the PDO is associated with deficit (excess) rainfall over India. The PDO extends its influence to the tropical Pacific and modifies the relation between the monsoon rainfall and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During the warm PDO period, the impact of El Nino (La Nina) on the monsoon rainfall is enhanced (reduced). A hypothesis put forward for the mechanism by which PDO affects the monsoon starts with the seasonal footprinting of SST from the North Pacific to the subtropical Pacific. This condition affects the trade winds, and either strengthens or weakens the Walker circulation over the Pacific and Indian Oceans depending on the phase of the PDO. The associated Hadley circulation in the monsoon region determines the impact of PDO on the monsoon rainfall. We suggest that knowing the phase of PDO may lead to better long-term prediction of the seasonal monsoon rainfall and the impact of ENSO on monsoon.

Aridification of the Sahara desert caused by Tethys Sea shrinkage during the Late Miocene

Abstract: The drying of the Tethys Sea—the progenitor of the modern Mediterranean, Black and Caspian seas—weakened the northern extension of the African monsoon and led to the creation of the Sahara desert about 7 million years ago. Most evidence suggests that the modern Sahara desert first arose between two and three million years ago, coinciding with the initiation of major glaciations in the Northern Hemisphere. This study puts Saharan origins much earlier. Zhongshi Zhang et al. show that the shrinkage of the Tethys Sea — the progenitor of the modern Mediterranean, Black and Caspian seas — weakened the northern extension of the African monsoon and led to the creation of the Sahara desert about seven million years ago. Such a dramatic revision could lead to new investigations of the Sahara in fields as diverse as geology, evolutionary biology and climatology. It is widely believed that the Sahara desert is no more than ∼2–3 million years (Myr) old1, with geological evidence showing a remarkable aridification of north Africa at the onset of the Quaternary ice ages2,3,4. Before that time, north African aridity was mainly controlled by the African summer monsoon (ASM)5,6,7,8, which oscillated with Earth’s orbital precession cycles. Afterwards, the Northern Hemisphere glaciation added an ice volume forcing on the ASM, which additionally oscillated with glacial–interglacial cycles2. These findings led to the idea that the Sahara desert came into existence when the Northern Hemisphere glaciated ∼2–3 Myr ago. The later discovery, however, of aeolian dune deposits ∼7 Myr old9 suggested a much older age, although this interpretation is hotly challenged1 and there is no clear mechanism for aridification around this time. Here we use climate model simulations to identify the Tortonian stage (∼7–11 Myr ago) of the Late Miocene epoch as the pivotal period for triggering north African aridity and creating the Sahara desert. Through a set of experiments with the Norwegian Earth System Model10 and the Community Atmosphere Model11, we demonstrate that the African summer monsoon was drastically weakened by the Tethys Sea shrinkage during the Tortonian, allowing arid, desert conditions to expand across north Africa. Not only did the Tethys shrinkage alter the mean climate of the region, it also enhanced the sensitivity of the African monsoon to orbital forcing, which subsequently became the major driver of Sahara extent fluctuations. These important climatic changes probably caused the shifts in Asian and African flora and fauna observed during the same period4,12,13,14, with possible links to the emergence of early hominins in north Africa15,16.

An Intensity Index for the East Asian Winter Monsoon

Abstract: The thermal contrast betweenthe Asian continentand the adjacent oceans is the primary aspect of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) that can be well represented in the sea level pressure (SLP) field. Based on this consideration, a new SLP-based index measuring the intensity of the EAWM is proposed by explicitly taking into account both the east‐west and the north‐south pressure gradients around East Asia. The new index can delineate the EAWM-related circulation anomalies well, including the deepened (shallow) midtropospheric East Asian trough, sharpened and accelerated (widened and decelerated) upper-tropospheric East Asian jet stream, and enhanced (weakened) lower-tropospheric northerly winds in strong (weak) EAWM winters. Compared with previous indices, the new index has a very good performance describing the winter-mean surface air temperature variations over East Asia, especially for the extreme warm or cold winters. The index is strongly correlated with several atmospheric teleconnections including the Arctic Oscillation,theEurasianpattern,andtheNorthPacificOscillation/westernPacificpattern,implyingthepossible internal dynamics of the EAWM variability. Meanwhile, the indexis significantly linked to El Ni~ Oscillation (ENSO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Indian Ocean. Moreover, the SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean are more closely related to the index than ENSO as an independent predictor. This adds further knowledge to the prediction potentials of the EAWM apart from ENSO. The predictability of the index is high in the hindcasts of the Centre National de Recherches M�� (CNRM) model from Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER). Hence, it would be a good choice to use this index for the monitoring, prediction, and research of the EAWM.

Interannual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Simulated by CMIP3 and CMIP5 AGCMs: Skill Dependence on Indian Ocean–Western Pacific Anticyclone Teleconnection

Abstract: The climatology and interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are investigated by using 13 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) and 19 AGCMs from CMIP5. The mean low-level monsoon circulation is reasonably reproduced in the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of CMIP3 and CMIP5 AGCMs, except for a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high. However, the monsoon rainband known as mei-yu/baiu/changma (28°–38°N, 105°–150°E) is poorly simulated, although a significant improvement is seen from CMIP3 to CMIP5. The interannual EASM pattern is obtained by regressing the precipitation and 850-hPa wind on the observed EASM index. The observed dipole rainfall pattern is partly reproduced in CMIP3 and CMIP5 MME but with two deficiencies: weaker magnitude and southward shift of the dipole rainfall pattern. These deficiencies are closely related to the weaker and southward shift of the western Pacific anticyclo...

Climatology, annual cycle and interannual variability of precipitation and temperature in CORDEX simulations over West Africa

Abstract: We examine the ability of an ensemble of 10 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, in skillfully reproducing key features of present-day precipitation and temperature (1990-2008) over West Africa. We explore a wide range of time scales spanning seasonal climatologies, annual cycles and interannual variability, and a number of spatial scales covering the Sahel, the Gulf of Guinea and the entire West Africa. We find that the RCMs show acceptable performance in simulating the spatial distribution of the main precipitation and temperature features. The occurrence of the West African Monsoon jump, the intensification and northward shift of the Saharan Heat Low (SHL), during the course of the year, are shown to be realistic in most RCMs. They also capture the mean annual cycle of precipitation and temperature, including, single and double-peaked rainy seasons, in terms of timing and amplitude over the homogeneous sub-regions. However, we should emphasize that the RCMs exhibit some biases, which vary considerably in both magnitude and spatial extent from model to model. The interannual variability of seasonal anomalies is best reproduced in temperature rather than precipitation. The ensemble mean considerably improves the skill of most of the individual RCMs. This highlights the importance of performing multi-model assessment in properly estimating the response of the West African climate to global warming at seasonal, annual and interannual time scales.

A comprehensive evaluation of precipitation simulations over China based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projections

Abstract: Precipitation variability has great economic, social, and environmental impacts across the globe, and in particular in China. This paper evaluates the historical precipitation variability based on 20 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive over the 20th century relative to two observational data sets and quantifies CMIP5 improvements over CMIP3. Multimodel ensemble means and individual models are assessed. Three future emission scenarios are used (representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5, RCP 4.5, and RCP 2.6), and 21st century CMIP5 estimates are put into context based on the 20th century biases. We find that CMIP5 models can reproduce the spatial pattern of precipitation over China during the 20th century, which represents an improvement over CMIP3. However, the models overestimate the magnitude of seasonal and annual precipitation in most regions of China, especially along the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, and underestimate summer precipitation over southeastern China. For China as a whole, CMIP5's overestimation of annual precipitation is greater than CMIP3, which can be traced back to a greater underestimation of summer precipitation in CMIP3. There is a large spread among individual models, with the greatest uncertainties in simulating summer precipitation. Trends and correlations also suggest a better agreement of CMIP5 with observations than CMIP3. Throughout the 20th century, both the observations and models show an increasing trend in precipitation over parts of northwestern China and a decreasing trend over the Tibetan Plateau. There is poor agreement in precipitation trends over the southeast and northeast regions. In general, multimodel means cannot capture the amplitude of observed multidecadal precipitation variability. In the 21st century, precipitation is generally projected to increase across all of China under all three scenarios. RCP 8.5 exhibits the largest significant trend at a rate of +1.5 mm/yr, corresponding to 16% precipitation increase by the end of the century. The RCP 2.6 scenario shows the smallest increases, at +0.5 mm/yr (6%) by 2100. The greatest increases are projected to occur over the Tibetan Plateau and eastern China in summer, suggesting an altered monsoonal circulation in the future. However, due to the uncertainties in CMIP5, future precipitation projections should be interpreted with caution.

The role of moist convection in the West African monsoon

Abstract: [1] Predicting the West African monsoon (WAM) remains a major challenge for weather and climate models. We compare multiday continental-scale simulations of the WAM that explicitly resolve moist convection with simulations which parameterize convection. Simulations with the same grid spacing but differing representations of convection isolate the impact of the representation of convection. The more realistic explicit convection gives greater latent and radiative heating farther north, with latent heating later in the day. This weakens the Sahel-Sahara pressure gradient and the monsoon flow, delaying its diurnal cycle and changing interactions between the monsoon and boundary layer convection. In explicit runs, cold storm outflows provide a significant component of the monsoon flux. In an operational global model, biases resemble those in our parameterized case. Improved parameterizations of convection that better capture storm structures, their diurnal cycle, and rainfall intensities will therefore substantially improve predictions of the WAM and coupled aspects of the Earth system.

The Climatology and Interannual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models: Does Air-Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?

Abstract: The climatology and interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by 34 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated. To estimate the role of air‐sea coupling, 17 CGCMs are compared to their corresponding atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climatological low-level monsoon circulation and mei-yu/changma/baiu rainfall band are improved in CGCMs from AGCMs. The improvement is at the cost of the local cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases in CGCMs, since they decrease the surface evaporation and enhance the circulation. The interannual EASM pattern is evaluated by a skill formula and the highest/lowest eight models are selected to investigate the skill origins. The observed Indian Ocean (IO) warming, tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) rainfall anomalies, and Kelvin wave response are captured well in high-skill models, while these features are not present in low-skill models. Further, the differences in the IO warming between high-skill and low-skill models are rooted in the preceding ENSO simulation. Hence, the IO‐western Pacific anticyclone (WPAC) teleconnection is important for CGCMs, similar to AGCMs. However, compared to AGCMs, the TEIO SST anomaly is warmer in CGCMs, since the easterly wind anomalies in the southern flank of the WPAC reduce the climatological monsoon westerlies and decrease the surface evaporation. The warmer TEIO induces the stronger precipitation anomaly and intensifies the teleconnection. Hence, the interannual EASM pattern is better simulated in CGCMs than that in AGCMs.

A climatology of aerosol optical depth over China from recent 10 years of MODIS remote sensing data

Abstract: Using the recent 10-year (March 2000 to February 2010) MODIS data of aerosol optical depth (AOD), the distributions of annual and seasonal mean AOD over China are presented, and the trends and seasonal variations in AOD over 10 regions in China are analysed. The spatial pattern of annual mean AOD is characterized generally with two low centres and two high centres over China. Two low AOD centres are located in the areas with a high vegetation cover and a sparse population in (1) the high-latitude region in Northeast China with AOD of about 0.2 and (2) the high-altitude region in Southwest China with AOD from 0.1 to 0.2. These two low AOD centres are connected by a low AOD zone (0.2–0.3) in a northeast–southwest direction across China. Demarcated by this low AOD zone, two high centres with AOD of about 0.8 are situated in (1) the most densely populated and industrialized regions in China with high anthropogenic aerosols from North China Plain, Yangtze River areas covering Sichuan Basin, Central China and Yangtze River Delta to South China with Pearl River Delta region and (2) Tarim Basin in Northwest China with high natural aerosols dominated with desert dust. The spatial AOD patterns over China keep seasonally unchanged, but the strengths of the AOD-centres vary from season to season. The wintertime AOD is lowest in China. The monthly AOD variations from March to September in Southern China correspond with high AOD before, after the rain periods and low AOD during the rain periods of Asian summer monsoon. Asian summer monsoons also make a notable impact on the seasonal cycle of aerosols in China. The AOD in Northern China changes monthly with a single peak between April and June and a low in the winter months. The positive trends in AOD occur mostly in the aerosol source regions with higher annual mean AOD (>0.25), while the negative trends are found in the regions with lower annual mean AOD (<0.25) over China.

The global monsoon across timescales: coherent variability of regional monsoons

Abstract: . Monsoon has earned increasing attention from the climate community since the last century, yet only recently have regional monsoons been recognized as a global system. It remains a debated issue, however, as to what extent and at which timescales the global monsoon can be viewed as a major mode of climate variability. For this purpose, a PAGES (Past Global Changes) working group (WG) was set up to investigate the concept of the global monsoon and its future research directions. The WG's synthesis is presented here. On the basis of observation and proxy data, the WG found that the regional monsoons can vary coherently, although not perfectly, at various timescales, varying between interannual, interdecadal, centennial, millennial, orbital and tectonic timescales, conforming to the global monsoon concept across timescales. Within the global monsoon system, each subsystem has its own features, depending on its geographic and topographic conditions. Discrimination between global and regional components in the monsoon system is a key to revealing the driving factors in monsoon variations; hence, the global monsoon concept helps to enhance our understanding and to improve future projections of the regional monsoons. This paper starts with a historical review of the global monsoon concept in both modern and paleo-climatology, and an assessment of monsoon proxies used in regional and global scales. The main body of the paper is devoted to a summary of observation data at various timescales, providing evidence of the coherent global monsoon system. The paper concludes with a projection of future monsoon shifts in a warming world. The synthesis will be followed by a companion paper addressing driving mechanisms and outstanding issues in global monsoon studies.

Long term spatial and temporal rainfall trends and homogeneity analysis in Wainganga basin, Central India

Abstract: Gridded rainfall data of 0.5×0.5° resolution (CRU TS 3.21) was analysed to study long term spatial and temporal trends on annual and seasonal scales in Wainganga river basin located in Central India during 1901–2012. After testing the presence of autocorrelation, Mann–Kendall (Modified Mann–Kendall) test was applied to non-auto correlated (auto correlated) series to detect the trends in rainfall data. Theil and Sen׳s slope estimator test was used for finding the magnitude of change over a time period. For detecting the most probable change year, Pettitt–Mann–Whitney test was applied. The Rainfall series was then divided into two partial duration series for finding changes in trends before and after the change year. Arc GIS was used to explore spatial patterns of the trends over the entire basin. Though most of the grid points shows a decreasing trend in annual rainfall, only seven grids has a significant decreasing trend during 1901–2012. On the basis of seasonal trend analysis, non-significant increasing trend is observed only in post monsoon season while seven grid points show significant decreasing trend in monsoon rainfall and non-significant in pre-monsoon and winter rainfall over the last 112 years. During the study period, overall a 8.45% decrease in annual rainfall is estimated. The most probable year of change was found to be 1948 in annual and monsoonal rainfall. There is an increasing rainfall trend in the basin during the period 1901–1948, which is reversed during the period 1949–2012 resulting in decreasing rainfall trend in the basin. Homogeneous trends in annual and seasonal rainfall over a grid points is exhibited in the basin by van Belle and Hughes׳ homogeneity trend test.

Orbital Asian summer monsoon dynamics revealed using an isotope-enabled global climate model

Abstract: The Asian summer monsoon dynamics at the orbital scale are a subject of considerable debate. The validity of Asian speleothem delta O-18 records as a proxy for summer monsoon intensity is questioned together with the ultimate forcing and timing of the monsoon. Here, using the results of a 150,000-year transient simulation including water isotopes, we demonstrate that Asian speleothem d18O records are not a valid proxy for summer monsoon intensity only at the orbital timescale. Rather, our results show that these records reflect annual variations in hydrologic processes and circulation regime over a large part of the Indo-Asian region. Our results support the role of internal forcing, such as sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific, to modulate the timing of monsoon precipitation recorded in paleo-proxies inside the Asian region.

Failure of CMIP5 climate models in simulating post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian monsoon

Abstract: Impacts of climate change on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and the growing population pose a major threat to water and food security in India. Adapting to such changes needs reliable projections of ISMR by general circulation models. Here we find that, majority of new generation climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase5 (CMIP5) fail to simulate the post-1950 decreasing trend of ISMR. The weakening of monsoon is associated with the warming of Southern Indian Ocean and strengthening of cyclonic formation in the tropical western Pacific Ocean. We also find that these large-scale changes are not captured by CMIP5 models, with few exceptions, which is the reason of this failure. Proper representation of these highlighted geophysical processes in next generation models may improve the reliability of ISMR projections. Our results also alert the water resource planners to evaluate the CMIP5 models before using them for adaptation strategies.

Linkages between ENSO/PDO signals and precipitation, streamflow in China during the last 100 years

Abstract: This paper investigates the single and combined impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on precipitation and streamflow in China over the last century. Results indicate that the precipitation and streamflow overall decrease during El Nino/PDO warm phase periods and increase during La Nina/PDO cool phase periods in the majority of China, although there are regional and seasonal differences. Precipitation and streamflow in the Yellow River basin, Yangtze River basin and Pearl River basin are more significantly influenced by El Nino and La Nina events than is precipitation and streamflow in the Songhua River basin, especially in October and November. Moreover, significant influence of ENSO on streamflow in the Yangtze River mainly occurs in summer and autumn while in the Pearl River influence primarily occurs in the winter and spring. The precipitation and streamflow are relatively greater in the warm PDO phase in the Songhua River basin and several parts of the Yellow River basin and relatively less in the Pearl River basin and most parts of Northwest China compared to those in the cool PDO phase, though there is little significance detected by Wilcoxon signed-rank test. When considering the combined influence of ENSO and PDO, the responses of precipitation/streamflow are shown to be opposite in northern China and southern China, with ENSO-related precipitation/streamflow enhanced in northern China and decreased in southern China during the warm PDO phases, and enhanced in southern China and decreased in northern China during the cool PDO phases. It is hoped that this study will be beneficial for understanding the precipitation/streamflow responses to the changing climate and will correspondingly provide valuable reference for water resources prediction and management across China.

Potential role of winter rainfall in explaining increased moisture in the Mediterranean and Middle East during periods of maximum orbitally-forced insolation seasonality

Abstract: Precession-related forcing of seasonal insolation changes in the northern hemisphere (NH) alternates between maximum NH seasonality (summer perihelion–increased insolation; winter aphelion–decreased insolation) and minimum NH seasonality (summer aphelion, and winter perihelion). With maximum NH seasonality, climate models simulate stronger NH summer monsoons that bring increased precipitation to North Africa and South and East Asia, in agreement with the in-phase relation of precipitation and NH summer insolation found in many paleoclimatic records. However paleoclimatic records in parts of the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and the interior of Asia also indicate increased moisture at times of maximum NH seasonality, a change not always clearly linked to stronger summer monsoons—either because these regions are at or beyond the boundaries of the present-day monsoon or because the observations allow multiple causal interpretations, or both. This study focuses on the possible role of changes in NH winter climate in explaining these wetter episodes. Using climate model simulations, we show that the ‘NH winter aphelion–decreased NH winter insolation’ orbital configuration is linked to the Mediterranean storm track and increased winter rains in the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and interior Asia. We conclude that wetter periods at precession time scales in these particular regions may have resulted either from increased wintertime storm track precipitation, or from a combination of increased winter and summer rainfall. Given this seasonal ambiguity, both possibilities need to be considered.

Glacial forcing of central Indonesian hydroclimate since 60,000 y B.P.

Abstract: The Indo-Pacific warm pool houses the largest zone of deep atmospheric convection on Earth and plays a critical role in global climate variations. Despite the region’s importance, changes in Indo-Pacific hydroclimate on orbital timescales remain poorly constrained. Here we present high-resolution geochemical records of surface runoff and vegetation from sediment cores from Lake Towuti, on the island of Sulawesi in central Indonesia, that continuously span the past 60,000 y. We show that wet conditions and rainforest ecosystems on Sulawesi present during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS3) and the Holocene were interrupted by severe drying between ∼33,000 and 16,000 y B.P. when Northern Hemisphere ice sheets expanded and global temperatures cooled. Our record reveals little direct influence of precessional orbital forcing on regional climate, and the similarity between MIS3 and Holocene climates observed in Lake Towuti suggests that exposure of the Sunda Shelf has a weaker influence on regional hydroclimate and terrestrial ecosystems than suggested previously. We infer that hydrological variability in this part of Indonesia varies strongly in response to high-latitude climate forcing, likely through reorganizations of the monsoons and the position of the intertropical convergence zone. These findings suggest an important role for the tropical western Pacific in amplifying glacial–interglacial climate variability.