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Showing papers by "National Marine Fisheries Service published in 2014"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: NeEstimator v2 includes three single‐sample estimators (updated versions of the linkage disequilibrium and heterozygote‐excess methods, and a new method based on molecular coancestry), as well as the two‐sample (moment‐based temporal) method.
Abstract: NeEstimator v2 is a completely revised and updated implementation of software that produces estimates of contemporary effective population size, using several different methods and a single input file. NeEstimator v2 includes three single-sample estimators (updated versions of the linkage disequilibrium and heterozygote-excess methods, and a new method based on molecular coancestry), as well as the two-sample (moment-based temporal) method. New features include the following: (i) an improved method for accounting for missing data; (ii) options for screening out rare alleles; (iii) confidence intervals for all methods; (iv) the ability to analyse data sets with large numbers of genetic markers (10000 or more); (v) options for batch processing large numbers of different data sets, which will facilitate cross-method comparisons using simulated data; and (vi) correction for temporal estimates when individuals sampled are not removed from the population (Plan I sampling). The user is given considerable control over input data and composition, and format of output files. The freely available software has a new JAVA interface and runs under MacOS, Linux and Windows.

1,515 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
21 Jan 2014-eLife
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the first systematic analysis of threat for a globally distributed lineage of 1,041 chondrichthyan fishes (sharks, rays, and chimaeras).
Abstract: The rapid expansion of human activities threatens ocean-wide biodiversity. Numerous marine animal populations have declined, yet it remains unclear whether these trends are symptomatic of a chronic accumulation of global marine extinction risk. We present the first systematic analysis of threat for a globally distributed lineage of 1,041 chondrichthyan fishes—sharks, rays, and chimaeras. We estimate that one-quarter are threatened according to IUCN Red List criteria due to overfishing (targeted and incidental). Large-bodied, shallow-water species are at greatest risk and five out of the seven most threatened families are rays. Overall chondrichthyan extinction risk is substantially higher than for most other vertebrates, and only one-third of species are considered safe. Population depletion has occurred throughout the world's ice-free waters, but is particularly prevalent in the Indo-Pacific Biodiversity Triangle and Mediterranean Sea. Improved management of fisheries and trade is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and promote population recovery.

1,467 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This analysis provides an unprecedented global assessment of the distribution and magnitude of air-breathing megafauna bycatch, highlighting its cumulative nature and the urgent need to build on existing mitigation successes.
Abstract: Recent research on ocean health has found large predator abundance to be a key element of ocean condition. Fisheries can impact large predator abundance directly through targeted capture and indirectly through incidental capture of nontarget species or bycatch. However, measures of the global nature of bycatch are lacking for air-breathing megafauna. We fill this knowledge gap and present a synoptic global assessment of the distribution and intensity of bycatch of seabirds, marine mammals, and sea turtles based on empirical data from the three most commonly used types of fishing gears worldwide. We identify taxa-specific hotspots of bycatch intensity and find evidence of cumulative impacts across fishing fleets and gears. This global map of bycatch illustrates where data are particularly scarce—in coastal and small-scale fisheries and ocean regions that support developed industrial fisheries and millions of small-scale fishers—and identifies fishing areas where, given the evidence of cumulative hotspots across gear and taxa, traditional species or gear-specific bycatch management and mitigation efforts may be necessary but not sufficient. Given the global distribution of bycatch and the mitigation success achieved by some fleets, the reduction of air-breathing megafauna bycatch is both an urgent and achievable conservation priority.

344 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluate the effect of a widespread conversion from traditional center pivot irrigation systems to higher efficiency dropped-nozzle center pivot systems that has occurred in western Kansas and find that the intended reduction in groundwater use did not occur; the shift to more efficient irrigation technology has increased groundwater extraction, in part due to shifting crop patterns.

272 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors quantified the performance of a number of data-limited stock assessment methods and found that those methods that dynamically accounted for changes in abundance and/or depletion performed well at low stock sizes.

218 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Punt et al. as mentioned in this paper proposed a method to estimate the number of fishes that will die due to ocean acidification due to global warming and proposed an approach to solve the problem.
Abstract: Andre E. Punt1,2*, Teresa A’mar3, Nicholas A. Bond4, Douglas S. Butterworth5, Carryn L. de Moor5, Jose A. A. De Oliveira6, Melissa A. Haltuch7, Anne B. Hollowed3, and Cody Szuwalski1 School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA CSIRO Wealth from Oceans Flagship, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USA Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group (MARAM), Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa CEFAS Lowestoft Laboratory, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk NR33 0HT, UK Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 2725 Montlake Boulevard East, Seattle, WA 98112, USA *Corresponding author: tel +1 206 2216319; fax +1 206 6857471; e-mail: aepunt@uw.edu

171 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Using generalized additive mixed-effects modelling, spatio-temporal variations in the dates of downstream smolt migration in 67 rivers throughout the North Atlantic during the last five decades are analysed and it is found that migrations were earlier in populations in the east than the west.
Abstract: Migrations between different habitats are key events in the lives of many organisms. Such movements involve annually recurring travel over long distances usually triggered by seasonal changes in the environment. Often, the migration is associated with travel to or from reproduction areas to regions of growth. Young anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) emigrate from freshwater nursery areas during spring and early summer to feed and grow in the North Atlantic Ocean. The transition from the freshwater (parr') stage to the migratory stage where they descend streams and enter salt water (smolt') is characterized by morphological, physiological and behavioural changes where the timing of this parr-smolt transition is cued by photoperiod and water temperature. Environmental conditions in the freshwater habitat control the downstream migration and contribute to within- and among-river variation in migratory timing. Moreover, the timing of the freshwater emigration has likely evolved to meet environmental conditions in the ocean as these affect growth and survival of the post-smolts. Using generalized additive mixed-effects modelling, we analysed spatio-temporal variations in the dates of downstream smolt migration in 67 rivers throughout the North Atlantic during the last five decades and found that migrations were earlier in populations in the east than the west. After accounting for this spatial effect, the initiation of the downstream migration among rivers was positively associated with freshwater temperatures, up to about 10 degrees C and levelling off at higher values, and with sea-surface temperatures. Earlier migration occurred when river discharge levels were low but increasing. On average, the initiation of the smolt seaward migration has occurred 2.5days earlier per decade throughout the basin of the North Atlantic. This shift in phenology matches changes in air, river, and ocean temperatures, suggesting that Atlantic salmon emigration is responding to the current global climate changes.

168 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that reduced fitness of early‐generation hatchery fish may be a general phenomenon and future research should focus on determining the causes of those fitness reductions and whether they lead to long‐term reductions in the fitness of wild populations.
Abstract: Large numbers of hatchery salmon spawn in wild populations each year. Hatchery fish with multiple generations of hatchery ancestry often have heritably lower reproductive success than wild fish and may reduce the fitness of an entire population. Whether this reduced fitness also occurs for hatchery fish created with local- and predominantly wild-origin parents remains controversial. Here, we review recent studies on the reproductive success of such ‘early-generation’ hatchery fish that spawn in the wild. Combining 51 estimates from six studies on four salmon species, we found that (i) early-generation hatchery fish averaged only half the reproductive success of their wild-origin counterparts when spawning in the wild, (ii) the reduction in reproductive success was more severe for males than for females, and (iii) all species showed reduced fitness due to hatchery rearing. We review commonalities among studies that point to possible mechanisms (e.g., environmental versus genetic effects). Furthermore, we illustrate that sample sizes typical of these studies result in low statistical power to detect fitness differences unless the differences are substantial. This review demonstrates that reduced fitness of early-generation hatchery fish may be a general phenomenon. Future research should focus on determining the causes of those fitness reductions and whether they lead to long-term reductions in the fitness of wild populations.

165 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Genotype data from 95 single nucleotide polymorphisms are used and show that the distribution of variation in a large region of one chromosome, Omy5, is strongly associated with life-history differentiation in multiple above-barrier populations of rainbow trout and their anadromous steelhead ancestors.
Abstract: Rapid adaptation to novel environments may drive changes in genomic regions through natural selection. Such changes may be population-specific or, alternatively, may involve parallel evolution of the same genomic region in multiple populations, if that region contains genes or co-adapted gene complexes affecting the selected trait(s). Both quantitative and population genetic approaches have identified associations between specific genomic regions and the anadromous (steelhead) and resident (rainbow trout) life-history strategies of Oncorhynchus mykiss . Here, we use genotype data from 95 single nucleotide polymorphisms and show that the distribution of variation in a large region of one chromosome, Omy5, is strongly associated with life-history differentiation in multiple above-barrier populations of rainbow trout and their anadromous steelhead ancestors. The associated loci are in strong linkage disequilibrium, suggesting the presence of a chromosomal inversion or other rearrangement limiting recombination. These results provide the first evidence of a common genomic basis for life-history variation in O. mykiss in a geographically diverse set of populations and extend our knowledge of the heritable basis of rapid adaptation of complex traits in novel habitats.

152 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a mini review of relevant social science identifies five key cultural dimensions of ecosystems, highlighting examples from coastal North America These key dimensions are: meanings, values, and identities; knowledge and practice; governance and access; livelihoods; and interactions with biophysical environments.
Abstract: Environments are complex socioecological systems demanding interdisciplinary research and conservation Despite significant progress in characterizing socioecological complexity, including important inroads for measuring human wellbeing through ecosystem services approaches, cultural interactions with ecosystems remain poorly understood Inadequate knowledge of cultural dimensions of ecosystems challenges the ability of conservation professionals to include these considerations in their programs Ecosystem-based conservation without cultural considerations is not only insufficient, it risks producing unaccounted negative impacts to communities and misses an opportunity to build culturally meaningful alternatives This mini review of relevant social science identifies five key cultural dimensions of ecosystems, highlighting examples from coastal North America These key dimensions are: meanings, values, and identities; knowledge and practice; governance and access; livelihoods; and interactions with biophysical environments We outline guiding principles for addressing these connections in integrated conservation research and application Finally, we discuss potential methodologies to help improve interdisciplinary assessment and monitoring of cultural dimensions of conservation

144 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A growing body of literature suggests that AMO-related fluctuations are associated with shifts in ecological boundaries, primary productivity, and a number of ecologically and economically important coastal and marine populations across the Atlantic basin this article.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The most commonly used metric, MaxN, was nonlinearly related to true abundance using all three approaches, providing increasingly dampened estimates of abundance with increasing true abundance (i.e., hyperstability).
Abstract: Underwater video has become an important tool for monitoring reef fish populations worldwide because it is nonextractive and not strongly selective. A variety of approaches have been developed to e...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is shown how high‐resolution genetic markers can be used to identify genetically distinct groups of a migratory bird, the Wilson's warbler (Cardellina pusilla), at fine enough spatial scales to facilitate assessing regional drivers of demographic trends.
Abstract: Neotropic migratory birds are declining across the Western Hemisphere, but conservation efforts have been hampered by the inability to assess where migrants are most limited-the breeding grounds, migratory stopover sites or wintering areas. A major challenge has been the lack of an efficient, reliable and broadly applicable method for measuring the strength of migratory connections between populations across the annual cycle. Here, we show how high-resolution genetic markers can be used to identify genetically distinct groups of a migratory bird, the Wilson's warbler (Cardellina pusilla), at fine enough spatial scales to facilitate assessing regional drivers of demographic trends. By screening 1626 samples using 96 highly divergent single nucleotide polymorphisms selected from a large pool of candidates (~450 000), we identify novel region-specific migratory routes and timetables of migration along the Pacific Flyway. Our results illustrate that high-resolution genetic markers are more reliable, precise and amenable to high throughput screening than previously described intrinsic marking techniques, making them broadly applicable to large-scale monitoring and conservation of migratory organisms.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors draw upon lessons learned from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Integrated Environment Assessment (IEA) program to outline steps required for IEA implementation.
Abstract: Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has emerged as a basic approach for managing human activities in marine ecosystems, with the aim of recovering and conserving marine ecosystems and the services they deliver. Integrated ecosystem assessments (IEAs) further the transition of EBM from principle to practice by providing an efficient, transparent means of summarizing the status of ecosystem components, screening and prioritizing potential risks, and evaluating alternative management strategies against a backdrop of environmental variability. In this paper, we draw upon lessons learned from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s IEA programme to outline steps required for IEA implementation. We provide an overview of the conceptual framework for IEAs, the practical constraints that shape the structure of individual IEAs, and the uses and outcomes of IEAs in support of EBM.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The proposed Stream Evolution Model includes a precursor stage, which represents stream evolution as a cyclical, rather than linear, phenomenon, recognizing an evolutionary cycle within which streams advance through the common sequence, skip some stages entirely, recover to a previous stage or even repeat parts of the evolutionary cycle.
Abstract: For decades, Channel Evolution Models have provided useful templates for understanding morphological responses to disturbance associated with lowering base level, channelization or alterations to the flow and/or sediment regimes. In this paper, two well-established Channel Evolution Models are revisited and updated in light of recent research and practical experience. The proposed Stream Evolution Model includes a precursor stage, which recognizes that streams may naturally be multi-threaded prior to disturbance, and represents stream evolution as a cyclical, rather than linear, phenomenon, recognizing an evolutionary cycle within which streams advance through the common sequence, skip some stages entirely, recover to a previous stage or even repeat parts of the evolutionary cycle. The hydrologic, hydraulic, morphological and vegetative attributes of the stream during each evolutionary stage provide varying ranges and qualities of habitat and ecosystem benefits. The authors' personal experience was combined with information gleaned from recent literature to construct a fluvial habitat scoring scheme that distinguishes the relative, and substantial differences in, ecological values of different evolutionary stages. Consideration of the links between stream evolution and ecosystem services leads to improved understanding of the ecological status of contemporary, managed rivers compared with their historical, unmanaged counterparts. The potential utility of the Stream Evolution Model, with its interpretation of habitat and ecosystem benefits includes improved river management decision making with respect to future capital investment not only in aquatic, riparian and floodplain conservation and restoration but also in interventions intended to promote species recovery. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is suggested that considering ecological and biological traits of species shows promise for designing effective conservation measures, whereas techniques that reduce fisheries interactions in the first place may be the best strategy for highly vulnerable species.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A general semiparametric mixture model is developed that incorporates measured habitat variables and a nonparametric smoothing term to account for unmeasured variables and is compared with two stratified abundance estimators and compared with an intensively managed marine fish, darkblotched rockfish.
Abstract: Accurate estimates of abundance are imperative for successful conservation and management. Classical, stratified abundance estimators provide unbiased estimates of abundance, but such estimators ma...

Journal ArticleDOI
27 May 2014-PeerJ
TL;DR: This work estimates the intrinsic risk of extinction for a typical generic manta ray using a variant of the classic Euler–Lotka demographic model, and shows that it is possible to derive important insights into the demography extinction risk of data-poor species using well-established life history theory.
Abstract: Background: The directed harvest and global trade in the gill plates of mantas, and devil rays, has led to increased fishing pressure and steep population declines in some locations. The slow life history, particularly of the manta rays, is cited as a key reason why such species have little capacity to withstand directed fisheries. Here, we place their life history and demography within the context of other sharks and rays. Methods: Despite the limited availability of data, we use life history theory and comparative analysis to estimate the intrinsic risk of extinction (as indexed by the maximum intrinsic rate of population increase r(max)) for a typical generic manta ray using a variant of the classic Euler-Lotka demographic model. This model requires only three traits to calculate the maximum intrinsic population growth rate r(max): von Bertalanffy growth rate, annual pup production and age at maturity. To account for the uncertainty in life history parameters, we created plausible parameter ranges and propagate these uncertainties through the model to calculate a distribution of the plausible range of rmax values. Results. The maximum population growth rate rmax of manta ray is most sensitive to the length of the reproductive cycle, and the median rmax of 0.116 year(-1) 95th percentile [0.089-0.139] is one of the lowest known of the 106 sharks and rays for which we have comparable demographic information. Discussion: In common with other unprotected, unmanaged, high-value largebodied sharks and rays the combination of very low population growth rates of manta rays, combined with the high value of their gill rakers and the international nature of trade, is highly likely to lead to rapid depletion and potential local extinction unless a rapid conservation management response occurs worldwide. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to derive important insights into the demography extinction risk of data-poor species using well-established life history theory.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The summer range of belugas ( Delphinapterus leucas ) and narwhals ( Monodon monoceros ) in the Canadian High Arctic was surveyed from 31 July to 3 August 1996 with a visual aerial survey of offshore areas and photographic aerial surveys of concentration areas.
Abstract: The summer range of belugas ( Delphinapterus leucas ) and narwhals ( Monodon monoceros ) in Prince Regent Inlet, Barrow Strait and Peel Sound in the Canadian High Arctic was surveyed from 31 July to 3 August 1996 with a visual aerial survey of offshore areas and photographic aerial surveys of concentration areas. The visual survey estimate based on the number of belugas visible to the observers using systematic line transect methods was 10,347 (cv = 0.28). This included corrections for whales that were missed by the observers, observations without distance measurements and an estimate of 1,949 (cv=0.22) belugas from a photographic survey in southern Peel Sound. Using data from belugas tagged with satellite-linked time-depth recorders, the estimate was adjusted for individuals that were diving during the survey which resulted in an estimate of 18,930 belugas (cv = 0.28). Finally, counts of belugas in estuaries, corrected for estuarine surface time, were added to provide a complete estimate of 21,213 belugas (95% CI 10,985 to 32,619). The estimated number of narwhals corrected for sightings that were missed by observers was 16,364 (cv = 0.24). Adjusting this for sightings without distance information and correcting for whales that were submerged produced an estimate of 45,358 narwhals (95% CI 23,397 to 87,932).

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The taxonomic diversity, geographic distributions, life history, ecology and fisheries of tarpons, ladyfishes and bonefishes (members of the subdivision Elopomorpha), which share many life history and habitat use characteristics that make them vulnerable to environmental and anthropogenic stresses in coastal environments, were assessed in this paper.
Abstract: We assessed the taxonomic diversity, geographic distributions, life history, ecology and fisheries of tarpons, ladyfishes and bonefishes (members of the subdivision Elopomorpha), which share many life history and habitat use characteristics that make them vulnerable to environmental and anthropogenic stresses in coastal environments. This assessment of Red List status for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature reveals three species considered near threatened or vulnerable, three species of least concern, and 11 data-deficient species. Although the taxonomy of tarpons appears stable, it is less so for ladyfishes and bonefishes. In aggregate, these species are distributed circumtropically and foray into temperate zones. Although they spawn in marine habitats, larvae of many species disperse into estuarine habitats, which are declining in area or degrading in quality. Several species support high-value recreational fisheries, or culturally important small-scale commercial and artisanal fisheries. Nonetheless, no formal stock assessment exists for any species, so improved data collection, information sharing and assessment techniques should facilitate socio-economic development of individual fisheries. Catch-and-release recreational fisheries that promote conservation of tarpon and bonefishes in some regions are promising models to improve the conservation status of these fishes elsewhere, as well as the economic development of these fishing communities. Most tarpons, ladyfishes and bonefishes likely face significant challenges from anthropogenically mediated habitat loss and alteration, and several are vulnerable to both habitat degradation and overfishing. Broader protection and enhancements to fisheries habitat in all regions will benefit these as well as many other coastal fishery species.

01 Mar 2014
TL;DR: In this article, the authors outline the requirements and challenges for the implementation of dynamic ocean management (DOM) techniques and give examples of how these policies could be expanded to provide for a broader application of DOM.
Abstract: The ocean is a dynamic environment with ocean currents and winds moving surface waters across large distances. Many animals that live in the ocean, particularly in offshore regions, are mobile in space and in time, as are most human users. Spatial management responses have typically partitioned the ocean into different regions with fixed management boundaries. In some regions a particular activity may be forbidden, in another it may be permitted but regulated, and in others it may be allowed without any regulation. In contrast, dynamic ocean management (DOM) changes in space and time in response to the shifting nature of the ocean and its users. DOM techniques have been applied in a limited number of situations around the world—notably for fisheries—to regulate or restrict the capture of a particular marine species. DOM requires scientific, technological, management, legal, and policy capacity across a range of elements. The article outlines seven of these elements and describes requirements and challenges for their implementation. Specifically, the elements considered are: (1) tools and data collection, (2) data upload and management, (3) data processing, (4) data delivery, (5) decision-making, (6) implementation, and (7) enforcement. Not all elements may be required and not all management, policy, and legal issues will be relevant to all applications. However, these elements represent major considerations in the application of DOM. Overall, we find that the scientific and technological capacity for DOM is strong but there are a range of underutilized policy applications. We give examples of how these policies could be expanded to provide for a broader application of dynamic ocean management. There are distinct regional variations in the capacity to implement these elements whether on a voluntary or compulsory basis. To use DOM effectively, the science and technology required for DOM needs to be better integrated with the enabling policy.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the relative quality and the amount of effort spent collecting data to derive bare earth topography from an array of ground-based and airborne survey techniques were quantified and compared across a diverse range of wadeable streams.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Overall, the analysis supports the idea that genes linked to migration play an important role in divergence in migratory songbirds, but there is no compelling evidence that the observed genomic islands are facilitating adaptive divergence in migration behaviour.
Abstract: Next-generation sequencing has made it possible to begin asking questions about the process of divergence at the level of the genome. For example, recently, there has been a debate around the role of 'genomic islands of divergence' (i.e. blocks of outlier loci) in facilitating the process of speciation-with-gene-flow. The Swainson's thrush, Catharus ustulatus, is a migratory songbird with two genetically distinct subspecies that differ in a number of traits known to be involved in reproductive isolation in birds (plumage coloration, song and migratory behaviour), despite contemporary gene flow along a secondary contact zone. Here, we use RAD-PE sequencing to test emerging hypotheses about the process of divergence at the level of the genome and identify genes and gene regions involved in differentiation in this migratory songbird. Our analyses revealed distinct genomic islands on 15 of the 23 chromosomes and an accelerated rate of divergence on the Z chromosome, one of the avian sex chromosomes. Further, an analysis of loci linked to traits known to be involved in reproductive isolation in songbirds showed that genes linked to migration are significantly more differentiated than expected by chance, but that these genes lie primarily outside the genomic islands. Overall, our analysis supports the idea that genes linked to migration play an important role in divergence in migratory songbirds, but we find no compelling evidence that the observed genomic islands are facilitating adaptive divergence in migratory behaviour.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The use of shellfish for coastal nitrogen remediation has been proposed, but formal incorporation into nitrogen management programs is lagging as mentioned in this paper, which makes sense from environmental, economic and social perspectives, but challenges must be overcome for large-scale implementation to be possible.
Abstract: Excess nutrients in the coastal environment have been linked to a host of environmental problems, and nitrogen reduction efforts have been a top priority of resource managers for decades. The use of shellfish for coastal nitrogen remediation has been proposed, but formal incorporation into nitrogen management programs is lagging. Including shellfish aquaculture in existing nitrogen management programs makes sense from environmental, economic, and social perspectives, but challenges must be overcome for large-scale implementation to be possible.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Lower trophic levels within the eastern Bering Sea respond to climate-mediated changes on a variety of time scales, including those shorter than the commonly accepted quasi-decadal time periods, demonstrating that lack of resilience or inertia at the lowest trophics affects production at higher trophIC levels and must be considered in management strategy evaluations of living marine resources.
Abstract: Zooplankton are critical to energy transfer between higher and lower trophic levels in the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem. Previous studies from the southeastern Bering Sea shelf documented substantial differences in zooplankton taxa in the Middle and Inner Shelf Domains between warm and cold years. Our investigation expands this analysis into the northern Bering Sea and the south Outer Domain, looking at zooplankton community structure during a period of climate-mediated, large-scale change. Elevated air temperatures in the early 2000s resulted in regional warming and low sea-ice extent in the southern shelf whereas the late 2000s were characterized by cold winters, extensive spring sea ice, and a well-developed pool of cold water over the entire Middle Domain. The abundance of large zooplankton taxa such as Calanus spp. ( C. marshallae and C. glacialis) , and Parasagitta elegans , increased from warm to cold periods, while the abundance of gelatinous zooplankton (Cnidaria) and small taxa decreased. Biomass followed the same trends as abundance, except that the biomass of small taxa in the southeastern Bering Sea remained constant due to changes in abundance of small copepod taxa (increases in Acartia spp. and Pseudocalanus spp. and decreases in Oithona spp.). Statistically significant changes in zooplankton community structure and individual species were greatest in the Middle Domain, but were evident in all shelf domains, and in both the northern and southern portions of the eastern shelf. Changes in community structure did not occur abruptly during the transition from warm to cold, but seemed to begin gradually and build as the influence of the sea ice and cold water temperatures persisted. The change occurred one year earlier in the northern than the southern Middle Shelf. These and previous observations demonstrate that lower trophic levels within the eastern Bering Sea respond to climate-mediated changes on a variety of time scales, including those shorter than the commonly accepted quasi-decadal time periods. This lack of resilience or inertia at the lowest trophic levels affects production at higher trophic levels and must be considered in management strategy evaluations of living marine resources.

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jun 2014-Oikos
TL;DR: It is found that better forecasts were correlated with attributes of slow growing species: large maximum age and size for fishes and high trophic level for birds.
Abstract: Short-term forecasts based on time series of counts or survey data are widely used in population biology to provide advice concerning the management, harvest and conservation of natural populations. A common approach to produce these forecasts uses time-series models, of different types, fit to time series of counts. Similar time-series models are used in many other disciplines, however relative to the data available in these other disciplines, population data are often unusually short and noisy and models that perform well for data from other disciplines may not be appropriate for population data. In order to study the performance of time-series forecasting models for natural animal population data, we assembled 2379 time series of vertebrate population indices from actual surveys. Our data were comprised of three vastly different types: highly variable (marine fish productivity), strongly cyclic (adult salmon counts), and small variance but long-memory (bird and mammal counts). We tested the predictive performance of 49 different forecasting models grouped into three broad classes: autoregressive time-series models, non-linear regression-type models and non-parametric time-series models. Low-dimensional parametric autoregressive models gave the most accurate forecasts across a wide range of taxa; the most accurate model was one that simply treated the most recent observation as the forecast. More complex parametric and non-parametric models performed worse, except when applied to highly cyclic species. Across taxa, certain life history characteristics were correlated with lower forecast error; specifically, we found that better forecasts were correlated with attributes of slow growing species: large maximum age and size for fishes and high trophic level for birds. © 2014 Nordic Society Oikos.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine the more recent entry of seafood into consumer social movements, and offer suggestions on how fisheries management could better govern for sustainable food systems, and provide further ideas about food, sustainability and governance.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The degree of alterations in the survival, growth, and development of early life stages of summer flounder due to elevated-CO 2 levels suggests that this species will be increasingly challenged by future ocean acidification.
Abstract: . The limited available evidence about effects on marine fishes of high CO2 and associated acidification of oceans suggests that effects will differ across species, be subtle, and may interact with other stressors. This report is on the responses of an array of early life history features of summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus), an ecologically and economically important flatfish of the inshore and nearshore waters of the Mid-Atlantic Bight (USA), to experimental manipulation of CO2 levels. Relative survival of summer flounder embryos in local ambient conditions (775 μatm pCO2, 7.8 pH) was reduced to 48% when maintained at intermediate experimental conditions (1808 μatm pCO2, 7.5 pH), and to 16% when maintained at the most elevated CO2 treatment (4714 ppm pCO2, 7.1 pH). This pattern of reduced survival of embryos at high-CO2 levels at constant temperature was consistent among offspring of three females used as experimental subjects. No reduction in survival with CO2 was observed for larvae during the first four weeks of larval life (experiment ended at 28 d post-hatching (dph) when larvae were initiating metamorphosis). Estimates of sizes, shapes, and developmental status of larvae based on images of live larvae showed larvae were initially longer and faster growing when reared at intermediate- and high-CO2 levels. This pattern of longer larvae – but with less energy reserves at hatching – was expressed through the first half of the larval period (14 dph). Larvae from the highest-CO2 conditions initiated metamorphosis at earlier ages and smaller sizes than those from intermediate- and ambient-CO2 conditions. Tissue damage was evident in larvae as early as 7 dph from both elevated-CO2 levels. Damage included dilation of liver sinusoids and veins, focal hyperplasia on the epithelium, and separation of the trunk muscle bundles. Cranio-facial features changed with CO2 levels in an age-dependent manner. Skeletal elements of larvae from ambient-CO2 environments were comparable or smaller than those from elevated-CO2 environments when younger (7 and 14 dph) but were larger at developmental stage at older ages (21 to 28 dph), a result consistent with the accelerated size-development trajectory of larvae at higher-CO2 environments based on analysis of external features. The degree of alterations in the survival, growth, and development of early life stages of summer flounder due to elevated-CO2 levels suggests that this species will be increasingly challenged by future ocean acidification. Further experimental studies on marine fishes and comparative analyses among those studies are warranted in order to identify the species, life stages, ecologies, and responses likely to be most sensitive to increased levels of CO2 and acidity in future ocean waters. A strategy is proposed for achieving these goals.

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Apr 2014-Geoderma
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors applied geochemical fingerprints to determine relative contributions of sediment sources and developed a Bayesian-mixing model that estimates probability distributions of source contributions to a mixture associated with multiple sources for assessing the uncertainty estimation in sediment fingerprinting in the Hiv catchment, Iran.