This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Handisyde, N., Telfer,
T. C. and Ross, L. G. (2017), Vulnerability of aquaculture-related livelihoods to
changing climate at the global scale. Fish and Fisheries, 18: 466–488, which
has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12186. This
article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley
Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.
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VULNERABILITY OF AQUACULTURE RELATED LIVELIHOODS TO CHANGING
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CLIMATE AT THE GLOBAL SCALE
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Neil Handisyde, Trevor C Telfer, Lindsay G Ross
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Institute of aquaculture, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK
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Contact details:
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Professor Lindsay G Ross, Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling. Stirling FK9 4LA, UK.
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Tel: 01786 467882
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Fax: 01786 472133
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Email: l.g.ross@stir.ac.uk
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Running Title: Aquaculture and climate change
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Abstract:
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There is now a strong consensus that during the 20
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century, and especially during recent
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decades, the earth has experienced a significant warming trend with projections suggesting
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additional further warming during the 21
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century. Associated with this warming trend are
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changes in climate that are expected to show substantial spatial variability across the earth’s
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surface. Globally fish production has continued to increase during recent years at a rate
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exceeding that of human population growth. However the contribution from capture
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fisheries has remained largely static since the late 1980s with the increase in production
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being accounted for by dramatic growth in the aquaculture sector.In this study the
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distribution of vulnerability of aquaculture related livelihoods to climate change was
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assessed at the global scale based on the concept of vulnerability as a function of sensitivity
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to climate change, exposure to climate change, and adaptive capacity. Use was made of
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national level statistics along with gridded climate and population data. Climate change
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scenarios were supplied using the MAGICC/SCENGEN climate modelling tools. Analysis was
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conducted for aquaculture in freshwater, brackish, and marine environments with outputs
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represented as a series of raster images. A number of Asian countries (Vietnam, Bangladesh,
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Laos, and China) were indicated as most vulnerable to impacts on freshwater production.
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Vietnam, Thailand, Egypt and Ecuador stood out in terms of brackish water production.
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Norway and Chile were considered most vulnerable to impacts on marine production while
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a number of Asian countries (China, Vietnam, and the Philippines) also ranked highly.
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Key Words: Climate change, vulnerability, aquaculture, livelihoods, adaptability
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Table of Contents:
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Introduction
Materials and Methods
Study extent and data selection
Overview of model structure
Data standardisation
Sub-model construction
Sensitivity
Exposure
Adaptive capacity
Vulnerability assessment: model component
combination and weightings
Results
Discussion
Conclusion
References
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Introduction:
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Globally, fish production has increased steadily over the last five decades at a rate exceeding
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that of human population growth so that in 2012 mean World per capita fish consumption
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was estimated at 19.2kg compared with 9.9kg in the 1960s (FAO, 2014). This increase is
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generally seen as beneficial from a health perspective with fish consumption providing an
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important source of high quality protein, essential fatty acids and micronutrients
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(Kawarazuka, 2010). In many poorer regions where fish represents a significant portion of
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consumed animal protein, and where diet in general may lack diversity, the contribution of
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fish to overall nutrition may be especially significant (Belton et al., 2014, Thilsted, 2013).
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While total global fish production has continued to increase, the proportion supplied by
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capture fisheries has remained largely static since the late 80’s onwards with increased
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production accounted for by the dramatic growth in the aquaculture sector which was
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estimated at 42.15% of total fisheries production in 2012 (FAO, 2014). Inland fish
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production represents an increasingly large proportion of total global fisheries production;
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33.86% in 2012 compared with 28.43% in 2007 (FAO, 2014). As with total global production
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the growth of the inland fishery sector is largely accounted for by a rapidly expanding
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aquaculture sector representing 78.32% of global inland fisheries production in 2012(FAO,
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2014), with pond culture of warm water fish species playing the largest role (Dugan et al.,
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2007).
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As well as providing an important source of food, aquaculture makes significant economic
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contributions in many regions and provides income and employment for an increasingly
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large number of people. It is estimated that around 16.5 million people are involved in
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aquaculture worldwide, with approximately 16 million of these in Asia (FAO, 2012). As well
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as those directly involved in aquaculture production there will be many more individuals
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whose livelihoods are at least partially connected to the aquaculture sector via the supply of
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goods and services such as: transportation, ice making, feed production and marketing.
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Overall, it is estimated that more than 100 million people depend on aquaculture for a
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living, either as employees in the production and support sectors or as their dependants
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(FAO, 2012).
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There is now a very strong consensus that the earth has experienced a significant warming
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trend during the 20th century, especially the second half, and continuing to the present
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time with an average global temperature increase in the region of 0.72°C for the period
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1951-2012 (IPCC, 2013). There is also strong agreement that this trend is at least partly a
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result of human driven increases in greenhouse gas concentrations (Cook et al., 2013, IPCC,
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2013). It is likely that we are committed to at least some further warming as a function of
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