Showing papers on "Peak ground acceleration published in 2016"

Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal’s 2015 Gorkha earthquake

Abstract: The Gorkha earthquake (M 7.8) on 25 April 2015 and later aftershocks struck South Asia, killing ~9,000 and damaging a large region. Supported by a large campaign of responsive satellite data acquisitions over the earthquake disaster zone, our team undertook a satellite image survey of the earthquakes’ induced geohazards in Nepal and China and an assessment of the geomorphic, tectonic, and lithologic controls on quake-induced landslides. Timely analysis and communication aided response and recovery and informed decision makers. We mapped 4,312 co-seismic and post-seismic landslides. We also surveyed 491 glacier lakes for earthquake damage, but found only 9 landslide-impacted lakes and no visible satellite evidence of outbursts. Landslide densities correlate with slope, peak ground acceleration, surface downdrop, and specific metamorphic lithologies and large plutonic intrusions.

Strong ground motion in the Kathmandu Valley during the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake

Abstract: On 25 April 2015, a large earthquake of Mw 7.8 occurred along the Main Himalayan Thrust fault in central Nepal. It was caused by a collision of the Indian Plate beneath the Eurasian Plate. The epicenter was near the Gorkha region, 80 km northwest of Kathmandu, and the rupture propagated toward east from the epicentral region passing through the sediment-filled Kathmandu Valley. This event resulted in over 8000 fatalities, mostly in Kathmandu and the adjacent districts. We succeeded in observing strong ground motions at our four observation sites (one rock site and three sedimentary sites) in the Kathmandu Valley during this devastating earthquake. While the observed peak ground acceleration values were smaller than the predicted ones that were derived from the use of a ground motion prediction equation, the observed peak ground velocity values were slightly larger than the predicted ones. The ground velocities observed at the rock site (KTP) showed a simple velocity pulse, resulting in monotonic-step displacements associated with the permanent tectonic offset. The vertical ground velocities observed at the sedimentary sites had the same pulse motions that were observed at the rock site. In contrast, the horizontal ground velocities as well as accelerations observed at three sedimentary sites showed long duration with conspicuous long-period oscillations, due to the valley response. The horizontal valley response was characterized by large amplification (about 10) and prolonged oscillations. However, the predominant period and envelope shape of their oscillations differed from site to site, indicating a complicated basin structure. Finally, on the basis of the velocity response spectra, we show that the horizontal long-period oscillations on the sedimentary sites had enough destructive power to damage high-rise buildings with natural periods of 3 to 5 s.

A seismologically consistent expression for the total area and volume of earthquake‐triggered landsliding

Abstract: We present a new, seismologically consistent expression for the total area and volume of populations of earthquake-triggered landslides. This model builds on a set of scaling relationships between key parameters, such as landslide spatial density, seismic ground acceleration, fault length, earthquake source depth, and seismic moment. To assess the model we have assembled and normalized a catalog of landslide inventories for 40 shallow, continental earthquakes. Low landscape steepness causes systematic overprediction of the total area and volume of landslides. When this effect is accounted for, the model predicts the total landslide volume of 63% of 40 cases to within a factor 2 of the volume estimated from observations (R2=0.76). The prediction of total landslide area is also sensitive to the landscape steepness, but less so than the total volume, and it appears to be sensitive to controls on the landslide size-frequency distribution, and possibly the shaking duration. Some outliers are likely associated with exceptionally strong rock mass in the epicentral area, while others may be related to seismic source complexities ignored by the model. However, the close match between prediction and estimate for about two thirds of cases in our database suggests that rock mass strength is similar in many cases and that our simple seismic model is often adequate, despite the variety of lithologies and tectonic settings covered. This makes our expression suitable for integration into landscape evolution models and application to the anticipation or rapid assessment of secondary hazards associated with earthquakes.

On the Relationship between Fourier and Response Spectra: Implications for the Adjustment of Empirical Ground‐Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs)

Abstract: The functional form of empirical response spectral ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) is often derived using concepts borrowed from Fourier spectral modeling of ground motion As these GMPEs are subsequently calibrated with empirical observations, this may not appear to pose any major problems in the prediction of ground motion for a particular earthquake scenario However, the assumption that Fourier spectral concepts persist for response spectra can lead to undesirable consequences when it comes to the adjustment of response spectral GMPEs to represent conditions not covered in the original empirical data set In this context, a couple of important questions arise, for example, what are the distinctions and/or similarities between Fourier and response spectra of ground motions? And, if they are different, then what is the mechanism responsible for such differences and how do adjustments that are made to Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) manifest in response spectra? The present article explores the relationship between the Fourier and response spectrum of ground motion by using random vibration theory (RVT) With a simple Brune (1970, 1971) source model, RVT‐generated acceleration spectra for a fixed magnitude and distance scenario are used The RVT analyses reveal that the scaling of low oscillator‐frequency response spectral ordinates can be treated as being equivalent to the scaling of the corresponding Fourier spectral ordinates However, the high oscillator‐frequency response spectral ordinates are controlled by a rather wide band of Fourier spectral ordinates In fact, the peak ground acceleration, counter to the popular perception that it is a reflection of the high‐frequency characteristics of ground motion, is controlled by the entire Fourier spectrum of ground motion Additionally, this article demonstrates how an adjustment made to FAS is similar or different to the same adjustment made to response spectral ordinates For this purpose, two cases: adjustments to the stress parameter (Δ σ ) (source term), and adjustments to the attributes reflecting site response ( V S ‐ κ 0 ) are considered

Numerical Investigation of Seismically Induced Rock Mass Fatigue as a Mechanism Contributing to the Progressive Failure of Deep-Seated Landslides

Abstract: The importance of earthquakes in triggering catastrophic failure of deep-seated landslides has long been recognized and is well documented in the literature. However, seismic waves do not only act as a trigger mechanism. They also contribute to the progressive failure of large rock slopes as a fatigue process that is highly efficient in deforming and damaging rock slopes. Given the typically long recurrence time and unpredictability of earthquakes, field-based investigations of co-seismic rock slope deformations are difficult. We present here a conceptual numerical study that demonstrates how repeated earthquake activity over time can destabilize a relatively strong rock slope by creating and propagating new fractures until the rock mass is sufficiently weakened to initiate catastrophic failure. Our results further show that the damage and displacement induced by a certain earthquake strongly depends on pre-existing damage. In fact, the damage history of the slope influences the earthquake-induced displacement as much as earthquake ground motion characteristics such as the peak ground acceleration. Because seismically induced fatigue is: (1) characterized by low repeat frequency, (2) represents a large amplitude damage event, and (3) weakens the entire rock mass, it differs from other fatigue processes. Hydro-mechanical cycles, for instance, occur at higher repeat frequencies (i.e., annual cycles), lower amplitude, and only affect limited parts of the rock mass. Thus, we also compare seismically induced fatigue to seasonal hydro-mechanical fatigue. While earthquakes can progressively weaken even a strong, competent rock mass, hydro-mechanical fatigue requires a higher degree of pre-existing damage to be effective. We conclude that displacement rates induced by hydro-mechanical cycling are indicative of the degree of pre-existing damage in the rock mass. Another indicator of pre-existing damage is the seismic amplification pattern of a slope; frequency-dependent amplification factors are highly sensitive to changes in the fracture network within the slope. Our study demonstrates the importance of including fatigue-related damage history—in particular, seismically induced fatigue—into landslide stability and hazard assessments.

On the Relationship between Fourier and Response Spectra: Implications for the Adjustment of Empirical Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs)

Abstract: The functional form of empirical response spectral ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) is often derived using concepts borrowed from Fourier spectral modeling of ground motion. As these GMPEs are subsequently calibrated with empirical observations, this may not appear to pose any major problems in the prediction of ground motion for a particular earthquake scenario. However, the assumption that Fourier spectral concepts persist for response spectra can lead to undesirable consequences when it comes to the adjustment of response spectral GMPEs to represent conditions not covered in the original empirical data set. In this context, a couple of important questions arise, for example, what are the distinctions and/or similarities between Fourier and response spectra of ground motions? And, if they are different, then what is the mechanism responsible for such differences and how do adjustments that are made to Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) manifest in response spectra? The present article explores the relationship between the Fourier and response spectrum of ground motion by using random vibration theory (RVT). With a simple Brune (1970, 1971) source model, RVT‐generated acceleration spectra for a fixed magnitude and distance scenario are used. The RVT analyses reveal that the scaling of low oscillator‐frequency response spectral ordinates can be treated as being equivalent to the scaling of the corresponding Fourier spectral ordinates. However, the high oscillator‐frequency response spectral ordinates are controlled by a rather wide band of Fourier spectral ordinates. In fact, the peak ground acceleration, counter to the popular perception that it is a reflection of the high‐frequency characteristics of ground motion, is controlled by the entire Fourier spectrum of ground motion. Additionally, this article demonstrates how an adjustment made to FAS is similar or different to the same adjustment made to response spectral ordinates. For this purpose, two cases: adjustments to the stress parameter (Δ σ ) (source term), and adjustments to the attributes reflecting site response ( V S ‐ κ 0 ) are considered.

Optimized volume models of earthquake-triggered landslides.

Abstract: In this study, we proposed three optimized models for calculating the total volume of landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan, China Mw 7.9 earthquake. First, we calculated the volume of each deposit of 1,415 landslides triggered by the quake based on pre- and post-quake DEMs in 20 m resolution. The samples were used to fit the conventional landslide “volume-area” power law relationship and the 3 optimized models we proposed, respectively. Two data fitting methods, i.e. log-transformed-based linear and original data-based nonlinear least square, were employed to the 4 models. Results show that original data-based nonlinear least square combining with an optimized model considering length, width, height, lithology, slope, peak ground acceleration, and slope aspect shows the best performance. This model was subsequently applied to the database of landslides triggered by the quake except for two largest ones with known volumes. It indicates that the total volume of the 196,007 landslides is about 1.2 × 1010 m3 in deposit materials and 1 × 1010 m3 in source areas, respectively. The result from the relationship of quake magnitude and entire landslide volume related to individual earthquake is much less than that from this study, which reminds us the necessity to update the power-law relationship.

Ground Motion Model for the Vertical-to-Horizontal (V/H) Ratios of PGA, PGV, and Response Spectra

Abstract: We present a ground motion model (GMM) for the vertical-to-horizontal (V/H) ratios of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5%-damped pseudo-acceleration response spectra at periods r...

Vertical Ground Motion Model for PGA, PGV, and Linear Response Spectra Using the NGA-West2 Database

Abstract: We summarize the development of the NGA-West2 Bozorgnia-Campbell empirical ground motion model (GMM) for the vertical components of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and 5...

Earthquake potential revealed by tidal influence on earthquake size–frequency statistics

Abstract: Tidal triggering of earthquakes is debated. Analysis of global earthquake catalogue data compared with tidal stress histories suggests that the probability of a large earthquake is greater during times of maximum tidal stress amplitude.

Seismic-hazard forecast for 2016 including induced and natural earthquakes in the central and eastern United States

Abstract: The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a one‐year (2016) probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for the central and eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes that are constructed with probabilistic methods using alternative data and inputs. This hazard assessment builds on our 2016 final model (Petersen et al. , 2016) by adding sensitivity studies, illustrating hazard in new ways, incorporating new population data, and discussing potential improvements. The model considers short‐term seismic activity rates (primarily 2014–2015) and assumes that the activity rates will remain stationary over short time intervals. The final model considers different ways of categorizing induced and natural earthquakes by incorporating two equally weighted earthquake rate submodels that are composed of alternative earthquake inputs for catalog duration, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground‐motion models. These alternatives represent uncertainties on how we calculate earthquake occurrence and the diversity of opinion within the science community. In this article, we also test sensitivity to the minimum moment magnitude between M 4 and M 4.7 and the choice of applying a declustered catalog with b =1.0 rather than the full catalog with b =1.3. We incorporate two earthquake rate submodels: in the informed submodel we classify earthquakes as induced or natural, and in the adaptive submodel we do not differentiate. The alternative submodel hazard maps both depict high hazard and these are combined in the final model. Results depict several ground‐shaking measures as well as intensity and include maps showing a high‐hazard level (1% probability of exceedance in 1 year or greater). Ground motions reach 0.6 g horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) in north‐central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2 g PGA in the Raton basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in north‐central Texas near Dallas–Fort Worth. The chance of having levels of ground motions corresponding to modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) VI or greater earthquake shaking is 2%–12% per year in north‐central Oklahoma and southern Kansas and New Madrid similar to the chance of damage at sites in high‐hazard portions of California caused by natural earthquakes. Hazard is also significant in the Raton basin of Colorado/New Mexico; north‐central Arkansas; Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas; and in a few other areas. Hazard probabilities are much lower (by about half or more) for exceeding MMI VII or VIII. Hazard is 3‐ to 10‐fold higher near some areas of active‐induced earthquakes than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), which did not consider induced earthquakes. This study in conjunction with the LandScan TM Database (2013) indicates that about 8 million people live in areas of active injection wells that have a greater than 1% chance of experiencing damaging ground shaking (MMI≥VI) in 2016. The final model has high uncertainty, and engineers, regulators, and industry should use these assessments cautiously to make informed decisions on mitigating the potential effects of induced and natural earthquakes.

Prompt gravity signal induced by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake.

Abstract: Transient gravity changes are expected to occur at all distances during an earthquake rupture, even before the arrival of seismic waves. Here we report on the search of such a prompt gravity signal in data recorded by a superconducting gravimeter and broadband seismometers during the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. During the earthquake rupture, a signal exceeding the background noise is observed with a statistical significance higher than 99% and an amplitude of a fraction of μGal, consistent in sign and order of magnitude with theoretical predictions from a first-order model. While prompt gravity signal detection with state-of-the-art gravimeters and seismometers is challenged by background seismic noise, its robust detection with gravity gradiometers under development could open new directions in earthquake seismology, and overcome fundamental limitations of current earthquake early-warning systems imposed by the propagation speed of seismic waves.

Estimation of Earthquake Hazard Parameters from Incomplete Data Files. Part III. Incorporation of Uncertainty of Earthquake-Occurrence Model

Abstract: Most probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis procedures require that at least three seismic source parameters be known, namely the mean seismic activity rate λ , the Gutenberg–Richter b ‐value, and the area‐characteristic (seismogenic source) maximum possible earthquake magnitude m max. In almost all currently used seismic‐hazard assessment procedures that utilize these three parameters, it is explicitly assumed that all three remain constant over time and space. However, closer examination of most earthquake catalogs has indicated that significant spatial and temporal variations existed in the seismic activity rate λ , as well as in the Gutenberg–Richter b ‐value. In this study, the maximum likelihood estimation of these earthquake hazard parameters considers the incompleteness of the catalogs, the uncertainty in the earthquake magnitude determination, as well as the uncertainty associated with the applied earthquake‐occurrence models. The uncertainty in the earthquake‐occurrence models is introduced by assuming that both the mean seismic activity rate λ and the Gutenberg–Richter b ‐value are random variables, each described by the gamma distribution. This approach results in the extension of the classic frequency–magnitude Gutenberg–Richter relation and the Poisson distribution of the number of earthquakes with their compounded counterparts (Benjamin, 1968; Campbell, 1982, 1983). The proposed procedure was applied in the estimation of the seismicity parameters in an area that had experienced the strongest and most devastating earthquake in contemporary South African history, namely the 29 September 1969 M w 6.3 Ceres–Tulbagh event. In this example, it was shown that the introduction of uncertainty in the earthquake‐occurrence model reduced the mean return periods, leading to an increase of the estimated seismic hazard. Additionally, this study confirmed that accounting for magnitude uncertainties had the opposite effect, that is, it brought about increases in the return periods, or, equivalently, a reduction of the estimated seismic hazard.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Taiwan

Abstract: The Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) was established to assess the seismic hazard and risk for Taiwan by considering the social and economic impacts of various components from geology, seismology, and engineering. This paper gives the first version of TEM probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Taiwan in these aspects. We named it TEM PSHA2015. The model adopts the source parameters of 38 seismogenic structures identified by TEM geologists. In addition to specific fault sourcebased categorization, seismic activities are categorized as shallow, subduction intraplate, and subduction interplate events. To evaluate the potential ground-shaking resulting from each seismic source, the corresponding ground-motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction earthquakes are adopted. The highest hazard probability is evaluated to be in Southwestern Taiwan and the Longitudinal Valley of Eastern Taiwan. Among the special municipalities in the highly populated Western Taiwan region, Taichung, Tainan, and New Taipei City are evaluated to have the highest hazard. Tainan has the highest seismic hazard for peak ground acceleration in the model based on TEM fault parameters. In terms of pseudo-spectral acceleration, Tainan has higher hazard over short spectral periods, whereas Taichung has higher hazard over long spectral periods. The analysis indicates the importance of earthquake-resistant designs for low-rise buildings in Tainan and high-rise buildings in Taichung.

The Cephalonia, Greece, January 26 (M6.1) and February 3, 2014 (M6.0) earthquakes: near-fault ground motion and effects on soil and structures

Abstract: The M61 and M60 Cephalonia (Greece) earthquakes on 26 January and 3 February 2014, were right lateral strike-slip events Both shocks occurred on the Cephalonia Transform Fault zone Strong ground motion was recorded in the near-fault at the permanent and temporary accelerograph network of ITSAK, with the highest to date acquired peak ground acceleration in Greece (PGA = 077 g at Chavriata-CHV1 station) Local site effects in combination with source effects, have strongly affected near-fault ground motion Landslides, rock sliding effects, behavior of stone masonry retaining walls, road embankments, road network failures, ports and liquefaction are also investigated and presented Seismic response of different type of structures at the stricken area is presented and comparison of the near-fault recorded ground motion with seismic code provisions in Greece is attempted Although, near-fault seismic excitation imposed to Cephalonia buildings was much higher than the design values foreseen by the old and recent codes, corresponding damage was much lower than one could expect The over-strength of structures together with a long established good construction practice on the island of Cephalonia could explain their favourable response to high seismic actions, overwhelming those of seismic code provisions However, buildings constructed according to the 1959 Greek Seismic Code or earlier, should be investigated in more detail and if high vulnerability is detected, it is necessary to strengthen them according to modern seismic code provisions

Landslide susceptibility assessment of the region affected by the 25 April 2015 Gorkha earthquake of Nepal

Abstract: Nepal was hit by a 7.8 magnitude earthquake on 25th April, 2015. The main shock and many large aftershocks generated a large number of coseismic landslips in central Nepal. We have developed a landslide susceptibility map of the affected region based on the coseismic landslides collected from remotely sensed data and fieldwork, using bivariate statistical model with different landslide causative factors. From the investigation, it is observed that most of the coseismic landslides are independent of previous landslides. Out of 3,716 mapped landslides, we used 80% of them to develop a susceptibility map and the remaining 20% were taken for validating the model. A total of 11 different landslide-influencing parameters were considered. These include slope gradient, slope aspect, plan curvature, elevation, relative relief, Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), distance from epicenters of the mainshock and major aftershocks, lithology, distance of the landslide from the fault, fold, and drainage line. The success rate of 87.66% and the prediction rate of 86.87% indicate that the model is in good agreement between the developed susceptibility map and the existing landslides data. PGA, lithology, slope angle and elevation have played a major role in triggering the coseismic mass movements. This susceptibility map can be used for relocating the people in the affected regions as well as for future land development.

Two comparable earthquakes produced greatly different coseismic landslides: The 2015 Gorkha, Nepal and 2008 Wenchuan, China events

Abstract: The 2015 Gorkha Earthquake in Nepal and the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake in China occurred at the south and southeast margins of the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Both earthquakes had similar magnitudes of Mw 7.8 and 7.9, caused catastrophic loss of life and damage to property, and generated tens of thousands of landslides. Comparisons of pre- and post-quake satellite images supported by field investigations show that the Gorkha Earthquake triggered at least 2 064 large landslides (defined as covering an area ≥10 000 m2) over a ∼35 600 km2 region with a volume of (444–584)×106 (average 509×106) m3 and total area of 44.78×106 m2. In contrast, the Wenchuan Earthquake triggered 25 580 large landslides over a region of ∼44 000 km2 with a volume of (7 128–9 479)×106 (average 8 219×106) m3 and a total area of about 670.65×106 m2. Several controlling factors including topographic relief, slope steepness, and regional peak ground acceleration (PGA) were investigated to try to explain the great differences between the number, volume and area of the coseismic landslides associated with the two similar earthquakes. We found that the differences primarily arose from an unexpected factor, the dip angle of the seismogenic fault. This discovery should aid understanding the failure mechanisms of quake-triggered landslides, and suggests that more factors should be taken into consideration in estimating coseismic landslide volumes from earthquake magnitudes.

Prediction of ground motion parameters using randomized ANFIS (RANFIS)

Abstract: Prediction of ground motion parameters using hybrid soft computing technique.The neuro-fuzzy inference system uses Sugeno type fuzzy rules with a randomized fuzzy layer and a linear neural network output layer.Faster prediction of peak ground acceleration, velocity and displacement with increased accuracy. In this paper, a novel neuro-fuzzy learning machine called randomized adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (RANFIS) is proposed for predicting the parameters of ground motion associated with seismic signals. This advanced learning machine integrates the explicit knowledge of the fuzzy systems with the learning capabilities of neural networks, as in the case of conventional adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In RANFIS, to accelerate the learning speed without compromising the generalization capability, the fuzzy layer parameters are not tuned. The three time domain ground motion parameters which are predicted by the model are peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and peak ground displacement (PGD). The model is developed using the database released by PEER (Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center). Each ground motion parameter is related to mainly to four seismic parameters, namely earthquake magnitude, faulting mechanism, source to site distance and average soil shear wave velocity. The experimental results validate the improved performance of the machine, with lesser computation time compared to prior studies.

Probabilistic Earthquake–Tsunami Multi-Hazard Analysis: Application to the Tohoku Region, Japan

Abstract: This study develops a novel simulation-based procedure for the estimation of the likelihood that seismic intensity (in terms of spectral acceleration) and tsunami inundation (in terms of wave height), at a particular location, will exceed given hazard levels. The procedure accounts for a common physical rupture process for shaking and tsunami. Numerous realizations of stochastic slip distributions of earthquakes having different magnitudes are generated using scaling relationships of source parameters for subduction zones and then using a stochastic synthesis method of earthquake slip distribution. Probabilistic characterization of earthquake and tsunami intensity parameters is carried out by evaluating spatially correlated strong motion intensity through the adoption of ground motion prediction equations as a function of magnitude and shortest distance from the rupture plane and by solving nonlinear shallow water equations for tsunami wave propagation and inundation. The minimum number of simulations required to obtain stable estimates of seismic and tsunami intensity measures is investigated through a statistical bootstrap analysis. The main output of the proposed procedure is the earthquake-tsunami hazard curves representing, for each mean annual rate of occurrence, the corresponding seismic and inundation tsunami intensity measures. This simulation-based procedure facilitates the earthquake-tsunami hazard deaggregation with respect to magnitude and distance. Results are particularly useful for multi-hazard mapping purposes and the developed framework can be further extended to probabilistic earthquake-tsunami risk assessment.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Northeast India Region

Abstract: Northeast India bounded by latitudes 20°–30°N and longitudes 87°–98°E is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. This region has experienced several moderate-to-large-sized earthquakes, including the 12 June, 1897 Shillong earthquake (M w 8.1) and the 15 August, 1950 Assam earthquake (M w 8.7) which caused loss of human lives and significant damages to buildings highlighting the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region has been carried out using a unified moment magnitude catalog prepared by an improved General Orthogonal Regression methodology (Geophys J Int, 190:1091–1096, 2012; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Northeast India region, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, 2013) with events compiled from various databases (ISC, NEIC,GCMT, IMD) and other available catalogs. The study area has been subdivided into nine seismogenic source zones to account for local variation in tectonics and seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters are estimated for each of these source zones, which are input variables into seismic hazard estimation of a region. The seismic hazard analysis of the study region has been performed by dividing the area into grids of size 0.1° × 0.1°. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (S a) values (for periods of 0.2 and 1 s) have been evaluated at bedrock level corresponding to probability of exceedance (PE) of 50, 20, 10, 2 and 0.5 % in 50 years. These exceedance values correspond to return periods of 100, 225, 475, 2475, and 10,000 years, respectively. The seismic hazard maps have been prepared at the bedrock level, and it is observed that the seismic hazard estimates show a significant local variation in contrast to the uniform hazard value suggested by the Indian standard seismic code [Indian standard, criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, fifth edition, Part-I. Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, 2002]. Not only holistic treatment of earthquake catalog and seismogenic zones has been performed, but also higher resolution in spatial distribution could be achieved. The COV maps have been provided with the strong ground-motion maps under various conditions to show the confidence in the results obtained. Results obtained in the present study would be helpful for risk assessment and other disaster mitigation-related studies.

Joint approach combining damage and paleoseismology observations constrains the 1714 A.D. Bhutan earthquake at magnitude 8±0.5

Abstract: The region of Bhutan is thought to be the only segment of the Himalayas not having experienced a major earthquake over the past half millennium. A proposed explanation for this apparent seismic gap is partial accommodation of the India-Asia convergence further south across the Shillong Plateau, yet the seismic behavior of the Himalayan megathrust is unknown. Here we present historical documents from the region reporting on an earthquake in 1714 AD and geological evidence of surface rupture to constrain the latest large event in this area. We compute various earthquake scenarios using empirical scaling relationships relating magnitude with intensity, source location and rupture geometry. Our results constrain the 1714 AD earthquake to have ruptured the megathrust in Bhutan, most likely during a M7.5-8.5 event. This finding reclassifies the apparent seismic gap to a former information gap, and implies that the entire Himalayan arc has a high level of earthquake potential.

Real‐time capture of seismic waves using high‐rate multi‐GNSS observations: Application to the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal earthquake

Abstract: The variometric approach is investigated to measure real-time seismic waves induced by the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal earthquake with high-rate multi-GNSS observations, especially with the contribution of newly available BDS. The velocity estimation using GPS + BDS shows an additional improvement of around 20% with respect to GPS-only solutions. We also reconstruct displacements by integrating GNSS-derived velocities after a linear trend removal (IGV). The displacement waveforms with accuracy of better than 5 cm are derived when postprocessed GPS precise point positioning results are used as ground truth, even if those stations have strong ground motions and static offsets of up to 1–2 m. GNSS-derived velocity and displacement waveforms with the variometric approach are in good agreement with results from strong motion data. We therefore conclude that it is feasible to capture real-time seismic waves with multi-GNSS observations using the IGV-enhanced variometric approach, which has critical implications for earthquake early warning, tsunami forecasting, and rapid hazard assessment.

Prediction of peak ground acceleration of Iran’s tectonic regions using a hybrid soft computing technique

Abstract: A new model is derived to predict the peak ground acceleration (PGA) utilizing a hybrid method coupling artificial neural network (ANN) and simulated annealing (SA), called SA-ANN. The proposed model relates PGA to earthquake source to site distance, earthquake magnitude, average shear-wave velocity, faulting mechanisms, and focal depth. A database of strong ground-motion recordings of 36 earthquakes, which happened in Iran’s tectonic regions, is used to establish the model. For more validity verification, the SA-ANN model is employed to predict the PGA of a part of the database beyond the training data domain. The proposed SA-ANN model is compared with the simple ANN in addition to 10 well-known models proposed in the literature. The proposed model performance is superior to the single ANN and other existing attenuation models. The SA-ANN model is highly correlated to the actual records (R ¼ 0.835 and r ¼ 0.0908) and it is subsequently converted into a tractable design equation.