Showing papers on "Thunderstorm published in 2000"
TL;DR: In this paper, data from both 27 sites in the Atlanta mesonet surface meteorological network and eight National Weather Service sites were analyzed for the period from 26 July to 3 August 1996 for the six precipitation events over the city during the period (each on a different day) showed that its urban heat island induced a convergence zone that initiated three of the storms at different times of the day, i.e., 0630, 0845, and 1445 EDT.
537 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the fair-weather global electric circuit has been studied and it has been shown that lightning and thunderstorms must occur continually to maintain the fair weather electric field, and the time constant of the circuit, ∼>2 min, demonstrates that thunderstorms are necessary and sufficient for maintaining the electric field.
319 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a C-band polarimetric radar was deployed in the Tropics (11.68S, 130.88E) for the first time, accompanied by a suite of lightning measurements.
Abstract: One of the primary scientific objectives of the Maritime Continent Thunderstorm Experiment was to study cloud electrification processes in tropical island convection, in particular, the coupling between ice phase precipitation and lightning production. To accomplish this goal, a C-band polarimetric radar was deployed in the Tropics (11.68S, 130.88E) for the first time, accompanied by a suite of lightning measurements. Using observations of the propagation-corrected horizontal reflectivity and differential reflectivity, along with specific differential phase, rain and ice masses were estimated during the entire life cycle of an electrically active tropical convective complex (known locally as Hector) over the Tiwi Islands on 28 November 1995. Hector’s precipitation structure as inferred from these raw and derived radar fields was then compared in time and space to the measured surface electric field, cloud-to-ground (CG) and total lightning flash rates, and ground strike locations. During Hector’s developing stage, precipitating convective cells along island sea breezes were dominated by warm rain processes. No significant electric fields or lightning were associated with this stage of Hector, despite substantial rainfall rates. Aided by gust front forcing, a cumulus merger process resulted in larger, taller, and more intense convective complexes that were dominated by mixed-phase precipitation processes. During the mature phase of Hector, lightning and the surface electric field were strongly correlated to the mixed phase ice mass and rainfall. Merged convective complexes produced 97% of the rainfall and mixed-phase ice mass and 100% of the CG lightning. As Hector dissipated, lightning activity rapidly ceased. As evidenced from the multiparameter radar observations, the multicell nature of Hector resulted in the continuous lofting of supercooled drops to temperatures between 2108 and 2208C in discrete updraft cores during both the early and mature phases. The freezing of these drops provided instantaneous precipitation-sized ice particles that may have subsequently rimed and participated in thunderstorm electrification via the noninductive charging mechanism.
231 citations
TL;DR: It is concluded that moist convection—similar to large clusters of thunderstorm cells on the Earth—is a dominant factor in converting heat flow into kinetic energy in the jovian atmosphere.
Abstract: The energy source driving Jupiter's active meteorology is not understood. There are two main candidates: a poorly understood internal heat source and sunlight. Here we report observations of an active storm system possessing both lightning and condensation of water. The storm has a vertical extent of at least 50 km and a length of about 4,000 km. Previous observations of lightning on Jupiter have revealed both its frequency of occurrence and its spatial distribution, but they did not permit analysis of the detailed cloud structure and its dynamics. The present observations reveal the storm (on the day side of the planet) at the same location and within just a few hours of a lightning detection (on the night side). We estimate that the total vertical transport of heat by storms like the one observed here is of the same order as the planet's internal heat source. We therefore conclude that moist convection—similar to large clusters of thunderstorm cells on the Earth—is a dominant factor in converting heat flow into kinetic energy in the jovian atmosphere.
214 citations
TL;DR: To improve predictions of changes in the climatology of these storms, improved understanding of the genesis of tornadoes and downbursts within thunderstorms is needed, and greater resolution in global climate models is needed.
206 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the difference between the two types of roll days: the storm days and the nostorm days were examined: stability parameters, midlevel moisture, and vertical wind shear.
Abstract: Observations during the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification (CaPE) project illustrate that horizontal convective rolls are capable of providing sufficient forcing to initiate free moist convection. Rolls occurred on the majority of days during CaPE but on only some of those days were they able to trigger thunderstorms. This study was undertaken to ascertain the difference between the two types of roll days: the storm days and the nostorm days. All obvious sounding parameters were examined: stability parameters, midlevel moisture, and vertical wind shear. None of them showed a difference between the storm and no-storm days. This is not surprising in light of recent work showing that soundings within rolls are not representative of the environmental stability unless they happen to be launched into roll updraft branches. This is due to the upward transport of warm, moist air in the roll updraft regions atop which cloud streets and sometimes thunderstorms form. Numerous other parameters examined were also fruitless in identifying any difference between the days. These included surface station measurements, cell motion relative to roll updraft locations, surface topography, and roll circulation strength and depth. The only useful predictor was obtained by modifying the soundings using aircraft data as they were flying across the rolls and sampling moisture contained within the roll updraft branches. Using these roll updraft moisture measurements to recalculate sounding stability parameters provided an effective means of predicting thunderstorm formation.
186 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe a model of the horizontal wind speed and direction in a travelling downburst, generated by the vector summation of the "environmental" wind speed, or translation speed, and the radial wind generated by an impinging jet.
178 citations
TL;DR: It is suggested that upper-tropospheric water-vapour changes can be inferred from records of global lightning activity, readily obtained from observations at a single location on the Earth's surface.
Abstract: Tropospheric water vapour is a key element of the Earth's climate, which has direct effects as a greenhouse gas, as well as indirect effects through interaction with clouds, aerosols and tropospheric chemistry. Small changes in upper-tropospheric water vapour have a much larger impact on the greenhouse effect than small changes in water vapour in the lower atmosphere, but whether this impact is a positive or negative feedback remains uncertain. The main challenge in addressing this question is the difficulty in monitoring upper-tropospheric water vapour globally over long timescales. Here I show that upper-tropospheric water-vapour variability and global lightning activity are closely linked, suggesting that upper-tropospheric water-vapour changes can be inferred from records of global lightning activity, readily obtained from observations at a single location on the Earth's surface. This correlation reflects the fact that continental deep-convective thunderstorms transport large amounts of water vapour into the upper troposphere and thereby dominate the variations of global upper-tropospheric water vapour while producing most of the lightning on Earth. As global lightning induces Schumann resonances, an electromagnetic phenomenon in the atmosphere that can be observed easily at low cost, monitoring of these resonances might provide a convenient method for tracking upper-tropospheric water-vapour variability and hence contribute to a better understanding of the processes affecting climate change.
133 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a set of mesoscale numerical simulations using the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research model is used to investigate two cases of extreme precipitation over eastern Spain, both of which were characterized by quasi-stationary convective systems that developed over the Valencia region and lasted more than 30 and 12 hours, respectively.
Abstract: A set of mesoscale numerical simulations using the Pennsylvania State University‐National Center for Atmospheric Research model is used to investigate two cases of extreme precipitation over eastern Spain. Both cases (3‐4 November 1987 and 20 October 1982) were characterized by quasi-stationary mesoscale convective systems that developed over the Valencia region and lasted more than 30 and 12 h, respectively. Rainfall totals in 24 h exceeded 800 mm on 3‐4 November and 400 mm on 20 October at some localities of that region. The first event occurred within a weak and very stagnant synoptic pattern under a persistent easterly/northeasterly low-level jet stream impinging on the Valencian orography. In contrast, the second case involved a westwardmoving surface low driven by an upper-level jet streak, which evolved along the northern edge of an upperlevel cutoff low over North Africa. In both cases, the mesoscale model forecast spatial details of the precipitation field reasonably accurately, as well as capturing its long duration, but underestimated the storm total precipitation. Model output fields suggest that the development of a surface mesolow by latent heat release, as well as lee cyclogenesis induced by the Atlas Mountains, could have played an important role in both events by providing low-level convergence and enhanced upslope winds. Thus, a factor separation technique is used to explore this issue. For the event of 3‐4 November 1987, latent heat is decisive for explaining the precipitation maximum over central Valencia, and the Atlas orography induces rainfall enhancement over the same zone. For the event of 20 October 1982, the latent heat release is again shown to be important, whereas the Atlas Mountains orography factor appears to inhibit rainfall. This is the first time that it has been documented that the Atlas-induced modulation of the surface pressure field is not a positive factor for heavy precipitations over eastern Spain. This exceptional case may be due to a negative interaction between the Atlas Mountains and the upper-level dynamics and frontal forcing for this event.
131 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used a two-dimensional cloud model that includes a parameterized source of lightning-generated NOx to study the production and advection of NOx associated with a developing northeast Colorado thunderstorm observed on July 12, 1996, during the Stratosphere-Troposphere Experiment-Radiation, Aerosols, Ozone (STERAO-A) field campaign.
Abstract: Understanding lightning NOx (NO 1 NO2) production on the cloud scale is key for developing better parameterizations of lightning NOx for use in regional and global chemical transport models. This paper attempts to further the understanding of lightning NOx production on the cloud scale using a cloud model simulation of an observed thunderstorm. Objectives are (1) to infer from the model simulations and in situ measurements the relative production rates of NOx by cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning for the storm; (2) to assess the relative contributions in the storm anvil of convective transport of NOx from the boundary layer and NOx production by lightning; and (3) to simulate the effects of the lightning-generated NOx on subsequent photochemical ozone production. We use a two-dimensional cloud model that includes a parameterized source of lightning-generated NOx to study the production and advection of NOx associated with a developing northeast Colorado thunderstorm observed on July 12, 1996, during the Stratosphere-Troposphere Experiment—Radiation, Aerosols, Ozone (STERAO-A) field campaign. Model results are compared with the sum of NO measurements taken by aircraft and photostationary state estimates of NO2 in and around the anvil of the thunderstorm. The results show that IC lightning was the dominant source of NOx in this thunderstorm. We estimate from our simulations that the NOx production per CG flash (PCG) was of the order of 200 to 500 mol flash 21 .N O x production per IC flash (PIC) appeared to be half or more of that for a CG flash, a higher ratio of P IC/PCG than is commonly assumed. The results also indicate that the majority of NOx (greater than 80%) in the anvil region of this storm resulted from lightning as opposed to transport from the boundary layer. The effect of the lightning NOx on subsequent photochemical ozone production was assessed using a column chemical model initialized with values of NOx ,O 3, and hydrocarbons taken from a horizontally averaged vertical profile through the anvil of the simulated storm. The lightning NOx increased simulated ozone production rates by a maximum of over 7 ppbv d 21 in the upper troposphere downwind of this storm.
123 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the response of these parameters to thermodynamic forcing of deep convection on the diurnal and annual time scales and found that the changes in the number of storms dominate the variations in total lightning activity.
Abstract: Global lightning activity is highly variable on many time scales. This variability is attributable to changes in the flash rate per thunderstorm, the number of thunderstorms, or a combination. The TRMM Mission offers lightning observations from the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) in space. Both are used to examine the response of these parameters to thermodynamic forcing of deep convection on the diurnal and annual time scales. On both time scales, the changes in the number of storms dominate the variations in total lightning activity. On the diurnal time scale, the mean flash rate appears to vary with cloud buoyancy, peaking in early afternoon and declining in late afternoon, but the contribution of number of thunderstorms is 2-3 times greater that the mean storm flash rate. On the annual time scale, almost all of the total lightning response is due to changes in the number of storms, with a negligible contribution from flash rate. Evidence is presented that the LIS/OTD 'area' is a meaningful objective identifier for a thunderstorm.
TL;DR: The Maritime Continent Thunderstorm Experiment (MCTE) as mentioned in this paper was held over the Tiwi Islands (12°S, 130°E) during the period November-to-December 1995.
Abstract: A description is given of the Maritime Continent Thunderstorm Experiment held over the Tiwi Islands (12°S, 130°E) during the period November–December 1995. The unique nature of regularly occurring storms over these islands enabled a study principally aimed at investigating the life cycle of island-initiated mesoscale convective systems within the Maritime Continent. The program objectives are first outlined and then selected results from various observationally based and modeling studies are summarized. These storms are shown to depend typically on island-scale forcing although external mesoscale disturbances can result in significant storm activity as they pass over the heated island. Particular emphasis is given to summarizing the environmental characteristics and the impact this has on the location of storm development and the associated rainfall distribution. The mean rainfall production from these storms is shown to be about 760 × 105 m3, with considerable variability. The mesoscale evolution is summ...
TL;DR: The Stratospheric-Tropospheric Experiment: Radiation, Aerosols and Ozone (STERAO)-Deep Convection Field Project with closely coordinated chemical, dynamical, electrical, and microphysical observations was conducted in northeastern Colorado during June and July of 1996 to investigate the production of NOx by lightning, the transport and redistribution of chemical species in the troposphere by thunderstorms, and the temporal evolution of intracloud and cloud-to-ground lightning for evolving storms on the Colorado high plains.
Abstract: The Stratospheric-Tropospheric Experiment: Radiation, Aerosols and Ozone (STERAO)-Deep Convection Field Project with closely coordinated chemical, dynamical, electrical, and microphysical observations was conducted in northeastern Colorado during June and July of 1996 to investigate the production of NOx by lightning, the transport and redistribution of chemical species in the troposphere by thunderstorms, and the temporal evolution of intracloud and cloud-to-ground lightning for evolving storms on the Colorado high plains. Major observations were airborne chemical measurements in the boundary layer, middle and upper troposphere, and thunderstorm anvils; airborne and ground-based Doppler radar measurements; measurement of both intracloud (IC) and cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash rates and locations; and multiparameter radar and in situ observations of microphysical structure. Cloud and mesoscale models are being used to synthesize and extend the observations. Herein we present an overview of the project and selected results for an isolated, severe storm that occurred on July 10. Time histories of reflectivity structure, IC and CG lightning flash rates, and chemical measurements in the boundary layer and in the anvil are presented showing large spatial and temporal variations. The observations for one period of time suggest that limited mixing of environmental air into the updraft core occurred during transport from cloud base to the anvil adjacent to the storm core. We deduce that the most likely contribution of lightning to the total NOx observed in the anvil is 60–90% with a minimum of 45%. For the July 10 storm the NOx produced by lightning was almost exclusively from IC flashes with a ratio of IC to total flashes >0.95 throughout most of the storm's lifetime. It is argued that in this storm and probably others, IC flashes can be major contributors to NOx production. Superposition of VHF lightning source locations on Doppler retrieved air motion fields for one 5 min time period shows that lightning activity occurred primarily in moderate updrafts and weak downdrafts with little excursion into the main downdraft. This may have important implications for the vertical redistribution of NOx resulting from lightning production, if found to be true at other times and in other storms.
TL;DR: In this paper, drop-size distribution characteristics were retrieved in eight tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCS) using a dual-frequency (UHF and VHF) wind profiler technique.
Abstract: Drop-size distribution characteristics were retrieved in eight tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCS) using a dual-frequency (UHF and VHF) wind profiler technique. The MCSs occurred near Darwin, Australia, during the 1993/94 wet season and were representative of the monsoon (oceanic) regime. The retrieved drop-size parameters were compared with corresponding rain gauge and disdrometer data, and it was found that there was good agreement between the measurements, lending credence to the profiler retrievals of drop-size distribution parameters. The profiler data for each MCS were partitioned into a three-tier classification scheme (i.e., convective, mixed convective–stratiform, and stratiform) based on a modified version of Williams et al to isolate the salient microphysical characteristics in different precipitation types. The resulting analysis allowed for an examination of the drop-size distribution parameters in each category for a height range of about 2.1 km in each MCS. In general, the ...
TL;DR: In the United States, the most significant year-to-year changes in lightning frequency worldwide occurred along the Gulf Coast and within the Gulf of Mexico basin during the Northern Hemisphere winter as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for worldwide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast U.S. Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the warm episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode is notable for being the strongest event since 198283. With the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the detailed coverage of the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), such interannual changes in lightning activity can be examined with far greater detail than ever before. For the 1997-98 ENSO event the most significant year-to-year changes in lightning frequency worldwide occurred along the Gulf Coast and within the Gulf of Mexico basin during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Within a broad swath across the northern Gulf of Mexico basin there is a 100-150% increase in lightning days year-to-year (a peak of 33 days in the winter of 1997-98 vs. only 15 days or fewer in both the 1996-97 and 1998-99 winter). In addition, there is a nearly 200% increase in lightning hours (a peak of 138 hours in 1996-97 vs. 50 hours in both 1996-97 and 1998-99). The increase in lightning activity during ENSO occurs in association with a 100% increase in the number of synoptic scale cyclones that developed within or moved through the Gulf basin. The primary variables controlling these enhancements in thunderstorm activity are the position and strength of the jet stream.
TL;DR: Balloon-borne gamma-ray and electric-field-change instruments were launched into a daytime summer thunderstorm to evaluate a new experimental design to test hypotheses for the production of transient luminous events (TLE) in the mesosphere as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Balloon-borne gamma-ray and electric-field-change instruments were launched into a daytime summer thunderstorm to evaluate a new experimental design to test hypotheses for the production of transient luminous events (TLE) (eg. sprites, and blue jets) in the mesosphere. While ascending, the instrument triggered many times on the signals from the electric-field-change instrument, recording the gamma-ray background at those times. A greater than three-fold increase in the gamma-ray flux was observed as the balloon descended through a thunderstorm anvil where a strong electric field was suspected to be present. These observations suggest that gamma-ray production in thunderstorms may not be as uncommon as previously believed.
TL;DR: In this article, three techniques were employed for the estimation and prediction of precipitation from a thunderstorm that produced a flash flood in the Buffalo Creek watershed located in the mountainous Front Range near Denver, Colorado, on 12 July 1996.
Abstract: Three techniques were employed for the estimation and prediction of precipitation from a thunderstorm that produced a flash flood in the Buffalo Creek watershed located in the mountainous Front Range near Denver, Colorado, on 12 July 1996. The techniques included 1) quantitative precipitation estimation using the National Weather Service’s Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler and the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s S-band, dual-polarization radars, 2) quantitative precipitation forecasting utilizing a dynamic model, and 3) quantitative precipitation forecasting using an automated algorithmic system for tracking thunderstorms. Rainfall data provided by these various techniques at short timescales (6 min) and at fine spatial resolutions (150 m to 2 km) served as input to a distributed-parameter hydrologic model for analysis of the flash flood. The quantitative precipitation estimates from the weather radar demonstrated their ability to aid in simulating a watershed’s response to preci...
TL;DR: In this paper, a four-dimensional variational data assimilation system consisting of a three-dimensional time-dependent cloud model with both liquid and ice phase microphysics parameterization was used to assimilate radar data into a cloud model.
Abstract: A four-dimensional variational data assimilation system consisting of a three-dimensional time-dependent cloud model with both liquid and ice phase microphysics parameterization was used to assimilate radar data into a cloud model. Data of a severe thunderstorm observed during the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment project were assimilated and results compared to a conventional analysis. The analysis system was able to retrieve all the prominent features of the storm, but differed in some of the details. However, the consistency of this retrieval dataset lent credence to the results. It was found that the algorithm was very sensitive to several coefficients in the microphysical and turbulence parameterizations. Simulations proved to be unable to reproduce the evolution of the observed storm even with parameterization coefficients set at values that produce reasonable storm evolutions. This result has implications for short-range forecasting of convective events. Such forecasts require initial fields that currently can only be derived from observations such as used in this study. The problems with assimilating radar observations point to additional work to design parameterizations that allow models to more accurately simulate actual observed storms.
TL;DR: In this paper, the influence of environmental profiles of wind and humidity on the dynamical and microphysical structure of mesoscale convective systems over the tropical oceans was examined using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model.
Abstract: Two-dimensional experiments using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model are performed in order to examine the influence of environmental profiles of wind and humidity on the dynamical and microphysical structure of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the tropical oceans. The initial environments used in this study are derived from the results of a cluster analysis of the TOGA COARE sounding data. The model data are analyzed with methods and measurements similar to those used in observational studies. Experiments to test the sensitivity of MCSs to the thermodynamic profile focus on the role of humidity in the free troposphere. In the experiments, a constant amount of relative humidity is added to every level above the boundary layer. As humidity is increased, model storms transition from weak, unsteady systems with little precipitation to strong, upshear-tilted systems with copious rainfall. This behavior is hypothesized to be the result of the entrainment of environmental air into the updraft c...
TL;DR: In this article, four multiscale numerical simulations of convective events are analyzed to determine the essential characteristics of a numerical model, which lead to useful simulations of a convective event.
Abstract: Four multiscale numerical simulations of convective events are analyzed to determine the essential characteristics of a numerical model which lead to useful simulations of convective events. Although several universities and weather forecasting centers are currently running high-resolution forecast models, the predictability of convective events, especially in the warm season, is still an issue among researchers and forecasters in the meteorological community. This study shows that explicit simulations of convection depend on the high spatial resolution of physiography (particularly topography and top soil moisture), efficient communication between grids of different scales, and initialization procedures that incorporate mesoscale storm features.
TL;DR: In this paper, the characteristics of radar echoes for 12 thunderstorm days in the vicinity of Sydney, Australia, in the summer of 1995/96 have been examined using an objective methodology for storm identification and tracking.
Abstract: The characteristics of radar echoes for 12 thunderstorm days in the vicinity of Sydney, Australia, in the summer of 1995/96 have been examined using an objective methodology for storm identification and tracking. The spatial distribution of identified storms shows a maximum in frequency and intensity along the east side of the mountains that lie inland from the coast. Characteristics such as storm volume, area, and height are shown to have a lognormal frequency distribution. Reflectivity also has a skewed frequency distribution with a prevalence of lower reflectivity storms. Both the maximum reflectivity and storm height are shown to be correlated with the logarithm of storm volume. Although small storms predominate, the bulk of precipitation flux comes from the relatively few large-scale storms. It is also shown that storms generally move or propagate in a direction slightly to the left of the mass-weighted mean wind for the surface-to-300-hPa layer at a speed slightly less than the mean speed. ...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed a stochastic model that could realistically and accurately simulate wind loads that are generated by thunderstorm downbursts for transmission line design and calibrated the model using existing meteorological records.
TL;DR: The relationship between cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning polarity and surface equivalent potential temperature (θe) was examined for the 26 April 1991, Andover-Wichita, Kansas, the 13 March 1990, Hesston, Kansas; and the 28 August 1990, Plainfield, Illinois, tornadic storm events as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The relationship between cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning polarity and surface equivalent potential temperature (θe) is examined for the 26 April 1991, Andover–Wichita, Kansas; the 13 March 1990, Hesston, Kansas; and the 28 August 1990, Plainfield, Illinois, tornadic storm events. The majority of thunderstorms whose CG lightning activity was dominated by negative flashes (labeled negative storms) formed in regions of weak θe gradient and downstream of a θe maximum. The majority of thunderstorms whose initial CG lightning activity was dominated by positive flashes formed in regions of strong θe gradient, upstream of a θe maximum. Some of these storms moved adjacent to the θe maximum and were dominated by positive CG lightning throughout their lifetimes (labeled “positive storms”). The other initially positive storms moved through the θe maximum where their updrafts appeared to undergo intensification. The storms’ dominant CG polarity switched from positive to negative after they crossed the θe maxim...
TL;DR: In this article, different techniques for the estimation and prediction of convective rainfall are applied to the Buffalo Creek, Colorado, flash flood of July 1996, during which over 75 mm of rain from a thunderstorm fell on the watershed in less than 1 h.
Abstract: Operational prediction of flash floods caused by convective rainfall in mountainous areas requires accurate estimates or predictions of the rainfall distribution in space and time. The details of the spatial distribution are especially critical in complex terrain because the watersheds generally are small in size, and position errors in the placement of the rainfall can distribute the rain over the wrong watershed. In addition to the need for good rainfall estimates, accurate flood prediction requires a surface-hydrologic model that is capable of predicting stream or river discharge based on the rainfall-rate input data. In part 1 of this study, different techniques for the estimation and prediction of convective rainfall are applied to the Buffalo Creek, Colorado, flash flood of July 1996, during which over 75 mm of rain from a thunderstorm fell on the watershed in less than 1 h. The hydrologic impact of the rainfall was exacerbated by the fact that a considerable fraction of the watershed experienced a wildfire approximately two months prior to the rain event. Precipitation estimates from the National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler and the National Center for Atmospheric Research S-band, dual-polarization radar, collocated east of Denver, Colorado, were compared. Very short range simulations from a convection-resolving dynamic model that was initialized variationally using the radar reflectivity and Doppler winds were compared with simulations from an automated algorithmic forecast system that also employs the radar data. The radar estimates of rain rate and the two forecasting systems that employ the radar data have degraded accuracy by virtue of the fact that they are applied in complex terrain. Nevertheless, the dynamic model and automated algorithms both produce simulations that could be useful operationally for input to surface-hydrologic models employed for flood warning. Part 2 of this study, reported in a companion paper, describes experiments in which these radar-based precipitation estimates and dynamic model‐ and automated algorithm‐based precipitation simulations are used as input to a surface-hydrologic model for simulation of the stream discharge associated with the flood.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the origin of large-scale NOx plumes using back trajectories, satellite infrared images, and lightning observations from the U.S National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite instrument.
Abstract: NOx (NO and NO2) and ozone were measured on 98 flights during August to November 1997 in the framework of the projects Pollution From Aircraft Emissions in the North Atlantic Flight Corridor (POLINAT 2) and Subsonic Assessment Ozone and Nitrogen Oxide Experiment (SONEX). The fully automated measurement system Nitrogen Oxides and Ozone Along Air Routes (NOXAR) was permanently installed aboard an inservice Swissair B-747 airliner operating in the North Atlantic Flight Corridor. Below the tropopause, predominantly over the U.S. east coast, the patchy occurrence of NOx enhancements up to 3000 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) was observed frequently and led to a lognormal probability density function of NOx. These plumes extend over several hundred kilometers. In three case studies the origin of such plumes was investigated using back trajectories, satellite infrared images, and lightning observations from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite instrument. In the case of frontal activity above the continental United States, the location of NOx plumes was explained with maps of convective influence. In another case, NOx seems to have been produced by lightning in a marine thunderstorm over the eastern Atlantic. Lightning activity triggered over the warm Gulf Stream is found to be an important source for the regional upper tropospheric NOx budget, at least for the time period considered. With a method that we call “lightning tracing” we show for the first time that (in some cases) the number of lightning flashes, accumulated along back trajectories, was proportional to the NOx concentrations observed several hundred kilometers downwind of the anvil outflows. We suggest that mixing processes in convective clouds reduce the initially highly heterogeneous NOx field rapidly, but that following this phase, the structure of large-scale plumes remains stable over relatively long periods of time (as they decay).
TL;DR: The first storm-scale, total lightning observations from space during tornadogenesis were presented in this paper, where the NASA OTD (Optical Transient Detector) detected a total of 143 flashes during approximately 3 minutes of observation time, ranging from 45 (raw counts) to 78 (corrected for detection efficiency) flashes min-1.
Abstract: The first storm-scale, total lightning observations from space during tornadogenesis are presented. During the overpass of an Oklahoma supercell, just minutes prior to tornado touchdown on 17 April 1995, the NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) OTD (Optical Transient Detector) detected a total of 143 flashes during approximately 3 minutes of observation time. The estimated total flash rate ranges from 45 (raw counts) to 78 (corrected for detection efficiency) flashes min-1. This total flash rate was at least 17 times greater than the cloud-to-ground lightning rate detected by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), indicating most of the lightning was intracloud. Cloud-to-ground lightning at this time was also dominated by positive polarity flashes. In addition, total lightning rates were decreasing rapidly prior to touchdown. These OTD observations are consistent with the limited results from recent ground based measurements of total lightning activity in tornadic storms and corroborate that such storms have unusually high total flash rates, are dominated by intracloud lightning, and that the total flash rates are observed to decrease rapidly in the minutes prior to touchdown.
10 Jan 2000
TL;DR: Fujita's contributions to the analysis and description of surface pressure features accompanying tornadic storms and squall lines are reviewed in this paper, where he identified pressure couplets: a mesolow associated with the tornado cyclone and a mesohigh in the adjacent heavy precipitation area.
Abstract: Through detailed and remarkably insightful analyses of surface data, Tetsuya Theodore Fujita pioneered modern mesoanalysis, unraveling many of the mysteries of severe storms. In this paper Fujita's contributions to the analysis and description of surface pressure features accompanying tornadic storms and squall lines are reviewed. On the scale of individual thunderstorm cells Fujita identified pressure couplets: a mesolow associated with the tornado cyclone and a mesohigh in the adjacent heavy precipitation area to the north. On larger scales, he found that squall lines contain mesohighs associated with the convective line and wake depressions (now generally called wake lows) to the rear of storms. Fujita documented the structure and life cycles of these phenomena using time–to–space conversion of barograph data. Subsequent investigations have borne out many of Fujita's findings of nearly 50 years ago. His analyses of the surface pressure field accompanying tornadic supercells have been validated...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors reported that most of the higher gust speeds occur during tropical thunderstorms, which suggests that storm wind is a major factor defining the wind loading design criteria in places like Singapore.
TL;DR: In this article, a probabilistic model for the design of transmission line systems for local high-intensity winds of the downburst type, usually associated with thunderstorms, is described.
TL;DR: In this article, the mesoscale fields from simulations for 1-2 November 1994 event of hazardous rains in the southeastern Mediterranean with the aim of exploring the mechanisms of this extraordinary phenomena.