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Showing papers on "Water cycle published in 2020"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The latest projections of climate and land use change are used to assess potential global soil erosion rates by water to address policy questions and provide insight into the potential mitigating effects attributable to conservation agriculture and the need for more effective policy instruments for soil protection.
Abstract: Soil erosion is a major global soil degradation threat to land, freshwater, and oceans. Wind and water are the major drivers, with water erosion over land being the focus of this work; excluding gullying and river bank erosion. Improving knowledge of the probable future rates of soil erosion, accelerated by human activity, is important both for policy makers engaged in land use decision-making and for earth-system modelers seeking to reduce uncertainty on global predictions. Here we predict future rates of erosion by modeling change in potential global soil erosion by water using three alternative (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios. Global predictions rely on a high spatial resolution Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE)-based semiempirical modeling approach (GloSEM). The baseline model (2015) predicts global potential soil erosion rates of [Formula: see text] Pg yr-1, with current conservation agriculture (CA) practices estimated to reduce this by ∼5%. Our future scenarios suggest that socioeconomic developments impacting land use will either decrease (SSP1-RCP2.6-10%) or increase (SSP2-RCP4.5 +2%, SSP5-RCP8.5 +10%) water erosion by 2070. Climate projections, for all global dynamics scenarios, indicate a trend, moving toward a more vigorous hydrological cycle, which could increase global water erosion (+30 to +66%). Accepting some degrees of uncertainty, our findings provide insights into how possible future socioeconomic development will affect soil erosion by water using a globally consistent approach. This preliminary evidence seeks to inform efforts such as those of the United Nations to assess global soil erosion and inform decision makers developing national strategies for soil conservation.

492 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An intensification of extreme precipitation and flood events over all climate regions which increases as water availability increases from wet to dry regions and spatial and seasonal water availability becomes stronger as events become less extreme.
Abstract: The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify with global warming, which likely increases the intensity of extreme precipitation events and the risk of flooding. The changes, however, often differ from the theorized expectation of increases in water-holding capacity of the atmosphere in the warmer conditions, especially when water availability is limited. Here, the relationships of changes in extreme precipitation and flood intensities for the end of the twenty-first century with spatial and seasonal water availability are quantified. Results show an intensification of extreme precipitation and flood events over all climate regions which increases as water availability increases from wet to dry regions. Similarly, there is an increase in the intensification of extreme precipitation and flood with the seasonal cycle of water availability. The connection between extreme precipitation and flood intensity changes and spatial and seasonal water availability becomes stronger as events become less extreme.

400 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined lake evolution, spatial patterns and driving mechanisms over the Tibetan Plateau, showing an overall lake growth in the north of the inner plateau against a reduction in the south.

205 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.
Abstract: Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2-3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in-storm and larger-scale feedback processes, while changes in large-scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.

186 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A global synthesis of observations from 109 publications provides novel insights into the magnitude, processes, and contexts of biocrust effects in drylands, critical to improve capacity to manage dwindling dryland water supplies as Earth becomes hotter and drier.
Abstract: The capture and use of water are critically important in drylands, which collectively constitute Earth's largest biome. Drylands will likely experience lower and more unreliable rainfall as climatic conditions change over the next century. Dryland soils support a rich community of microphytic organisms (biocrusts), which are critically important because they regulate the delivery and retention of water. Yet despite their hydrological significance, a global synthesis of their effects on hydrology is lacking. We synthesized 2,997 observations from 109 publications to explore how biocrusts affected five hydrological processes (times to ponding and runoff, early [sorptivity] and final [infiltration] stages of water flow into soil, and the rate or volume of runoff) and two hydrological outcomes (moisture storage, sediment production). We found that increasing biocrust cover reduced the time for water to pond on the surface (-40%) and commence runoff (-33%), and reduced infiltration (-34%) and sediment production (-68%). Greater biocrust cover had no significant effect on sorptivity or runoff rate/amount, but increased moisture storage (+14%). Infiltration declined most (-56%) at fine scales, and moisture storage was greatest (+36%) at large scales. Effects of biocrust type (cyanobacteria, lichen, moss, mixed), soil texture (sand, loam, clay), and climatic zone (arid, semiarid, dry subhumid) were nuanced. Our synthesis provides novel insights into the magnitude, processes, and contexts of biocrust effects in drylands. This information is critical to improve our capacity to manage dwindling dryland water supplies as Earth becomes hotter and drier.

109 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
23 May 2020-Water
TL;DR: In this paper, an integrative information flow (iAqueduct theoretical framework) is developed to close the gaps between satellite water cycle products and local information necessary for sustainable management of water resources.
Abstract: The past decades have seen rapid advancements in space-based monitoring of essential water cycle variables, providing products related to precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, often at tens of kilometer scales. Whilst these data effectively characterize water cycle variability at regional to global scales, they are less suitable for sustainable management of local water resources, which needs detailed information to represent the spatial heterogeneity of soil and vegetation. The following questions are critical to effectively exploit information from remotely sensed and in situ Earth observations (EOs): How to downscale the global water cycle products to the local scale using multiple sources and scales of EO data? How to explore and apply the downscaled information at the management level for a better understanding of soil-water-vegetation-energy processes? How can such fine-scale information be used to improve the management of soil and water resources? An integrative information flow (i.e., iAqueduct theoretical framework) is developed to close the gaps between satellite water cycle products and local information necessary for sustainable management of water resources. The integrated iAqueduct framework aims to address the abovementioned scientific questions by combining medium-resolution (10 m–1 km) Copernicus satellite data with high-resolution (cm) unmanned aerial system (UAS) data, in situ observations, analytical- and physical-based models, as well as big-data analytics with machine learning algorithms. This paper provides a general overview of the iAqueduct theoretical framework and introduces some preliminary results.

100 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors presented a new observational estimate of changes in ocean salinity since 1960 from the surface to 2000 m by using an interpolation technique that uses information on the spatio-temporal covariability of salinity taken from model simulations.
Abstract: Ocean salinity records the hydrological cycle and its changes, but data scarcity and the large changes in sampling make the reconstructions of long-term salinity changes challenging. Here, we present a new observational estimate of changes in ocean salinity since 1960 from the surface to 2000 m. We overcome some of the inconsistencies present in existing salinity reconstructions by using an interpolation technique that uses information on the spatiotemporal covariability of salinity taken from model simulations. The interpolation technique is comprehensively evaluated using recent Argo-dominated observations through subsample tests. The new product strengthens previous findings that ocean surface and subsurface salinity contrasts have increased (i.e., the existing salinity pattern has amplified). We quantify this contrast by assessing the difference between the salinity in regions of high and low salinity averaged over the top 2000 m, a metric we refer to as SC2000. The increase in SC2000 is highly distinguishable from the sampling error and less affected by interannual variability and sampling error than if this metric was computed just for the surface. SC2000 increased by 1.9% ± 0.6% from 1960 to 1990 and by 3.3% ± 0.4% from 1991 to 2017 (5.2% ± 0.4% for 1960–2017), indicating an acceleration of the pattern amplification in recent decades. Combining this estimate with model simulations, we show that the change in SC2000 since 1960 emerges clearly as an anthropogenic signal from the natural variability. Based on the salinity-contrast metrics and model simulations, we find a water cycle amplification of 2.6% ± 4.4% K−1since 1960, with the larger error than salinity metric mainly being due to model uncertainty.

94 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors employ data-driven and land-surface models to produce observation-based global reconstructions of water availability from 1902 to 2014, a period during which our planet experienced a global warming of approximately 1°C.
Abstract: Human-induced climate change impacts the hydrological cycle and thus the availability of water resources However, previous assessments of observed warming-induced changes in dryness have not excluded natural climate variability and show conflicting results due to uncertainties in our understanding of the response of evapotranspiration Here we employ data-driven and land-surface models to produce observation-based global reconstructions of water availability from 1902 to 2014, a period during which our planet experienced a global warming of approximately 1 °C Our analysis reveals a spatial pattern of changes in average water availability during the driest month of the year over the past three decades compared with the first half of the twentieth century, with some regions experiencing increased and some decreased water availability The global pattern is consistent with climate model estimates that account for anthropogenic effects, and it is not expected from natural climate variability, supporting human-induced climate change as the cause There is regional evidence of drier dry seasons predominantly in extratropical latitudes and including Europe, western North America, northern Asia, southern South America, Australia and eastern Africa We also find that the intensification of the dry season is generally a consequence of increasing evapotranspiration rather than decreasing precipitation Regional changes in dry-season water availability over recent decades can be attributed to human-induced climate change, according to analyses of global reconstructions

90 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art in the assessment of moisture source-sinks and how different approaches can contribute to improving our knowledge of this component of the Earth's Climate System can be found in this article.

83 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
Hui Jia1, Hui Qian1, Le Zheng1, Wenwen Feng1, Haike Wang1, Yanyan Gao1 
TL;DR: The results suggest that the irrigation activities produce significant influence on the hydrochemistry of both river and groundwater, and the finding is beneficial for the policy-makers for the future water management schemes, in large surface irrigation systems, in order to achieve sustainable development goal.

81 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors highlight four core Earth System functions of water (hydroclimatic regulation, hydroecological regulation, storage, and transport) and propose a framework for detecting, monitoring, and establishing safe limits to water cycle modifications.
Abstract: Fresh water – the bloodstream of the biosphere – is at the centre of the planetary drama of the Anthropocene. Water fluxes and stores regulate the Earth’s climate and are essential for thriving aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, as well as water, food and energy security. But the water cycle is also being modified by humans at an unprecedented scale and rate. A holistic understanding of freshwater’s role for Earth System resilience and the detection and monitoring of anthropogenic water cycle modifications across scales is urgent, yet existing methods and frameworks are not well suited for this. In this paper we highlight four core Earth System functions of water (hydroclimatic regulation, hydroecological regulation, storage, and transport) and key related processes. Building on systems and resilience theory, we review the evidence of regional-scale regime shifts and disruptions of the Earth System functions of water. We then propose a framework for detecting, monitoring, and establishing safe limits to water cycle modifications, and identify four possible spatially explicit methods for their quantification. In sum, this paper presents an ambitious scientific and policy Grand Challenge that could substantially improve our understanding of the role of water in the Earth System and cross-scale management of water cycle modifications that would be a complementary approach to existing water management tools.

Journal ArticleDOI
20 Mar 2020
TL;DR: In this article, the water planetary boundary is redesigned to consider how climate and living ecosystems respond to changes in the different forms of water on Earth: atmospheric water, frozen water, groundwater, soil moisture, and surface water.
Abstract: The planetary boundaries framework proposes quantified guardrails to human modification of global environmental processes that regulate the stability of the planet and has been considered in sustainability science, governance, and corporate management. However, the planetary boundary for human freshwater use has been critiqued as a singular measure that does not reflect all types of human interference with the complex global water cycle and Earth System. We suggest that the water planetary boundary will be more scientifically robust and more useful in decision-making frameworks if it is redesigned to consider more specifically how climate and living ecosystems respond to changes in the different forms of water on Earth: atmospheric water, frozen water, groundwater, soil moisture, and surface water. This paper provides an ambitious scientific road map to define a new water planetary boundary consisting of sub-boundaries that account for a variety of changes to the water cycle.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a heuristic segmentation method was used to identify the change point in streamflow time series by considering its nonlinearity, and trend analysis was performed on hydro-meteorological variables before and after the change points.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors evaluated the evolution characteristics of hydrological drought in the Yellow River basin from 1961 to 2015 using run theory, and the copula functions with the highest goodness of fit (GOF) were used to investigate the return period.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed spatiotemporal changes of hydrological factors in the Xiliaohe River Basin (XRB) and found that precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET) and temperature (T) had similar seasonal change patterns at rates of 0.05 cm/yr, 0.01 cm/r, and −0.05 °C/yr.
Abstract: Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of hydrological components and their impacts on vegetation are critical for comprehending hydrological, climatological, and ecological processes under environmental change and solving future water management challenges. Innovative methods need to be developed in semiarid areas to analyze the special hydrological factors in the water resource systems of these areas. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) were applied with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data in this paper to analyze spatiotemporal changes of hydrological factors in the Xiliaohe River Basin (XRB). The results showed that precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET) and temperature (T) had similar seasonal change patterns at rates of 0.05 cm/yr., 0.01 cm/yr. and −0.05 °C/yr., respectively. Total water storage change (TWSC) was consistent with the change trend of soil moisture change (SMC) and showed a fluctuating trend. Groundwater change (GWC) showed a decreasing trend at a rate of −0.43 cm/yr. P and ET had a greater impact on GLDAS data (R = 0.634, P < 0.05 and R = 0.686, P < 0.01, respectively) than on other factors. GWC was more sensitive to changes in T (R = 0.570, P < 0.05). Furthermore, a lag period of 0 to 1 months was observed for the effects of P and ET on TWSC and GLDAS. NDVI showed an upward trend at a rate of 0.001 yr−1 between 2002 and 2014. A spatial distribution of NDVI was heterogeneous in the study area. ET, GLDAS and GWC in growing season limited vegetation growth and were more important than other factors in XRB. The results may contribute to an understanding of the relationships between the hydrological cycle and climate change and provide scientific support for local environmental management.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the water balance on land and in the sea appears to be lower than the standard figures of literature, but with greater variance on climatic timescales, which is in accordance with the Hurst-Kolmogorov stochastic dynamics.
Abstract: . As a result of technological advances in monitoring atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and biosphere, as well as in data management and processing, several databases have become freely available. These can be exploited in revisiting the global hydrological cycle with the aim, on the one hand, to better quantify it and, on the other hand, to test the established climatological hypotheses according to which the hydrological cycle should be intensifying because of global warming. By processing the information from gridded ground observations, satellite data and reanalyses, it turns out that the established hypotheses are not confirmed. Instead of monotonic trends, there appear fluctuations from intensification to deintensification, and vice versa, with deintensification prevailing in the 21st century. The water balance on land and in the sea appears to be lower than the standard figures of literature, but with greater variability on climatic timescales, which is in accordance with Hurst–Kolmogorov stochastic dynamics. The most obvious anthropogenic signal in the hydrological cycle appears to be the over-exploitation of groundwater, which has a visible effect on the rise in sea level. Melting of glaciers has an equal effect, but in this case it is not known which part is anthropogenic, as studies on polar regions attribute mass loss mostly to ice dynamics.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the propagation probability of meteorological drought into hydrological drought using a probabilistic graphical model across South Korea and concluded that propagation probability increased significantly under climate change.
Abstract: Climate change is a main driving force that affects the hydrological cycle, leading to an increase in natural hazards. Among these natural hazards, drought is one of the most destructive and becomes more complex considering climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the effect of climate change on different types of drought. In this study, we examined the propagation probability of meteorological drought into hydrological drought using a probabilistic graphical model across South Korea. We performed correlation analyses among meteorological drought represented by Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and hydrological drought by Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) on different time scales. Drought characteristics were examined under a baseline period, RCP 4.5, and 8.5 climate change scenarios, and the results illustrated that drought characteristics varied spatially. On average, drought severity of SPI increased in P1 (2011–2040) and then deceased in P2 (2041–2070) and P3 (2071–2099) under RCP 4.5, whereas drought severity also increased in P1 under RCP 8.5. However, average drought severity of SPEI increased in P3, whereas that of SRI showed a decreasing trend for all the periods. Finally, propagation occurrence probabilities of different states of meteorological drought resulting in different states of hydrological drought were examined under climate change scenarios. The average propagation probability of extreme state of meteorological drought resulting in moderate and severe condition of hydrological drought increased by 13% and 2%, respectively, under RCP 4.5; while average propagation probability of extreme state of meteorological drought resulting in severe and extreme conditions of hydrological drought increased by 1.5% and 84%, respectively, under RCP 8.5. We concluded that propagation probability of meteorological drought into hydrological drought increased significantly under climate change. These findings will be helpful for early mitigation of hydrological drought.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A cross‐scale approach by which the water planetary boundary could guide sustainable water management and governance at subglobal contexts defined by physical features, political borders, or commercial entities is developed.
Abstract: The planetary boundaries framework defines the "safe operating space for humanity" represented by nine global processes that can destabilize the Earth System if perturbed. The water planetary boundary attempts to provide a global limit to anthropogenic water cycle modifications, but it has been challenging to translate and apply it to the regional and local scales at which water problems and management typically occur. We develop a cross-scale approach by which the water planetary boundary could guide sustainable water management and governance at subglobal contexts defined by physical features (e.g., watershed or aquifer), political borders (e.g., city, nation, or group of nations), or commercial entities (e.g., corporation, trade group, or financial institution). The application of the water planetary boundary at these subglobal contexts occurs via two approaches: (i) calculating fair shares, in which local water cycle modifications are compared to that context's allocation of the global safe operating space, taking into account biophysical, socioeconomic, and ethical considerations; and (ii) defining a local safe operating space, in which interactions between water stores and Earth System components are used to define local boundaries required for sustaining the local water system in stable conditions, which we demonstrate with a case study of the Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta wetlands in Colombia. By harmonizing these two approaches, the water planetary boundary can ensure that water cycle modifications remain within both local and global boundaries and complement existing water management and governance approaches.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Global Change Hydrology (GCH) is an emerging interdisciplinary field that links global change research and hydrology as mentioned in this paper, which integrates hydrology, climatology, and geography to study the interactions between the terrestrial water cycle and global change across various time and space scales.
Abstract: Global Change Hydrology (GCH) is an emerging interdisciplinary field that links global change research and hydrology. GCH integrates hydrology, climatology, and geography to study the interactions between the terrestrial water cycle and global change across various time and space scales. The main objective of GCH is to understand the natural and anthropogenic causes of the changing terrestrial water cycle and the associated influences and feedbacks in the Earth system. As Earth enters into a new geological era dominated by human beings—the Anthropocene, the terrestrial water cycle is undergoing rapid changes characterized as non-stationarity in hydrology under the influence of multiple global change factors including climate change, land use/cover change, and human water use (Abbott et al., 2019). It brings challenges to hydrological sciences that have never been more compelling and the opportunities that have never been greater. In this context, GCH came into being, trying to disentangle natural variability and human “fingerprint” of the terrestrial water cycle, so as to better understand the causes of the changing terrestrial water cycle and support sustainable water resources management. Global Change Hydrology is a new discipline, and its concept and scope are still under rapid development. As early as 1990, the Global Change Hydrology Program is an integral part of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The main purpose of the Global Change Hydrology Program is to develop data, understanding, and predictive capabilities related to water and associated aspects of carbon and the greenhouse gases as they interact with global systems. The impact of anthropogenic climate change (climate change resulting from anthropogenic forcing such as anthropogenic greenhouse gases emission) on the water cycle was a key concern. As research advances in the understanding of the interactions between the terrestrial water cycle and global change, it is found that in addition to anthropogenic climate change there are many anthropogenic factors affecting the terrestrial water cycle, and there are complex feedbacks between the water cycle and climate system. Considering only climate change (including both natural and anthropogenic climate change) cannot fully explain the change of the water cycle, thus the scope of GCH research extends from climate change impact to all the natural and anthropogenic factors and mechanisms affecting the terrestrial water cycle (Tang and Oki, 2016). The anthropogenic impact and feedback on the terrestrial water cycle are a key part of GCH research, and it is also the current research focus. Major scientific frontier issues concerned by GCH include: disentangling natural and anthropogenic influences on the terrestrial water cycle (Gudmundsson et al., 2017), developing hydrological models that consider the

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed the changes in atmospheric moisture transport towards tropical South America during the period 1961-2010, according to two deforestation scenarios of the Amazon defined by Alves et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 100(3-4):337-350, 2017).
Abstract: The water cycle over the Amazon basin is a regulatory mechanism for regional and global climate. The atmospheric moisture evaporated from this basin represents an important source of humidity for itself and for other remote regions. The deforestation rates that this basin has experienced in the past decades have implications for regional atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport. In this study, we analyzed the changes in atmospheric moisture transport towards tropical South America during the period 1961–2010, according to two deforestation scenarios of the Amazon defined by Alves et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 100(3-4):337–350, 2017). These scenarios consider deforested areas of approximately 28% and 38% of the Amazon basin, respectively. The Dynamic Recycling Model is used to track the transport of water vapor from different sources in tropical South America and the surrounding oceans. Our results indicate that under deforestation scenarios in the Amazon basin, continental sources reduce their contributions to northern South America at an annual scale by an average of between 40 and 43% with respect to the baseline state. Our analyses suggest that these changes may be related to alterations in the regional Hadley and Walker cells. Amazon deforestation also induces a strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow that transports atmospheric moisture from the Tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea to tropical South America during the austral summer. A weakening of the cross-equatorial flow is observed during the boreal summer, reducing moisture transport from the Amazon to latitudes further north. These changes alter the patterns of precipitable water contributions to tropical South America from both continental and oceanic sources. Finally, we observed that deforestation over the Amazon basin increases the frequency of occurrence of longer dry seasons in the central-southern Amazon (by between 29 and 57%), depending on the deforestation scenario considered, as previous studies suggest.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, future climate projections focusing on precipitation and water resource trends over South America (SA) are investigated using two ensembles, one composed of three global climate models (GCMs) and the other of eight regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX).
Abstract: Future climate projections focusing on precipitation and water resource trends over South America (SA) are investigated using two ensembles. One of them is composed of three global climate models (GCMs), and the other of eight regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The present (1970–2005) and the future (2006–2100) climate trends are analyzed for representative pathway scenarios 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5). For the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), trends in water resources are assessed considering the terrestrial branch of the hydrologic cycle by analyzing the precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET). For the present climate, RCMs added value to the GCMs in simulating more realistic precipitation fields in several regions. GCMs and RCMs project, in general, the same precipitation change signal for the end of the 21st century over SA, which is stronger in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5. For RCP8.5 in most regions, GCMs and RCMs ensembles have the same precipitation trend signal, but a great spread between the ensemble members, which is greater in austral summer than winter, can be noted. In winter a negative trend in rainfall in most members and regions predominates. At the end of the 21st century, relative changes in rainfall in RCP8.5 are in the range of +14% (over northeastern Brazil in summer) to − 36% (over the Andes Mountains in winter). In RCP8.5, the ensembles project an increase in air temperature with a similar magnitude, while in RCP4.5 the trends are weaker. For air temperature, there is small spread between members, and the positive trend is statistically significant for all ensemble members in the RCP8.5 scenario. In terms of water resources, on an annual scale, for RCP8.5 the RCM ensemble projects a larger area with wetter conditions in the future than GCMs. Regionally, it is expected a decrease in water availability in the Amazon basin and an increase over northeast Brazil and southeast SA during the summer. In other regions (northern Amazon, the Andes Mountains and Patagonia) the ensembles indicate drier conditions in the future winter, except in southern Amazon. It is expected that such information could be useful for devising adaptation and mitigation policies due to climate change over the SA.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Wang et al. as discussed by the authors investigated the long-term land cover variations in the Dongting Lake wetland by applying the Support Vector Machine method to Landsat satellite observations and explored the driving factors of vegetation changes by combining the classification results with measured hydrological and meteorological data.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors quantify the impact of vegetation change on surface runoff (Q) based on the Budyko framework over the global terrestrial environments (excluding Antarctica and northern high latitudes) during 1982-2014.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated if a North American scale CPM can reproduce the observed warm season precipitation diurnal cycle on a climate scale using the pseudo global warming approach under a high end anthropogenic emission scenario (RCP8.5).
Abstract: Convection-permitting models (CPM) with at least 4 km horizontal grid spacing enable the cumulus parameterization to be switched off and thus simulate convective processes more realistically than coarse resolution models. This study investigates if a North American scale CPM can reproduce the observed warm season precipitation diurnal cycle on a climate scale. Potential changes in the precipitation diurnal cycle characteristics at the end of the twenty first century are also investigated using the pseudo global warming approach under a high-end anthropogenic emission scenario (RCP8.5). Simulations are performed with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model with 4-km horizontal grid spacing. Results from the WRF historical run (2001–2013) are evaluated against hourly precipitation from 2903 weather stations and a gridded hourly precipitation product in the U.S. The magnitude and timing of the diurnal cycle peak are realistically simulated in most of the U.S. and southern Canada. The model also captures the transition from afternoon precipitation peaks eastward of the Rocky Mountains to night peaks in the central U.S., which is related to propagating mesoscale convective systems. However, the historical climate simulation does not capture the observed early morning peaks in the central U.S. and overestimates the magnitude of the diurnal precipitation peak in the southeast region. In the simulation of the future climate, both the precipitation amount of the diurnal cycle and precipitation intensity increase throughout the domain, along with an increase in precipitation frequency in the northern region of the domain in May. These increases indicate a clear intensification of the hydrologic cycle during the warm season with potential impacts on future water resources, agriculture, and flooding.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Wang et al. as discussed by the authors quantitatively analyzed the propagation from meteorological to hydrological and to soil moisture droughts and found that more than 91.89% of these evolutions led to hydrologogical evolutions, and more than 87.10% of them caused soil moisture evolutions.

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jan 2020
TL;DR: Wang et al. as mentioned in this paper introduced a novel Water Eco-Nexus Cycle System (WaterEcoNet) that highlights the significance of reclaimed water (RW) in urban water cycle so as to enhance water ecosystem functions and public acceptance, reduce distribution costs, and strengthen regional water supplies.
Abstract: With the rapid socio-economic development, urban cities are confronted with issues of accelerating water scarcity, water contamination and water environment degradation Optimizing water cycle in urban water systems becomes crucial towards the solving of the above-mentioned problems and the achievement of the sustainability goal This study introduces a novel Water Eco-Nexus Cycle System (WaterEcoNet) that highlights the significance of reclaimed water (RW) in urban water cycle so as to enhance water ecosystem functions and public acceptance, reduce distribution costs, and strengthen regional water supplies Through the WaterEcoNet model, the interlinks and interactions of multiple components of urban water systems can be well coordinated and embodied Importantly, to ensure safe and long-term operation of WaterEcoNet, it is vital to apply both technical and management strategies for water allocation and fit-for-purpose use, water quality evaluation, monitoring, control, improvement and safety ensurance, etc A case study in a county of China is further presented which illustrates the benefits of WaterEcoNet in enhancing regional water management This study is of great theoretical significance and applicable value in promoting the effectiveness and sustainability of urban water systems

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors comprehensively examined lake area and volume, and glacier mass changes using multi-sensor satellite data, and found that lake expansion in the northwestern Tibetan Plateau was more robust from 1976 to 2018 when compared to other regions of the plateau, especially for the glacier-fed and endorheic lakes.

Journal ArticleDOI
08 Jan 2020-PLOS ONE
TL;DR: This study provides useful guidance for the application of gridded precipitation in hydrological modeling in the Mekong River basin using the gauged rainfall as an input for the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation model.
Abstract: Precipitation, as a primary hydrological variable in the water cycle plays an important role in hydrological modeling. The reliability of hydrological modeling is highly related to the quality of precipitation data. Accurate long-term gauged precipitation in the Mekong River Basin, however, is limited. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to assess the performances of various gridded precipitation datasets in rainfall-runoff and flood-inundation modeling of the whole basin. Firstly, the performance of the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model in this basin was evaluated using the gauged rainfall. The calibration (2000-2003) and validation (2004-2007) results indicated that the RRI model had acceptable performance in the Mekong River Basin. In addition, five gridded precipitation datasets including APHRODITE, GPCC, PERSIANN-CDR, GSMaP (RNL), and TRMM (3B42V7) from 2000 to 2007 were applied as the input to the calibrated model. The results of the simulated river discharge indicated that TRMM, GPCC, and APHRODITE performed better than other datasets. The statistical index of the annual maximum inundated area indicated similar conclusions. Thus, APHRODITE, TRMM, and GPCC precipitation datasets were considered suitable for rainfall-runoff and flood inundation modeling in the Mekong River Basin. This study provides useful guidance for the application of gridded precipitation in hydrological modeling in the Mekong River basin.

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TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the variation of water ice clouds in the perihelion season of Mars Year 34 (April 2018•19), their diurnal and seasonal behavior, and the vertical structure and microphysical properties of the water ice and dust.
Abstract: Observations of water ice clouds and aerosols on Mars can provide important insights into the complexity of the water cycle. Recent observations have indicated an important link between dust activity and the water cycle, as intense dust activity can significantly raise the hygropause, and subsequently increase the escape of water after dissociation in the upper atmosphere. Here present observations from NOMAD/TGO that investigate the variation of water ice clouds in the perihelion season of Mars Year 34 (April 2018‐19), their diurnal and seasonal behavior, and the vertical structure and microphysical properties of water ice and dust. These observations reveal the recurrent presence of a layer of mesospheric water ice clouds subsequent to the 2018 Global Dust Storm. We show that this layer rose from 45 to 80 km in altitude on a timescale of days from heating in the lower atmosphere due to the storm. In addition, we demonstrate that there is a strong dawn dusk asymmetry in water ice abundance, related to nighttime nucleation and subsequent daytime sublimation. Water ice particle sizes are retrieved consistently and exhibit sharp vertical gradients (from 0.1 to 4.0 μm), as well as mesospheric differences between the Global Dust Storm (<0.5 μm) and the 2019 regional dust storm (1.0 μm), which suggests differing water ice nucleation efficiencies. These results form the basis to advance our understanding of mesospheric water ice clouds on Mars, and further constrain the interactions between water ice and dust in the middle atmosphere.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a simple forward model that describes how surface reflectivity measured by Global Navigation Satellite System-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) should change due to flooding for different land surface types is presented.