University of York

About: University of York is a education organization based out in York, York, United Kingdom. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Health care. The organization has 22089 authors who have published 56925 publications receiving 2458285 citations. The organization is also known as: York University & Ebor..

Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges

Abstract: We analyse distribution records for 51 British butterfly species to investigate altitudinal and latitudinal responses to twentieth century climate warming. Species with northern and/or montane distributions have disappeared from low elevation sites and colonized sites at higher elevations during the twentieth century, consistent with a climate explanation. We found no evidence for a systematic shift northwards across all species, even though 11 out of 46 southerly distributed species have expanded in the northern part of their distributions. For a subset of 35 species, we model the role of climate in limiting current European distributions and predict potential future distributions for the period 2070-2099. Most northerly distributed species will have little opportunity to expand northwards and will disappear from areas in the south, resulting in reduced range sizes. Southerly distributed species will have the potential to shift northwards, resulting in similar or increased range sizes. However, 30 out of 35 study species have failed to track recent climate changes because of lack of suitable habitat, so we revised our estimates accordingly for these species and predicted 65% and 24% declines in range sizes for northern and southern species, respectively. These revised estimates are likely to be more realistic predictions of future butterfly range sizes.

Pathogens and host immunity in the ancient human oral cavity

Abstract: Calcified dental plaque (dental calculus) preserves for millennia and entraps biomolecules from all domains of life and viruses. We report the first, to our knowledge, high-resolution taxonomic and protein functional characterization of the ancient oral microbiome and demonstrate that the oral cavity has long served as a reservoir for bacteria implicated in both local and systemic disease. We characterize (i) the ancient oral microbiome in a diseased state, (ii) 40 opportunistic pathogens, (iii) ancient human-associated putative antibiotic resistance genes, (iv) a genome reconstruction of the periodontal pathogen Tannerella forsythia, (v) 239 bacterial and 43 human proteins, allowing confirmation of a long-term association between host immune factors, 'red complex' pathogens and periodontal disease, and (vi) DNA sequences matching dietary sources. Directly datable and nearly ubiquitous, dental calculus permits the simultaneous investigation of pathogen activity, host immunity and diet, thereby extending direct investigation of common diseases into the human evolutionary past.

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for NICE technology assessment: not an optional extra

Abstract: Recently the National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) updated its methods guidance for technology assessment. One aspect of the new guidance is to require the use of probabilistic sensitivity analysis with all cost-effectiveness models submitted to the Institute. The purpose of this paper is to place the NICE guidance on dealing with uncertainty into a broader context of the requirements for decision making; to explain the general approach that was taken in its development; and to address each of the issues which have been raised in the debate about the role of probabilistic sensitivity analysis in general. The most appropriate starting point for developing guidance is to establish what is required for decision making. On the basis of these requirements, the methods and framework of analysis which can best meet these needs can then be identified. It will be argued that the guidance on dealing with uncertainty and, in particular, the requirement for probabilistic sensitivity analysis, is justified by the requirements of the type of decisions that NICE is asked to make. Given this foundation, the main issues and criticisms raised during and after the consultation process are reviewed. Finally, some of the methodological challenges posed by the need fully to characterise decision uncertainty and to inform the research agenda will be identified and discussed.

Extinction risk in the sea

Abstract: Jean Baptiste de Lamarck and Thomas Huxley, two of the foremost thinkers of the 18th and 19th centuries, believed that humanity could not cause the extinction of marine species. Their opinions reflected a widespread belief that the seas were an inexhaustible source of food and wealth of which people could barely use a fraction. Such views were given weight by the abundant fisheries of the time. Additionally, the incredible fecundity and wide distributions of marine fishes, combined with limited exploitation, provided ample justification for optimism. The ideas of Huxley and Lamarck persist to this day, despite a sea change in the scale and depth of our influence on the oceans. Marine species could be at a far greater risk of extinction than we have assumed.

The cognitive and behavioral characteristics of children with low working memory.

Abstract: This study explored the cognitive and behavioral profiles of children with working memory impairments. In an initial screening of 3,189 five- to eleven-year-olds, 308 were identified as having very low working memory scores. Cognitive skills (IQ, vocabulary, reading, and math), classroom behavior, and self-esteem were assessed. The majority of the children struggled in the learning measures and verbal ability. They also obtained atypically high ratings of cognitive problems/inattentive symptoms and were judged to have short attention spans, high levels of distractibility, problems in monitoring the quality of their work, and difficulties in generating new solutions to problems. These data provide rich new information on the cognitive and behavioral profiles that characterize children with low working memory.