Showing papers by "World Bank published in 2015"

Systems integration for global sustainability

Abstract: Global sustainability challenges, from maintaining biodiversity to providing clean air and water, are closely interconnected yet often separately studied and managed. Systems integration—holistic approaches to integrating various components of coupled human and natural systems—is critical to understand socioeconomic and environmental interconnections and to create sustainability solutions. Recent advances include the development and quantification of integrated frameworks that incorporate ecosystem services, environmental footprints, planetary boundaries, human-nature nexuses, and telecoupling. Although systems integration has led to fundamental discoveries and practical applications, further efforts are needed to incorporate more human and natural components simultaneously, quantify spillover systems and feedbacks, integrate multiple spatial and temporal scales, develop new tools, and translate findings into policy and practice. Such efforts can help address important knowledge gaps, link seemingly unconnected challenges, and inform policy and management decisions.

The Global Findex Database 2014: measuring financial inclusion around the world

Abstract: The Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) database, launched by the World Bank in 2011, provides comparable indicators showing how people around the world save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. The 2014 edition of the database reveals that 62 percent of adults worldwide have an account at a bank or another type of financial institution or with a mobile money provider. Between 2011 and 2014, 700 million adults became account holders while the number of those without an account?the unbanked?dropped by 20 percent to 2 billion. What drove this increase in account ownership? A growth in account penetration of 13 percentage points in developing economies and innovations in technology?particularly mobile money, which is helping to rapidly expand access to financial services in Sub-Saharan Africa. Along with these gains, the data also show that big opportunities remain to increase financial inclusion, especially among women and poor people. Governments and the private sector can play a pivotal role by shifting the payment of wages and government transfers from cash into accounts. There are also large opportunities to spur greater use of accounts, allowing those who already have one to benefit more fully from financial inclusion. In developing economies 1.3 billion adults with an account pay utility bills in cash, and more than half a billion pay school fees in cash. Digitizing payments like these would enable account holders to make the payments in a way that is easier, more affordable, and more secure.

Using qualitative evidence in decision making for health and social interventions: an approach to assess confidence in findings from qualitative evidence syntheses (GRADE-CERQual)

Abstract: Simon Lewin and colleagues present a methodology for increasing transparency and confidence in qualitative research synthesis.

A new urban landscape in East?Southeast Asia, 2000?2010

Abstract: East–Southeast Asia is currently one of the fastest urbanizing regions in the world, with countries such as China climbing from 20 to 50 percent urbanized in just a few decades. By 2050, these countries are projected to add 1 billion people, with 90 percent of that growth occurring in cities. This population shift parallels an equally astounding amount of built-up land expansion. However, spatially-and temporally detailed information on regional-scale changes in urban land or population distribution do not exist; previous efforts have been either sample-based, focused on one country, or drawn conclusions from datasets with substantial temporal/spatial mismatch and variability in urban definitions. Using consistent methodology, satellite imagery and census data for greater than1000 agglomerations in the East–Southeast Asian region, the authors show that urban land increased to greater than 22 percent between 2000 and 2010 (from 155 000 to 189 000 square kilometers), an amount equivalent to the area of Taiwan, while urban populations climbed greater than 31 percent (from 738 to 969 million). Although urban land expanded at unprecedented rates, urban populations grew more rapidly, resulting in increasing densities for the majority of urban agglomerations, including those in both more developed (Japan, South Korea) and industrializing nations (China, Vietnam, Indonesia). This result contrasts previous sample-based studies, which conclude that cities are universally declining in density. The patterns and rates of change uncovered by these datasets provide a unique record of the massive urban transition currently underway in East–Southeast Asia that is impacting local-regional climate, pollution levels, water quality and availability, arable land, as well as the livelihoods and vulnerability of populations in the region.

Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China

Abstract: China has defied the declining trend in domestic content in exports in many countries. This paper studies China’s rising domestic content in exports using firm- and customs transaction-level data. The approach embraces firm heterogeneity and hence reduces aggregation bias. The study finds that the substitution of domestic for imported materials by individual processing exporters caused China’s domestic content in exports to increase from 65 to 70 percent in 2000–2007. Such substitution was induced by the country’s trade and investment liberalization, which deepened its engagement in global value chains and led to a greater variety of domestic materials becoming available at lower prices.

The Global Findex Database 2014 : measuring financial inclusion around the world

Abstract: The Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) database, launched by the World Bank in 2011, provides comparable indicators showing how people around the world save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. The 2014 edition of the database reveals that 62 percent of adults worldwide have an account at a bank or another type of financial institution or with a mobile money provider. Between 2011 and 2014, 700 million adults became account holders while the number of those without an account—the unbanked—dropped by 20 percent to 2 billion. What drove this increase in account ownership? A growth in account penetration of 13 percentage points in developing economies and innovations in technology—particularly mobile money, which is helping to rapidly expand access to financial services in Sub-Saharan Africa. Along with these gains, the data also show that big opportunities remain to increase financial inclusion, especially among women and poor people. Governments and the private sector can play a pivotal role by shifting the payment of wages and government transfers from cash into accounts. There are also large opportunities to spur greater use of accounts, allowing those who already have one to benefit more fully from financial inclusion. In developing economies 1.3 billion adults with an account pay utility bills in cash, and more than half a billion pay school fees in cash. Digitizing payments like these would enable account holders to make the payments in a way that is easier, more affordable, and more secure.

Fish to 2030 : the role and opportunity for aquaculture

Abstract: Seafood sector can contribute to the global food supply in an important way, and provide an important source of animal protein. Based on observed regional trends in seafood production and consumption and using a global, partial-equilibrium, multi-market model, this study investigates what the global seafood market may look like in 2030. The model projects that the total fish supply will increase from 154 million tons in 2011 to 186 million tons in 2030, with aquaculture entirely responsible for the increase. The fastest aquaculture growth is expected for tilapia and shrimp, while the largest expansion is expected in India, Latin America and Caribbean and Southeast Asia. Fast-growing seafood demand in China and elsewhere represents a critical opportunity for global fisheries and aquaculture to improve their management and achieve sustainable seafood economy.

The Fishery Performance Indicators: A Management Tool for Triple Bottom Line Outcomes

Abstract: Pursuit of the triple bottom line of economic, community and ecological sustainability has increased the complexity of fishery management; fisheries assessments require new types of data and analysis to guide science-based policy in addition to traditional biological information and modeling. The authors introduce the Fishery Performance Indicators (FPIs), a broadly applicable and flexible tool for assessing performance in individual fisheries, and for establishing cross-sectional links between enabling conditions, management strategies and triple bottom line outcomes. Conceptually separating measures of performance, the FPIs use 68 individual outcome metrics, coded on a 1 to 5 scale based on expert assessment to facilitate application to data poor fisheries and sectors that can be partitioned into sector based or triple-bottom-line sustainability-based interpretative indicators. Variation among outcomes is explained with 54 similarly structured metrics of inputs, management approaches and enabling conditions. Using 61 initial fishery case studies drawn from industrial and developing countries around the world, the authors demonstrate the inferential importance of tracking economic and community outcomes, in addition to resource status.

The future of water resources systems analysis: Toward a scientific framework for sustainable water management

Abstract: This paper presents a short history of water resources systems analysis from its beginnings in the Harvard Water Program, through its continuing evolution toward a general field of water resources systems science. Current systems analysis practice is widespread and addresses the most challenging water issues of our times, including water scarcity and drought, climate change, providing water for food and energy production, decision making amid competing objectives, and bringing economic incentives to bear on water use. The emergence of public recognition and concern for the state of water resources provides an opportune moment for the field to reorient to meet the complex, interdependent, interdisciplinary, and global nature of today's water challenges. At present, water resources systems analysis is limited by low scientific and academic visibility relative to its influence in practice and bridled by localized findings that are difficult to generalize. The evident success of water resource systems analysis in practice (which is set out in this paper) needs in future to be strengthened by substantiating the field as the science of water resources that seeks to predict the water resources variables and outcomes that are important to governments, industries, and the public the world over. Doing so promotes the scientific credibility of the field, provides understanding of the state of water resources and furnishes the basis for predicting the impacts of our water choices.

A global count of the extreme poor in 2012: data issues, methodology and initial results

Abstract: The 2014 release of a new set of purchasing power parity conversion factors (PPPs) for 2011 has prompted a revision of the international poverty line. In order to preserve the integrity of the goalposts for international targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals and the World Bank’s twin goals, the new poverty line was chosen so as to preserve the definition and real purchasing power of the earlier $1.25 line (in 2005 PPPs) in poor countries. Using the new 2011 PPPs, the new line equals $1.90 per person per day. The higher value of the line in US dollars reflects the fact that the new PPPs yield a relatively lower purchasing power of that currency vis-a-vis those of most poor countries. Because the line was designed to preserve real purchasing power in poor countries, the revisions lead to relatively small changes in global poverty incidence: from 14.5 percent in the old method to 14.1 percent in the new method for 2011. In 2012, the new reference year for the global count, we find 12.7 percent of the world’s population, or 897 million people, are living in extreme poverty. There are changes in the regional composition of poverty, but they are also relatively small. This paper documents the detailed methodological decisions taken in the process of updating both the poverty line and the consumption and income distributions at the country level, including issues of inter-temporal and spatial price adjustments. It also describes various caveats, limitations, perils and pitfalls of the approach taken.

Use of standardised patients to assess quality of tuberculosis care: a pilot, cross-sectional study

Abstract: Summary Background Existing studies of the quality of tuberculosis care have relied on recall-based patient surveys, questionnaire surveys of knowledge, and prescription or medical record analysis, and the results mostly show the health-care provider's knowledge rather than actual practice. No study has used standardised patients to assess clinical practice. Therefore we aimed to assess quality of care for tuberculosis using such patients. Methods We did a pilot, cross-sectional validation study of a convenience sample of consenting private health-care providers in low-income and middle-income areas of Delhi, India. We recruited standardised patients in apparently good health from the local community to present four cases (two of presumed tuberculosis and one each of confirmed tuberculosis and suspected multidrug-resistant tuberculosis) to a randomly allocated health-care provider. The key objective was to validate the standardised-patient method using three criteria: negligible risk and ability to avoid adverse events for providers and standardised patients, low detection rates of standardised patients by providers, and data accuracy across standardised patients and audio verification of standardised-patient recall. We also used medical vignettes to assess providers' knowledge of presumed tuberculosis. Correct case management was benchmarked using Standards for Tuberculosis Care in India (STCI). Findings Between Feb 2, and March 28, 2014, we recruited and trained 17 standardised patients who had 250 interactions with 100 health-care providers, 29 of whom were qualified in allopathic medicine (ie, they had a Bachelor of Medicine & Surgery [MBBS] degree), 40 of whom practised alternative medicine, and 31 of whom were informal health-care providers with few or no qualifications. The interactions took place between April 1, and April 23, 2014. The proportion of detected standardised patients was low (11 [5%] detected out of 232 interactions among providers who completed the follow-up survey), and standardised patients' recall correlated highly with audio recordings ( r =0·63 [95% CI 0·53–0·79]), with no safety concerns reported. The mean consultation length was 6 min (95% CI 5·5–6·6) with a mean of 6·18 (5·72–6·64) questions or examinations completed, representing 35% (33–38) of essential checklist items. Across all cases, only 52 (21% [16–26]) of 250 were correctly managed. Correct management was higher among MBBS-qualified doctors than other types of health-care provider (adjusted odds ratio 2·41 [95% CI 1·17–4·93]; p=0·0166). Of the 69 providers who completed the vignette, knowledge in the vignettes was more consistent with STCI than their actual clinical practice—eg, 50 (73%) ordered a chest radiograph or sputum test during the vignette compared with seven (10%) during the standardised-patient interaction; OR 0·04 (95% CI 0·02–0·11); p Interpretation Standardised patients can be successfully implemented to assess tuberculosis care. Our data suggest a big gap between private provider knowledge and practice. Additional work is needed to substantiate our pilot data, understand the know-do gap in provider behaviour, and to identify the best approach to measure and improve the quality of tuberculosis care in India. Funding Grand Challenges Canada, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Knowledge for Change Program, and the World Bank Development Research Group.

Disaster risk, climate change, and poverty : assessing the global exposure of poor people to floods and droughts

Abstract: People living in poverty are particularly vulnerable to shocks, including those caused by natural disasters such as floods and droughts. Previous studies in local contexts have shown that poor people are also often overrepresented in hazard-prone areas. However, systematic evidence across countries demonstrating this finding is lacking. This paper analyzes at the country level whether poor people are disproportionally exposed to floods and droughts, and how this exposure may change in a future climate. To this end, household survey data with spatial identifiers from 52 countries are combined with present-day and future flood and drought hazard maps. The paper defines and calculates a “poverty exposure bias” and finds support that poor people are often overexposed to droughts and urban floods. For floods, no such signal is found for rural households, suggesting that different mechanisms—such as land scarcity—are more important drivers in urban areas. The poverty exposure bias does not change significantly under future climate scenarios, although the absolute number of people potentially exposed to floods or droughts can increase or decrease significantly, depending on the scenario and the region. The study finds some evidence of regional patterns: in particular, many countries in Africa exhibit a positive poverty exposure bias for floods and droughts. For these hot spots, implementing risk-sensitive land-use and development policies that protect poor people should be a priority.

Analyzing Cell Phone Location Data for Urban Travel: Current Methods, Limitations, and Opportunities

Abstract: Travelers today use technology that generates vast amounts of data at low cost. These data could supplement most outputs of regional travel demand models. New analysis tools could change how data and modeling are used in the assessment of travel demand. Recent work has shown how processed origin–destination trips, as developed by trip data providers, support travel analysis. Much less has been reported on how raw data from telecommunication providers can be processed to support such an analysis or to what extent the raw data can be treated to extract travel behavior. This paper discusses how cell phone data can be processed to inform a four-step transportation model, with a focus on the limitations and opportunities of such data. The illustrated data treatment approach uses only phone data and population density to generate trip matrices in two metropolitan areas: Boston, Massachusetts, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. How to label zones as home- and work-based according to frequency and time of day is detaile...

Accelerating health equity: the key role of universal health coverage in the Sustainable Development Goals.

Abstract: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), to be committed to by Heads of State at the upcoming 2015 United Nations General Assembly, have set much higher and more ambitious health-related goals and targets than did the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The main challenge among MDG off-track countries is the failure to provide and sustain financial access to quality services by communities, especially the poor. Universal health coverage (UHC), one of the SDG health targets indispensable to achieving an improved level and distribution of health, requires a significant increase in government investment in strengthening primary healthcare - the close-to-client service which can result in equitable access. Given the trend of increased fiscal capacity in most developing countries, aiming at long-term progress toward UHC is feasible, if there is political commitment and if focused, effective policies are in place. Trends in high income countries, including an aging population which increases demand for health workers, continue to trigger international migration of health personnel from low and middle income countries. The inspirational SDGs must be matched with redoubled government efforts to strengthen health delivery systems, produce and retain more and relevant health workers, and progressively realize UHC.

Turning a Shove into a Nudge? A "Labeled Cash Transfer" for Education †

Abstract: Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs) have been shown to increase human capital investments, but their standard features make them expensive. We use a large randomized experiment in Morocco to estimate an alternative government-run program, a “labeled cash transfer” (LCT): a small cash transfer made to fathers of school-aged children in poor rural communities, not conditional on school attendance but explicitly labeled as an education support program. We document large gains in school participation. Adding conditionality and targeting mothers made almost no difference in our context. The program increased parents’ belief that education was a worthwhile investment, a likely pathway for the results. (JEL H23, I24, 128, I38, J24, O15, O18) This paper evaluates the impact of a “labeled cash transfer” (LCT). The program we evaluate features small transfers, targeted to poor communities (with all households eligible in those communities), and paid out to fathers. The program is unconditional but retains an implicit endorsement of education through its school-based enrollment procedure. This program was designed and implemented on a (randomized) pilot basis by Morocco’s Ministry of Education. Within the same experiment, conducted over 600 communities, we compared it to three variants: (i) making the transfer explicitly conditional on regular attendance, (ii) making payments to mothers instead of fathers, and (iii) doing both at the same time.

The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

Abstract: This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.

Industry Expertise of Independent Directors and Board Monitoring

Abstract: Does industry experience affect the monitoring effectiveness of independent directors? On the one hand, prior industry experience provides independent directors industry-specific knowledge and expertise critical for understanding and evaluating managerial decision making, thereby enhancing their monitoring capability. On the other hand, independent directors with prior experience in the firm’s industry may be socially connected with or sympathetic to the firm’s management, thus impairing their monitoring incentives. We test these competing hypotheses in a variety of firm polices and decision making. Specifically, we find that the presence of independent directors with industry experience on a firm’s audit committee significantly curtails firms’ earnings management via abnormal accruals and reduces both ex ante and ex post probabilities of firms committing financial fraud. In addition, a greater representation of independent directors with industry expertise on a firm’s compensation committee reduces CEO excess compensation and a greater presence of such directors on the full board increases the CEO turnover-performance sensitivity and improves acquirer returns from diversifying acquisitions. Overall, the evidence is the consistent with the hypothesis that having relevant industry expertise enhances independent directors’ ability to perform their monitoring function. As such, our study sheds new light on the determinants of board effectiveness and provides important policy implications for the design of corporate boards.

Climate change and soil salinity: The case of coastal Bangladesh.

Abstract: This paper estimates location-specific soil salinity in coastal Bangladesh for 2050. The analysis was conducted in two stages: First, changes in soil salinity for the period 2001–2009 were assessed using information recorded at 41 soil monitoring stations by the Soil Research Development Institute. Using these data, a spatial econometric model was estimated linking soil salinity with the salinity of nearby rivers, land elevation, temperature, and rainfall. Second, future soil salinity for 69 coastal sub-districts was projected from climate-induced changes in river salinity and projections of rainfall and temperature based on time trends for 20 Bangladesh Meteorological Department weather stations in the coastal region. The findings indicate that climate change poses a major soil salinization risk in coastal Bangladesh. Across 41 monitoring stations, the annual median projected change in soil salinity is 39 % by 2050. Above the median, 25 % of all stations have projected changes of 51 % or higher.