Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point
TLDR
In this paper, the authors proposed a conceptual model comprising a cascade of tipping points as a vehicle for past abrupt climate changes, where changes in a control parameter, which could for instance be related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, induce sequential tipping of sea ice cover and the ocean's meridional overturning circulation.Abstract:
. We propose a conceptual model comprising a cascade of tipping points as a
mechanism for past abrupt climate changes. In the model, changes in a control parameter, which could for instance be related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, induce sequential tipping of sea ice cover and the ocean's meridional overturning circulation. The ocean component, represented by the well-known Stommel box model, is shown to display so-called rate-induced tipping. Here, an abrupt resurgence of the overturning circulation is induced before a bifurcation point is reached due to the fast rate of change of the sea ice. Because of the multi-scale nature of the climate system, this type of tipping cascade may also be a risk concerning future global warming. The relatively short timescales involved make it challenging to detect these tipping points from observations. However, with our conceptual model we find that there can be a significant delay in the tipping because the system is attracted by the stable manifold of a saddle during the rate-induced transition before escaping towards the undesired state. This opens up the possibility for an early warning of the impending abrupt transition via detection of the changing linear stability in the vicinity of the saddle. To do so, we propose estimating the Jacobian from the noisy time series. This is shown to be a useful generic precursor to detect rate-induced tipping.read more
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References
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Marten Scheffer,Jordi Bascompte,William A. Brock,Victor Brovkin,Stephen R. Carpenter,Vasilis Dakos,Hermann Held,Egbert H. van Nes,Max Rietkerk,George Sugihara +9 more
TL;DR: Work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.
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TL;DR: It is explained how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points, and critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing.
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Journal ArticleDOI
Anticipating Critical Transitions
Marten Scheffer,Marten Scheffer,Stephen R. Carpenter,Timothy M. Lenton,Jordi Bascompte,William A. Brock,Vasilis Dakos,Vasilis Dakos,Johan van de Koppel,Ingrid A. van de Leemput,Simon A. Levin,Egbert H. van Nes,Mercedes Pascual,Mercedes Pascual,John Vandermeer +14 more
TL;DR: How previously isolated lines of work can be connected are reviewed, it is concluded that many critical transitions (such as escape from the poverty trap) can have positive outcomes, and how the new approaches to sensing fragility can help to detect both risks and opportunities for desired change.