Journal ArticleDOI
Land cover change or land‐use intensification: simulating land system change with a global‐scale land change model
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TLDR
Model results for the OECD Environmental Outlook scenario show that allocation of increased agricultural production by either management intensification or area expansion varies both among and within world regions, providing useful insight into the land sparing versus land sharing debate.Abstract:
Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land systems that are characterized by their land cover mosaic, the agricultural management intensity, and livestock. Land system changes are simulated by the model, driven by regional demand for goods and influenced by local factors that either constrain or promote land system conversion. A characteristic of the new model is the endogenous simulation of intensification of agricultural management versus expansion of arable land, and urban versus rural settlements expansion based on land availability in the neighborhood of the location. Model results for the OECD Environmental Outlook scenario show that allocation of increased agricultural production by either management intensification or area expansion varies both among and within world regions, providing useful insight into the land sparing versus land sharing debate. The land system approach allows the inclusion of different types of demand for goods and services from the land system as a driving factor of land system change. Simulation results are compared to observed changes over the 1970-2000 period and projections of other global and regional land change models. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.read more
Citations
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Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity
Tim Newbold,Lawrence N. Hudson,Samantha L. L. Hill,Sara Contu,Igor Lysenko,Rebecca A. Senior,Luca Börger,Dominic J. Bennett,Argyrios Choimes,Ben Collen,Julie Day,Adriana De Palma,Sandra Díaz,Susy Echeverría-Londoño,Melanie J. Edgar,Anat Feldman,Morgan Garon,Michelle L K Harrison,Tamera I Alhusseini,Daniel J. Ingram,Yuval Itescu,Jens Kattge,Victoria Kemp,Lucinda Kirkpatrick,Michael Kleyer,David L P Correia,Callum D. Martin,Shai Meiri,Maria Novosolov,Yuan Pan,Helen Phillips,Drew W. Purves,Alexandra N Robinson,Jake Simpson,Sean L. Tuck,Evan Weiher,Hannah J. White,Robert M. Ewers,Georgina M. Mace,Jörn P. W. Scharlemann,Andy Purvis +40 more
TL;DR: A terrestrial assemblage database of unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage is analysed to quantify local biodiversity responses to land use and related changes and shows that in the worst-affected habitats, pressures reduce within-sample species richness by an average of 76.5%, total abundance by 39.5% and rarefaction-based richness by 40.3%.
Journal ArticleDOI
A future land use simulation model (FLUS) for simulating multiple land use scenarios by coupling human and natural effects
Xiaoping Liu,Xun Liang,Xia Li,Xia Li,Xiaocong Xu,Jinpei Ou,Yimin Chen,Yimin Chen,Shaoying Li,Shaojian Wang,Fengsong Pei +10 more
TL;DR: A future land use simulation (FLUS) model that explicitly simulates the long-term spatial trajectories of multiple LUCCs, and the simulation accuracy is higher than other well-accepted models, such as CLUE-S and CA models.
Journal ArticleDOI
Has land use pushed terrestrial biodiversity beyond the planetary boundary? A global assessment
Tim Newbold,Tim Newbold,Lawrence N. Hudson,Andrew P. Arnell,Sara Contu,Adriana De Palma,Adriana De Palma,Simon Ferrier,Samantha L. L. Hill,Samantha L. L. Hill,Andrew J. Hoskins,Igor Lysenko,Helen Phillips,Helen Phillips,Victoria J. Burton,Charlotte W T Chng,Susan R Emerson,Di Gao,Gwilym D Pask-Hale,Jon Hutton,Jon Hutton,Martin Jung,Martin Jung,Katia Sanchez-Ortiz,Benno I. Simmons,Benno I. Simmons,Sarah Whitmee,Hanbin Zhang,Jörn P. W. Scharlemann,Jörn P. W. Scharlemann,Andy Purvis,Andy Purvis +31 more
TL;DR: It is estimated that land use and related pressures have already reduced local biodiversity intactness—the average proportion of natural biodiversity remaining in local ecosystems—beyond its recently proposed planetary boundary across 58.1% of the world’s land surface, where 71.4%) of the human population live.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global protected area expansion is compromised by projected land-use and parochialism
Federico Montesino Pouzols,Tuuli Toivonen,Enrico Di Minin,Aija S. Kukkala,Peter Kullberg,Johanna Kuusterä,Joona Lehtomäki,Henrikki Tenkanen,Peter H. Verburg,Atte Moilanen +9 more
TL;DR: It is shown that with a coordinated global protected area network expansion to 17% of terrestrial land, average protection of species ranges and ecoregions could triple and a major efficiency gap between national and global conservation priorities is demonstrated.
Journal ArticleDOI
Managing the middle: A shift in conservation priorities based on the global human modification gradient.
Christina M. Kennedy,James R. Oakleaf,David M. Theobald,Sharon Baruch-Mordo,Joseph M. Kiesecker +4 more
TL;DR: A cumulative measure of human modification of terrestrial lands based on modeling the physical extents of 13 anthropogenic stressors and their estimated impacts using spatially explicit global datasets with a median year of 2016 suggests that most of the world is in a state of intermediate modification and moderately modified ecoregions warrant elevated attention.
References
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Global Consequences of Land Use
Jonathan A. Foley,Ruth DeFries,Gregory P. Asner,Carol C. Barford,Gordon B. Bonan,Stephen R. Carpenter,F. Stuart Chapin,Michael T. Coe,Michael T. Coe,Gretchen C. Daily,Holly K. Gibbs,Joseph H. Helkowski,Tracey Holloway,Erica A. Howard,Christopher J. Kucharik,Chad Monfreda,Jonathan A. Patz,I. Colin Prentice,Navin Ramankutty,Peter K. Snyder +19 more
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