The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections
Trond Iversen,Trond Iversen,Trond Iversen,Mats Bentsen,Ingo Bethke,Jens Boldingh Debernard,Alf Kirkevåg,Øyvind Seland,Helge Drange,Helge Drange,Jón Egill Kristjánsson,Iselin Medhaug,Iselin Medhaug,Maria Sand,Ivar A. Seierstad +14 more
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NorESM1-M as mentioned in this paper is based on the model CCSM4 operated at NCAR, but the ocean model is replaced by a modified version of MICOM and the atmospheric model is extended with online calculations of aerosols, their direct effect and their indirect effect on warm clouds.Abstract:
. NorESM is a generic name of the Norwegian earth system model. The first version is named NorESM1, and has been applied with medium spatial resolution to provide results for CMIP5 ( http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/index.html ) without (NorESM1-M) and with (NorESM1-ME) interactive carbon-cycling. Together with the accompanying paper by Bentsen et al. (2012), this paper documents that the core version NorESM1-M is a valuable global climate model for research and for providing complementary results to the evaluation of possible anthropogenic climate change. NorESM1-M is based on the model CCSM4 operated at NCAR, but the ocean model is replaced by a modified version of MICOM and the atmospheric model is extended with online calculations of aerosols, their direct effect and their indirect effect on warm clouds. Model validation is presented in the companion paper (Bentsen et al., 2012). NorESM1-M is estimated to have equilibrium climate sensitivity of ca. 2.9 K and a transient climate response of ca. 1.4 K. This sensitivity is in the lower range amongst the models contributing to CMIP5. Cloud feedbacks dampen the response, and a strong AMOC reduces the heat fraction available for increasing near-surface temperatures, for evaporation and for melting ice. The future projections based on RCP scenarios yield a global surface air temperature increase of almost one standard deviation lower than a 15-model average. Summer sea-ice is projected to decrease considerably by 2100 and disappear completely for RCP8.5. The AMOC is projected to decrease by 12%, 15–17%, and 32% for the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Precipitation is projected to increase in the tropics, decrease in the subtropics and in southern parts of the northern extra-tropics during summer, and otherwise increase in most of the extra-tropics. Changes in the atmospheric water cycle indicate that precipitation events over continents will become more intense and dry spells more frequent. Extra-tropical storminess in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to shift northwards. There are indications of more frequent occurrence of spring and summer blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sector, while the amplitude of ENSO events weakens although they tend to appear more frequently. These indications are uncertain because of biases in the model's representation of present-day conditions. Positive phase PNA and negative phase NAO both appear less frequently under the RCP8.5 scenario, but also this result is considered uncertain. Single-forcing experiments indicate that aerosols and greenhouse gases produce similar geographical patterns of response for near-surface temperature and precipitation. These patterns tend to have opposite signs, although with important exceptions for precipitation at low latitudes. The asymmetric aerosol effects between the two hemispheres lead to a southward displacement of ITCZ. Both forcing agents, thus, tend to reduce Northern Hemispheric subtropical precipitation.read more
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Book Chapter
Chapter 12 - Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility
Matthew Collins,R. Knutti,Julie M. Arblaster,J.-L. Dufresne,T. Fichefet,P. Friedlingstein,Xuejie Gao,William J. Gutowski,T. Johns,Gerhard Krinner,Mxolisi Shongwe,C. Tebaldi,A.J. Weaver,M. F. Wehner +13 more
TL;DR: The authors assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system.
Book ChapterDOI
Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles
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TL;DR: For base year 2010, anthropogenic activities created ~210 (190 to 230) TgN of reactive nitrogen Nr from N2 as discussed by the authors, which is at least 2 times larger than the rate of natural terrestrial creation of ~58 Tg N (50 to 100 Tg nr yr−1) (Table 6.9, Section 1a).
Journal ArticleDOI
The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate
Mats Bentsen,Ingo Bethke,Jens Boldingh Debernard,Trond Iversen,Trond Iversen,Trond Iversen,Alf Kirkevåg,Øyvind Seland,Helge Drange,Helge Drange,C. Roelandt,Ivar A. Seierstad,Corinna Hoose,Corinna Hoose,Jón Egill Kristjánsson +14 more
TL;DR: The core version of the Norwegian Climate Center's Earth System Model, named NorESM1-M, is presented in this paper, where a first-order assessment of the model stability, the mean model state and the internal variability based on the model experiments made available to CMIP5 are presented.
Journal ArticleDOI
Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change
Miroslav Trnka,Miroslav Trnka,Reimund P. Rötter,Margarita Ruiz-Ramos,Kurt Christian Kersebaum,Jørgen E. Olesen,Zdeněk Žalud,Zdeněk Žalud,Mikhail A. Semenov +8 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present an analysis that accounts for a range of adverse weather events that might significantly affect wheat yield in Europe, using climate scenarios based on the most recent ensemble of climate models and greenhouse gases emission estimates.
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Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations
Veronika Eyring,Julie M. Arblaster,Julie M. Arblaster,Irene Cionni,Jan Sedláček,Judith Perlwitz,Judith Perlwitz,Paul Young,Paul Young,Paul Young,Slimane Bekki,Daniel Bergmann,Philip Cameron-Smith,William J. Collins,William J. Collins,Gregory Faluvegi,Klaus-Dirk Gottschaldt,Larry W. Horowitz,Douglas E. Kinnison,Jean-Francois Lamarque,Daniel R. Marsh,David Saint-Martin,Drew Shindell,Kengo Sudo,Sophie Szopa,Shingo Watanabe +25 more
TL;DR: In this article, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP).
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TL;DR: The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) as discussed by the authors is a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments.
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