Journal ArticleDOI
Why psychologists must change the way they analyze their data: the case of psi: comment on Bem (2011).
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
It is concluded that Bem's p values do not indicate evidence in favor of precognition; instead, they indicate that experimental psychologists need to change the way they conduct their experiments and analyze their data.Abstract:
Does psi exist? D. J. Bem (2011) conducted 9 studies with over 1,000 participants in an attempt to demonstrate that future events retroactively affect people’s responses. Here we discuss several limitations of Bem’s experiments on psi; in particular, we show that the data analysis was partly exploratory and that one-sided p values may overstate the statistical evidence against the null hypothesis. We reanalyze Bem’s data with a default Bayesian t test and show that the evidence for psi is weak to nonexistent. We argue that in order to convince a skeptical audience of a controversial claim, one needs to conduct strictly confirmatory studies and analyze the results with statistical tests that are conservative rather than liberal. We conclude that Bem’s p values do not indicate evidence in favor of precognition; instead, they indicate that experimental psychologists need to change the way they conduct their experiments and analyze their data.read more
Citations
More filters
Book
Machine Learning : A Probabilistic Perspective
TL;DR: This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, based on a unified, probabilistic approach, and is suitable for upper-level undergraduates with an introductory-level college math background and beginning graduate students.
Journal ArticleDOI
False-Positive Psychology: Undisclosed Flexibility in Data Collection and Analysis Allows Presenting Anything as Significant
TL;DR: It is shown that despite empirical psychologists’ nominal endorsement of a low rate of false-positive findings, flexibility in data collection, analysis, and reporting dramatically increases actual false- positive rates, and a simple, low-cost, and straightforwardly effective disclosure-based solution is suggested.
Journal ArticleDOI
Why most published research findings are false
TL;DR: Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true.
Book
Bayesian Cognitive Modeling: A Practical Course
TL;DR: In this article, the basics of Bayesian analysis are discussed, and a WinBUGS-based approach is presented to get started with WinBUGs, which is based on the SIMPLE model of memory.
Journal ArticleDOI
Editors' Introduction to the Special Section on Replicability in Psychological Science: A Crisis of Confidence?
TL;DR: Although the very public problems experienced by psychology over this 2-year period are embarrassing to those of us working in the field, some have found comfort in the fact that, over the same period, similar concerns have been arising across the scientific landscape.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications
David A. Freedman,William Feller +1 more
Journal ArticleDOI
An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications.
Book
Theory of probability
Harold Jeffreys,R. Bruce Lindsay +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors introduce the concept of direct probabilities, approximate methods and simplifications, and significant importance tests for various complications, including one new parameter, and various complications for frequency definitions and direct methods.
BookDOI
Probability theory : the logic of science
TL;DR: In this article, a survey of elementary applications of probability theory can be found, including the following: 1. Plausible reasoning 2. The quantitative rules 3. Elementary sampling theory 4. Elementary hypothesis testing 5. Queer uses for probability theory 6. Elementary parameter estimation 7. The central, Gaussian or normal distribution 8. Sufficiency, ancillarity, and all that 9. Repetitive experiments, probability and frequency 10. Advanced applications: 11. Discrete prior probabilities, the entropy principle 12. Simple applications of decision theory 15.
Related Papers (5)
False-Positive Psychology: Undisclosed Flexibility in Data Collection and Analysis Allows Presenting Anything as Significant
Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science
Alexander A. Aarts,Joanna E. Anderson,Christopher J. Anderson,Peter Raymond Attridge,Peter Raymond Attridge,Angela S. Attwood,Jordan Axt,Molly Babel,Štěpán Bahník,Erica Baranski,Michael Barnett-Cowan,Elizabeth Bartmess,Jennifer S. Beer,Raoul Bell,Heather Bentley,Leah Beyan,Grace Binion,Grace Binion,Denny Borsboom,Annick Bosch,Frank A. Bosco,Sara Bowman,Mark J. Brandt,Erin L Braswell,Hilmar Brohmer,Benjamin T. Brown,Kristina G. Brown,Jovita Brüning,Jovita Brüning,Ann Calhoun-Sauls,Shannon P. Callahan,Elizabeth Chagnon,Jesse Chandler,Jesse Chandler,Christopher R. Chartier,Felix Cheung,Felix Cheung,Cody D. Christopherson,Linda Cillessen,Russ Clay,Hayley M. D. Cleary,Mark D. Cloud,Michael Conn,Johanna Cohoon,Simon Columbus,Andreas Cordes,Giulio Costantini,Leslie Cramblet Alvarez,Ed Cremata,Jan Crusius,Jamie DeCoster,Michelle A. DeGaetano,Nicolás Delia Penna,Bobby Den Bezemer,Marie K. Deserno,Olivia Devitt,Laura Dewitte,David G. Dobolyi,Geneva T. Dodson,M. Brent Donnellan,Ryan Donohue,Rebecca A. Dore,Angela Rachael Dorrough,Angela Rachael Dorrough,Anna Dreber,Michelle Dugas,Elizabeth W. Dunn,Kayleigh E Easey,Sylvia Eboigbe,Casey Eggleston,Jo Embley,Sacha Epskamp,Timothy M. Errington,Vivien Estel,Frank J. Farach,Jenelle Feather,Anna Fedor,Belén Fernández-Castilla,Susann Fiedler,James G. Field,Stanka A. Fitneva,Taru Flagan,Amanda L. Forest,Eskil Forsell,Joshua D. Foster,Michael C. Frank,Rebecca S. Frazier,Heather M. Fuchs,Philip A. Gable,Jeff Galak,Elisa Maria Galliani,Anup Gampa,Sara García,Douglas Gazarian,Elizabeth Gilbert,Roger Giner-Sorolla,Andreas Glöckner,Andreas Glöckner,Lars Goellner,Jin X. Goh,Rebecca M. Goldberg,Patrick T. Goodbourn,Shauna Gordon-McKeon,Bryan Gorges,Jessie Gorges,Justin Goss,Jesse Graham,James A. Grange,Jeremy R. Gray,Chris H.J. Hartgerink,Joshua K. Hartshorne,Fred Hasselman,Timothy Hayes,Emma Heikensten,Felix Henninger,Felix Henninger,John Hodsoll,Taylor Holubar,Gea Hoogendoorn,Denise J. Humphries,Cathy On-Ying Hung,Nathali Immelman,Vanessa C. Irsik,Georg Jahn,Frank Jäkel,Marc Jekel,Magnus Johannesson,Larissa Gabrielle Johnson,David J. Johnson,Kate M. Johnson,William J. Johnston,Kai J. Jonas,Jennifer A. Joy-Gaba,Heather Barry Kappes,Kim Kelso,Mallory C. Kidwell,Seung K. Kim,Matthew W. Kirkhart,Bennett Kleinberg,Bennett Kleinberg,Goran Knežević,Franziska Maria Kolorz,Jolanda J. Kossakowski,Robert Krause,Job Krijnen,Tim Kuhlmann,Yoram K. Kunkels,Megan M. Kyc,Calvin K. Lai,Aamir Laique,Daniel Lakens,Kristin A. Lane,Bethany Lassetter,Ljiljana B. Lazarević,Etienne P. Le Bel,Key Jung Lee,Minha Lee,Kristi M. Lemm,Carmel A. Levitan,Melissa Lewis,Lin Lin,Stephanie C. Lin,Matthias Lippold,Darren Loureiro,Ilse Luteijn,Sean P. Mackinnon,Heather N. Mainard,Denise C. Marigold,Daniel P. Martin,Tylar Martinez,E. J. Masicampo,Joshua J. Matacotta,Maya B. Mathur,Michael May,Michael May,Nicole Mechin,Pranjal H. Mehta,Johannes M. Meixner,Johannes M. Meixner,Alissa Melinger,Jeremy K. Miller,Mallorie Miller,Katherine Moore,Katherine Moore,Marcus Möschl,Matt Motyl,Stephanie M. Müller,Marcus R. Munafò,Koen Ilja Neijenhuijs,Taylor Nervi,Gandalf Nicolas,Gustav Nilsonne,Gustav Nilsonne,Brian A. Nosek,Brian A. Nosek,Michèle B. Nuijten,Catherine Olsson,Catherine Olsson,Colleen Osborne,Lutz Ostkamp,Misha Pavel,Ian S. Penton-Voak,Olivia Perna,Cyril Pernet,Marco Perugini,R. Nathan Pipitone,Michael C. Pitts,Franziska Plessow,Franziska Plessow,Jason M. Prenoveau,Rima-Maria Rahal,Rima-Maria Rahal,Kate A. Ratliff,David Reinhard,Frank Renkewitz,Ashley A. Ricker,Anastasia E. Rigney,Andrew M Rivers,Mark A. Roebke,Abraham M. Rutchick,Robert S. Ryan,Onur Sahin,Anondah R. Saide,Gillian M. Sandstrom,David Santos,David Santos,Rebecca Saxe,René Schlegelmilch,René Schlegelmilch,Kathleen Schmidt,Sabine Scholz,Larissa Seibel,Dylan Selterman,Samuel Shaki,William B. Simpson,H. Colleen Sinclair,Jeanine L. M. Skorinko,Agnieszka Slowik,Joel S. Snyder,Courtney K. Soderberg,Carina Sonnleitner,Nick Spencer,Jeffrey R. Spies,Sara Steegen,Stefan Stieger,Nina Strohminger,Gavin Brent Sullivan,Thomas Talhelm,Megan Tapia,Anniek M. te Dorsthorst,Manuela Thomae,Manuela Thomae,Sarah L. Thomas,Pia Tio,Frits Traets,Steve N.H. Tsang,Francis Tuerlinckx,Paul J. Turchan,Milan Valášek,Anna E. Van't Veer,Robbie C. M. van Aert,Marcel A.L.M. van Assen,Riet van Bork,Mathijs Van De Ven,Don van den Bergh,Marije van der Hulst,Roel van Dooren,Johnny van Doorn,Daan R. van Renswoude,Hedderik van Rijn,Wolf Vanpaemel,Alejandro Vásquez Echeverría,Melissa Vazquez,Natalia Vélez,Marieke Vermue,Mark Verschoor,Michelangelo Vianello,Martin Voracek,Gina Vuu,Eric-Jan Wagenmakers,Joanneke Weerdmeester,Ashlee Welsh,Erin C. Westgate,Joeri Wissink,Michael J. Wood,Andy T. Woods,Andy T. Woods,Emily M. Wright,Sining Wu,Marcel Zeelenberg,Kellylynn Zuni +290 more