Showing papers on "Ocean current published in 2014"

Oceanic mass transport by mesoscale eddies

Abstract: Oceanic transports of heat, salt, fresh water, dissolved CO2, and other tracers regulate global climate change and the distribution of natural marine resources. The time-mean ocean circulation transports fluid as a conveyor belt, but fluid parcels can also be trapped and transported discretely by migrating mesoscale eddies. By combining available satellite altimetry and Argo profiling float data, we showed that the eddy-induced zonal mass transport can reach a total meridionally integrated value of up to 30 to 40 sverdrups (Sv) (1 Sv = 10(6) cubic meters per second), and it occurs mainly in subtropical regions, where the background flows are weak. This transport is comparable in magnitude to that of the large-scale wind- and thermohaline-driven circulation.

Distribution of surface plastic debris in the eastern Pacific Ocean from an 11-year data set.

Abstract: We present an extensive survey of floating plastic debris in the eastern North and South Pacific Oceans from more than 2500 plankton net tows conducted between 2001 and 2012. From these data we defined an accumulation zone (25 to 41°N, 130 to 180°W) in the North Pacific subtropical gyre that closely corresponds to centers of accumulation resulting from the convergence of ocean surface currents predicted by several oceanographic numerical models. Maximum plastic concentrations from individual surface net tows exceeded 106 pieces km–2, with concentrations decreasing with increasing distance from the predicted center of accumulation. Outside the North Pacific subtropical gyre the median plastic concentration was 0 pieces km–2. We were unable to detect a robust temporal trend in the data set, perhaps because of confounded spatial and temporal variability. Large spatiotemporal variability in plastic concentration causes order of magnitude differences in summary statistics calculated over short time periods or ...

Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

Abstract: We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21st century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with model- and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution. A moderate and a warmer climate change scenario are considered, yielding a global mean sea-level rise of 0.54 ±0.19 m and 0.71 ±0.28 m respectively (mean ±1σ). Regionally however, changes reach up to 30 % higher in coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and up to 20 % higher in the subtropical and equatorial regions, confirming patterns found in previous studies. Only 50 % of the global mean value is projected for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and off the western Antarctic coast. Uncertainty estimates for each component demonstrate that the land ice contribution dominates the total uncertainty.

Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming

Abstract: Extreme positive-Indian-Ocean-dipole events cause devastating floods in eastern tropical Africa and severe droughts in Asia; increasing greenhouse gas emissions will make these dipole events about three times more frequent in the twenty-first century. Countries in the southern tropical Indian Ocean region are prone to extensive flooding and droughts in years when the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) climate cycle is in an extreme positive phase. In these bad years, such as 1961, 1994 and 1997, warm waters appear in the western part of the basin and precipitation increases, whereas in the east cooler waters predominate and precipitation decreases. Here Wenju Cai et al. assess climate model projections in a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions and find that the frequency of extreme positive IODs is likely to increase from one event approximately every 17.3 years through the twentieth century to one event every 6.3 years during the twenty-first century. The Indian Ocean dipole is a prominent mode of coupled ocean–atmosphere variability1,2,3,4, affecting the lives of millions of people in Indian Ocean rim countries5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15. In its positive phase, sea surface temperatures are lower than normal off the Sumatra–Java coast, but higher in the western tropical Indian Ocean. During the extreme positive-IOD (pIOD) events of 1961, 1994 and 1997, the eastern cooling strengthened and extended westward along the equatorial Indian Ocean through strong reversal of both the mean westerly winds and the associated eastward-flowing upper ocean currents1,2. This created anomalously dry conditions from the eastern to the central Indian Ocean along the Equator and atmospheric convergence farther west, leading to catastrophic floods in eastern tropical African countries13,14 but devastating droughts in eastern Indian Ocean rim countries8,9,10,16,17. Despite these serious consequences, the response of pIOD events to greenhouse warming is unknown. Here, using an ensemble of climate models forced by a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we project that the frequency of extreme pIOD events will increase by almost a factor of three, from one event every 17.3 years over the twentieth century to one event every 6.3 years over the twenty-first century. We find that a mean state change—with weakening of both equatorial westerly winds and eastward oceanic currents in association with a faster warming in the western than the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean—facilitates more frequent occurrences of wind and oceanic current reversal. This leads to more frequent extreme pIOD events, suggesting an increasing frequency of extreme climate and weather events in regions affected by the pIOD.

Beyond GOCE for the ocean circulation estimate: Synergetic use of altimetry, gravimetry, and in situ data provides new insight into geostrophic and Ekman currents

Abstract: Accurate estimate of ocean surface currents is both a challenging issue and a growing end-users requirement In this paper ocean currents are calculated at two levels (surface and 15 m depth) as the sum of the geostrophic and Ekman components First, a new, global, 14° Mean Dynamic Topography, called the CNES-CLS13 MDT, has been calculated and is now available for use by the oceanographic community By exploiting information from surface drifters and Argo floats, the new MDT resolves spatial scales beyond the resolution permitted by the recent Gravity and Ocean Circulation Experiment (GOCE) geoid models (125 km) Associated mean geostrophic speeds in strong currents are increased by 200% on average compared to GOCE-based mean currents In addition, for the first time, a two-level, monthly, empirical Ekman model that samples a spiral-like behavior is estimated We show that combining both pieces of information leads to improved ocean currents compared to other existing observed products

Submesoscale dispersion in the vicinity of the Deepwater Horizon spill.

Abstract: Reliable forecasts for the dispersion of oceanic contamination are important for coastal ecosystems, society, and the economy as evidenced by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 and the Fukushima nuclear plant incident in the Pacific Ocean in 2011. Accurate prediction of pollutant pathways and concentrations at the ocean surface requires understanding ocean dynamics over a broad range of spatial scales. Fundamental questions concerning the structure of the velocity field at the submesoscales (100 m to tens of kilometers, hours to days) remain unresolved due to a lack of synoptic measurements at these scales. Using high-frequency position data provided by the near-simultaneous release of hundreds of accurately tracked surface drifters, we study the structure of submesoscale surface velocity fluctuations in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Observed two-point statistics confirm the accuracy of classic turbulence scaling laws at 200-m to 50-km scales and clearly indicate that dispersion at the submesoscales is local, driven predominantly by energetic submesoscale fluctuations. The results demonstrate the feasibility and utility of deploying large clusters of drifting instruments to provide synoptic observations of spatial variability of the ocean surface velocity field. Our findings allow quantification of the submesoscale-driven dispersion missing in current operational circulation models and satellite altimeter-derived velocity fields.

Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years

Abstract: A simulation of the evolution of El Nino Southern Oscillation in the past 21,000 years in a state-of-the-art climate model shows the complex response mechanisms of El Nino to external climate forcings and poses further challenges to our understanding and projection of El Nino in the future. Palaeoclimate evidence has suggested that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — the most important driver of interannual climate variability — has swung from periods of intense variability to relative quiescence. Zhengyu Liu and colleagues use a series of climate simulations to show that since the Last Glacial Maximum, consistent with palaeoclimate data interpretations, orbital changes have tended to strengthen the ENSO. Variations in ocean circulation, increasing CO2, and retreating ice sheets all influenced ENSO, but at different times and sometimes in offsetting directions. For example, increasing CO2 tended to weaken ENSO, but this influence was opposed by ENSO-enhancing effects from retreating ice. The simulations demonstrate that the ENSO state at any one time reflects the net impact of a series of different climate forcings. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is Earth’s dominant source of interannual climate variability, but its response to global warming remains highly uncertain1. To improve our understanding of ENSO’s sensitivity to external climate forcing, it is paramount to determine its past behaviour by using palaeoclimate data and model simulations. Palaeoclimate records show that ENSO has varied considerably since the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago)2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9, and some data sets suggest a gradual intensification of ENSO over the past ∼6,000 years2,5,7,8. Previous attempts to simulate the transient evolution of ENSO have relied on simplified models10 or snapshot11,12,13 experiments. Here we analyse a series of transient Coupled General Circulation Model simulations forced by changes in greenhouse gasses, orbital forcing, the meltwater discharge and the ice-sheet history throughout the past 21,000 years. Consistent with most palaeo-ENSO reconstructions, our model simulates an orbitally induced strengthening of ENSO during the Holocene epoch, which is caused by increasing positive ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. During the early deglaciation, ENSO characteristics change drastically in response to meltwater discharges and the resulting changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and equatorial annual cycle. Increasing deglacial atmospheric CO2 concentrations tend to weaken ENSO, whereas retreating glacial ice sheets intensify ENSO. The complex evolution of forcings and ENSO feedbacks and the uncertainties in the reconstruction further highlight the challenge and opportunity for constraining future ENSO responses.

The oceanic anthropogenic CO2 sink: Storage, air-sea fluxes, and transports over the industrial era

Abstract: This study presents a new estimate of the oceanic anthropogenic CO2(Cant) sink over the industrial era (1780 to present), from assimilation of potential temperature, salinity, radiocarbon, and CFC-11 observations in a global steady state ocean circulation inverse model (OCIM). This study differs from previous data-based estimates of the oceanic Cant sink in that dynamical constraints on ocean circulation are accounted for, and the ocean circulation is explicitly modeled, allowing the calculation of oceanic Cant storage, air-sea fluxes, and transports in a consistent manner. The resulting uncertainty of the OCIM-estimated Cant uptake, transport, and storage is significantly smaller than the comparable uncertainty from purely data-based or model-based estimates. The OCIM-estimated oceanic Cant storage is 160–166 PgC in 2012, and the oceanic Cant uptake rate averaged over the period 2000–2010 is 2.6 PgC yr−1 or about 30% of current anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This result implies a residual (primarily terrestrial) Cant sink of about 1.6 PgC yr−1 for the same period. The Southern Ocean is the primary conduit for Cant entering the ocean, taking up about 1.1 PgC yr−1 in 2012, which represents about 40% of the contemporary oceanic Cant uptake. It is suggested that the most significant source of remaining uncertainty in the oceanic Cant sink is due to potential variability in the ocean circulation over the industrial era.

Arctic Ocean basin liquid freshwater storage trend 1992–2012

Abstract: Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean plays an important role in the regional ocean circulation, sea ice, and global climate. From salinity observed by a variety of platforms, we are able, for the first time, to estimate a statistically reliable liquid freshwater trend from monthly gridded fields over all upper Arctic Ocean basins. From 1992 to 2012 this trend was 600±300 km3 yr−1. A numerical model agrees very well with the observed freshwater changes. A decrease in salinity made up about two thirds of the freshwater trend and a thickening of the upper layer up to one third. The Arctic Ocean Oscillation index, a measure for the regional wind stress curl, correlated well with our freshwater time series. No clear relation to Arctic Oscillation or Arctic Dipole indices could be found. Following other observational studies, an increased Bering Strait freshwater import to the Arctic Ocean, a decreased Davis Strait export, and enhanced net sea ice melt could have played an important role in the freshwater trend we observed.

The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing.

Abstract: In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around ‘climate response functions’ (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to ‘step’ changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate.

Atlantic overturning in decline

Abstract: Global ocean circulation is an important factor in climate variability and change. In particular, changes in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) have been implicated in ancient climate events, as well as in recent climate anomalies such as the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid-1990s. A series of moored current meters and temperature sensors deployed in the Atlantic at 26° N known as the RAPID-MOCHA array has been used to monitor the strength of meridional overturning since 2004. The data indicate a decline in this strength over the period 2004–20123. Here, using additional observations and climate model simulations we suggest that this measured decline is not merely a short-term fluctuation, but is part of a substantial reduction in meridional overturning occurring on a decadal timescale.

The Origins of Late-Twentieth-Century Variations in the Large-Scale North Atlantic Circulation

Abstract: Surface forcing perturbation experiments are examined to identify the key forcing elements associated with late-twentieth-century interannual-to-decadal Atlantic circulation variability as simulated in an ocean–sea ice hindcast configuration of the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). Buoyancy forcing accounts for most of the decadal variability in both the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the subpolar gyre circulation, and the key drivers of these basin-scale circulation changes are found to be the turbulent buoyancy fluxes: evaporation as well as the latent and sensible heat fluxes. These three fluxes account for almost all of the decadal AMOC variability in the North Atlantic, even when applied only over the Labrador Sea region. Year-to-year changes in surface momentum forcing explain most of the interannual AMOC variability at all latitudes as well as most of the decadal variability south of the equator. The observed strengthening of Southern Ocean westerly wi...

Thermohaline circulation crisis and impacts during the mid-Pleistocene transition.

Abstract: The mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) marked a fundamental change in glacial-interglacial periodicity, when it increased from ~41-thousand-year to 100-thousand-year cycles and developed higher-amplitude climate variability without substantial changes in the Milankovitch forcing. Here, we document, by using Nd isotopes, a major disruption of the ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) system during the MPT between marine isotope stages (MISs) 25 and 21 at ~950 to 860 thousand years ago, which effectively marks the first 100-thousand-year cycle, including an exceptional weakening through a critical interglacial (MIS 23) at ~900 thousand years ago. Its recovery into the post-MPT 100-thousand-year world is characterized by continued weak glacial THC. The MPT ocean circulation crisis facilitated the coeval drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and high-latitude ice sheet growth, generating the conditions that stabilized 100-thousand-year cycles.

Deep water formation in the North Pacific and deglacial CO2 rise

Abstract: Deep water formation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean is widely thought to influence deglacial CO_2 rise and climate change; here we suggest that deep water formation in the North Pacific may also play an important role. We present paired radiocarbon and boron isotope data from foraminifera from sediment core MD02-2489 at 3640 m in the North East Pacific. These show a pronounced excursion during Heinrich Stadial 1, with benthic-planktic radiocarbon offsets dropping to ~350 years, accompanied by a decrease in benthic δ^(11)B. We suggest that this is driven by the onset of deep convection in the North Pacific, which mixes young shallow waters to depth, old deep waters to the surface, and low-pH water from intermediate depths into the deep ocean. This deep water formation event was likely driven by an increase in surface salinity, due to subdued atmospheric/monsoonal freshwater flux during Heinrich Stadial 1. The ability of North Pacific Deep Water (NPDW) formation to explain the excursions seen in our data is demonstrated in a series of experiments with an intermediate complexity Earth system model. These experiments also show that breakdown of stratification in the North Pacific leads to a rapid ~30 ppm increase in atmospheric CO_2, along with decreases in atmospheric δ^(13)C and Δ^(14)C, consistent with observations of the early deglaciation. Our inference of deep water formation is based mainly on results from a single sediment core, and our boron isotope data are unavoidably sparse in the key HS1 interval, so this hypothesis merits further testing. However, we note that there is independent support for breakdown of stratification in shallower waters during this period, including a minimum in δ^(15)N, younging in intermediate water ^(14)C, and regional warming. We also re-evaluate deglacial changes in North Pacific productivity and carbonate preservation in light of our new data and suggest that the regional pulse of export production observed during the Bolling-Allerod is promoted by relatively stratified conditions, with increased light availability and a shallow, potent nutricline. Overall, our work highlights the potential of NPDW formation to play a significant and hitherto unrealized role in deglacial climate change and CO_2 rise.

On the developments of spectral wave models: numerics and parameterizations for the coastal ocean

Abstract: The development of numerical wave models for coastal applications, including coupling with ocean circulation models, has spurred an ongoing effort on theoretical foundations, numerical techniques, and physical parameterizations. Some important aspects of this effort are reviewed here, and results are shown in the case of the French Atlantic and Channel coast using version 4.18 of the WAVEWATCH III R model. Compared to previous results, the model errors have been strongly reduced thanks to, among other things, the introduction of currents, coastal reflection, and bottom sediment types. This last item is described here for the first time, allowing unprecedented accuracy at some sites along the French Atlantic Coast. The adequate resolution, necessary to represent strong gradients in tidal currents, was made possible by the efficiency brought by unstructured grids. A further increase in resolution, necessary to resolve surf zones and still cover vast regions,will require further developments in numerical methods.

Pacific‐to‐Indian Ocean connectivity: Tasman leakage, Indonesian Throughflow, and the role of ENSO

Abstract: The upper ocean circulation of the Pacific and Indian Oceans is connected through both the Indonesian Throughflow north of Australia and the Tasman leakage around its south. The relative importance of these two pathways is examined using virtual Lagrangian particles in a high-resolution nested ocean model. The unprecedented combination of a long integration time within an eddy-permitting ocean model simulation allows the first assessment of the interannual variability of these pathways in a realistic setting. The mean Indonesian Throughflow, as diagnosed by the particles, is 14.3 Sv, considerably higher than the diagnosed average Tasman leakage of 4.2 Sv. The time series of Indonesian Throughflow agrees well with the Eulerian transport through the major Indonesian Passages, validating the Lagrangian approach using transport-tagged particles. While the Indonesian Throughflow is mainly associated with upper ocean pathways, the Tasman leakage is concentrated in the 400–900 m depth range at subtropical latitudes. Over the effective period considered (1968–1994), no apparent relationship is found between the Tasman leakage and Indonesian Throughflow. However, the Indonesian Throughflow transport correlates with ENSO. During strong La Ninas, more water of Southern Hemisphere origin flows through Makassar, Moluccas, Ombai, and Timor Straits, but less through Moluccas Strait. In general, each strait responds differently to ENSO, highlighting the complex nature of the ENSO-ITF interaction.

Radiocarbon evidence for alternating northern and southern sources of ventilation of the deep Atlantic carbon pool during the last deglaciation

Abstract: Recent theories for glacial–interglacial climate transitions call on millennial climate perturbations that purged the deep sea of sequestered carbon dioxide via a “bipolar ventilation seesaw.” However, the viability of this hypothesis has been contested, and robust evidence in its support is lacking. Here we present a record of North Atlantic deep-water radiocarbon ventilation, which we compare with similar data from the Southern Ocean. A striking coherence in ventilation changes is found, with extremely high ventilation ages prevailing across the deep Atlantic during the last glacial period. The data also reveal two reversals in the ventilation gradient between the deep North Atlantic and Southern Ocean during Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas. These coincided with periods of sustained atmospheric CO2 rise and appear to have been driven by enhanced ocean–atmosphere exchange, primarily in the Southern Ocean. These results confirm the operation of a bipolar ventilation seesaw during deglaciation and underline the contribution of abrupt regional climate anomalies to longer-term global climate transitions.

A Global Analysis of Sverdrup Balance Using Absolute Geostrophic Velocities from Argo

Abstract: Using observations from the Argo array of profiling floats, the large-scale circulation of the upper 2000 decibars (db) of the global ocean is computed for the period from December 2004 to November 2010. The geostrophic velocity relative to a reference level of 900db is estimated from temperature and salinity profiles, and the absolute geostrophic velocity at the reference level is estimated from the trajectory data provided by the floats. Combining the two gives the absolute geostrophic velocity on 29 pressure surfaces spanning the upper 2000db of the global ocean. These velocities, together with satellite observations of wind stress, are thenusedtoevaluateSverdrupbalance,thesimplecanonicaltheoryrelatingmeridionalgeostrophictransport to wind forcing. Observed transports agree well with predictions based on the wind field over large areas, primarily in the tropics and subtropics. Elsewhere, especially at higher latitudes and in boundary regions, Sverdrup balance does not accurately describe meridional geostrophic transports, possibly due to the increased importance of the barotropic flow, nonlinear dynamics, and topographic influence. Thus, while it provides an effective framework for understanding the zero-order wind-driven circulation in much of the global ocean, Sverdrup balance should not be regarded as axiomatic.

Seasonal variation of the M2 tide

Abstract: The seasonal cycle of the main lunar tidal constituent M 2 is studied globally by an analysis of a high-resolution ocean circulation and tide model (STORMTIDE) simulation, of 19 years of satellite altimeter data, and of multiyear tide-gauge records. The barotropic seasonal tidal variability is dominant in coastal and polar regions with relative changes of the tidal amplitude of 5–10 %. A comparison with the observations shows that the ocean circulation and tide model captures the seasonal pattern of the M 2 tide reasonably well. There are two main processes leading to the seasonal variability in the barotropic tide: First, seasonal changes in stratification on the continental shelf affect the vertical profile of eddy viscosity and, in turn, the vertical current profile. Second, the frictional effect between sea-ice and the surface ocean layer leads to seasonally varying tidal transport. We estimate from the model simulation that the M 2 tidal energy dissipation at the sea surface varies seasonally in the Arctic (ocean regions north of 60°N) between 2 and 34 GW, whereas in the Southern Ocean, it varies between 0.5 and 2 GW. The M 2 internal tide is mainly affected by stratification, and the induced modified phase speed of the internal waves leads to amplitude differences in the surface tide signal of 0.005–0.0150 m. The seasonal signals of the M 2 surface tide are large compared to the accuracy demands of satellite altimetry and gravity observations and emphasize the importance to consider seasonal tidal variability in the correction processes of satellite data.

Long-term climate change

Abstract: The surface of the Earth is a three-dimensional system that is dominated by water that can exist in three phases: solid, liquid, and vapor. At any point in the evolution of the Earth’s climate, randomly varying factors such as winds, ocean currents, air masses, cloud formation, volcanic eruption, the spinning of the Earth, and other factors produce daily, monthly, and yearly fluctuations in the weather in various regions. If we average out these fluctuations over the whole Earth over a period of time, we can attempt to attribute a climate to the Earth over that time period. There is no universally accepted procedure for doing this.

Evaluation of altimetry-derived surface current products using Lagrangian drifter trajectories in the eastern Gulf of Mexico

Abstract: Lagrangian particle trajectory models based on several altimetry-derived surface current products are used to hindcast the drifter trajectories observed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during May to August 2010 (the Deepwater Horizon oil spill incident). The performances of the trajectory models are gauged in terms of Lagrangian separation distances (d) and a nondimensional skill score (s), respectively. A series of numerical experiments show that these altimetry-based trajectory models have about the same performance, with a certain improvement by adding surface wind Ekman components, especially over the shelf region. However, their hindcast skills are slightly better than those of the data assimilative numerical model output. After 3 days' simulation the altimetry-based trajectory models have mean d values of 75–83 and 34–42 km (s values of 0.49–0.51 and 0.35–0.43) in the Gulf of Mexico deep water area and on the West Florida Continental Shelf, respectively. These satellite altimetry data products are useful for providing essential information on ocean surface currents of use in water property transports, offshore oil and gas operations, hazardous spill mitigation, search and rescue, etc.

Decoupling of the Agulhas Leakage from the Agulhas Current

Abstract: The relationship between the Agulhas Current and the Agulhas leakage is not well understood. Here, this is investigated using two basin-scale and two global ocean models, of incrementally increasing resolution. The response of the Agulhas Current is evaluated under a series of sensitivity experiments, in which idealised anomalies, designed to geometrically modulate zonal trade wind stress, are applied across the Indian Ocean basin. The imposed wind stress changes exceed ±2 standard deviations from the annual mean trade winds and, in the case of intensification, are partially representative of recently observed trends. The Agulhas leakage is quantified using complimentary techniques based on Lagrangian virtual floats and Eulerian passive tracer flux. As resolution increases, model behavior converges and the sensitivity of the leakage to Agulhas Current transport anomalies is reduced. In the two eddy-resolving configurations tested, the leakage is insensitive to changes in Agulhas Current transport at 32°S, though substantial eddy kinetic energy anomalies are evident. Consistent with observations, the position of the retroflection remains stable. The decoupling of Agulhas Current variability from the Agulhas leakage suggests that, while correlations between the two may exist, they may not have a clear dynamical basis. It is suggested that present and future Agulhas leakage proxies be considered in the context of potentially transient forcing regimes.

Decadal Evolution of Ocean Thermal Anomalies in the North Atlantic: The Effects of Ekman, Overturning, and Horizontal Transport

Abstract: Basin-scale thermal anomalies in the North Atlantic, extending to depths of 1‐2km, are more pronounced thanthebackgroundwarmingover thelast 60years. A dynamicalanalysis basedonreanalyses ofhistorical data from1965to2000suggeststhat thesethermalanomaliesare formedbyocean heat convergences,augmented by the poorly known air‐sea fluxes. The heat convergence is separated into contributions from the horizontal circulation and the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), the latter further separated into Ekman and MOC transport minus Ekman transport (MOC-Ekman) cells. The subtropical thermal anomalies are mainly controlled by wind-induced changes in the Ekman heat convergence, while the subpolar thermal anomalies are controlled by the MOC-Ekman heat convergence; the horizontal heat convergence is generally weaker, only becoming significant within the subpolar gyre. These thermal anomalies often have an opposing sign between thesubtropicalandsubpolargyres,associatedwithopposingchangesinthemeridionalvolumetransportdriving the Ekman and MOC-Ekman heat convergences. These changes in gyre-scale convergences in heat transport are probably induced by the winds, as they correlate with the zonal wind stress at gyre boundaries.

Uncertainties in the Modelled CO2 Threshold for Antarctic Glaciation

Abstract: . A frequently cited atmospheric CO2 threshold for the onset of Antarctic glaciation of ~780 ppmv is based on the study of DeConto and Pollard (2003) using an ice sheet model and the GENESIS climate model. Proxy records suggest that atmospheric CO2 concentrations passed through this threshold across the Eocene–Oligocene transition ~34 Ma. However, atmospheric CO2 concentrations may have been close to this threshold earlier than this transition, which is used by some to suggest the possibility of Antarctic ice sheets during the Eocene. Here we investigate the climate model dependency of the threshold for Antarctic glaciation by performing offline ice sheet model simulations using the climate from 7 different climate models with Eocene boundary conditions (HadCM3L, CCSM3, CESM1.0, GENESIS, FAMOUS, ECHAM5 and GISS_ER). These climate simulations are sourced from a number of independent studies, and as such the boundary conditions, which are poorly constrained during the Eocene, are not identical between simulations. The results of this study suggest that the atmospheric CO2 threshold for Antarctic glaciation is highly dependent on the climate model used and the climate model configuration. A large discrepancy between the climate model and ice sheet model grids for some simulations leads to a strong sensitivity to the lapse rate parameter.

The Impact of Finite-Amplitude Bottom Topography on Internal Wave Generation in the Southern Ocean

Abstract: Direct observations in the Southern Ocean report enhanced internal wave activity and turbulence in akilometer-thicklayeraboveroughbottomtopographycollocatedwiththedeep-reachingfrontsoftheAntarctic Circumpolar Current. Linear theory, corrected for finite-amplitude topography based on idealized, twodimensional numerical simulations, has been recently used to estimate the global distribution of internal wave generation by oceanic currents and eddies. The global estimate shows that the topographic wave generation is a significant sink of energy for geostrophic flows and a source of energy for turbulent mixing in the deep ocean. However, comparison with recent observations from the Diapycnal and Isopycnal Mixing Experiment in the Southern Ocean shows that the linear theory predictions and idealized two-dimensional simulations grossly overestimate the observed levelsof turbulent energy dissipation. Thisstudypresentstwo- and three-dimensional, realistic topography simulations of internal lee-wave generation from a steady flow interacting with topography with parameters typical of Drake Passage. The results demonstrate that internal wave generation at threedimensional, finite bottom topography is reduced compared to the two-dimensional case. The reduction is primarilyassociatedwithfinite-amplitudebottomtopographyeffectsthatsuppressverticalmotionsandthusreduce the amplitude of the internal waves radiated from topography. The implication of these results for the global leewave generation is discussed.

Enhanced 20th-century heat transfer to the Arctic simulated in the context of climate variations over the last millennium

Abstract: . Oceanic heat transport variations, carried by the northward-flowing Atlantic Water, strongly influence Arctic sea-ice distribution, ocean–atmosphere exchanges, and pan-Arctic temperatures. Palaeoceanographic reconstructions from marine sediments near Fram Strait have documented a dramatic increase in Atlantic Water temperatures over the 20th century, unprecedented in the last millennium. Here we present results from Earth system model simulations that reproduce and explain the reconstructed exceptional Atlantic Water warming in Fram Strait in the 20th century in the context of natural variability during the last millennium. The associated increase in ocean heat transfer to the Arctic can be traced back to changes in the ocean circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic. An interplay between a weakening overturning circulation and a strengthening subpolar gyre as a consequence of 20th-century global warming is identified as the driving mechanism for the pronounced warming along the Atlantic Water path toward the Arctic. Simulations covering the late Holocene provide a reference frame that allows us to conclude that the changes during the last century are unprecedented in the last 1150 years and that they cannot be explained by internal variability or natural forcing alone.

The Ocean General Circulation near 1000-m Depth

Abstract: The mean ocean circulation near 1000-m depth is estimated with 100-km resolution from the Argo float displacements collected before 1 January 2010. After a thorough validation, the 400 000 or so displacements found in the 950–1150 dbar layer and with parking times between 4 and 17 days allow the currents to be mapped at intermediate depths with unprecedented details. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is the most prominent feature, but western boundary currents (and their recirculations) and alternating zonal jets in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific are also well defined. Eddy kinetic energy (EKE) gives the mesoscale variability (on the order of 10 cm2 s−2 in the interior), which is compared to the surface geostrophic altimetric EKE showing e-folding depths greater than 700 m in the ACC and northern subpolar regions. Assuming planetary geostrophy, the geopotential height of the 1000-dbar isobar is estimated to obtain an absolute and deep reference level worldwide. This is done by solving num...

Bipolar Atlantic deepwater circulation in the middle-late Eocene: Effects of Southern Ocean gateway openings

Abstract: We present evidence for Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC)-like effects on Atlantic deepwater circulation beginning in the late-middle Eocene. Modern ocean circulation is characterized by a thermal differentiation between Southern Ocean and North Atlantic deepwater formation regions. In order to better constrain the timing and nature of the initial thermal differentiation between Northern Component Water (NCW) and Southern Component Water (SCW), we analyze benthic foraminiferal stable isotope (δ18Obf and δ13Cbf) records from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1053 (upper deep water, western North Atlantic). Our data, compared with published records and interpreted in the context of ocean circulation models, indicate that progressive opening of Southern Ocean gateways and initiation of a circum-Antarctic current caused a transition to a modern-like deep ocean circulation characterized by thermal differentiation between SCW and NCW beginning ~38.5 Ma, in the initial stages of Drake Passage opening. In addition, the relatively low δ18Obf values recorded at Site 1053 show that the cooling trend of the middle-late Eocene was not global, because it was not recorded in the North Atlantic. The timing of thermal differentiation shows that NCW contributed to ocean circulation by the late-middle Eocene, ~1–4 Myr earlier than previously thought. We propose that early NCW originated in the Labrador Sea, based on tectonic reconstructions and changes in foraminiferal assemblages in this basin. Finally, we link further development of meridional isotopic gradients in the Atlantic and Pacific in the late Eocene with the Tasman Gateway deepening (~34 Ma) and the consequent development of a circumpolar proto-ACC.