Showing papers on "Thunderstorm published in 2017"

Photonuclear reactions triggered by lightning discharge

Abstract: Ground-based observations during a thunderstorm provide conclusive evidence of positrons being produced after lightning, confirming that lightning can trigger photonuclear reactions. Lightning, particularly the very energetic γ-ray flashes, can theoretically generate radioactive isotopes through the interaction of relativistic electrons with atoms and molecules in the air. Some weak observational evidence for this was recently claimed. Teruaki Enoto and collaborators report observations of a coastal thunderstorm in Japan on 6 February 2017, in which they see a clear signature of positron annihilation associated with γ-ray flashes, combined with γ-rays arising in the de-excitation of nuclei excited by neutron capture. They conclude that the positrons arise from the decay of neutrons after the lightning. Lightning and thunderclouds are natural particle accelerators1. Avalanches of relativistic runaway electrons, which develop in electric fields within thunderclouds2,3, emit bremsstrahlung γ-rays. These γ-rays have been detected by ground-based observatories4,5,6,7,8,9, by airborne detectors10 and as terrestrial γ-ray flashes from space10,11,12,13,14. The energy of the γ-rays is sufficiently high that they can trigger atmospheric photonuclear reactions10,15,16,17,18,19 that produce neutrons and eventually positrons via β+ decay of the unstable radioactive isotopes, most notably 13N, which is generated via 14N + γ → 13N + n, where γ denotes a photon and n a neutron. However, this reaction has hitherto not been observed conclusively, despite increasing observational evidence of neutrons7,20,21 and positrons10,22 that are presumably derived from such reactions. Here we report ground-based observations of neutron and positron signals after lightning. During a thunderstorm on 6 February 2017 in Japan, a γ-ray flash with a duration of less than one millisecond was detected at our monitoring sites 0.5–1.7 kilometres away from the lightning. The subsequent γ-ray afterglow subsided quickly, with an exponential decay constant of 40–60 milliseconds, and was followed by prolonged line emission at about 0.511 megaelectronvolts, which lasted for a minute. The observed decay timescale and spectral cutoff at about 10 megaelectronvolts of the γ-ray afterglow are well explained by de-excitation γ-rays from nuclei excited by neutron capture. The centre energy of the prolonged line emission corresponds to electron–positron annihilation, providing conclusive evidence of positrons being produced after the lightning.

Storm-Based Probabilistic Hail Forecasting with Machine Learning Applied to Convection-Allowing Ensembles

Abstract: Forecasting severe hail accurately requires predicting how well atmospheric conditions support the development of thunderstorms, the growth of large hail, and the minimal loss of hail mass to melting before reaching the surface. Existing hail forecasting techniques incorporate information about these processes from proximity soundings and numerical weather prediction models, but they make many simplifying assumptions, are sensitive to differences in numerical model configuration, and are often not calibrated to observations. In this paper a storm-based probabilistic machine learning hail forecasting method is developed to overcome the deficiencies of existing methods. An object identification and tracking algorithm locates potential hailstorms in convection-allowing model output and gridded radar data. Forecast storms are matched with observed storms to determine hail occurrence and the parameters of the radar-estimated hail size distribution. The database of forecast storms contains information a...

Sounding-Derived Parameters Associated with Convective Hazards in Europe

Abstract: Observed proximity soundings from Europe are used to highlight how well environmental parameters discriminate different kind of severe thunderstorm hazards. In addition, the skill of parameters in predicting lightning and waterspouts is also tested. The research area concentrates on central and western European countries and the years 2009–15. In total, 45 677 soundings are analyzed including 169 associated with extremely severe thunderstorms, 1754 with severe thunderstorms, 8361 with nonsevere thunderstorms, and 35 393 cases with nonzero convective available potential energy (CAPE) that had no thunderstorms. Results indicate that the occurrence of lightning is mainly a function of CAPE and is more likely when the temperature of the equilibrium level drops below −10°C. The probability for large hail is maximized with high values of boundary layer moisture, steep mid- and low-level lapse rates, and high lifting condensation level. The size of hail is mainly dependent on the deep layer shear (DLS) i...

A Conceptual Model for Development of Intense Pyrocumulonimbus in Western North America

Abstract: The first observationally based conceptual model for intense pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) development is described by applying reanalyzed meteorological model output to an inventory of 26 intense pyroCb events from June to August 2013 and a control inventory of intense fire activity without pyroCb. Results are based on 88 intense wildfires observed within the western United States and Canada. While surface-based fire weather indices are a useful indicator of intense fire activity, they are not a skillful predictor of intense pyroCb. Development occurs when a layer of increased moisture content and instability is advected over a dry, deep, and unstable mixed layer, typically along the leading edge of an approaching disturbance or under the influence of a monsoonal anticyclone. Upper-tropospheric dynamics are conducive to rising motion and vertical convective development. Mid- and upper-tropospheric conditions therefore resemble those that produce traditional dry thunderstorms. The specific quantity of...

Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences.

Abstract: Phenomena such as cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms can cause extreme weather in various regions throughout the world. Although these phenomena have been examined in numerous studies, they have not all been systematically examined in combination with each other, including in relation to extreme precipitation and extreme winds throughout the world. Consequently, the combined influence of these phenomena represents a substantial gap in the current understanding of the causes of extreme weather events. Here we present a systematic analysis of cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms in combination with each other, as represented by seven different types of storm combinations. Our results highlight the storm combinations that most frequently cause extreme weather in various regions of the world. The highest risk of extreme precipitation and extreme wind speeds is found to be associated with a triple storm type characterized by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences. Our findings reveal new insight on the relationships between cyclones, fronts and thunderstorms and clearly demonstrate the importance of concurrent phenomena in causing extreme weather.

Pyrocumulonimbus lightning and fire ignition on Black Saturday in southeast Australia

Abstract: A number of devastating wildfires occurred in southeast Australia on 7 February 2009, colloquially known as Black Saturday. Atmospheric responses to this extreme fire event are investigated here with a focus on convective processes associated with fire activity (i.e., pyroconvection). We examine six different fire complexes on Black Saturday, finding three clearly distinct pyrocumulonimbus storms, the largest of which reached heights of 15 km on that day and generated hundreds of lightning strokes. The first lightning stroke was recorded near the largest fire complex 5 h after fire ignition. One of the pyrocumulonimbus storms was initiated close to midnight due to mesoscale influences, consistent with extreme fire behavior observed at that time for that particular fire. As another example of fire-atmosphere interactions, a fire that started late on Black Saturday is examined in relation to ignition caused by pyrogenic lightning, with implications for understanding the maximum rate of spread of a wildfire. Results are discussed in relation to another pyrocumulonimbus event associated with the 2003 Canberra fires. Our findings are intended to provide a greater understanding of pyroconvection and fire-atmosphere feedback processes, as well as help enhance wildfire response capabilities. We also demonstrate the potential for using lightning, radar, and satellite remote sensing in combination with thermodynamic analyses as well as synoptic and mesoscale dynamics to provide enhanced real-time guidance for dangerous fire conditions associated with pyroconvection, as well as for the risk of new fire ignitions from pyrogenic lightning.

A 20-Year Climatology of Nocturnal Convection Initiation over the Central and Southern Great Plains during the Warm Season

Abstract: A nocturnal maximum in rainfall and thunderstorm activity over the central Great Plains has been widely documented, but the mechanisms for the development of thunderstorms over that region at night are still not well understood. Elevated convection above a surface frontal boundary is one explanation, but this study shows that many thunderstorms form at night without the presence of an elevated frontal inversion or nearby surface boundary.This study documents convection initiation (CI) events at night over the central Great Plains from 1996 to 2015 during the months of April–July. Storm characteristics such as storm type, linear system orientation, initiation time and location, and others were documented. Once all of the cases were documented, surface data were examined to locate any nearby surface boundaries. The event’s initiation location relative to these boundaries (if a boundary existed) was documented. Two main initiation locations relative to a surface boundary were identified: on a surface...

High-Resolution Hail Observations: Implications for NWS Warning Operations

Abstract: A field research campaign, the Hail Spatial and Temporal Observing Network Effort (HailSTONE), was designed to obtain physical high-resolution hail measurements at the ground associated with convective storms to help address several operational challenges that remain unsatisfied through public storm reports. Field phases occurred over a 5-yr period, yielding hail measurements from 73 severe thunderstorms [hail diameter ≥ 1.00 in. (2.54 cm)]. These data provide unprecedented insight into the hailfall character of each storm and afford a baseline to explore the representativeness of the climatological hail database and hail forecasts in NWS warning products. Based upon the full analysis of HailSTONE observations, hail sizes recorded in Storm Data as well as hail size forecasts in NWS warnings frequently underestimated the maximum diameter hailfall occurring at the surface. NWS hail forecasts were generally conservative in size and at least partially calibrated to incoming hail reports. Storm mode pl...

Aerosols and Their Impact on Radiation, Clouds, Precipitation, and Severe Weather Events

Abstract: Aerosols (tiny solid or liquid particles suspended in the atmosphere) have been in the forefront of environmental and climate change sciences as the primary atmospheric pollutant and external force affecting Earth’s weather and climate. There are two dominant mechanisms by which aerosols affect weather and climate: aerosol-radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs). ARIs arise from aerosol scattering and absorption, which alter the radiation budgets of the atmosphere and surface, while ACIs are connected to the fact that aerosols serve as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei. Both ARIs and ACIs are coupled with atmospheric dynamics to produce a chain of complex interactions with a large range of meteorological variables that influence both weather and climate. Elaborated here are the impacts of aerosols on the radiation budget, clouds (microphysics, structure, and lifetime), precipitation, and severe weather events (lightning, thunderstorms, hail, and tornadoes). Depending on environmental variables and aerosol properties, the effects can be both positive and negative, posing the largest uncertainties in the external forcing of the climate system. This has considerably hindered the ability to project future climate changes and make accurate numerical weather predictions.

Profuse activity of blue electrical discharges at the tops of thunderstorms

Abstract: Thunderstorm clouds may reach the lower stratosphere, affecting the exchange of greenhouse gases between the troposphere and stratosphere. This region of the atmosphere is difficult to access experimentally, and our knowledge of the processes taking place here is incomplete. We recently recorded color video footage of thunderstorms over the Bay of Bengal from the International Space Station. The observations show a multitude of blue, kilometer-scale, discharges at the cloud top layer at ~18 km altitude and a pulsating blue discharge propagating into the stratosphere reaching ~40 km altitude. The emissions are related to the so-called blue jets, blue starters, and possibly pixies. The observations are the first of their kind and give a new perspective on the electrical activity at the top of tropical thunderstorms; further, they underscore that thunderstorm discharges directly perturb the chemistry of the stratosphere with possible implications for the Earth's radiation balance.

WMO World Record Lightning Extremes: Longest Reported Flash Distance and Longest Reported Flash Duration

Abstract: A World Meteorological Organization weather and climate extremes committee has judged that the world's longest reported distance for a single lightning flash occurred with a horizontal distance of 321 km (199.5 mi) over Oklahoma in 2007, while the world's longest reported duration for a single lightning flash is an event that lasted continuously for 7.74 seconds over southern France in 2012. In addition, the committee has unanimously recommended amendment of the AMS Glossary of Meteorology definition of lightning discharge as a "series of electrical processes taking place within 1 second" by removing the phrase "within one second" and replacing with "continuously." Validation of these new world extremes (a) demonstrates the recent and on-going dramatic augmentations and improvements to regional lightning detection and measurement networks, (b) provides reinforcement regarding the dangers of lightning, and

Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming

Abstract: Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth’s atmosphere.

Low-frequency E-field Detection Array (LFEDA)—Construction and preliminary results

Abstract: In recent years, locating total lightning at the VLF/LF band has become one of the most important directions in lightning detection. The Low-frequency E-field Detection Array (LFEDA) consisting of nine fast antennas was developed by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences in Guangzhou between 2014 and 2015. This paper documents the composition of the LFEDA and a lightning-locating algorithm that applies to the low-frequency electric field radiated by lightning pulse discharge events (LPDEs). Theoretical simulation and objective assessment of the accuracy and detection efficiency of LFEDA have been done using Monte Carlo simulation and artificial triggered lightning experiment, respectively. The former results show that having a station in the network with a comparatively long baseline improves both the horizontal location accuracy in the direction perpendicular to the baseline and the vertical location accuracy along the baseline. The latter results show that detection efficiencies for triggered lightning flashes and return strokes are 100% and 95%, respectively. The average planar location error for return strokes of triggered lightning flashes is 102 m. By locating LPDEs in thunderstorms, we find that LPDEs are consistent with convective regions as indicated by strong reflectivity columns, and present a reasonable distribution in the vertical direction. In addition, the LFEDA can reveal an image of lightning development through mapping the channels of lightning. Based on three-dimensional locations, the vertical propagation speed of the preliminary breakdown and the changing trend of the leader’s speed in an intra-cloud and a cloud-to-ground flash are investigated. The research results show that the LFEDA has the capability for three-dimensional location of lightning, which provides a new technique for researching lightning development characteristics and thunderstorm electricity.

Kinematic and Microphysical Significance of Lightning Jumps versus Non-Jump Increases in Total Flash Rate.

Abstract: Thirty-nine thunderstorms are examined using multiple-Doppler, polarimetric and total lightning observations to understand the role of mixed phase kinematics and microphysics in the development of lightning jumps. This sample size is larger than those of previous studies on this topic. The principal result of this study is that lightning jumps are a result of mixed phase updraft intensification. Larger increases in intense updraft volume (≥ 10 m s-1) and larger changes in peak updraft speed are observed prior to lightning jump occurrence when compared to other non-jump increases in total flash rate. Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney Rank Sum testing yields p-values ≤0.05, indicating statistical independence between lightning jump and non-jump distributions for these two parameters. Similar changes in mixed phase graupel mass magnitude are observed prior to lightning jumps and non-jump increases in total flash rate. The p-value for graupel mass change is p=0.096, so jump and non-jump distributions for graupel mass change are not found statistically independent using the p=0.05 significance level. Timing of updraft volume, speed and graupel mass increases are found to be 4 to 13 minutes in advance of lightning jump occurrence. Also, severe storms without lightning jumps lack robust mixed phase updrafts, demonstrating that mixed phase updrafts are not always a requirement for severe weather occurrence. Therefore, the results of this study show that lightning jump occurrences are coincident with larger increases in intense mixed phase updraft volume and peak updraft speed than smaller non-jump increases in total flash rate.

The properties of optical lightning flashes and the clouds they illuminate

Abstract: Optical lightning sensors like the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) measure total lightning across large swaths of the globe with high detection efficiency. With two upcoming missions that employ these sensors – LIS on the International Space Station (ISS-LIS) and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on the GOES-R satellite – there has been increased interest in what these measurements can reveal about lightning and thunderstorms in addition to total flash activity. Optical lightning imagers are capable of observing the characteristics of individual flashes that include their sizes, durations, and radiative energies. However, it is important to exercise caution when interpreting trends in optical flash measurements because they can be affected by the scene. This study uses coincident measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite to examine the properties of LIS flashes and the surrounding cloud regions they illuminate. These combined measurements are used to assess to what extent optical flash characteristics can be used to make inferences about flash structure and energetics. Clouds illuminated by lightning over land and ocean regions that are otherwise similar based on TRMM measurements are identified. Even when LIS flashes occur in similar clouds and background radiances, oceanic flashes are still shown to be larger, brighter, longer lasting, more prone to horizontal propagation and to contain more groups than their land-based counterparts. This suggests that the optical trends noted in literature are not entirely the result of radiative transfer effects, but rather stem from physical differences in the flashes.

Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years.

Abstract: Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.

Identification of favorable environments for thunderstorms in reanalysis data

Abstract: The relations between lightning occurrence over Europe from the EUCLID network (2008–2013) and parameters derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis data were studied to increase the understanding of the conditions under which thunderstorms form. The objective was to identify relevant factors beyond instability and convective inhibition, in order to better model thunderstorms using numerical weather prediction or climate model data. It was found that latent instability is only required up to a certain amount of approximately 200–400 J kg-1 CAPE. For higher values of CAPE (∼ 800–2800 J kg-1), the relative frequency of lightning is rather constant. Relative humidity in the low to mid-troposphere has a major influence on storm occurrence with low relative humidity strongly suppressing thunderstorm development. For an average 850–500 hPa relative humidity below 50%, the frequency of lightning decreases to below 15%, even when CIN is negligible and CAPE sufficient. A subtle dependency on wind shear was found in which two regimes of higher frequency of lightning were identified. For very weak and for high shear the probability was higher than for intermediate values of both deep-layer and low-level shear.

Characteristics of Upward Lightning on the Beijing 325 m Meteorology Tower and Corresponding Thunderstorm Conditions

Abstract: Comprehensive observation on lightning striking the 325 m meteorology tower has been conducted in Beijing, China, during the summer season from 2012 to 2016. For the 20 tower flashes captured by high-speed video camera, 19 (95%) cases were initiated from the tower (termed as upward lightning (UL)), with duration of 42–844 ms. Most ULs (84.2%, 16/19) were triggered by nearby lightning, of which positive cloud-to-ground flashes (+CGs) account for 87.5% (14/16). Analysis on the characteristics of the causal or triggering lightning flashes suggests that the approaching of negative leader process through in-cloud horizontal channel is the vital condition for the initiation of upward leader. Generally, the UL initiation follows the nearby discharges, while for a special case in our data set, the nearby positive return stroke was found to occur after the establishment of an upward channel from the tower. It is worth noting that this +CG led to a significant enhancement of the tower-initiating leader, with eight subsequent return strokes and two M component processes occurring to the tower thereafter. The radar echo of the corresponding thunderstorm indicates that the other-triggered UL (OTUL) tended to occur at the dissipation stage of the thunderstorm with relatively low cloud top height and weak radar echo, while the self-initiating UL (SIUL) was more likely to occur when the thunderstorm was in the mature stage and the tower was underneath the stratiform clouds behind the convective region. The meteorology condition for SIUL involved lower ambient temperature and higher wind speed, as compared to the OTUL.

Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

Abstract: Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years

Abstract: Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.

Lightning Potential Index performances in multimicrophysical cloud-resolving simulations of a back-building mesoscale convective system: The Genoa 2014 event

Abstract: Severe weather events are responsible for hundreds of fatalities and millions of euros of damage every year on the Mediterranean basin. Lightning activity is a characteristic phenomenon of severe weather and often accompanies torrential rainfall, which, under certain conditions like terrain type, slope, drainage, and soil saturation, may turn into flash flood. Building on the existing relationship between significant lightning activity and deep convection and precipitation, the performance of the Lightning Potential Index, as a measure of the potential for charge generation and separation that leads to lightning occurrence in clouds, is here evaluated for the V-shape back-building Mesoscale Convective System which hit Genoa city (Italy) in 2014. An ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting simulations at cloud-permitting grid spacing (1km) with different microphysical parameterizations is performed and compared to the available observational radar and lightning data. The results allow gaining a deeper understanding of the role of lightning phenomena in the predictability of V-shape back-building Mesoscale Convective Systems often producing flash flood over western Mediterranean complex topography areas. Moreover, they support the relevance of accurate lightning forecasting for the predictive ability of these severe events.

Improved prediction of severe thunderstorms over the Indian Monsoon region using high-resolution soil moisture and temperature initialization.

Abstract: The hypothesis that realistic land conditions such as soil moisture/soil temperature (SM/ST) can significantly improve the modeling of mesoscale deep convection is tested over the Indian monsoon region (IMR). A high resolution (3 km foot print) SM/ST dataset prepared from a land data assimilation system, as part of a national monsoon mission project, showed close agreement with observations. Experiments are conducted with (LDAS) and without (CNTL) initialization of SM/ST dataset. Results highlight the significance of realistic land surface conditions on numerical prediction of initiation, movement and timing of severe thunderstorms as compared to that currently being initialized by climatological fields in CNTL run. Realistic land conditions improved mass flux, convective updrafts and diabatic heating in the boundary layer that contributed to low level positive potential vorticity. The LDAS run reproduced reflectivity echoes and associated rainfall bands more efficiently. Improper representation of surface conditions in CNTL run limit the evolution boundary layer processes and thereby failed to simulate convection at right time and place. These findings thus provide strong support to the role land conditions play in impacting the deep convection over the IMR. These findings also have direct implications for improving heavy rain forecasting over the IMR, by developing realistic land conditions.

Detecting Severe Weather Trends Using an Additive Regressive Convective Hazard Model (AR-CHaMo)

Abstract: A statistical model for the occurrence of convective hazards was developed and applied to reanalysis data to detect multi-decadal trends in hazard frequency. The modeling framework is based on an additive logistic regression of observed hazards to predictors derived from numerical model data. The regression predicts the probability for a severe hazard, which is considered as product of two components: the probability that a storm occurs and the probability of the severe hazard given the presence of a storm: P(severe) = P(storm) x P(severe|storm). The model was developed using lightning data as an indication for thunderstorm occurrence and hazard reports across Central Europe. Although it uses only two predictors per component, it is capable of reproducing the observed spatial distribution of lightning and yields realistic annual cycles of lightning, hail and wind fairly accurately. The model was applied to the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979 - 2016) across Europe to detect any changes in lightning, h...

On the initiation of lightning in thunderclouds.

Abstract: The relationship of lightning and elementary particle fluxes in the thunderclouds is not fully understood to date. Using the particle beams (the so-called Thunderstorm Ground Enhancements – TGEs) as a probe we investigate the characteristics of the interrelated atmospheric processes. The well-known effect of the TGE dynamics is the abrupt termination of the particle flux by the lightning flash. With new precise electronics, we can see that particle flux decline occurred simultaneously with the rearranging of the charge centers in the cloud. The analysis of the TGE energy spectra before and after the lightning demonstrates that the high-energy part of the TGE energy spectra disappeared just after lightning. The decline of particle flux coincides on millisecond time scale with first atmospheric discharges and we can conclude that Relativistic Runaway Electron Avalanches (RREA) in the thundercloud assist initiation of the negative cloud to ground lightning. Thus, RREA can provide enough ionization to play a significant role in the unleashing of the lightning flash.

Modeling Urban Precipitation Modification by Spatially Heterogeneous Aerosols

Abstract: This study introduces a methodology to simulate how spatially heterogeneous urban aerosols modify a precipitating thunderstorm in a numerical weather model. An air quality model (simple photochemical model) was coupled with a high-resolution mesoscale weather model (the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) and generated variable urban cloud condensation nuclei values consistent with those measured in previous field studies. The coupled emission model was used to simulate the passage of a synoptic low pressure system with embedded thunderstorms over an idealized city using the real-atmosphere idealized land surface (RAIL) method. Experiments were conducted to calibrate the surface formation of cloud-nucleating aerosols in an urban environment and then to assess the specific response of different aerosol loads on simulated precipitation. The model response to aerosol heterogeneity reduced the total precipitation but significantly increased simulated rain rates. High-aerosol-loading scenarios produc...

Tornado Damage Rating Probabilities Derived from WSR-88D Data

Abstract: Previous work with observations from the NEXRAD (WSR-88D) network in the United States has shown that the probability of damage from a tornado, as represented by EF-scale ratings, increases as low-level rotational velocity increases. This work expands on previous studies by including reported tornadoes from 2014 to 2015, as well as a robust sample of nontornadic severe thunderstorms [≥1-in.- (2.54 cm) diameter hail, thunderstorm wind gusts ≥ 50 kt (25 m s−1), or reported wind damage] with low-level cyclonic rotation. The addition of the nontornadic sample allows the computation of tornado damage rating probabilities across a spectrum of organized severe thunderstorms represented by right-moving supercells and quasi-linear convective systems. Dual-polarization variables are used to ensure proper use of velocity data in the identification of tornadic and nontornadic cases. Tornado damage rating probabilities increase as low-level rotational velocity Vrot increases and circulation diameter decreases....