Journal ArticleDOI
Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate
Gorka Merino,Manuel Barange,Julia L. Blanchard,James Harle,Robert Holmes,Icarus Allen,Edward H. Allison,Marie Caroline Badjeck,Nicholas K. Dulvy,Jason Holt,Simon Jennings,Simon Jennings,Christian Mullon,Lynda D. Rodwell +13 more
TLDR
In this article, the authors investigated the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050 and concluded that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish.Abstract:
Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.read more
Citations
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Food security and food production systems
John R. Porter,Liyong Xie,Andrew J. Challinor,Kevern L. Cochrane,S. Mark Howden,Muhammad Iqbal,David B. Lobell,Maria I. Travasso,Netra Chhetri,Karen A. Garrett,John Ingram,Leslie Lipper,Nancy McCarthy,Justin M. McGrath,Daniel R. Smith,Philip K. Thornton,James E. M. Watson,Lewis H. Ziska +17 more
TL;DR: The questions for this chapter are how far climate and its change affect current food production systems and food security and the extent to which they will do so in the future.
Journal ArticleDOI
Feeding 9 billion by 2050 – Putting fish back on the menu
Christophe Béné,Christophe Béné,Manuel Barange,Rohana P. Subasinghe,Per Pinstrup-Andersen,Gorka Merino,Gro Ingunn Hemre,Meryl J. Williams +7 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors make a case for a closer integration of fish into the overall debate and future policy about food security and nutrition, making a case that fish is one of the most efficient converters of feed into high quality food and its carbon footprint is lower compared to other animal production systems.
Journal ArticleDOI
Contribution of Fisheries and Aquaculture to Food Security and Poverty Reduction: Assessing the Current Evidence
Christophe Béné,Robert Arthur,Hannah Norbury,Edward H. Allison,Malcolm Beveridge,Simon R. Bush,Liam Campling,William Leschen,David C. Little,Dale Squires,Shakuntala H. Thilsted,Max Troell,Meryl J. Williams +12 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluate the existing evidence of how and to what extent capture fisheries and aquaculture contribute to improving nutrition, food security, and economic growth in developing and emergent countries.
Journal ArticleDOI
Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries
Manuel Barange,Gorka Merino,Julia L. Blanchard,Joeri Scholtens,James Harle,Edward H. Allison,J. I. Allen,John M Holt,Sarah Jennings,Sarah Jennings +9 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors predicted changes in fish production indicate increased productivity at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low/mid latitudes, with considerable regional variations, with few exceptions, increases and decreases in fishes production potential by 2050 are estimated to be <10% (meanC3.4%).
Journal ArticleDOI
Reducing risks to food security from climate change
Bruce M. Campbell,Bruce M. Campbell,Sonja J. Vermeulen,Sonja J. Vermeulen,Pramod K. Aggarwal,Caitlin Corner-Dolloff,Evan H. Girvetz,Ana Maria Loboguerrero,Julian Ramirez-Villegas,Julian Ramirez-Villegas,Todd S. Rosenstock,Leocadio S. Sebastian,Philip K. Thornton,Eva K. Wollenberg +13 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on changing the culture of research, deriving stakeholder-driven portfolios of options for farmers, communities and countries, and ensuring that adaptation actions are relevant to those most vulnerable to climate change.
References
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Special report on emissions scenarios
Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Joseph Alcamo,Gerald F. Davis,Bert de Vries,Joergen Fenhann,Stuart Gaffin,Kermeth Gregory,Amulf Griibler,Tae Y. Jung,Tom Kram,Emilio Lèbre La Rovere,Laurie Michaelis,S. Mori,Tsuneyuki Morita,William Pepper,Hugh M. Pitcher,Lynn Price,Keywan Riahi,Alexander Roehrl,Hans-Holger Rogner,Alexei Sankovski,Michael E. Schlesinger,Priyadarshi R. Shukla,Steven J. Smith,Robert Swart,Sascha van Rooijen,Nadejda M. Victor,Zhou Dadi +27 more
TL;DR: Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., Vries, B. van; Victor, N.; Zhou, D. de; Fenhann, J.; Gaffin, S.; Gregory, K.; Grubler, A.; Jung, T. La; Michaelis, L.; Mori, S; Morita, T.; Pepper, W.; Pitcher, H.; Price, L., Riahi, K; Rogner, H-H.; Sankovski, A; Schlesinger, M.; Shuk
Journal ArticleDOI
Effect of aquaculture on world fish supplies
Rosamond L. Naylor,Rebecca J. Goldburg,Jurgenne H. Primavera,Nils Kautsky,Malcolm Beveridge,Jason Clay,Carl Folke,Jane Lubchenco,Harold A. Mooney,Max Troell +9 more
TL;DR: If the growing aquaculture industry is to sustain its contribution to world fish supplies, it must reduce wild fish inputs in feed and adopt more ecologically sound management practices.
Journal ArticleDOI
Social-Ecological Resilience to Coastal Disasters
TL;DR: Social and ecological vulnerability to disasters and outcomes of any particular extreme event are influenced by buildup or erosion of resilience both before and after disasters occur.
Journal ArticleDOI
Rebuilding Global Fisheries
Boris Worm,Ray Hilborn,Julia K. Baum,Trevor A. Branch,Jeremy S. Collie,Christopher Costello,Michael J. Fogarty,Elizabeth A. Fulton,Jeffrey A. Hutchings,Simon Jennings,Simon Jennings,Olaf P. Jensen,Heike K. Lotze,Pamela M. Mace,Tim R. McClanahan,Cóilín Minto,Stephen R. Palumbi,Ana M. Parma,Daniel Ricard,Andrew Rosenberg,Reg Watson,Dirk Zeller +21 more
TL;DR: Current trends in world fisheries are analyzed from a fisheries and conservation perspective, finding that 63% of assessed fish stocks worldwide still require rebuilding, and even lower exploitation rates are needed to reverse the collapse of vulnerable species.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global overview on the use of fish meal and fish oil in industrially compounded aquafeeds: Trends and future prospects
Albert G. J. Tacon,Marc Metian +1 more
TL;DR: The finfish and crustacean aquaculture sector is still highly dependent upon marine capture fisheries for sourcing key dietary nutrient inputs, including fish meal and fish oil, which is particularly strong within compound aquafeeds for farmed carnivorous finfish species and marine shrimp.