Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change
Joost Vervoort,Joost Vervoort,Philip K. Thornton,Philip K. Thornton,Patti Kristjanson,Wiebke Förch,Polly J. Ericksen,Kasper Kok,John Ingram,John Ingram,Mario Herrero,Mario Herrero,Amanda Palazzo,Ariella Helfgott,Ariella Helfgott,Ariella Helfgott,Angela Wilkinson,Petr Havlik,Daniel Mason-D'Croz,Christine Jost +19 more
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TLDR
In this article, the authors examined the development and use of scenarios as an approach to guide action in multi-level, multi-actor adaptation contexts such as food security under climate change, and applied lessons about appropriate scope, enabling adaptation pathways, and developing strategic planning capacity to scenarios processes in multiple global regions.Abstract:
This paper examines the development and use of scenarios as an approach to guide action in multi-level, multi-actor adaptation contexts such as food security under climate change. Three challenges are highlighted: (1) ensuring the appropriate scope for action; (2) moving beyond intervention-based decision guidance; and (3) developing long-term shared capacity for strategic planning. To overcome these challenges we have applied explorative scenarios and normative back-casting with stakeholders from different sectors at the regional level in East Africa. We then applied lessons about appropriate scope, enabling adaptation pathways, and developing strategic planning capacity to scenarios processes in multiple global regions. Scenarios were created to have a broad enough scope to be relevant to diverse actors, and then adapted by different actor groups to ensure their salience in specific decision contexts. The initial strategy for using the scenarios by bringing a range of actors together to explore new collaborative proposals had limitations as well as strengths versus the application of scenarios for specific actor groups and existing decision pathways. Scenarios development and use transitioned from an intervention-based process to an embedded process characterized by continuous engagement. Feasibility and long-term sustainability could be ensured by having decision makers own the process and focusing on developing strategic planning capacity within their home organizations.read more
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Climate-smart agriculture for food security
Leslie Lipper,Philip K. Thornton,Philip K. Thornton,Bruce M. Campbell,Bruce M. Campbell,Tobias Baedeker,Ademola K. Braimoh,Martin Bwalya,Patrick Caron,Andrea Cattaneo,Dennis Garrity,Kevin Henry,Ryan Hottle,Louise E. Jackson,Andy Jarvis,Andy Jarvis,Fred Kossam,Wendy Mann,Nancy McCarthy,Alexandre Meybeck,Henry Neufeldt,Thomas Remington,Pham Thi Sen,Reuben Sessa,Reynolds Shula,Austin Tibu,Emmanuel Torquebiau +26 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors outline a set of CSA actions needed from public, private and civil society stakeholders: building evidence; increasing local institutional effectiveness; fostering coherence between climate and agricultural policies; and linking climate and agriculture financing.
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Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review.
TL;DR: New analysis is presented that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future and highlights the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers.
Journal ArticleDOI
Greenhouse gas mitigation potentials in the livestock sector
Mario Herrero,Benjamin B. Henderson,Petr Havlik,Philip K. Thornton,Philip K. Thornton,Richard T. Conant,Pete Smith,Stefan Wirsenius,Stefan Wirsenius,Alexander N. Hristov,P.J. Gerber,Margaret Gill,Klaus Butterbach-Bahl,Klaus Butterbach-Bahl,Hugo Valin,Tara Garnett,Elke Stehfest +16 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors estimated that between 1995 and 2005, the livestock sector was responsible for greenhouse gas emissions of 5.6-7.5GtCO(2)e yr(-1).
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Reducing risks to food security from climate change
Bruce M. Campbell,Bruce M. Campbell,Sonja J. Vermeulen,Sonja J. Vermeulen,Pramod K. Aggarwal,Caitlin Corner-Dolloff,Evan H. Girvetz,Ana Maria Loboguerrero,Julian Ramirez-Villegas,Julian Ramirez-Villegas,Todd S. Rosenstock,Leocadio S. Sebastian,Philip K. Thornton,Eva K. Wollenberg +13 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on changing the culture of research, deriving stakeholder-driven portfolios of options for farmers, communities and countries, and ensuring that adaptation actions are relevant to those most vulnerable to climate change.
Journal ArticleDOI
An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation
Holger R. Maier,Joseph H. A. Guillaume,H. van Delden,Graeme Riddell,Marjolijn Haasnoot,Jan H. Kwakkel +5 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a multidisciplinary perspective on how the above factors fit together to facilitate the development of strategies that are best suited to dealing with a deeply uncertain future.
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