Showing papers by "Simon Dellicour published in 2017"

Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic

Abstract: The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic 'gravity' model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics.

Using Viral Gene Sequences to Compare and Explain the Heterogeneous Spatial Dynamics of Virus Epidemics.

Abstract: Rabies is an important zoonotic disease distributed worldwide. A key question in rabies epidemiology is the identification of factors that impact virus dispersion. Here we apply new analytical methods, based on phylogeographic reconstructions of viral lineage movement, to undertake a comparative evolutionary-epidemiological study of the spatial dynamics of rabies virus (RABV) epidemics in different hosts and habitats. We compiled RABV data sets from skunk, raccoon, bat and domestic dog populations in order to investigate the viral diffusivity of different RABV epidemics, and to detect and compare the environmental factors that impact the velocity of viral spread in continuous spatial landscapes. We build on a recently developed statistical framework that uses spatially- and temporally-referenced phylogenies. We estimate several spatial statistics of virus spread, which reveal a higher diffusivity of RABV in domestic dogs compared with RABV in other mammals. This finding is explained by subsequent analyses of environmental heterogeneity, which indicate that factors relating to human geography play a significant role in RABV dispersion in domestic dogs. More generally, our results suggest that human-related factors are important worldwide in explaining RABV dispersion in terrestrial host species. Our study shows that phylogenetically informed viral movements can be used to elucidate the factors that impact virus dispersal, opening new opportunities for a better understanding of the impact of host species and environmental conditions on the spatial dynamics of rapidly evolving populations.

Distribution and predictors of wing shape and size variability in three sister species of solitary bees.

Abstract: Morphological traits can be highly variable over time in a particular geographical area. Different selective pressures shape those traits, which is crucial in evolutionary biology. Among these traits, insect wing morphometry has already been widely used to describe phenotypic variability at the inter-specific level. On the contrary, fewer studies have focused on intra-specific wing morphometric variability. Yet, such investigations are relevant to study potential convergences of variation that could highlight micro-evolutionary processes. The recent sampling and sequencing of three solitary bees of the genus Melitta across their entire species range provides an excellent opportunity to jointly analyse genetic and morphometric variability. In the present study, we first aim to analyse the spatial distribution of the wing shape and centroid size (used as a proxy for body size) variability. Secondly, we aim to test different potential predictors of this variability at both the intra- and inter-population levels, which includes genetic variability, but also geographic locations and distances, elevation, annual mean temperature and precipitation. The comparison of spatial distribution of intra-population morphometric diversity does not reveal any convergent pattern between species, thus undermining the assumption of a potential local and selective adaptation at the population level. Regarding intra-specific wing shape differentiation, our results reveal that some tested predictors, such as geographic and genetic distances, are associated with a significant correlation for some species. However, none of these predictors are systematically identified for the three species as an important factor that could explain the intra-specific morphometric variability. As a conclusion, for the three solitary bee species and at the scale of this study, our results clearly tend to discard the assumption of the existence of a common pattern of intra-specific signal/structure within the intra-specific wing shape and body size variability.

Ecological niche modelling and coalescent simulations to explore the recent geographical range history of five widespread bumblebee species in Europe

Abstract: AimStudying the changes in species ranges during the last glaciation event is an important step towards the understanding of the observed patterns of intra-specific genetic variability. We focused on bumblebees, an interesting biological model to address these questions because cold-adapted species are likely to have experienced different geographical range histories during the last glacial period compared to more commonly studied, strictly temperate, species. We investigated and compared historical hypotheses regarding the geographical range of five common and co-distributed West Palaearctic bumblebee species. LocationEurope, West Palaearctic. MethodsFor each species, we inferred present and past (Last Glacial Maximum) distributions from species occurrence records, and present and past climatic data, using the ecological niche modelling (ENM) approach implemented in Maxent. Based on genetic data previously obtained from the sequencing of three gene fragments (mitochondrial locus COI and two nuclear loci EF-1 and PEPCK), we then compared global and local patterns of genetic variation using several summary statistics as well as a visual mapping of genetic variation. Finally, we used a spatially explicit model of DNA sequence coalescence to test and compare four evolutionary scenarios derived from ENM results and patterns of genetic diversity. ResultsEcological niche modelling results based on climatic data clearly suggested a range continuum in Europe during the last glaciation. Yet, the related evolutionary scenario involving such continuum was less supported than alternative scenarios involving a more fragmented distribution. Indeed, for the three out of five species for which genetic data allowed discriminating among tested scenarios, the scenario that included a fragmented range during the last glaciation was identified as the most likely. Main conclusionsAlthough ENM suggested that bumblebees would have maintained a range continuum across Europe during the last glaciation, coalescent simulations tended to refute the persistence of a large range continuum for these species during this period. This suggests that even for cold-adapted species, the cooling periods have significantly shrunk and fragmented their respective ranges.

Cross-border spread, lineage displacement and evolutionary rate estimation of rabies virus in Yunnan Province, China

Abstract: Rabies is an important but underestimated threat to public health, with most cases reported in Asia. Since 2000, a new epidemic wave of rabies has emerged in Yunnan Province, southwestern China, which borders three countries in Southeast Asia. We estimated gene-specific evolutionary rates for rabies virus using available data in GenBank, then used this information to calibrate the timescale of rabies virus (RABV) spread in Asia. We used 452 publicly available geo-referenced complete nucleoprotein (N) gene sequences, including 52 RABV sequences that were recently generated from samples collected in Yunnan between 2008 and 2012. The RABV N gene evolutionary rate was estimated to be 1.88 × 10−4 (1.37–2.41 × 10−4, 95% Bayesian credible interval, BCI) substitutions per site per year. Phylogenetic reconstructions show that the currently circulating RABV lineages in Yunnan result from at least seven independent introductions (95% BCI: 6–9 introductions) and represent each of the three main Asian RABV lineages, SEA-1, -2 and -3. We find that Yunnan is a sink location for the domestic spread of RABV and connects RABV epidemics in North China, South China, and Southeast Asia. Cross-border spread from southeast Asia (SEA) into South China, and intermixing of the North and South China epidemics is also well supported. The influx of RABV into Yunnan from SEA was not well-supported, likely due to the poor sampling of SEA RABV diversity. We found evidence for a lineage displacement of the Yunnan SEA-2 and -3 lineages by Yunnan SEA-1 strains, and considered whether this could be attributed to fitness differences. Overall, our study contributes to a better understanding of the spread of RABV that could facilitate future rabies virus control and prevention efforts.

Host Genetic Variation Does Not Determine Spatio-Temporal Patterns of European Bat 1 Lyssavirus.

Abstract: The majority of bat rabies cases in Europe are attributed to European bat 1 lyssavirus (EBLV-1), circulating mainly in serotine bats (Eptesicus serotinus). Two subtypes have been defined (EBLV-1a and EBLV-1b), each associated with a different geographical distribution. In this study, we undertake a comprehensive sequence analysis based on 80 newly obtained EBLV-1 nearly complete genome sequences from nine European countries over a 45-year period to infer selection pressures, rates of nucleotide substitution, and evolutionary time scale of these two subtypes in Europe. Our results suggest that the current lineage of EBLV-1 arose in Europe $600 years ago and the virus has evolved at an estimated average substitution rate of $4.19Â10 A5 subs/site/ year, which is among the lowest recorded for RNA viruses. In parallel, we investigate the genetic structure of French serotine bats at both the nuclear and mitochondrial level and find that they constitute a single genetic cluster. Furthermore, Mantel tests based on interindividual distances reveal the absence of correlation between genetic distances estimated between viruses and between host individuals. Taken together, this indicates that the genetic diversity observed in our E. serotinus samples does not account for EBLV-1a and-1b segregation and dispersal in Europe.

Glacial survival of trophically linked boreal species in northern Europe

Abstract: Whether non-arctic species persisted in northern Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is highly debated. Until now, the debate has mostly focused on plants, with little consideration for other groups of organisms, e.g. the numerous plant-dependent insect species. Here, we study the late-Quaternary evolution of the European range of a boreo-montane leaf beetle, Gonioctena intermedia, which feeds exclusively on the boreal and temperate trees Prunus padus and Sorbus aucuparia Using species distribution models, we estimated the congruence between areas of past and present suitable climate for this beetle and its host plants. Then we derived historical hypotheses from the congruent range estimates, and evaluated their compatibility with observed DNA sequence variation at five independent loci. We investigated compatibility using computer simulations of population evolution under various coalescence models. We find strong evidence for range modifications in response to late-Quaternary climate changes, and support for the presence of populations of G. intermedia in northern Europe since the beginning of the last glaciation. The presence of a co-dependent insect in the region through the LGM provides new evidence supporting the glacial survival of cold-tolerant tree species in northern Europe.

Conservation genetics of European bees: new insights from the continental scale

Abstract: Population connectivity is an important source of information for planning conservation strategy. The degree of connectivity implies using alternative conservation prioritizations based on the appropriate spatial scale for management units. In species with low population connectivity, it is important to preserve local populations in order to maintain the species throughout its range. In contrast, species with high connectivity require extensive management aiming at preserving gene flow through the entire species range. Here we examine at the continental scale the relationship between inter-population/inter-individual genetic and geographical distances to study the isolation-by-distance (IBD) pattern within the European range of nine wild bee species. We then assess the suitability of multi-local or extensive conservation to ensure their long-term survival. Results based on inter-population differences show only two out of nine species with significant IBD. European bee populations seem quite connected when their IBD is compared to IBD of other phyla. However, our results based on inter-individual distances show that eight out of nine species display significant IBD. These different results are presumably a consequence of potential limitations of the inter-population approach. Therefore, we speculate that the inter-population approach could result in inaccurate IBD estimations. This approach should therefore be replaced by the inter-individual approach in order to provide strong supported conservation guidelines. We support multi-local conservation programs based on our analysis of inter-individual distances.