Central Economics and Mathematics Institute

About: Central Economics and Mathematics Institute is a facility organization based out in Moscow, Russia. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Foreign-exchange reserves. The organization has 297 authors who have published 580 publications receiving 6449 citations. The organization is also known as: Federal State Institution of Science Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Benefits of entry control: the Russian case

Abstract: This article compares an original theory of gatekeeping and public choice theory, confronting them with data from an emerging market, Russia. It argues that the former theory produces riskier predictions than the latter one. The Popperian criteria for falsification of a theory suggest that the riskier the predictions the theory produces, the more confidence we have in the outcomes of its falsification. Theory of public choice predicts that either the government wins and business loses (the tollbooth hypothesis) or business wins and the government loses (regulatory capture theory). The theory of gatekeeping predicts that both the government and business win. Furthermore, the third agent's (the population's) pecuniary interests are also supposedly associated with the interests of the first two agents. A series of econometric tests using sub-national data from Russia show that the gatekeeper's interests are indeed positively associated with the interests of the businesses that manage to get admitted to the f...

Puzzles of public opinion: Why Soviet population supports the transition to capitalism since the 1980S

Abstract: Why even after the dramatic increase in inequality in the 1990s and after the emergence and enrichment of “oligarchs”, the alternative (leftist, social democratic) economic policies that could have improved material and social wellbeing of the majority of the population is not supported by this majority? It is argued that in immature democracies (without efficient restrictions for the participation of private capital in politics) mass media and electoral campaigns are controlled by the rich, so there is vicious circle: market reforms and private property create the class of the wealthy “oligarchs” that are not only interested in these reforms, but also have power to maintain their political and economic might through mass media and democratic elections. The return of public opinion to the “norm” so that it reflects interests of the majority is possible only if mass media and political process are separated from private capital and private financing.

Contractual Savings for Housing: A Mortgage Institution for Russia

Abstract: The paper argues that introduction of сontractual savings for housing (CSH) - bausparkassen and building and loan cooperatives - is an essential institutional stage in the process of mass mortgage market formation. An attempt to skip over it is a costly mistake and almost doomed to failure. Given an active government support CSH become a primary school of saving and loan behavior for millions and an effective tool for selection and education of steady borrowers for the banking system. In a short period of time they allow to increase substantially aggregate savings. CSH facilitate people's access to credit market and its further institutional evolution. To prove these conclusions the authors investigate specific features of housing markets, the role of CSH in development of housing finances in advanced economies, analyze recent experience of East European countries and numerous attempts to create the mortgage market in Russia in 1992-2003.

Extremal measures and hedging in American options

Abstract: We establish existence conditions for extremal probability measures, study their properties, and consider applications of such measures for solving the perfect hedging problem for American options on incomplete "frictionless" markets with finite horizon. We develop an algorithm for computing an American option and solve a corresponding new example with this algorithm.

Can Uzbekistan Economy Retain Its High Growth Rates? Scenarios of Economic Development in 2015-30

Abstract: Uzbekistan in recent 10 years is an extremely successful economy – high growth (8%), low domestic and international debt, undervalued exchange rate, relatively even distribution of income, creation from scratch competitive export oriented auto industry. It is important though to avoid “dizziness from success” and to envisage possible growth traps in the future. This paper discusses two unfavourable scenarios – negative terms of trade shock due to the decline in cotton, gas and gold prices (a deterioration of the current account balance by 10 p.p. of GDP) and a decline in growth rates of total factor productivity (TFP), as well as possible government responses to these shocks, in particular, changes in industrial policy. In recent years Uzbekistan promotes heavy chemistry industries (production of synthetic fuel and polypropylene goods from natural gas). This is the next stage of industrial policy after reaching food and energy self-sufficiency and successful auto industry development. There are reservations, however, against this strategy. First, gas production is about to decline due to depletion of reserves. Second, the level and growth rates of TFP in heavy chemistry are by far not the highest (they are the highest in light and food industry and in machine building). The increased share of heavy chemistry in total industrial output will cause the decline in the level and the growth rates of TFP. Third, auto industry is already a success, it may be reasonable to continue to support machine building industries of medium level of technology sophistication, like auto industry. For the country of the average size, export specialization in two major areas (autos and heavy chemistry) may be excessive.