HEC Paris

About: HEC Paris is a education organization based out in Jouy-en-Josas, France. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Investment (macroeconomics) & Market liquidity. The organization has 584 authors who have published 2756 publications receiving 104467 citations. The organization is also known as: Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales & HEC School of Management Paris.

Hard Assets: The Returns on Rare Diamonds and Gems

Abstract: This note examines the investment performance of diamonds and other gems (sapphires, rubies, and emeralds) over the period 1999-2010, using a novel data set of auction transactions. Over our time frame, the annualized real USD returns for white and colored diamonds equaled 6.4% and 2.9%, respectively. Since 2003, the average returns have been 10.0%, 5.5%, and 6.8% for white diamonds, colored diamonds, and other gems, respectively. Both white and colored diamonds outperformed stocks between 1999 and 2010. Nevertheless, gem returns covary positively with stock returns, underlining the importance of wealth-induced demand for luxury consumption in collectibles markets.

Fast-Mover Advantages: Speed Capabilities and Entry into the Emerging Submarket of Atlantic Basin LNG

Abstract: Studies on market entry focus on the tradeoff between commitment and flexibility: early entrants face less competition but risk costly mistakes due to limited information, whereas late entrants can benefit from information revelation and learning opportunities but risk high costs from preemption. These entry timing benefits and costs typically vary with firms’ capabilities. In this study, we empirically examine the relationship between firms’ intrinsic speed capabilities and entry timing. Speed capabilities refer to firms’ ability to execute the process of entering a new market faster than competitors when market entry is time-consuming. Since firms with intrinsic speed capabilities can complete entry faster, they face low preemption risks. The implication is that faster firms can afford to wait longer for uncertainty resolution before deciding to enter new markets than slower firms. This hypothesis is more applicable when investment is associated with higher levels of commitment and thus greater option value of waiting. A related implication is that late entrants with intrinsic speed capabilities should have greater expected post-entry performance. We find support for these hypotheses by examining the entry timing and entry performance of firms in the Atlantic Basin liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry from 1996 to 2007.

Overcoming Limits of Arbitrage: Theory and Evidence

Abstract: We present a model where arbitrageurs operate on an asset market that can be hit by information shocks. Before entering the market, arbitrageurs are allowed to optimize their capital structure, in order to take advantage of potential underpricing. We find that, at equilibrium, some arbitrageurs always receive funding, even in low information environments. Other arbitrageurs only receive funding in high information environments. The model predicts that arbitrageurs with stable funding should experience more mean reversion in returns, in particular following low performance. We test these predictions on a sample of hedge funds. Consistently with the model's implication, we find that hedge funds with lock-ups, or long redemption periods, tend to strongly over-perform, following low performance years.

Probabilities in Economic Modeling

Abstract: Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of belief formation may enhance our understanding of the probabilistic beliefs when these exist, and may also help up characterize situations in which entertaining such beliefs is neither realistic nor necessarily rational.