Showing papers by "International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis published in 2008"

How a century of ammonia synthesis changed the world

Abstract: On 13 October 1908, Fritz Haber filed his patent on the "synthesis of ammonia from its elements" for which he was later awarded the 1918 Nobel Prize in Chemistry. A hundred years on we live in a world transformed by and highly dependent upon Haber–Bosch nitrogen.

N 2 O release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels

Abstract: The relationship, on a global basis, between the amount of N fixed by chemical, biological or atmospheric processes entering the terrestrial biosphere, and the total emission of nitrous oxide (N2O), has been re-examined, us- ing known global atmospheric removal rates and concentra- tion growth of N2O as a proxy for overall emissions. For both the pre-industrial period and in recent times, after taking into account the large-scale changes in synthetic N fertiliser pro- duction, we find an overall conversion factor of 3-5% from newly fixed N to N 2O-N. We assume the same factor to be valid for biofuel production systems. It is covered only in part by the default conversion factor for "direct" emissions from agricultural crop lands (1%) estimated by IPCC (2006), and the default factors for the "indirect" emissions (follow- ing volatilization/deposition and leaching/runoff of N: 0.35- 0.45%) cited therein. However, as we show in the paper, when additional emissions included in the IPCC methodol- ogy, e.g. those from livestock production, are included, the total may not be inconsistent with that given by our "top- down" method. When the extra N2O emission from biofuel production is calculated in "CO2-equivalent" global warm- ing terms, and compared with the quasi-cooling effect of "saving" emissions of fossil fuel derived CO2, the outcome is that the production of commonly used biofuels, such as biodiesel from rapeseed and bioethanol from corn (maize), depending on N fertilizer uptake efficiency by the plants, can contribute as much or more to global warming by N2O emis- sions than cooling by fossil fuel savings. Crops with less N demand, such as grasses and woody coppice species, have more favourable climate impacts. This analysis only consid- ers the conversion of biomass to biofuel. It does not take into account the use of fossil fuel on the farms and for fertil- izer and pesticide production, but it also neglects the produc- tion of useful co-products. Both factors partially compensate each other. This needs to be analyzed in a full life cycle as- sessment.

The coming acceleration of global population ageing

Abstract: The future paths of population ageing result from specific combinations of declining fertility and increasing life expectancies in different parts of the world. Here we measure the speed of population ageing by using conventional measures and new ones that take changes in longevity into account for the world as a whole and for 13 major regions. We report on future levels of indicators of ageing and the speed at which they change. We show how these depend on whether changes in life expectancy are taken into account. We also show that the speed of ageing is likely to increase over the coming decades and to decelerate in most regions by mid-century. All our measures indicate a continuous ageing of the world's population throughout the century. The median age of the world's population increases from 26.6 years in 2000 to 37.3 years in 2050 and then to 45.6 years in 2100, when it is not adjusted for longevity increase. When increases in life expectancy are taken into account, the adjusted median age rises from 26.6 in 2000 to 31.1 in 2050 and only to 32.9 in 2100, slightly less than what it was in the China region in 2005. There are large differences in the regional patterns of ageing. In North America, the median age adjusted for life expectancy change falls throughout almost the entire century, whereas the conventional median age increases significantly. Our assessment of trends in ageing is based on new probabilistic population forecasts. The probability that growth in the world's population will end during this century is 88%, somewhat higher than previously assessed. After mid-century, lower rates of population growth are likely to coincide with slower rates of ageing.

Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation

Abstract: Tropical deforestation is estimated to cause about one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental services. United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change talks are now considering mechanisms for avoiding deforestation (AD), but the economic potential of AD has yet to be addressed. We use three economic models of global land use and management to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option. A program providing a 10% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 0.3–0.6 Gt (1 Gt = 1 × 105 g) CO2·yr−1 in emission reductions and would require $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion·yr−1 for 30 years. A 50% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 1.5–2.7 Gt CO2·yr−1 in emission reductions and would require $17.2 billion to $28.0 billion·yr−1. Finally, some caveats to the analysis that could increase costs of AD programs are described.

China: Emissions pattern of the world leader in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement production

Abstract: Release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuel combustion and cement manufacture is the primary anthropogenic driver of climate change. Our best estimate is that China became the largest national source of CO2 emissions during 2006. Previously, the United States (US) had occupied that position. However, the annual emission rate in the US has remained relatively stable between 2001-2006 while the emission rate in China has more than doubled, apparently eclipsing that of the US in late 2006. Here we present the seasonal and spatial pattern of CO2 emissions in China, as well as the sectoral breakdown of emissions. Though our best point estimate places China in the lead position in terms of CO2 emissions, we qualify this statement in a discussion of the uncertainty in the underlying data (3-5% for the US; 15-20% for China). Finally, we comment briefly on the implications of China's new position with respect to international agreements to mitigate climate

Perceptions of climate risk in Mozambique: Implications for the success of adaptation strategies

Abstract: Policies to promote adaptation climate risks often rely on the willing cooperation of the intended beneficiaries. If these beneficiaries disagree with policy makers and program managers about the need for adaptation, or the effectiveness of the measures they are being asked to undertake, then implementation of the policies will fail. A case study of a resettlement program in Mozambique shows this to be the case. Farmers and policy makers disagreed about the seriousness of climate risks, and the potential negative consequences of proposed adaptive measures. A project to provide more information about climate change to farmers did not change their beliefs. The results highlight the need for active dialog across stakeholder groups, as a necessary condition for formulating policies that can then be successfully implemented.

Fertility trends by social status

Abstract: This article discusses how fertility relates to social status with the use of a new dataset, several times larger than the ones used so far. The status-fertility relation is investigated over several centuries, across world regions and by the type of status-measure. The study reveals that as fertility declines, there is a general shift from a positive to a negative or neutral status-fertility relation. Those with high income/wealth or high occupation/social class switch from having relatively many to fewer or the same number of children as others. Education, however, depresses fertility for as long as this relation is observed (from early in the 20th century).

Natural disasters as creative destruction? Evidence from developing countries

Abstract: Recent studies found a robust positive correlation between the frequency of natural disasters and the long-run economic growth after conditioning for other determinants. This result is interpreted as evidence that disasters provide opportunities to update the capital stock and adopt new technologies, thus acting as some type of Schumpeterian creative destruction. The results of cross-country and panel data regressions indicate that the degree of catastrophic risk tends to have a negative effect on the volume of knowledge spillovers between industrialized and developing countries. Only countries with relatively high levels of development benefit from capital upgrading through trade after a natural catastrophe. (JEL O13, O30, F18)

Global phosphorus flows and environmental impacts from a consumption perspective

Abstract: Human activities have significantly intensified natural phosphorus cycles, which has resulted in some serious environmental problems that modern societies face today. This article attempts to quantify the global phosphorus flows associated with present day mining, farming, animal feeding, and household consumption. Various physical characteristics of the related phosphorus fluxes as well as their environmental impacts in different economies, including the United States, European countries, and China, are examined. Particular attention is given to the global phosphorus budget in cropland and the movement and transformation of phosphorus in soil, because these phosphorus flows, in association with the farming sector, constitute major fluxes that dominate the anthropogenic phosphorus cycle. The results show that the global input of phosphorus to cropland, in both inorganic and organic forms from various sources, cannot compensate for the removal in harvests and in the losses by erosion and runoff. A net loss of phosphorus from the world's cropland is estimated at about 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) phosphorus each year, nearly one half of the phosphorus extracted yearly.

The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis: Forces that May Lead to Further Postponement and Fewer Births in Europe

Abstract: This paper starts from the assessment that there is no good theory in the social sciences that would tell us whether fertility in low-fertility countries is likely to recover in the future, stay around its current level or continue to fall. This question is key to the discussion whether or not governments should take action aimed at influencing the fertility rate. To enhance the scholarly discussion in this field, the paper introduces a clearly defined hypothesis which describes plausible self-reinforcing mechanisms that would result, if unchecked, in a continued decrease of the number of births in the countries affected. This hypothesis has three components: a demographic one based on the negative population growth momentum, i.e., the fact that fewer potential mothers in the future will result in fewer births; a sociological one based on the assumption that ideal family size for the younger cohorts is declining as a consequence of the lower actual fertility they see in previous cohorts; and an economic one based on the first part of Easterlin's (1980) relative income hypothesis, namely, that fertility results from the combination of aspirations and expected income, and assuming that aspirations of young adults are on an increasing trajectory while the expected income for the younger cohorts declines, partly as a consequence of population ageing induced by low fertility. All three factors would work towards a downward spiral in births in the future. If there is reason to assume that such mechanisms will indeed be at work, then this should strengthen the motivation of governments to take immediate action (possibly through policies addressing the tempo effect) in order to still escape from the expected trap.

The Demography of Educational Attainment and Economic Growth

Abstract: Complementing primary education with secondary education in broad segments of the population is likely to give a strong boost to economic growth.

A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change

Abstract: article i nfo Hunger knows no boundaries or borders. While much research has focused on undernutrition on a national scale, this report evaluates it at subnational levels for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to pinpoint hotspots where the greatest challenges exist. Undernutrition is assessed with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes by investigating anthropometric data on weight and length of individuals. The impact of climate change on production of six major crops (cassava, maize, wheat, sorghum, rice and millet) is analyzed with a GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (GEPIC) model with the same spatial resolution. Future hotspots of hunger are projected in the context of the anticipated climate, social, economic, and bio-physical changes. The results show that some regions in northern and southwestern Nigeria, Sudan and Angola with a currently high number of people with undernutrition might be able to improve their food security situation mainly through increasing purchasing power. In the near future, regions located in Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, southwestern Niger, and Madagascar are likely to remain hotspots of food insecurity, while regions located in Tanzania, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo might face more serious undernutrition. It is likely that both the groups of regions will suffer from lower capacity of importing food as well as lower per capita calorie availability, while the latter group will probably have sharper reduction in per capita calorie availability. Special attention must be paid to the hotspot areas in order to meet the hunger alleviation goals in SSA.

Evolutionary consequences of fishing and their implications for salmon.

Abstract: We review the evidence for fisheries-induced evolution in anadromous salmonids. Salmon are exposed to a variety of fishing gears and intensities as immature or maturing individuals. We evaluate the evidence that fishing is causing evolutionary changes to traits including body size, migration timing and age of maturation, and we discuss the implications for fisheries and conservation. Few studies have fully evaluated the ingredients of fisheries-induced evolution: selection intensity, genetic variability, correlation among traits under selection, and response to selection. Most studies are limited in their ability to separate genetic responses from phenotypic plasticity, and environmental change complicates interpretation. However, strong evidence for selection intensity and for genetic variability in salmon fitness traits indicates that fishing can cause detectable evolution within ten or fewer generations. Evolutionary issues are therefore meaningful considerations in salmon fishery management. Evolutionary biologists have rarely been involved in the development of salmon fishing policy, yet evolutionary biology is relevant to the long-term success of fisheries. Future management might consider fishing policy to (i) allow experimental testing of evolutionary responses to exploitation and (ii) improve the long-term sustainability of the fishery by mitigating unfavorable evolutionary responses to fishing. We provide suggestions for how this might be done.

Identifying and quantifying uncertainty and spatial disagreement in the comparison of Global Land Cover for different applications

Abstract: This paper provides a methodology for comparing global land cover maps that allows for differences in legend definitions between products to be taken into account. The legends of the two maps are first reconciled by creating a legend lookup table that shows how the legends map onto one another. Where there is overlap, the specific definitions for each legend class are used to calculate the degree of overlap between legend classes. In this way, one-to-many mappings are accounted for unlike in most methods where the legend definitions are often forced into place. Another advantage over previous map comparison methods is that application-specific requirements are captured using expert input, whereby the user rates the importance of disagreement between different legend classes based on the needs of the application. This user-defined matrix in conjunction with the degree of overlap between legend classes is applied on a pixel-by-pixel basis to create maps of spatial disagreement and uncertainty. The user can then highlight the areas of highest thematic uncertainty and disagreement between the different land cover maps allowing for areas that require further detailed examination to be readily identified. It would also be possible for several users to input their knowledge into the process, leading to a potentially more robust comparison of land cover products. The methodology of map comparison is illustrated using different land cover products including Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC-2000) and the MODIS land cover data set. Two diverse applications are provided including the estimation of global forest cover and monitoring of agricultural land. In the case of global forest cover, an example was provided for Columbia, which showed that the MODIS land cover map overestimates forest cover in comparison with the GLC-2000. The agricultural example, on the other hand, served to illustrate that for Sudan, MODIS tends to underestimate crop areas while GLC-2000 overestimates them.

Simulating effects of land use changes on carbon fluxes: Past contributions to atmospheric CO2 increases and future commitments due to losses of terrestrial sink capacity

Abstract: The impact of land use on the global carbon cycle and climate is assessed. The Bern carbon cycle-climate model was used with land use maps from HYDE3.0 for 1700 to 2000 A.D. and from post-SRES scenarios for this century. Cropland and pasture expansion each cause about half of the simulated net carbon emissions of 188 Gt C over the industrial period and 1.1 Gt C yr -1 in the 1990s, implying a residual terrestrial sink of 113 Gt C and of 1.8 Gt C yr -1 , respectively. Direct CO 2 emissions due to land conversion as simulated in book-keeping models dominate carbon fluxes due to land use in the past. They are, however, mitigated by 25% through the feedback of increased atmospheric CO 2 stimulating uptake. CO 2 stimulated sinks are largely lost when natural lands are converted. Past land use change has eliminated potential future carbon sinks equivalent to emissions of 80–150 Gt C over this century. They represent a commitment of past land use change, which accounts for 70% of the future land use flux in the scenarios considered. Pre-industrial land use emissions are estimated to 45 Gt C at most, implying a maximum change in Holocene atmospheric CO 2 of 3 ppm. This is not compatible with the hypothesis that early anthropogenic CO 2 emissions prevented a new glacial period. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2008.00340.x

Health risks of ozone from long-range transboundary air pollution.

Abstract: Ozone is a highly oxidative compound formed in the lower atmosphere from gases (originating to a large extent from anthropogenic sources) by photochemistry driven by solar radiation. Owing to its highly reactive chemical properties, ozone is harmful to vegetation, materials and human health. In the troposphere, ozone is also an efficient greenhouse gas. This report summarizes the results of a multidisciplinary analysis aiming to assess the effects of ozone on health. The analysis indicates that ozone pollution affects the health of most of the populations of Europe, leading to a wide range of health problems. The effects include some 21 000 premature deaths annually in 25 European Union countries on and after days with high ozone levels. Current policies are insufficient to significantly reduce ozone levels in Europe and their impact in the next decade

Vertical Structure, Biomass and Topographic Association of Deep-Pelagic Fishes in Relation to a Mid-Ocean Ridge System

Abstract: The assemblage structure and vertical distribution of deep-pelagic fishes relative to a mid-ocean ridge system are described from an acoustic and discrete-depth trawling survey conducted as part of the international Census of Marine Life field project MAR-ECO 〈 http://www.mar-eco.no 〉. The 36-station, zig-zag survey along the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR; Iceland to the Azores) covered the full depth range (0 to >3000 m), from the surface to near the bottom, using a combination of gear types to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the pelagic fauna. Abundance per volume of deep-pelagic fishes was highest in the epipelagic zone and within the benthic boundary layer (BBL; 0–200 m above the seafloor). Minimum fish abundance occurred at depths below 2300 m but above the BBL. Biomass per volume of deep-pelagic fishes over the MAR reached a maximum within the BBL, revealing a previously unknown topographic association of a bathypelagic fish assemblage with a mid-ocean ridge system. With the exception of the BBL, biomass per volume reached a water column maximum in the bathypelagic zone between 1500 and 2300 m. This stands in stark contrast to the general “open-ocean” paradigm that biomass decreases exponentially from the surface downwards. As much of the summit of the MAR extends into this depth layer, a likely explanation for this mid-water maximum is ridge association. Multivariate statistical analyses suggest that the dominant component of deep-pelagic fish biomass over the northern MAR was a wide-ranging bathypelagic assemblage that was remarkably consistent along the length of the ridge from Iceland to the Azores. Integrating these results with those of previous studies in oceanic ecosystems, there appears to be adequate evidence to conclude that special hydrodynamic and biotic features of mid-ocean ridge systems cause changes in the ecological structure of deep-pelagic fish assemblages relative to those at the same depths over abyssal plains. Lacking terrigenous input of allochthonous organic carbon, increased demersal fish diversity and biomass over the MAR relative to the abyssal plains may be maintained by increased bathypelagic food resources. The aggregation of bathypelagic fishes with MAR topographic features was primarily a large adult phenomenon. Considering the immense areal extent of mid-ocean ridge systems globally, this strategy may have significant trophic transfer and reproductive benefits for deep-pelagic fish populations.

Optimal location of wood gasification plants for methanol production with heat recovery

Abstract: Second generation biofuels from wood gasification are thought to become competitive in the face of effective climate and energy security policies. Cost competitiveness crucially depends on the opti ...

Global Phosphorus Flows in the Industrial Economy From a Production Perspective

Abstract: Human activity has quadrupled the mobilization of phosphorus (P), a nonrenewable resource that is not fully recycled biologically or industrially. P is accumulated in both water and solid waste due to fertilizer application and industrial, agricultural, and animal P consumption. This paper characterizes the industrial flows, which, although smaller than the agricultural and animal flows, are an important phosphorus source contributing to the pollution of surface waters. We present the quantification of the network of flows as constrained by mass balances of the global annual metabolism of phosphorus, based on global consumption for 2004, all of which eventually ends up as waste and in the soil and water systems. We find that on a yearly basis, 18.9 million metric tons (MMT) of P is produced, of which close to 75% goes to fertilizer and the rest to industrial and others uses. Phosphoric acid is the precursor for many of the intermediate and end uses of phosphate compounds described in this study and accounts for almost 80% of all P consumed. Eventually, all of the P goes to waste: 18.5 MMT ends up in the soil as solid waste, and 1.32 MMT is emissions to air and water. Besides quantifying P flows through our economy, we also consider some possible measures that could be taken to increase the degree of recovery and optimization of this resource and others that are closely related, such as the recovery of sulfur from gypsum and wastewater (sludge), and fluorine from wet phosphoric acid production.

Adaptive dynamics for physiologically structured population models

Abstract: We develop a systematic toolbox for analyzing the adaptive dynamics of multidimensional traits in physiologically structured population models with point equilibria (sensu Dieckmann et al. in Theor. Popul. Biol. 63:309-338, 2003). Firstly, we show how the canonical equation of adaptive dynamics (Dieckmann and Law in J. Math. Biol. 34:579-612, 1996), an approximation for the rate of evolutionary change in characters under directional selection, can be extended so as to apply to general physiologically structured population models with multiple birth states. Secondly, we show that the invasion fitness function (up to and including second order terms, in the distances of the trait vectors to the singularity) for a community of N coexisting types near an evolutionarily singular point has a rational form, which is model-independent in the following sense: the form depends on the strategies of the residents and the invader, and on the second order partial derivatives of the one-resident fitness function at the singular point. This normal form holds for Lotka-Volterra models as well as for physiologically structured population models with multiple birth states, in discrete as well as continuous time and can thus be considered universal for the evolutionary dynamics in the neighbourhood of singular points. Only in the case of one-dimensional trait spaces or when N = 1 can the normal form be reduced to a Taylor polynomial. Lastly we show, in the form of a stylized recipe, how these results can be combined into a systematic approach for the analysis of the (large) class of evolutionary models that satisfy the above restrictions.

Uncertainties in accounting for CO2 from fossil fuels

Abstract: Marland and colleagues (1999) conducted a comparison of two large, “(partially) independent” efforts to estimate national emissions of CO2. . . . The two estimates for the United States differed by only 0.9%, but the absolute value of this difference was greater than total emissions from 147 of the 195 countries analyzed. the atmosphere, countries and companies analyze CO2 emissions and trade emissions permits, and individuals try to be environmentally sensitive. It is not surprising that there is a need to estimate emissions and to understand the accuracy of these estimates. There has been considerable discussion about the challenges of measuring carbon sources and sinks in the biosphere, but there has been less recognition that emissions from fossil-fuel combustion are also subject to uncertainty. How accurate are CO2 emissions estimates, and how accurate do they need to be? Can we measure the emissions from fossil-fuel combustion well enough to understand their implications for the global carbon cycle, to know whether a country that agrees to reduce emissions by x% has achieved its goal, or to be sure that a company that buys permits to offset its emissions has received what it paid for? CO2emissions are actually measured in only a few places, and then with still considerable

Rebuilding the eastern baltic cod stock under environmental change–a preliminary approach using stock, environmental, and management constraints

Abstract: The population dynamics of the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.), unlike many other stocks, shows a strong dependency on environmental conditions. To test the implications of different management policies on the stock and the fishery in a system of global environmental change, we apply a spatially disaggregated, discrete time, age-structured model of the Eastern Baltic cod stock in 50 year simulation analyses. The simulation provides an analysis of stock, yield, and revenue development under various management policies and environmental scenarios. The policy analysis, focusing on different regulations of fishing mortality, is embedded into three environmental scenarios, assuming low, medium, or high climate and environmental change. The environmental assumptions are based on simulation results from a coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model, which project salinity in the Baltic Sea to decrease by 7-47% in the period 2071-2100 relative to the reference period 1961-1990. Our simulation results show that a significant reduction in fishing mortality is necessary for achieving high long-term economic yields. Moreover, under the presented environmental scenarios, a stock collapse cannot be prevented. It can, however, be postponed by the establishment of a marine reserve in ICES subdivision 25.

Managing the inconceivable: participatory assessments of impacts and responses to extreme climate change

Abstract: A comprehensive understanding of the implications of extreme climate change requires an in-depth exploration of the perceptions and reactions of the affected stakeholder groups and the lay public. The project on "Atlantic sea level rise: Adaptation to imaginable worst-case climate change" (Atlantis) has studied one such case, the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and a subsequent 5-6 m sea-level rise. Possible methods are presented for assessing the societal consequences of impacts and adaptation options in selected European regions by involving representatives of pertinent stakeholders. Results of a comprehensive review of participatory integrated assessment methods with a view to their applicability in climate impact studies are summarized including Simulation-Gaming techniques, the Policy Exercise method, and the Focus Group technique. Succinct presentations of these three methods are provided together with short summaries of relevant earlier applications to gain insights into the possible design options. Building on these insights, four basic versions of design procedures suitable for use in the Atlantis project are presented. They draw on design elements of several methods and combine them to fit the characteristics and fulfill the needs of addressing the problem of extreme sea-level rise. The selected participatory techniques and the procedure designs might well be useful in other studies assessing climate change impacts and exploring adaptation options.