Journal ArticleDOI
Adaptation to climate change through the choice of cropping system and sowing date in sub-Saharan Africa
Katharina Waha,Christoph Müller,Alberte Bondeau,Alberte Bondeau,Jan Philipp Dietrich,Pradeep Kurukulasuriya,Jens Heinke,Jens Heinke,Hermann Lotze-Campen +8 more
TLDR
In this article, the authors identify the traditional sequential cropping systems in ten sub-Saharan African countries from a survey dataset of more than 8600 households and compare six different management scenarios and test their susceptibility as adaptation measure to climate change using the dynamic global vegetation model.Abstract:
Multiple cropping systems provide more harvest security for farmers, allow for crop intensification and furthermore influence ground cover, soil erosion, albedo, soil chemical properties, pest infestation and the carbon sequestration potential. We identify the traditional sequential cropping systems in ten sub-Saharan African countries from a survey dataset of more than 8600 households. We find that at least one sequential cropping system is traditionally used in 35% of all administrative units in the dataset, mainly including maize or groundnuts. We compare six different management scenarios and test their susceptibility as adaptation measure to climate change using the dynamic global vegetation model for managed land LPJmL. Aggregated mean crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa decrease by 6–24% due to climate change depending on the climate scenario and the management strategy. As an exception, some traditional sequential cropping systems in Kenya and South Africa gain by at least 25%. The crop yield decrease is typically weakest in sequential cropping systems and if farmers adapt the sowing date to changing climatic conditions. Crop calorific yields in single cropping systems only reach 40–55% of crop calorific yields obtained in sequential cropping systems at the end of the 21st century. The farmers’ choice of adequate crops, cropping systems and sowing dates can be an important adaptation strategy to climate change and these management options should be considered in climate change impact studies on agriculture.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions
Olivia Serdeczny,Sophie Adams,Florent Baarsch,Dim Coumou,Alexander Robinson,Alexander Robinson,William Hare,Michiel Schaeffer,Mahé Perrette,Julia Reinhardt +9 more
TL;DR: In this article, climate change projections for this region point to a warming trend, particularly in the inland subtropics; frequent occurrence of extreme heat events; increasing aridity; and changes in rainfall, with a particularly pronounced decline in southern Africa and an increase in East Africa.
Journal ArticleDOI
Brief History of Agricultural Systems Modeling
James W. Jones,John M. Antle,Bruno Basso,Kenneth J. Boote,Richard T. Conant,Ian Foster,H. Charles J. Godfray,Mario Herrero,Richard E. Howitt,Sander Janssen,Brian Keating,Rafael Muñoz-Carpena,Cheryl H. Porter,Cynthia Rosenzweig,Tim Wheeler +14 more
TL;DR: The history of agricultural systems modeling is summarized and lessons learned are identified that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein
Senthold Asseng,Pierre Martre,Andrea Maiorano,Reimund P. Rötter,Garry O'Leary,Glenn J. Fitzgerald,Christine Girousse,Rosella Motzo,Francesco Giunta,M. Ali Babar,Matthew P. Reynolds,Ahmed M. S. Kheir,Peter J. Thorburn,Katharina Waha,Alex C. Ruane,Pramod K. Aggarwal,Mukhtar Ahmed,Mukhtar Ahmed,Juraj Balkovic,Juraj Balkovic,Bruno Basso,Christian Biernath,Marco Bindi,Davide Cammarano,Andrew J. Challinor,Andrew J. Challinor,Giacomo De Sanctis,Benjamin Dumont,Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei,Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei,Elias Fereres,Roberto Ferrise,Margarita Garcia-Vila,Sebastian Gayler,Yujing Gao,Heidi Horan,Gerrit Hoogenboom,R. Cesar Izaurralde,R. Cesar Izaurralde,Mohamed Jabloun,Curtis D. Jones,Belay T. Kassie,Kurt Christian Kersebaum,Christian Klein,Ann-Kristin Koehler,Bing Liu,Bing Liu,Sara Minoli,Manuel Montesino San Martin,Christoph Müller,Soora Naresh Kumar,Claas Nendel,Jørgen E. Olesen,Taru Palosuo,John R. Porter,John R. Porter,John R. Porter,Eckart Priesack,Dominique Ripoche,Mikhail A. Semenov,Claudio O. Stöckle,Pierre Stratonovitch,Thilo Streck,Iwan Supit,Fulu Tao,Marijn van der Velde,Daniel Wallach,Enli Wang,Heidi Webber,Joost Wolf,Liujun Xiao,Zhao Zhang,Zhigan Zhao,Zhigan Zhao,Yan Zhu,Frank Ewert +75 more
TL;DR: A 32-multi-model ensemble is tested and applied to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate to potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050, likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change, food security, and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa
TL;DR: In this article, a conceptualization of the relationships among the three themes and how food security vulnerabilities are related to multiple stresses and adaptive capacities, reflecting access to assets is presented, which can help in the development of more effective policies and programs.
Journal ArticleDOI
Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Its Mitigation Strategies: A Review
TL;DR: This article reviewed the information collected through the literature regarding the issue of climate change, its possible causes, its projection in the near future, its impact on the agriculture sector as an influence on physiological and metabolic activities of plants, and its potential and reported implications for growth and plant productivity, pest infestation, and mitigation strategies and their economic impact.
References
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Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
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Individual Comparisons by Ranking Methods
TL;DR: The comparison of two treatments generally falls into one of the following two categories: (a) a number of replications for each of the two treatments, which are unpaired, or (b) we may have a series of paired comparisons, some of which may be positive and some negative as mentioned in this paper.
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Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
Book
Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.