Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate : Results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner,Esther C. Brady,Anni Zhao,Chris Brierley,Yarrow Axford,Emilie Capron,Aline Govin,Jeremy S. Hoffman,Jeremy S. Hoffman,Elizabeth B. Isaacs,Masa Kageyama,Paolo Scussolini,Polychronis C Tzedakis,Charles Williams,Eric W. Wolff,Ayako Abe-Ouchi,Pascale Braconnot,Silvana Ramos Buarque,Jian Cao,Anne de Vernal,Maria-Vittoria Guarino,Chuncheng Guo,Allegra N. LeGrande,Gerrit Lohmann,Katrin J. Meissner,Laurie Menviel,Polina Morozova,Kerim H. Nisancioglu,Kerim H. Nisancioglu,Ryouta O'ishi,David Salas y Mélia,Xaoxu Shi,Marie Sicard,Louise C. Sime,Christian Stepanek,Robert A. Tomas,Evgeny Volodin,Nicholas K. H. Yeung,Qiong Zhang,Zhongshi Zhang,Zhongshi Zhang,Weipeng Zheng +41 more
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TLDR
In this paper, a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments, is presented.Abstract:
The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka.
New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions.
The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.read more
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Simulating the mid-Holocene, last interglacial and mid-Pliocene climate with EC-Earth3-LR
Qiong Zhang,Ellen Berntell,Josefine Axelsson,Jie Chen,Jie Chen,Zixuan Han,Wesley de Nooijer,Zhengyao Lu,Qiang Li,Qiang Zhang,Klaus Wyser,Shuting Yang +11 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the PMIP4 experiments with EC-Earth3-LR were used to compare the model's ability to capture the climate response under different climate forcings, providing potential implications for confidence in future projections.
Journal ArticleDOI
PMIP4 experiments using MIROC-ES2L Earth system model
Rumi Ohgaito,Akitomo Yamamoto,Tomohiro Hajima,Ryouta O'ishi,Manabu Abe,Hiroaki Tatebe,Ayako Abe-Ouchi,Ayako Abe-Ouchi,Ayako Abe-Ouchi,Michio Kawamiya +9 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used the Model forInterdisciplinary Research on Climate, Earth System version 2 for Long-term simulations (MIROC-ES2L), which is an Earth system model.
Journal ArticleDOI
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences
Masa Kageyama,Louise C. Sime,Marie Sicard,Maria-Vittoria Guarino,Anne de Vernal,Ruediger Stein,Ruediger Stein,David Schroeder,Irene Malmierca-Vallet,Ayako Abe-Ouchi,Cecilia M. Bitz,Pascale Braconnot,Esther C. Brady,Jian Cao,Matthew A. Chamberlain,Daniel Feltham,Chuncheng Guo,Allegra N. LeGrande,Gerrit Lohmann,Katrin J. Meissner,Laurie Menviel,Polina Morozova,Kerim H. Nisancioglu,Kerim H. Nisancioglu,Bette L. Otto-Bliesner,Ryouta O'ishi,Silvana Ramos Buarque,David Salas y Mélia,Sam Sherriff-Tadano,Julienne Stroeve,Xiaoxu Shi,Bo Sun,Robert A. Tomas,Evgeny Volodin,Nicholas K. H. Yeung,Qiong Zhang,Zhongshi Zhang,Zhongshi Zhang,Weipeng Zheng,Tilo Ziehn +39 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice were analyzed and compared to the results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMP).
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A multi-model CMIP6 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences
Louise C. Sime,Masa Kageyama,Marie Sicard,Maria-Vittoria Guarino,Anne de Vernal,David Schroeder,Ruediger Stein,Irene Malmierca-Vallet +7 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the results from 12 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice were compared in the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and the results showed that the mean pre-industrial to LIG reduction in minimum sea ice area (SIA) reached 59% (multi-model mean LIG area is 2.21 mill. km2, compared to 5.85 mill. mm km2 for the PI).
Drivers of the evolution and amplitude of African Humid Periods
Laurie Menviel,Aline Govin,Arthur Avenas,Arthur Avenas,Katrin J. Meissner,Katharine M. Grant,Polychronis C Tzedakis +6 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a series of transient simulations of the penultimate deglaciation and last interglacial period was used to compare the results with a transient simulation of the Holocene and Holocene, and they found that the strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at the end of deglacial millennial-scale events exerts a dominant control on the abrupt initiation of African Humid Periods as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation modulates the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
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TL;DR: In Northern Europe, the Eemian saw dramatic climatic shifts, linked to changes in Earth’s orbit and North Atlantic oceanic circulation, leading to an oceanic Late-Eemian climate, consistent with an earlier hypothesis of glacial inception in Europe.
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