Open University of Catalonia

About: Open University of Catalonia is a education organization based out in Barcelona, Spain. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Context (language use) & Higher education. The organization has 1943 authors who have published 4646 publications receiving 64200 citations. The organization is also known as: Universitat Oberta de Catalunya & UOC.

Why So Many Published Sensitivity Analyses Are False. A Systematic Review of Sensitivity Analysis Practices

Abstract: Sensitivity analysis (SA) has much to offer for a very large class of applications, such as model selection, calibration, optimization, quality assurance and many others. Sensitivity analysis offers crucial contextual information regarding a prediction by answering the question "Which uncertain input factors are responsible for the uncertainty in the prediction?" SA is distinct from uncertainty analysis (UA), which instead addresses the question "How uncertain is the prediction?" As we discuss in the present paper much confusion exists in the use of these terms. A proper uncertainty analysis of the output of a mathematical model needs to map what the model does when the input factors are left free to vary over their range of existence. A fortiori, this is true of a sensitivity analysis. Despite this, most UA and SA still explore the input space; moving along mono-dimensional corridors which leave the space of variation of the input factors mostly unscathed. We use results from a bibliometric analysis to show that many published SA fail the elementary requirement to properly explore the space of the input factors. The results, while discipline-dependent, point to a worrying lack of standards and of recognized good practices. The misuse of sensitivity analysis in mathematical modelling is at least as serious as the misuse of the p-test in statistical modelling. Mature methods have existed for about two decades to produce a defensible sensitivity analysis. We end by offering a rough guide for proper use of the methods.

On the use of Monte Carlo simulation, cache and splitting techniques to improve the Clarke and Wright savings heuristics

Abstract: This paper presents the SR-GCWS-CS probabilistic algorithm that combines Monte Carlo simulation with splitting techniques and the Clarke and Wright savings heuristic to find competitive quasi-optimal solutions to the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP) in reasonable response times. The algorithm, which does not require complex fine-tuning processes, can be used as an alternative to other metaheuristics—such as Simulated Annealing, Tabu Search, Genetic Algorithms, Ant Colony Optimization or GRASP, which might be more difficult to implement and which might require non-trivial fine-tuning processes—when solving CVRP instances. As discussed in the paper, the probabilistic approach presented here aims to provide a relatively simple and yet flexible algorithm which benefits from: (a) the use of the geometric distribution to guide the random search process, and (b) efficient cache and splitting techniques that contribute to significantly reduce computational times. The algorithm is validated through a set of CVRP standard benchmarks and competitive results are obtained in all tested cases. Future work regarding the use of parallel programming to efficiently solve large-scale CVRP instances is discussed. Finally, it is important to notice that some of the principles of the approach presented here might serve as a base to develop similar algorithms for other routing and scheduling combinatorial problems.