Evaluation of the AR4 Climate Models’ Simulated Daily Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature, and Precipitation over Australia Using Probability Density Functions

TLDR: The coupled climate models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are evaluated in this paper, focusing on 12 regions of Australia for the daily simulation of precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature.

Abstract: The coupled climate models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are evaluated The evaluation is focused on 12 regions of Australia for the daily simulation of precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature The evaluation is based on probability density functions and a simple quantitative measure of how well each climate model can capture the observed probability density functions for each variable and each region is introduced Across all three variables, the coupled climate models perform better than expected Precipitation is simulated reasonably by most and very well by a small number of models, although the problem with excessive drizzle is apparent in most models Averaged over Australia, 3 of the 14 climate models capture more than 80% of the observed probability density functions for precipitation Minimum temperature is simulated well, with 10 of the 13 climate models capturing more than 80% of the observed probability densit