Global energy sector emission reductions and bioenergy use: overview of the bioenergy demand phase of the EMF-33 model comparison
Nico Bauer,Steven K. Rose,Shinichiro Fujimori,Shinichiro Fujimori,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Detlef P. van Vuuren,John P. Weyant,Marshall Wise,Yiyun Cui,Vassilis Daioglou,Matthew Gidden,Etsushi Kato,Alban Kitous,Florian Leblanc,Ronald D. Sands,Fuminori Sano,Jessica Strefler,Junichi Tsutsui,Ruben Bibas,Oliver Fricko,Tomoko Hasegawa,David Klein,Atsushi Kurosawa,Silvana Mima,Matteo Muratori +24 more
TLDR
In this paper, the authors present an overview of results from 11 integrated assessment models that participated in the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-33) on the viability of large-scale deployment of bioenergy for achieving long-run climate goals.Abstract:
We present an overview of results from 11 integrated assessment models (IAMs) that participated in the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-33) on the viability of large-scale deployment of bioenergy for achieving long-run climate goals. The study explores future bioenergy use across models under harmonized scenarios for future climate policies, availability of bioenergy technologies, and constraints on biomass supply. This paper provides a more transparent description of IAMs that span a broad range of assumptions regarding model structures, energy sectors, and bioenergy conversion chains. Without emission constraints, we find vastly different CO2 emission and bioenergy deployment patterns across models due to differences in competition with fossil fuels, the possibility to produce large-scale bio-liquids, and the flexibility of energy systems. Imposing increasingly stringent carbon budgets mostly increases bioenergy use. A diverse set of available bioenergy technology portfolios provides flexibility to allocate bioenergy to supply different final energy as well as remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by combining bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS). Sector and regional bioenergy allocation varies dramatically across models mainly due to bioenergy technology availability and costs, final energy patterns, and availability of alternative decarbonization options. Although much bioenergy is used in combination with CCS, BECCS is not necessarily the driver of bioenergy use. We find that the flexibility to use biomass feedstocks in different energy sub-sectors makes large-scale bioenergy deployment a robust strategy in mitigation scenarios that is surprisingly insensitive with respect to reduced technology availability. However, the achievability of stringent carbon budgets and associated carbon prices is sensitive. Constraints on biomass feedstock supply increase the carbon price less significantly than excluding BECCS because carbon removals are still realized and valued. Incremental sensitivity tests find that delayed readiness of bioenergy technologies until 2050 is more important than potentially higher investment costs.read more
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Impacts of 1.5°C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg,Daniela Jacob,Marco Bindi,Sally Brown,I. A. Camilloni,Arona Diedhiou,Riyanti Djalante,Kristie L. Ebi,Francois Engelbrecht,Joel Guiot,Yasuaki Hijioka,S. Mehrotra,Antony J. Payne,Sonia I. Seneviratne,Adelle Thomas,Rachel Warren,G. Zhou,Sharina Abdul Halim,Michelle Achlatis,Lisa V. Alexander,Myles R. Allen,Peter Berry,Christopher Boyer,Edward Byers,Lorenzo Brilli,Marcos Silveira Buckeridge,William W. L. Cheung,Marlies Craig,Neville Ellis,Jason P. Evans,Hubertus Fischer,Klaus Fraedrich,Sabine Fuss,Anjani Ganase,Jean-Pierre Gattuso,Peter Greve,Tania Guillén Bolaños,Naota Hanasaki,Tomoko Hasegawa,Katie Hayes,Annette L. Hirsch,Chris D. Jones,Thomas Jung,Markku Kanninen,Gerhard Krinner,David M. Lawrence,Timothy M. Lenton,Debora Ley,Diana Liverman,Natalie M. Mahowald,Kathleen L. McInnes,Katrin J. Meissner,Richard J. Millar,Katja Mintenbeck,Daniel M. Mitchell,Alan C. Mix,Dirk Notz,Leonard Nurse,Andrew Emmanuel Okem,Lennart Olsson,Michael Oppenheimer,Shlomit Paz,Juliane Petersen,Jan Petzold,Swantje Preuschmann,Mohammad Feisal Rahman,Joeri Rogelj,Hanna Scheuffele,Carl-Friedrich Schleussner,Daniel Scott,Roland Séférian,Jana Sillmann,Chandni Singh,Raphael Slade,Kimberly Stephenson,Tannecia S. Stephenson,Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla,Mark Tebboth,Petra Tschakert,Robert Vautard,Richard Wartenburger,Michael Wehner,Nora Marie Weyer,Felicia S. Whyte,Gary W. Yohe,Xuebin Zhang,Robert B. Zougmoré +86 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a survey of women's sportswriters in South Africa and Ivory Coast, including: Marco Bindi (Italy), Sally Brown (UK), Ines Camilloni (Argentina), Arona Diedhiou (Ivory Coast/Senegal), Riyanti Djalante (Japan/Indonesia), Kristie L. Ebi (USA), Francois Engelbrecht (South Africa), Joel Guiot (France), Yasuaki Hijioka (Japan), Shagun Mehrotra (USA/India), Ant
Strengthening and Implementing the Global Response
Heleen de Coninck,Aromar Revi,Mustafa H.M. Babiker,Paolo Bertoldi,Marcos Silveira Buckeridge,A. Cartwright,W. Dong,James D. Ford,Sabine Fuss,Jean Charles Hourcade,Debora Ley,Reinhard Mechler,Peter Newman,A. Revokatova,Seth Schultz,Linda Steg,T. Sugiyama +16 more
TL;DR: The feasibility of mitigation and adaptation options, and the enabling conditions for strengthening and implementing the systemic changes, are assessed in this article, where the authors consider the global response to warming of 1.5oC comprises transitions in land and ecosystem, energy, urban and infrastructure, and industrial systems.
Journal ArticleDOI
Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5 °C world
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used a global energy system model to assess the amount of fossil fuels that would need to be left in the ground, regionally and globally, to allow for a 50 per cent probability of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
Journal ArticleDOI
GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems
Katherine Calvin,Pralit Patel,Leon Clarke,Ghassem R. Asrar,Ben Bond-Lamberty,Ryna Yiyun Cui,Alan Di Vittorio,Kalyn Dorheim,Jae Edmonds,Corinne Hartin,Mohamad Hejazi,Russell Horowitz,Gokul Iyer,Page Kyle,Sonny Kim,Robert Link,Haewon McJeon,Steven J. Smith,Abigail Snyder,Stephanie Waldhoff,Marshall Wise +20 more
TL;DR: GCAM v5.1 as discussed by the authors is a market equilibrium model, is global in scope, and operates from 1990 to 2100 in 5-year time steps, which can be used to examine, for example, how changes in population, income, or technology cost might alter crop production, energy demand, or water withdrawals, or changes in one region's demand for energy affect energy, water, and land in other regions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies
Gunnar Luderer,Michaja Pehl,Anders Arvesen,Thomas Gibon,Benjamin Leon Bodirsky,Harmen Sytze de Boer,Oliver Fricko,Mohamad Hejazi,Florian Humpenöder,Gokul Iyer,Silvana Mima,Ioanna Mouratiadou,Robert C. Pietzcker,Alexander Popp,Maarten van den Berg,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Edgar G. Hertwich,Edgar G. Hertwich +17 more
TL;DR: The authors quantify environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of a portfolio of alternative power sector decarbonisation pathways and show that the scale of co-Benefits as well as profiles of adverse side effects depend strongly on technology choice.
References
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The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
Keywan Riahi,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Elmar Kriegler,Jae Edmonds,Brian C. O'Neill,Shinichiro Fujimori,Nico Bauer,Katherine Calvin,Rob Dellink,Oliver Fricko,Wolfgang Lutz,Alexander Popp,Jesus Crespo Cuaresma,Samir Kc,Samir Kc,Marian Leimbach,Leiwen Jiang,Tom Kram,Shilpa Rao,Johannes Emmerling,Kristie L. Ebi,Tomoko Hasegawa,Petr Havlik,Florian Humpenöder,Lara Aleluia Da Silva,Steve Smith,Elke Stehfest,Valentina Bosetti,Valentina Bosetti,Jiyong Eom,Jiyong Eom,David E.H.J. Gernaat,Toshihiko Masui,Joeri Rogelj,Jessica Strefler,Laurent Drouet,Volker Krey,Gunnar Luderer,Mathijs Harmsen,Kiyoshi Takahashi,Lavinia Baumstark,Jonathan C. Doelman,Mikiko Kainuma,Zbigniew Klimont,Giacomo Marangoni,Hermann Lotze-Campen,Hermann Lotze-Campen,Michael Obersteiner,Andrzej Tabeau,Massimo Tavoni,Massimo Tavoni +50 more
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Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions
Pete Smith,Steven J. Davis,Felix Creutzig,Sabine Fuss,Jan C. Minx,Jan C. Minx,Benoit Gabrielle,Etsushi Kato,Robert B. Jackson,Annette Cowie,Elmar Kriegler,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Joeri Rogelj,Joeri Rogelj,Philippe Ciais,J. Milne,Josep G. Canadell,David L. McCollum,Glen P. Peters,Robbie M. Andrew,Volker Krey,Gyami Shrestha,Pierre Friedlingstein,Thomas Gasser,Arnulf Grubler,Wolfgang K. Heidug,Matthias Jonas,Chris D. Jones,Florian Kraxner,Emma Littleton,J. Lowe,José Roberto Moreira,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Michael Obersteiner,Anand Patwardhan,Mathis Rogner,Edward S. Rubin,Ayyoob Sharifi,Asbjørn Torvanger,Yoshiki Yamagata,Jae Edmonds,Cho Yongsung +42 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors quantify potential global impacts of different negative emissions technologies on various factors (such as land, greenhouse gas emissions, water, albedo, nutrients and energy) to determine the biophysical limits to, and economic costs of, their widespread application.
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Betting on negative emissions
Sabine Fuss,Josep G. Canadell,Glen P. Peters,Massimo Tavoni,Robbie M. Andrew,Philippe Ciais,Robert B. Jackson,Chris D. Jones,Florian Kraxner,N Nakicenovic,Corinne Le Quéré,Michael R. Raupach,Ayyoob Sharifi,Pete Smith,Yoshiki Yamagata +14 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the credibility of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage as a climate change mitigation option is investigated. But its credibility is unproven and its widespread deployment in climate stabilization scenarios might become a dangerous distraction.
Journal ArticleDOI
The trouble with negative emissions
TL;DR: If the Integrated Assessment Models informing policy-makers assume the large-scale use of negative-emission technologies and they are not deployed or are unsuccessful at removing CO2 from the atmosphere at the levels assumed, society will be locked into a high-temperature pathway.
Journal ArticleDOI
Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C
Joeri Rogelj,Joeri Rogelj,Gunnar Luderer,Robert C. Pietzcker,Elmar Kriegler,Michiel Schaeffer,Volker Krey,Keywan Riahi,Keywan Riahi +8 more
TL;DR: A new analysis shows that global warming could be limited to 1.5 °C by 2100, but that the window for achieving this is small and rapidly closing as mentioned in this paper, but this analysis does not consider the effects of human activities.
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