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Journal ArticleDOI

Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns

TLDR
In this article, Orthogonally rotated principle component analysis (RPCA) was used to identify and describe the seasonality and persistence of the major modes of interannual variability.
Abstract
Orthogonally rotated principle component analysis (RPCA) of Northern Hemisphere 1-month mean 700 mb heights is used to identify and describe the seasonality and persistence of the major modes of interannual variability. The analysis is detailed and comprehensive, in that 1) a high resolution, approximately equal-area 358-point grid is used for the virtually maximum possible 35-year period of record, 2) a positive bias in the NMC data base in the early 1950s in the subtropics is largely eliminated for the first time, and 3) homogeneous, separate analyses of each month of the year are carried out, detailing the mouth-to-month changes in the dominant circulation patterns. Winter results are similar to those of other recent RPCA and teleconnection studies except that some less obvious patterns are identified and further detail of the better-known patterns is provided. Two north-south dipole patterns are found over the Pacific Ocean (West Pacific Oscillation and East Pacific pattern) and over the Atla...

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Journal ArticleDOI

Climate influences on flood probabilities across Europe

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the effect of large-scale circulation variations on the distribution of seasonal discharge extremes at the European level by fitting a climate-informed generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to about 600 streamflow records in Europe for each of the standard seasons.
Journal ArticleDOI

Week 3–4 predictability over the United States assessed from two operational ensemble prediction systems

TL;DR: In this article, the subseasonal predictability of surface temperature and precipitation was examined using two global ensemble prediction systems (ECMWF VarEPS and NCEP CFSv2), with an emphasis on the week 3-4 lead (i.e., 15-28 days ahead) fortnight-average anomaly correlation skill over the United States, in each calendar season.
Journal ArticleDOI

Abrupt evolution of the summer Northern Hemisphere annular mode and its association with blocking

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors statistically analyzed the relationship of the summer Northern Hemisphere annular mode (summer NAM) with hemispheric-scale anomalous summer weather and the occurrence of blocking highs.
Journal ArticleDOI

Euro-Atlantic circulation types and modes of variability in winter

TL;DR: In this article, an objective synoptic classification of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation is described and eight circulation types have been identified and described in terms of their spatial features, mean frequency and lifetime, transitions and trends.
Journal ArticleDOI

Long‐term predictability of soil moisture dynamics at the global scale: Persistence versus large‐scale drivers

TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated factors that influence the long lead time predictability of soil moisture variability using standard statistical methods, such as teleconnection indices and the main northern, tropical, and southern atmospheric modes.
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