Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands
George C. Hurtt,George C. Hurtt,Louise Chini,Steve Frolking,Richard Betts,Johannes J. Feddema,Günther Fischer,J. Fisk,Kathy Hibbard,Richard A. Houghton,Anthony C. Janetos,Chris D. Jones,Georg Kindermann,Tsuguki Kinoshita,Kees Klein Goldewijk,Keywan Riahi,Elena Shevliakova,Steven J. Smith,Elke Stehfest,Allison M. Thomson,Peter E. Thornton,D.P. van Vuuren,D.P. van Vuuren,Ying-Ping Wang +23 more
TLDR
In this paper, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios is presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs, in preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).Abstract:
In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005–2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al. 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs. The land-use harmonization strategy estimates fractional land-use patterns and underlying land-use transitions annually for the time period 1500–2100 at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution. Inputs include new gridded historical maps of crop and pasture data from HYDE 3.1 for 1500–2005, updated estimates of historical national wood harvest and of shifting cultivation, and future information on crop, pasture, and wood harvest from the IAM implementations of the RCPs for the period 2005–2100. The computational method integrates these multiple data sources, while minimizing differences at the transition between the historical reconstruction ending conditions and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve the future changes depicted by the IAMs at the grid cell level. This study for the first time harmonizes land-use history data together with future scenario information from multiple IAMs into a single consistent, spatially gridded, set of land-use change scenarios for studies of human impacts on the past, present, and future Earth system.read more
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The representative concentration pathways: an overview
Detlef P. van Vuuren,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Jae Edmonds,Mikiko Kainuma,Keywan Riahi,Allison M. Thomson,Kathy Hibbard,George C. Hurtt,George C. Hurtt,Tom Kram,Volker Krey,Jean-Francois Lamarque,Toshihiko Masui,Malte Meinshausen,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Steven J. Smith,Steven K. Rose +17 more
TL;DR: The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) as discussed by the authors is a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments.
Journal ArticleDOI
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization
Veronika Eyring,Sandrine Bony,Gerald A. Meehl,Catherine A. Senior,Bjorn Stevens,Ronald J. Stouffer,Karl E. Taylor +6 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the background and rationale for the new structure of CMIP, provides a detailed description of the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations, and includes a brief introduction to the 21-CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs.
Journal ArticleDOI
The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300
Malte Meinshausen,Malte Meinshausen,Steven J. Smith,Katherine Calvin,John S. Daniel,Mikiko Kainuma,Jean-Francois Lamarque,Ken'ichi Matsumoto,Ken'ichi Matsumoto,Stephen A. Montzka,Sarah C. B. Raper,Keywan Riahi,Allison M. Thomson,Guus J. M. Velders,D.P. van Vuuren,D.P. van Vuuren +15 more
TL;DR: In this article, the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended ConcentrationPathways (ECPs), are presented.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity
Tim Newbold,Lawrence N. Hudson,Samantha L. L. Hill,Sara Contu,Igor Lysenko,Rebecca A. Senior,Luca Börger,Dominic J. Bennett,Argyrios Choimes,Ben Collen,Julie Day,Adriana De Palma,Sandra Díaz,Susy Echeverría-Londoño,Melanie J. Edgar,Anat Feldman,Morgan Garon,Michelle L K Harrison,Tamera I Alhusseini,Daniel J. Ingram,Yuval Itescu,Jens Kattge,Victoria Kemp,Lucinda Kirkpatrick,Michael Kleyer,David L P Correia,Callum D. Martin,Shai Meiri,Maria Novosolov,Yuan Pan,Helen Phillips,Drew W. Purves,Alexandra N Robinson,Jake Simpson,Sean L. Tuck,Evan Weiher,Hannah J. White,Robert M. Ewers,Georgina M. Mace,Jörn P. W. Scharlemann,Andy Purvis +40 more
TL;DR: A terrestrial assemblage database of unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage is analysed to quantify local biodiversity responses to land use and related changes and shows that in the worst-affected habitats, pressures reduce within-sample species richness by an average of 76.5%, total abundance by 39.5% and rarefaction-based richness by 40.3%.
Journal ArticleDOI
RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions
Keywan Riahi,Shilpa Rao,Volker Krey,Cheolhung Cho,V. Chirkov,Guenther Fischer,Georg Kindermann,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Peter Rafaj +8 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors summarized the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario and explored scenario variants that use RCP 8.5 as a baseline, and assume different degrees of greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce radiative forcing.
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