Hurricane Harvey Links to Ocean Heat Content and Climate Change Adaptation
TLDR
In this paper, the authors demonstrate links between increased upper ocean heat content due to global warming with the extreme rainfalls from recent hurricanes and show that record high ocean heat values not only increased the fuel available to sustain and intensify Harvey but also increased its flooding rains on land.Abstract:
While hurricanes occur naturally, human-caused climate change is supercharging them and exacerbating the risk of major damage. Here using ocean and atmosphere observations, we demonstrate links between increased upper ocean heat content due to global warming with the extreme rainfalls from recent hurricanes. Hurricane Harvey provides an excellent case study as it was isolated in space and time. We show that prior to the beginning of northern summer of 2017, ocean heat content was the highest on record both globally and in the Gulf of Mexico, but the latter sharply decreased with hurricane Harvey via ocean evaporative cooling. The lost ocean heat was realized in the atmosphere as moisture, and then as latent heat in record-breaking heavy rainfalls. Accordingly, record high ocean heat values not only increased the fuel available to sustain and intensify Harvey but also increased its flooding rains on land. Harvey could not have produced so much rain without human-induced climate change. Results have implications for the role of hurricanes in climate. Proactive planning for the consequences of human-caused climate change is not happening in many vulnerable areas, making the disasters much worse. Plain Language Summary Human-induced climate change continues to warm the oceans which provide the memory of past accumulated effects. The resulting environment, including higher ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures, invigorates tropical cyclones to make them more intense, bigger, and longer lasting and greatly increases their flooding rains. The main example here is Hurricane Harvey in August 2017, which can be reasonably isolated in terms of influences on and by the environment. Hurricanes keep tropical oceans cooler as a consequence of their strong winds that increase evaporation. Here we show for the first time that the rainfall likely matches the evaporation and the corresponding ocean heat loss. Planning for such supercharged hurricanes (adaptation) by increasing resilience (e.g., better building codes and flood protection) and preparing for contingencies (such as evacuation routes, power cuts, and so forth) is essential but not adequate in many areas, including Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico where Harvey, Irma, and Maria took their toll.read more
Citations
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Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming
Thomas R. Knutson,Suzana J. Camargo,Johnny C. L. Chan,Kerry Emanuel,Chang-Hoi Ho,James P. Kossin,M. Mohapatra,Masaki Satoh,Masato Sugi,Kevin Walsh,Liguang Wu +10 more
TL;DR: In this article, model projections of tropical cyclone activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed and observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate that tropical cyclones respond well to global warming.
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How fast are the oceans warming
TL;DR: Estimates of observed warming resemble those seen in models, indicating that models reliably project changes in OHC, and are better suited for detecting and attributing human influences.
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Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution
Thomas R. Knutson,Suzana J. Camargo,Johnny C. L. Chan,Kerry Emanuel,Chang-Hoi Ho,James P. Kossin,M. Mohapatra,Masaki Satoh,Masato Sugi,Kevin Walsh,Liguang Wu +10 more
TL;DR: In this paper, an assessment was made of whether detectable changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are identifiable in observations and whether any changes can be attributed to anthropogenic climate ch....
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Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World
Amir AghaKouchak,Felicia Chiang,Laurie S. Huning,C. A. Love,Iman Mallakpour,Omid Mazdiyasni,Hamed Moftakhari,Simon Michael Papalexiou,Elisa Ragno,Mojtaba Sadegh +9 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss the threats posed by climate extremes to human health, economic stability, and the well-being of natural and built environments (e.g., 2003 European heat wave).
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Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?
Karina von Schuckmann,Lijing Cheng,Matthew D. Palmer,James Hansen,Caterina Tassone,Valentin Aich,Susheel Adusumilli,Hugo Beltrami,Timothy P. Boyer,Francisco José Cuesta-Valero,Francisco José Cuesta-Valero,Damien Desbruyères,Catia M. Domingues,Almudena García-García,Pierre Gentine,John Gilson,Maximillian Gorfer,Leopold Haimberger,Masayoshi Ishii,Gregory C. Johnson,Rachel Killick,Brian A. King,Gottfried Kirchengast,Nicolas Kolodziejczyk,John M. Lyman,Ben Marzeion,Michael Mayer,Michael Mayer,Maeva Monier,Didier Monselesan,Sarah G. Purkey,Dean Roemmich,Axel Schweiger,Sonia I. Seneviratne,Andrew Shepherd,Donald Slater,Andrea K. Steiner,Fiammetta Straneo,Mary-Louise Timmermans,Susan Wijffels,Susan Wijffels +40 more
TL;DR: Von Schuckmann et al. as mentioned in this paper presented an updated assessment of ocean warming estimates as well as new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960-2018.
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