Neutralizing antibody levels are highly predictive of immune protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.
David S. Khoury,Deborah Cromer,Arnold Reynaldi,Timothy E. Schlub,Timothy E. Schlub,Adam K. Wheatley,Jennifer A Juno,Kanta Subbarao,Stephen J. Kent,Stephen J. Kent,Stephen J. Kent,James A. Triccas,Miles P. Davenport +12 more
TLDR
It is shown that neutralization level is highly predictive of immune protection, and an evidence-based model of SARS-CoV-2 immune protection that will assist in developing vaccine strategies to control the future trajectory of the pandemic is provided.Abstract:
Predictive models of immune protection from COVID-19 are urgently needed to identify correlates of protection to assist in the future deployment of vaccines. To address this, we analyzed the relationship between in vitro neutralization levels and the observed protection from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection using data from seven current vaccines and from convalescent cohorts. We estimated the neutralization level for 50% protection against detectable SARS-CoV-2 infection to be 20.2% of the mean convalescent level (95% confidence interval (CI) = 14.4–28.4%). The estimated neutralization level required for 50% protection from severe infection was significantly lower (3% of the mean convalescent level; 95% CI = 0.7–13%, P = 0.0004). Modeling of the decay of the neutralization titer over the first 250 d after immunization predicts that a significant loss in protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection will occur, although protection from severe disease should be largely retained. Neutralization titers against some SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern are reduced compared with the vaccine strain, and our model predicts the relationship between neutralization and efficacy against viral variants. Here, we show that neutralization level is highly predictive of immune protection, and provide an evidence-based model of SARS-CoV-2 immune protection that will assist in developing vaccine strategies to control the future trajectory of the pandemic. Estimates of the levels of neutralizing antibodies necessary for protection against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 or severe COVID-19 are a fraction of the mean level in convalescent serum and will be useful in guiding vaccine rollouts.read more
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TL;DR: The mRNA-1273 vaccine as discussed by the authors is a lipid nanoparticle-encapsulated mRNA-based vaccine that encodes the prefusion stabilized full-length spike protein of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes Covid-19.
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Merryn Voysey,Clemens Sac.,Shabir A. Madhi,Lily Yin Weckx,P M Folegatti,Parvinder K. Aley,Brian Angus,Vicky L. Baillie,Shaun Barnabas,Q E Bhorat,S Bibi,Carmen Briner,P Cicconi,Andrea M. Collins,R Colin-Jones,Clare L. Cutland,Thomas C. Darton,Keertan Dheda,Duncan Cja.,Emary Krw.,Katie J. Ewer,Lee Fairlie,Saul N. Faust,Shuo Feng,Daniela M. Ferreira,Adam Finn,Anna Goodman,Catherine M. Green,Christopher A Green,Paul T. Heath,Christopher Hill,Helen Hill,Ian Hirsch,Hodgson Shc.,Allen Izu,S Jackson,D Jenkin,Joe Ccd.,S Kerridge,Anthonet Koen,Gaurav Kwatra,Rajeka Lazarus,Alison M. Lawrie,A Lelliott,Vincenzo Libri,Patrick J. Lillie,R Mallory,Mendes Ava.,Eveline Pipolo Milan,Angela M. Minassian,Alastair McGregor,Hazel Morrison,Y Mujadidi,Amit J Nana,P J O’Reilly,S D Padayachee,A Pittella,E Plested,Katrina M Pollock,M N Ramasamy,S Rhead,Alexandre Vargas Schwarzbold,Nisha Singh,Andrew Smith,R Song,Matthew D. Snape,Eduardo Sprinz,Rebecca K. Sutherland,R Tarrant,E. Thomson,M E Török,Mark Toshner,Turner Dpj.,Johan Vekemans,Tonya Villafana,Watson Mee.,C J Williams,Alexander D. Douglas,Hill Avs.,Teresa Lambe,Sarah C. Gilbert,Andrew J. Pollard +81 more