Plant phenology and global climate change: Current progresses and challenges

TLDR: It is suggested that future studies should primarily focus on using new observation tools to improve the understanding of tropical plant phenology, on improving process-based phenology modeling, and on the scaling of phenology from species to landscape-level.

Abstract: Plant phenology, the annually recurring sequence of plant developmental stages, is important for plant functioning and ecosystem services and their biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. Plant phenology depends on temperature, and the current rapid climate change has revived interest in understanding and modeling the responses of plant phenology to the warming trend and the consequences thereof for ecosystems. Here, we review recent progresses in plant phenology and its interactions with climate change. Focusing on the start (leaf unfolding) and end (leaf coloring) of plant growing seasons, we show that the recent rapid expansion in ground- and remote sensing- based phenology data acquisition has been highly beneficial and has supported major advances in plant phenology research. Studies using multiple data sources and methods generally agree on the trends of advanced leaf unfolding and delayed leaf coloring due to climate change, yet these trends appear to have decelerated or even reversed in recent years. Our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the plant phenology responses to climate warming is still limited. The interactions between multiple drivers complicate the modeling and prediction of plant phenology changes. Furthermore, changes in plant phenology have important implications for ecosystem carbon cycles and ecosystem feedbacks to climate, yet the quantification of such impacts remains challenging. We suggest that future studies should primarily focus on using new observation tools to improve the understanding of tropical plant phenology, on improving process-based phenology modeling, and on the scaling of phenology from species to landscape-level.

Full text

This item is the archived peer-reviewed author-version of:
Plant phenology and global climate change: Current progresses and challenges
Reference:
Piao Shilong, Liu Qiang, Chen Anping, Janssens Ivan, Fu Yongshuo, Dai Junhu, Liu Lingli, Lian Xu, Shen Miaogen, Zhu Xiaolin.- Plant phenology and global climate
change: Current progresses and challenges
Global change biology - ISSN 1354-1013 - Hoboken, Wiley, 25:6(2019), p. 1922-1940
Full text (Publisher's DOI): https://doi.org/10.1111/GCB.14619
To cite this reference: https://hdl.handle.net/10067/1602900151162165141
Institutional repository IRUA

Accepted Article
This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not
been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may
lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as
doi: 10.1111/gcb.14619
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
DR. SHILONG PIAO (Orcid ID : 0000-0001-8057-2292)
DR. QIANG LIU (Orcid ID : 0000-0003-2332-2873)
DR. ANPING CHEN (Orcid ID : 0000-0003-2085-3863)
DR. YONGSHUO H FU (Orcid ID : 0000-0002-9761-5292)
DR. LINGLI LIU (Orcid ID : 0000-0002-5696-3151)
DR. MIAOGEN SHEN (Orcid ID : 0000-0001-5742-8807)
Article type : Invited Research Review
Title: Plant phenology and global climate change: current progresses and challenges
Running head: Plant phenology and global climate change
Shilong Piao
1,2,3*
, Qiang Liu
1
, Anping Chen
4
, Ivan A Janssens
5
, Yongshuo Fu
5,6
, Junhu Dai
7
,
Lingli Liu
8
, Xu Lian
1
,
Miaogen Shen
2,3
, Xiaolin Zhu
9

Accepted Article
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
1
Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental
Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
2
Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China
3
Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing
100085, China
4
Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
5
Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium
6
College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
7
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences
and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
8
Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China
9
Department of Land Surveying and Geo‐Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic
University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong
Keywords: plant phenology, leaf unfolding, leaf coloring, satellite-derived phenology,
phenological modelling, mechanisms and drivers, ecological implications, climatic
feedback, climate change

Accepted Article
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Revised Manuscript for
Global Change Biology
*Corresponding author: Shilong Piao, Tel: +86 10 6275 3298, Email:
slpiao@pku.edu.cn
Paper type: Research Review
Abstract
Plant phenology, the annually recurring sequence of plant developmental stages, is
important for plant functioning and ecosystem services and their biophysical and
biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. Plant phenology depends on
temperature, and the current rapid climate change has revived interest in
understanding and modelling the responses of plant phenology to the warming trend
and the consequences thereof for ecosystems. Here, we review recent progresses in
plant phenology and its interactions with climate change. Focusing on the start (leaf
unfolding) and end (leaf coloring) of plant growing seasons, we show that the recent
rapid expansion in ground- and remote sensing- based phenology data acquisition
has been highly beneficial and has supported major advances in plant phenology
research. Studies using multiple data sources and methods generally agree on the
trends of advanced leaf unfolding and delayed leaf coloring due to climate change,
yet these trends appear to have decelerated or even reversed in recent years. Our
understanding of the mechanisms underlying the plant phenology responses to
climate warming is still limited. The interactions between multiple drivers complicates

Accepted Article
This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
the modelling and prediction of plant phenology changes. Furthermore, changes in
plant phenology have important implications for ecosystem carbon cycles and
ecosystem feedbacks to climate, yet the quantification of such impacts remains
challenging. We suggest that future studies should primarily focus on using new
observation tools to improve the understanding of tropical plant phenology, on
improving process-based phenology modelling, and on the scaling of phenology from
species to landscape-level.
1. Introduction
Phenology is the study of periodically recurring patterns of growth and development
of plants and animal behavior during the year (Lieth, 1974). This subject has a long
history that can be dated back to thousands of years ago when our ancestors realized
that the documentation of some recurring phenological phenomena could be useful
for the guidance of agricultural decisions. Over its long history, phenology has grown
from an empirical subject of observing and recording the timing of a few key annual
natural events for a handful of species to a comprehensive field that involves
expanded observations, experiments, and modelling. This long history can be roughly
divided into three major periods (Figure 1, Table S1). The first period (1300 B. C. E –
around 17
th
century) was characterized with the identification of seasonal rhythms
that are important for arranging agricultural activities. Phenology during this period
was more like empirical descriptions of naturally reappearing phenomena of plants
and animals. The second period (17
th
century – 1990s) marked the birth of phenology

Frequently asked questions

Q1. What are the contributions in this paper?

Here, the authors review recent progresses in plant phenology and its interactions with climate change. Focusing on the start ( leaf unfolding ) and end ( leaf coloring ) of plant growing seasons, the authors show that the recent rapid expansion in groundand remote sensingbased phenology data acquisition has been highly beneficial and has supported major advances in plant phenology research. The interactions between multiple drivers complicates A cc ep te d A rt ic le This article is protected by copyright. The authors suggest that future studies should primarily focus on using new observation tools to improve the understanding of tropical plant phenology, on improving process-based phenology modelling, and on the scaling of phenology from species to landscape-level. Furthermore, changes in plant phenology have important implications for ecosystem carbon cycles and ecosystem feedbacks to climate, yet the quantification of such impacts remains challenging. 

Q2. What data were extracted from the Pan European Phenological Database?

For Europe, leaf unfolding (i.e. first visible leaf stalk, a) and leaf senescence (i.e. 50% of autumnal coloring, b) were extracted from the Pan European Phenological Database (PEP725, http://www.pep725.eu/). 

Q3. What was the time series of phenological events calculated?

All temporal trends (1982-2011, time series 15+ years) of spring and autumn phenological events were calculated as the linear regression against time. 

Q4. What is the phenology of the Amazon forest canopy?

Jones MO, Kimball JS, Nemani RR (2014) Asynchronous Amazon forest canopy phenologyindicates adaptation to both water and light availability. 

Q5. What is the phenological effect of the ad?

In this schematic illustration, the symbol “−” (“+”) in each bracket represents a positive (negative) forcing imposed on the corresponding diagnostics, from the plant phenological changes. 

Q6. What is the effect of warming on the phenology of mixed forest?

Kim JH, Hwang T, Yang Y, Schaaf CL, Boose E, Munger JW (2018) Warming-InducedEarlier Greenup Leads to Reduced Stream Discharge in a Temperate Mixed Forest Catchment. 

Q7. What is the phenology of deciduous forests?

485, 494-497.Xie Y, Wang X, Silander JA, Jr. (2015) Deciduous forest responses to temperature,precipitation, and drought imply complex climate change impacts.