Journal ArticleDOI
Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model
Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg,W. J. van de Berg,M. R. van den Broeke,J. G. L. Rae,E. van Meijgaard +4 more
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
In this article, a regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS).Abstract:
A regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Two different GCMs (ECHAM5 until 2100 and HadCM3 until 2200) and two different emission scenarios (A1B and E1) are used as forcing to capture a realistic range in future climate states. Simulated ice sheet averaged 2 m air temperature (T2m) increases (1.8–3.0 K in 2100 and 2.4–5.3 K in 2200), simultaneously and with the same magnitude as GCM simulated T2m. The SMB and its components increase in magnitude, as they are directly influenced by the temperature increase. Changes in atmospheric circulation around Antarctica play a minor role in future SMB changes. During the next two centuries, the projected increase in liquid water flux from rainfall and snowmelt, together 60–200 Gt year−1, will mostly refreeze in the snow pack, so runoff remains small (10–40 Gt year−1). Sublimation increases by 25–50 %, but remains an order of magnitude smaller than snowfall. The increase in snowfall mainly determines future changes in SMB on the AIS: 6–16 % in 2100 and 8–25 % in 2200. Without any ice dynamical response, this would result in an eustatic sea level drop of 20–43 mm in 2100 and 73–163 mm in 2200, compared to the twentieth century. Averaged over the AIS, a strong relation between \(\Updelta\)SMB and \(\Updelta\hbox{T}_{2{\rm m}}\) of 98 ± 5 Gt w.e. year−1 K−1 is found.read more
Citations
More filters
Dissertation
The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to 2100
TL;DR: In this article, the authors study the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet from the last glacial maximum (LGM) to 2100 to assess the contribution of natural processes and of human-induced climate change to the changes in the ice sheet we observe at the present.
The AEROCLOUD project: How do aerosols and clouds affect the East Antarctic climate?
Nicole Van Lipzig,H. De Backer,M. Van Roozendael,Niels Souverijns,Alexandra Gossart,Irina Gorodetskaya,Stef Lhermitte,Alexander Mangold,Quentin Laffineur,Clio Gielen,F. Hendrick,Christian Hermans +11 more
TL;DR: The role of clouds, their interaction with radiation, the coupling between aerosols and clouds and the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle are recognized as key elements in the climate system by several international consortia, such as the Joint Programming Initiative Connecting Climate Change Knowledge for Europe (JPI Climate) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
Impact of the Montreal Protocol on Antarctic Surface Mass Balance and Implications for Global Sea Level Rise
TL;DR: In this article, the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, adopted in 1987, is an international treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out emissions of chlorofluorocarbons and other ozone-depleting substances (ODSs).
Dissertation
Synthesising uncertainties of transient sea level rise projections
TL;DR: The MAGICC sea level model as discussed by the authors provides an e cient and robust modelling tool that more consistently links the future sea level response to plausible emission scenarios and allows for extensive uncertainty assessments of longterm sea level projections until 2300.
Journal ArticleDOI
Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used an uncertainty quantification approach to project the contribution of the Filchner-Ronne (FR) ice shelf basin under RCP emissions scenarios and assess the forward propagation and proportional contribution of uncertainties in model parameters (related to ice dynamics and atmospheric/oceanic forcing) on these projections.
References
More filters
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Journal ArticleDOI
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
Dick Dee,S. Uppala,Adrian Simmons,Paul Berrisford,Paul Poli,Shinya Kobayashi,Ulf Andrae,Magdalena Balmaseda,Gianpaolo Balsamo,Peter Bauer,Peter Bechtold,Anton Beljaars,L. van de Berg,Jean Bidlot,Niels Bormann,C. Delsol,Rossana Dragani,Manuel Fuentes,Alan J. Geer,Leopold Haimberger,Sean Healy,Hans Hersbach,Elías Hólm,Lars Isaksen,P. Kallberg,Martin Köhler,Marco Matricardi,A. P. McNally,B. M. Monge-Sanz,Jean-Jacques Morcrette,B.-K. Park,Carole Peubey,P. de Rosnay,Christina Tavolato,Jean-Noël Thépaut,Frederic Vitart +35 more
TL;DR: ERA-Interim as discussed by the authors is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century.
Book
Climate change 2007 : the physical science basis : contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a historical overview of climate change science, including changes in atmospheric constituents and radiative forcing, as well as changes in snow, ice, and frozen ground.
Journal ArticleDOI
The ERA‐40 re‐analysis
S. Uppala,Per Kållberg,Adrian Simmons,U. Andrae,V. da Costa Bechtold,M. Fiorino,J. K. Gibson,J. Haseler,A. Hernandez,Graeme Kelly,Xiaoming Li,Kazutoshi Onogi,Sami Saarinen,N. Sokka,Richard P. Allan,Richard P. Allan,Erik Andersson,Klaus Arpe,Magdalena Balmaseda,Anton Beljaars,L. van de Berg,Jean Bidlot,Niels Bormann,S. Caires,Frédéric Chevallier,A. Dethof,M. Dragosavac,Michael Fisher,Manuel Fuentes,Stefan Hagemann,Elías Hólm,Brian J. Hoskins,Lars Isaksen,Peter A. E. M. Janssen,Roy L. Jenne,A. P. McNally,Jean-François Mahfouf,Jean-Jacques Morcrette,Nick Rayner,Roger Saunders,P. Simon,Andreas Sterl,Kevin E. Trenberth,A. Untch,Drasko Vasiljevic,Pedro Viterbo,John S. Woollen +46 more
TL;DR: ERA-40 is a re-analysis of meteorological observations from September 1957 to August 2002 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in collaboration with many institutions as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming
Isaac M. Held,Brian J. Soden +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined some aspects of the hydrological cycle that are robust across the models, including the decrease in convective mass fluxes, the increase in horizontal moisture transport, the associated enhancement of the pattern of evaporation minus precipitation and its temporal variance, and decrease in the horizontal sensible heat transport in the extratropics.
Related Papers (5)
A reconciled estimate of ice-sheet mass balance
Andrew Shepherd,Erik R. Ivins,Geruo A,Valentina R. Barletta,Michael J. Bentley,Srinivas Bettadpur,Kate Briggs,David H. Bromwich,René Forsberg,Natalia Galin,Martin Horwath,S. S. Jacobs,Ian Joughin,Matt A. King,Matt A. King,Jan T. M. Lenaerts,Jilu Li,Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg,Adrian Luckman,Scott B. Luthcke,Malcolm McMillan,Rakia Meister,Glenn A. Milne,Jeremie Mouginot,Alan Muir,Julien P. Nicolas,John Paden,Antony J. Payne,Hamish D. Pritchard,Eric Rignot,Eric Rignot,Helmut Rott,Louise Sandberg Sørensen,Ted Scambos,Bernd Scheuchl,Ernst Schrama,Ben Smith,Aud Venke Sundal,Jan H. van Angelen,Willem Jan van de Berg,Michiel R. van den Broeke,David G. Vaughan,Isabella Velicogna,Isabella Velicogna,John Wahr,Pippa L. Whitehouse,Duncan J. Wingham,Donghui Yi,Duncan A. Young,H. Jay Zwally +49 more
Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica
Peter T. Fretwell,Hamish D. Pritchard,David G. Vaughan,Jonathan L. Bamber,Nicholas E. Barrand,Ruth Bell,Cesidio Bianchi,Robert Bingham,Donald D. Blankenship,Gino Casassa,Ginny A. Catania,Denis Callens,Howard Conway,Alison J. Cook,Hugh F. J. Corr,Detlef Damaske,Volkmar Damm,Fausto Ferraccioli,René Forsberg,Shuji Fujita,Y. Gim,Prasad Gogineni,J. A. Griggs,Richard C. A. Hindmarsh,Per Holmlund,John W. Holt,Robert W. Jacobel,Adrian Jenkins,Wilfried Jokat,Tom A. Jordan,Edward C. King,Jack Kohler,William B. Krabill,M. Riger-Kusk,Kirsty Langley,German Leitchenkov,Carl Leuschen,Bruce P. Luyendyk,Kenichi Matsuoka,Jeremie Mouginot,F. O. Nitsche,Yoshifumi Nogi,Ole Anders Nøst,S. V. Popov,Eric Rignot,David M. Rippin,Andrés Rivera,Jason L. Roberts,Neil Ross,Martin J. Siegert,Andrew Smith,Daniel Steinhage,Michael Studinger,Bo Sun,B. K. Tinto,Brian C. Welch,Douglas S. Wilson,Duncan A. Young,Cui Xiangbin,Achille Zirizzotti +59 more
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
Dick Dee,S. Uppala,Adrian Simmons,Paul Berrisford,Paul Poli,Shinya Kobayashi,Ulf Andrae,Magdalena Balmaseda,Gianpaolo Balsamo,Peter Bauer,Peter Bechtold,Anton Beljaars,L. van de Berg,Jean Bidlot,Niels Bormann,C. Delsol,Rossana Dragani,Manuel Fuentes,Alan J. Geer,Leopold Haimberger,Sean Healy,Hans Hersbach,Elías Hólm,Lars Isaksen,P. Kallberg,Martin Köhler,Marco Matricardi,A. P. McNally,B. M. Monge-Sanz,Jean-Jacques Morcrette,B.-K. Park,Carole Peubey,P. de Rosnay,Christina Tavolato,Jean-Noël Thépaut,Frederic Vitart +35 more