Journal ArticleDOI
Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model
Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg,W. J. van de Berg,M. R. van den Broeke,J. G. L. Rae,E. van Meijgaard +4 more
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In this article, a regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS).Abstract:
A regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Two different GCMs (ECHAM5 until 2100 and HadCM3 until 2200) and two different emission scenarios (A1B and E1) are used as forcing to capture a realistic range in future climate states. Simulated ice sheet averaged 2 m air temperature (T2m) increases (1.8–3.0 K in 2100 and 2.4–5.3 K in 2200), simultaneously and with the same magnitude as GCM simulated T2m. The SMB and its components increase in magnitude, as they are directly influenced by the temperature increase. Changes in atmospheric circulation around Antarctica play a minor role in future SMB changes. During the next two centuries, the projected increase in liquid water flux from rainfall and snowmelt, together 60–200 Gt year−1, will mostly refreeze in the snow pack, so runoff remains small (10–40 Gt year−1). Sublimation increases by 25–50 %, but remains an order of magnitude smaller than snowfall. The increase in snowfall mainly determines future changes in SMB on the AIS: 6–16 % in 2100 and 8–25 % in 2200. Without any ice dynamical response, this would result in an eustatic sea level drop of 20–43 mm in 2100 and 73–163 mm in 2200, compared to the twentieth century. Averaged over the AIS, a strong relation between \(\Updelta\)SMB and \(\Updelta\hbox{T}_{2{\rm m}}\) of 98 ± 5 Gt w.e. year−1 K−1 is found.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used a continental ice sheet model to show that mechanisms based on recent observations and analysis have the potential to resolve this model-data conflict, and incorporated these mechanisms in their ice-sheet model accelerates the expected collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to decadal time scales, and also causes retreat into major East Antarctic subglacial basins, producing ∼17 m global sea-level rise within a few thousand years.
Journal ArticleDOI
Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes
Aimée B. A. Slangen,Aimée B. A. Slangen,Mark Carson,Caroline A. Katsman,R. S. W. van de Wal,Armin Köhl,L. L. A. Vermeersen,Detlef Stammer +7 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models, combined with model and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution.
Journal ArticleDOI
Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016)
Jan Melchior van Wessem,Willem Jan van de Berg,Brice Noël,Erik van Meijgaard,Charles Amory,Gerit Birnbaum,Constantijn L. Jakobs,Konstantin Krüger,Jan T. M. Lenaerts,Stef Lhermitte,Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg,Brooke Medley,Carleen Reijmer,Kristof Van Tricht,Luke D. Trusel,Lambertus H. van Ulft,Bert Wouters,Jan Wuite,Michiel R. van den Broeke +18 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluate modelled Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) near-surface climate, surfacemass balance (SMB) and surface energy balance (SEB) from the updated polar version of the regional atmospheric climate model, RACMO2 (1979-2016).
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat
Jasmine R. Lee,Jasmine R. Lee,Ben Raymond,Ben Raymond,Ben Raymond,Thomas J. Bracegirdle,Iadine Chadès,Iadine Chadès,Richard A. Fuller,Justine D. Shaw,Aleks Terauds +10 more
TL;DR: This work quantifies the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling and hypothesizes that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.
Journal ArticleDOI
Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment
Matthias Mengel,Matthias Mengel,Anders Levermann,Anders Levermann,Anders Levermann,Katja Frieler,Alexander Robinson,Alexander Robinson,Ben Marzeion,Ricarda Winkelmann,Ricarda Winkelmann +10 more
TL;DR: An approach that combines information about the equilibrium sea level response to global warming and last century's observed contribution from the individual components to constrain projections for this century is presented, which may lead to a better understanding of the gap between process-based and global semiempirical approaches.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments
C. Gordon,C. Cooper,Catherine A. Senior,Helene T. Banks,Jonathan M. Gregory,T. C. Johns,John F. B. Mitchell,Richard Wood +7 more
TL;DR: A new version of the Hadley Centre coupled model (HadCM3) that does not require flux adjustments to prevent large climate drifts in the simulation is presented in this article.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones
Robert J. Nicholls,Anny Cazenave +1 more
TL;DR: Although the impacts of sea-level rise are potentially large, the application and success of adaptation are large uncertainties that require more assessment and consideration.
Journal ArticleDOI
A reconciled estimate of ice-sheet mass balance
Andrew Shepherd,Erik R. Ivins,Geruo A,Valentina R. Barletta,Michael J. Bentley,Srinivas Bettadpur,Kate Briggs,David H. Bromwich,René Forsberg,Natalia Galin,Martin Horwath,S. S. Jacobs,Ian Joughin,Matt A. King,Matt A. King,Jan T. M. Lenaerts,Jilu Li,Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg,Adrian Luckman,Scott B. Luthcke,Malcolm McMillan,Rakia Meister,Glenn A. Milne,Jeremie Mouginot,Alan Muir,Julien P. Nicolas,John Paden,Antony J. Payne,Hamish D. Pritchard,Eric Rignot,Eric Rignot,Helmut Rott,Louise Sandberg Sørensen,Ted Scambos,Bernd Scheuchl,Ernst Schrama,Ben Smith,Aud Venke Sundal,Jan H. van Angelen,Willem Jan van de Berg,Michiel R. van den Broeke,David G. Vaughan,Isabella Velicogna,Isabella Velicogna,John Wahr,Pippa L. Whitehouse,Duncan J. Wingham,Donghui Yi,Duncan A. Young,H. Jay Zwally +49 more
TL;DR: There is good agreement between different satellite methods—especially in Greenland and West Antarctica—and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty, and the mass balance of Earth’s polar ice sheets is estimated by combining the results of existing independent techniques.
Supplementary Materials for A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance
Andrew Shepherd,Erik R. Ivins,Geruo A,Valentina R. Barletta,Michael J. Bentley,Srinivas Bettadpur,Kate Briggs,David H. Bromwich,René Forsberg,Natalia Galin,Martin Horwath,Stan Jacobs,Ian Joughin,Matt A. King,Jan T. M. Lenaerts,Jilu Li,Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg,Adrian Luckman,Scott B. Luthcke,Malcolm McMillan,Glenn A. Milne,Jeremie Mouginot,Alan Muir,Julien Nicolas,John Paden,A. J. Payne,Hamish D. Pritchard,Eric Rignot,Helmut Rott,Ted Scambos,Bernd Scheuchl,Ernst Schrama,Ben Smith,Jan H. van Angelen,Willem Jan van de Berg,Michiel van den Broeke,Isabella Velicogna,John Wahr,Pippa L. Whitehouse,Duncan J. Wingham,Donghui Yi,Duncan Young,H. Jay Zwally +42 more
Journal ArticleDOI
Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves
Hamish D. Pritchard,Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg,Helen A. Fricker,David G. Vaughan,M. R. van den Broeke,Laurie Padman +5 more
TL;DR: Satellite laser altimetry and modelling of the surface firn layer are used to reveal the circum-Antarctic pattern of ice-shelf thinning through increased basal melt, which implies that climate forcing through changing winds influences Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance, and hence global sea level, on annual to decadal timescales.
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