Journal ArticleDOI
Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model
Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg,W. J. van de Berg,M. R. van den Broeke,J. G. L. Rae,E. van Meijgaard +4 more
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In this article, a regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS).Abstract:
A regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Two different GCMs (ECHAM5 until 2100 and HadCM3 until 2200) and two different emission scenarios (A1B and E1) are used as forcing to capture a realistic range in future climate states. Simulated ice sheet averaged 2 m air temperature (T2m) increases (1.8–3.0 K in 2100 and 2.4–5.3 K in 2200), simultaneously and with the same magnitude as GCM simulated T2m. The SMB and its components increase in magnitude, as they are directly influenced by the temperature increase. Changes in atmospheric circulation around Antarctica play a minor role in future SMB changes. During the next two centuries, the projected increase in liquid water flux from rainfall and snowmelt, together 60–200 Gt year−1, will mostly refreeze in the snow pack, so runoff remains small (10–40 Gt year−1). Sublimation increases by 25–50 %, but remains an order of magnitude smaller than snowfall. The increase in snowfall mainly determines future changes in SMB on the AIS: 6–16 % in 2100 and 8–25 % in 2200. Without any ice dynamical response, this would result in an eustatic sea level drop of 20–43 mm in 2100 and 73–163 mm in 2200, compared to the twentieth century. Averaged over the AIS, a strong relation between \(\Updelta\)SMB and \(\Updelta\hbox{T}_{2{\rm m}}\) of 98 ± 5 Gt w.e. year−1 K−1 is found.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used a continental ice sheet model to show that mechanisms based on recent observations and analysis have the potential to resolve this model-data conflict, and incorporated these mechanisms in their ice-sheet model accelerates the expected collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to decadal time scales, and also causes retreat into major East Antarctic subglacial basins, producing ∼17 m global sea-level rise within a few thousand years.
Journal ArticleDOI
Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes
Aimée B. A. Slangen,Aimée B. A. Slangen,Mark Carson,Caroline A. Katsman,R. S. W. van de Wal,Armin Köhl,L. L. A. Vermeersen,Detlef Stammer +7 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models, combined with model and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution.
Journal ArticleDOI
Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016)
Jan Melchior van Wessem,Willem Jan van de Berg,Brice Noël,Erik van Meijgaard,Charles Amory,Gerit Birnbaum,Constantijn L. Jakobs,Konstantin Krüger,Jan T. M. Lenaerts,Stef Lhermitte,Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg,Brooke Medley,Carleen Reijmer,Kristof Van Tricht,Luke D. Trusel,Lambertus H. van Ulft,Bert Wouters,Jan Wuite,Michiel R. van den Broeke +18 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluate modelled Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) near-surface climate, surfacemass balance (SMB) and surface energy balance (SEB) from the updated polar version of the regional atmospheric climate model, RACMO2 (1979-2016).
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat
Jasmine R. Lee,Jasmine R. Lee,Ben Raymond,Ben Raymond,Ben Raymond,Thomas J. Bracegirdle,Iadine Chadès,Iadine Chadès,Richard A. Fuller,Justine D. Shaw,Aleks Terauds +10 more
TL;DR: This work quantifies the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling and hypothesizes that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.
Journal ArticleDOI
Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment
Matthias Mengel,Matthias Mengel,Anders Levermann,Anders Levermann,Anders Levermann,Katja Frieler,Alexander Robinson,Alexander Robinson,Ben Marzeion,Ricarda Winkelmann,Ricarda Winkelmann +10 more
TL;DR: An approach that combines information about the equilibrium sea level response to global warming and last century's observed contribution from the individual components to constrain projections for this century is presented, which may lead to a better understanding of the gap between process-based and global semiempirical approaches.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise
Eric Rignot,Eric Rignot,Isabella Velicogna,Isabella Velicogna,M. R. van den Broeke,Andrew J. Monaghan,Jan T. M. Lenaerts +6 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a consistent record of mass balance for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets over the past two decades, validated by the comparison of two independent techniques over the last 8 years: one differencing perimeter loss from net accumulation, and one using a dense time series of time-variable gravity.
Journal ArticleDOI
Recent Antarctic ice mass loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling
Eric Rignot,Eric Rignot,Eric Rignot,Jonathan L. Bamber,Michiel R. van den Broeke,Curt H. Davis,Yonghong Li,Willem Jan van de Berg,Erik van Meijgaard +8 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors estimate that East Antarctica is close to a balanced mass budget, but large losses of ice occur in the narrow outlet channels of West Antarctic glaciers and at the northern tip of the Antarctic peninsula.
Journal ArticleDOI
Extensive dynamic thinning on the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
TL;DR: In this paper, a high-resolution ICESat (Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimetry is used to map changes along these ocean margins; the results show that dynamic thinning is more important and extensive than previously thought.
Journal ArticleDOI
BEDMAP: a new ice thickness and subglacial topographic model of Antarctica
TL;DR: In this paper, a suite of digital topographic models have been compiled for Antarctica and its surrounding ocean, including grids of ice sheet thickness over the grounded ice sheet and ice shelves, water column thickness beneath the floating ice shelves.
Journal ArticleDOI
Increasing rates of ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used monthly measurements of time-variable gravity from the GRACE satellite gravity mission to determine the ice mass-loss for the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets during the period between April 2002 and February 2009, and found that during this time period the mass loss of the ice sheets is not a constant, but accelerating with time.
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