Journal ArticleDOI
Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model
Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg,W. J. van de Berg,M. R. van den Broeke,J. G. L. Rae,E. van Meijgaard +4 more
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In this article, a regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS).Abstract:
A regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Two different GCMs (ECHAM5 until 2100 and HadCM3 until 2200) and two different emission scenarios (A1B and E1) are used as forcing to capture a realistic range in future climate states. Simulated ice sheet averaged 2 m air temperature (T2m) increases (1.8–3.0 K in 2100 and 2.4–5.3 K in 2200), simultaneously and with the same magnitude as GCM simulated T2m. The SMB and its components increase in magnitude, as they are directly influenced by the temperature increase. Changes in atmospheric circulation around Antarctica play a minor role in future SMB changes. During the next two centuries, the projected increase in liquid water flux from rainfall and snowmelt, together 60–200 Gt year−1, will mostly refreeze in the snow pack, so runoff remains small (10–40 Gt year−1). Sublimation increases by 25–50 %, but remains an order of magnitude smaller than snowfall. The increase in snowfall mainly determines future changes in SMB on the AIS: 6–16 % in 2100 and 8–25 % in 2200. Without any ice dynamical response, this would result in an eustatic sea level drop of 20–43 mm in 2100 and 73–163 mm in 2200, compared to the twentieth century. Averaged over the AIS, a strong relation between \(\Updelta\)SMB and \(\Updelta\hbox{T}_{2{\rm m}}\) of 98 ± 5 Gt w.e. year−1 K−1 is found.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Toward a Satellite-Derived Climatology of Blowing Snow Over Antarctica
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used 12 years of Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization measurements to derive a climatology of blowing snow layer height, optical depth, and frequency over Antarctica for the period 2006-2017.
Journal ArticleDOI
Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change
Chris R. Stokes,Nerilie J. Abram,Michael J. Bentley,Tamsin L. Edwards,Matthew H. England,Annie Foppert,Stewart S. R. Jamieson,Richard S. Jones,Michael King,Jan T. M. Lenaerts,Brooke Medley,Bertie W. J. Miles,Guy J. G. Paxman,Catherine Ritz,T. van de Flierdt,Pippa L. Whitehouse +15 more
TL;DR: This article reviewed the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past warm periods, synthesize current observations of change and evaluate future projections, and most projections indicate increased accumulation across the East Antarctica Ice Sheet over the twenty-first century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance.
Journal ArticleDOI
Anthropogenic impact on Antarctic surface mass balance, currently masked by natural variability, to emerge by mid-century
TL;DR: This paper used an ensemble of 35 global coupled climate models to separate signal and noise, and found that the forced SMB increase due to global warming in recent decades is unlikely to be detectable as a result of large natural SMB variability.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sources of 21st century regional sea-level rise along the coast of northwest Europe
Tom Howard,Anne Pardaens,Jonathan L. Bamber,Jeff Ridley,Giorgio Spada,R. T. W. L. Hurkmans,Jason Lowe,David G. Vaughan +7 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on the coastline of northwest Europe and their relative impact on 21st century regional mean sea levels and the 50-year return flood height and provide a self-consistent comparison of the contributions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Marion Donat-Magnin,Nicolas C. Jourdain,Christoph Kittel,Cécile Agosta,Charles Amory,Charles Amory,Hubert Gallée,Gerhard Krinner,Mondher Chekki +8 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors presented projections of West Antarctic surface mass balance and surface melt to 2080-2100 under the RCP85 scenario and based on a regional model at 10 km resolution.
References
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Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
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Climate change 2007 : the physical science basis : contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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The ERA‐40 re‐analysis
S. Uppala,Per Kållberg,Adrian Simmons,U. Andrae,V. da Costa Bechtold,M. Fiorino,J. K. Gibson,J. Haseler,A. Hernandez,Graeme Kelly,Xiaoming Li,Kazutoshi Onogi,Sami Saarinen,N. Sokka,Richard P. Allan,Richard P. Allan,Erik Andersson,Klaus Arpe,Magdalena Balmaseda,Anton Beljaars,L. van de Berg,Jean Bidlot,Niels Bormann,S. Caires,Frédéric Chevallier,A. Dethof,M. Dragosavac,Michael Fisher,Manuel Fuentes,Stefan Hagemann,Elías Hólm,Brian J. Hoskins,Lars Isaksen,Peter A. E. M. Janssen,Roy L. Jenne,A. P. McNally,Jean-François Mahfouf,Jean-Jacques Morcrette,Nick Rayner,Roger Saunders,P. Simon,Andreas Sterl,Kevin E. Trenberth,A. Untch,Drasko Vasiljevic,Pedro Viterbo,John S. Woollen +46 more
TL;DR: ERA-40 is a re-analysis of meteorological observations from September 1957 to August 2002 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in collaboration with many institutions as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming
Isaac M. Held,Brian J. Soden +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined some aspects of the hydrological cycle that are robust across the models, including the decrease in convective mass fluxes, the increase in horizontal moisture transport, the associated enhancement of the pattern of evaporation minus precipitation and its temporal variance, and decrease in the horizontal sensible heat transport in the extratropics.
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