MiKlip - a National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction
Jochem Marotzke,Wolfgang A. Müller,Freja S. E. Vamborg,Paul Becker,Ulrich Cubasch,Hendrik Feldmann,Frank Kaspar,Christoph Kottmeier,Camille Marini,Iuliia Polkova,Kerstin Prömmel,Henning W. Rust,Detlef Stammer,Uwe Ulbrich,Christopher Kadow,Armin Köhl,Jürgen Kröger,Tim Kruschke,Joaquim G. Pinto,Holger Pohlmann,Mark Reyers,Marc Schröder,Frank Sienz,Claudia Timmreck,Markus Ziese +24 more
TLDR
Mittelfristige Klimaprognose (MiKlip), an 8-yr German national research project on decadal climate prediction, is organized around a global prediction system comprising the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) together with an initialization procedure and a model evaluation system.Abstract:
Mittelfristige Klimaprognose (MiKlip), an 8-yr German national research project on decadal climate prediction, is organized around a global prediction system comprising the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) together with an initialization procedure and a model evaluation system. This paper summarizes the lessons learned from MiKlip so far; some are purely scientific, others concern strategies and structures of research that target future operational use.Three prediction system generations have been constructed, characterized by alternative initialization strategies; the later generations show a marked improvement in hindcast skill for surface temperature. Hindcast skill is also identified for multiyear-mean European summer surface temperatures, extratropical cyclone tracks, the quasi-biennial oscillation, and ocean carbon uptake, among others. Regionalization maintains or slightly enhances the skill in European surface temperature inherited from the global model and also displays h...read more
Citations
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A higher-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-HR)
Wolfgang A. Müller,Wolfgang A. Müller,Johann H. Jungclaus,Thorsten Mauritsen,Johanna Baehr,Matthias Bittner,Reinhard Budich,Felix Bunzel,Monika Esch,Rohit Ghosh,Helmuth Haak,Tatiana Ilyina,T. Kleine,Luis Kornblueh,Hongmei Li,Kameswarrao Modali,Dirk Notz,Holger Pohlmann,Erich Roeckner,Irene Stemmler,Fangxing Tian,Fangxing Tian,Jochem Marotzke +22 more
TL;DR: In this article, a coupled higher-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI•ESM1.2•HR) is compared with its lower-resolved version.
Near-term climate change:Projections and predictability
Nathaniel L. Bindoff,Paul J. Durack,Andrew G. Slater,Philip Cameron-Smith,Yoshimitsu Chikamoto,Olivia E. Clifton,Paul Ginoux,Marika M. Holland,Christopher D. Holmes,Johnna Infanti,Daniel J. Jacob,Jasmin G. John,Thomas R. Knutson,David M. Lawrence,Jian Lu,Daniel J. Murphy,Vaishali Naik,Alan Robock,Steve Vavrus,Masayoshi Ishii,Susanna Corti,Thierry Fichefet,Javier García-Serrano,Virginie Guemas,Lesley J. Gray,Ed Hawkins,Doug Smith,David Stevenson,Apostolos Voulgarakis,Antje Weisheimer,Oliver Wild,Tim Woollings,Paul Young,Gerhard Krinner,Zbigniew Klimont,Jan Sedláček,Bart van den Hurk,Twan van Noije +37 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assess the scientific literature describing expectations for near-term climate (present through mid-century) and assess the potential for the skilful prediction of annual to decadal average temperature and, to a lesser extent precipitation.
Journal ArticleDOI
Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction
William J. Merryfield,Johanna Baehr,Lauriane Batté,Emily Becker,Amy H. Butler,Caio A. S. Coelho,Gokhan Danabasoglu,Paul A. Dirmeyer,Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes,Daniela I. V. Domeisen,Laura Ferranti,Tatiana Ilynia,Arun Kumar,Wolfgang A. Müller,Michel Rixen,Andrew W. Robertson,Doug Smith,Yuhei Takaya,Matthias Tuma,Frederic Vitart,Christopher J. White,Mariano Sebastián Alvarez,Constantin Ardilouze,Hannah Attard,Cory Baggett,Magdalena Balmaseda,Asmerom F Beraki,Partha S. Bhattacharjee,Roberto Bilbao,Felipe M. de Andrade,Michael J. DeFlorio,Leandro B. Díaz,Muhammad Azhar Ehsan,Georgios Fragkoulidis,Sam Grainger,Benjamin W. Green,Momme C. Hell,Johnna M. Infanti,Katharina Isensee,Takahito Kataoka,Ben P. Kirtman,Nicholas P. Klingaman,June-Yi Lee,Kirsten Mayer,Roseanna C. McKay,Jennifer Mecking,Douglas E. Miller,Nele Neddermann,Ching Ho Justin Ng,Albert Ossó,Klaus Pankatz,Simon C. Peatman,Kathy Pegion,Judith Perlwitz,G. Cristina Recalde-Coronel,Annika Reintges,Christoph Renkl,Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali,Aaron Spring,Cristiana Stan,Y. Qiang Sun,Carly R. Tozer,Nicolas Vigaud,Steven J. Woolnough,Stephen Yeager +64 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services.
Journal ArticleDOI
Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate
Yochanan Kushnir,Adam A. Scaife,Adam A. Scaife,Raymond W. Arritt,Gianpaolo Balsamo,George J. Boer,Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes,Ed Hawkins,Masahide Kimoto,Rupa Kumar Kolli,Arun Kumar,Daniela Matei,Katja Matthes,Katja Matthes,Wolfgang A. Müller,Wolfgang A. Müller,Terence J. O’Kane,Judith Perlwitz,Judith Perlwitz,Scott B. Power,Marilyn N. Raphael,Akihiko Shimpo,Doug Smith,Matthias Tuma,Bo Wu +24 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss how to bridge the gap between current seasonal forecasts and century-scale climate change projections, allowing a seamless climate service delivery chain to be established, and outline concrete steps towards the provision of operational near-term climate predictions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Visualization in Meteorology—A Survey of Techniques and Tools for Data Analysis Tasks
Marc Rautenhaus,Michael Böttinger,Stephan Siemen,Robert R. Hoffman,Robert M. Kirby,Mahsa Mirzargar,Niklas Röber,Rüdiger Westermann +7 more
TL;DR: An overview of visualization techniques from the fields of display design, 3D visualization, flow dynamics, feature-based visualization, comparative visualization and data fusion, uncertainty and ensemble visualization, interactive visual analysis, efficient rendering, and scalability and reproducibility is presented.
References
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The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
Eugenia Kalnay,Masao Kanamitsu,Robert Kistler,William D. Collins,D.G. Deaven,L. S. Gandin,M. Iredell,Suranjana Saha,Glenn H. White,John S. Woollen,Yuejian Zhu,Muthuvel Chelliah,Wesley Ebisuzaki,Wayne Higgins,John E. Janowiak,Kingtse C. Mo,Chester F. Ropelewski,Julian X. L. Wang,Ants Leetmaa,Richard W. Reynolds,Roy L. Jenne,Dennis Joseph +21 more
TL;DR: The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km) as discussed by the authors.
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TL;DR: ERA-Interim as discussed by the authors is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century.
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Nick Rayner,David E. Parker,E. B. Horton,Chris K. Folland,Lisa V. Alexander,David P. Rowell,Elizabeth C. Kent,Alexey Kaplan +7 more
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The ERA‐40 re‐analysis
S. Uppala,Per Kållberg,Adrian Simmons,U. Andrae,V. da Costa Bechtold,M. Fiorino,J. K. Gibson,J. Haseler,A. Hernandez,Graeme Kelly,Xiaoming Li,Kazutoshi Onogi,Sami Saarinen,N. Sokka,Richard P. Allan,Richard P. Allan,Erik Andersson,Klaus Arpe,Magdalena Balmaseda,Anton Beljaars,L. van de Berg,Jean Bidlot,Niels Bormann,S. Caires,Frédéric Chevallier,A. Dethof,M. Dragosavac,Michael Fisher,Manuel Fuentes,Stefan Hagemann,Elías Hólm,Brian J. Hoskins,Lars Isaksen,Peter A. E. M. Janssen,Roy L. Jenne,A. P. McNally,Jean-François Mahfouf,Jean-Jacques Morcrette,Nick Rayner,Roger Saunders,P. Simon,Andreas Sterl,Kevin E. Trenberth,A. Untch,Drasko Vasiljevic,Pedro Viterbo,John S. Woollen +46 more
TL;DR: ERA-40 is a re-analysis of meteorological observations from September 1957 to August 2002 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in collaboration with many institutions as mentioned in this paper.
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