Showing papers on "Thermohaline circulation published in 2011"

The Community Climate System Model Version 4

Abstract: The fourth version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) was recently completed and released to the climate community. This paper describes developments to all CCSM components, and documents fully coupled preindustrial control runs compared to the previous version, CCSM3. Using the standard atmosphere and land resolution of 1° results in the sea surface temperature biases in the major upwelling regions being comparable to the 1.4°-resolution CCSM3. Two changes to the deep convection scheme in the atmosphere component result in CCSM4 producing El Nino–Southern Oscillation variability with a much more realistic frequency distribution than in CCSM3, although the amplitude is too large compared to observations. These changes also improve the Madden–Julian oscillation and the frequency distribution of tropical precipitation. A new overflow parameterization in the ocean component leads to an improved simulation of the Gulf Stream path and the North Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulati...

On the role of the Agulhas system in ocean circulation and climate

Abstract: The Atlantic Ocean receives warm, saline water from the Indo-Pacific Ocean through Agulhas leakage around the southern tip of Africa. Recent findings suggest that Agulhas leakage is a crucial component of the climate system and that ongoing increases in leakage under anthropogenic warming could strengthen the Atlantic overturning circulation at a time when warming and accelerated meltwater input in the North Atlantic is predicted to weaken it. Yet in comparison with processes in the North Atlantic, the overall Agulhas system is largely overlooked as a potential climate trigger or feedback mechanism. Detailed modelling experiments—backed by palaeoceanographic and sustained modern observations—are required to establish firmly the role of the Agulhas system in a warming climate.

Continuous, Array-Based Estimates of Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport at 26.5°N

Abstract: Continuous estimates of the oceanic meridional heat transport in the Atlantic are derived from the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) and Heatflux Array (RAPID–MOCHA) observing system deployed along 26.5°N, for the period from April 2004 to October 2007. The basinwide meridional heat transport (MHT) is derived by combining temperature transports (relative to a common reference) from 1) the Gulf Stream in the Straits of Florida; 2) the western boundary region offshore of Abaco, Bahamas; 3) the Ekman layer [derived from Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) wind stresses]; and 4) the interior ocean monitored by “endpoint” dynamic height moorings. The interior eddy heat transport arising from spatial covariance of the velocity and temperature fields is estimated independently from repeat hydrographic and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) sections and can also be approximated by the array. The results for the 3.5 yr of data thus far available show a mean MHT of 1.33 ± 0.40 PW for 10-day-averaged estimates, on which time scale a basinwide mass balance can be reasonably assumed. The associated MOC strength and variability is 18.5 ± 4.9 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). The continuous heat transport estimates range from a minimum of 0.2 to a maximum of 2.5 PW, with approximately half of the variance caused by Ekman transport changes and half caused by changes in the geostrophic circulation. The data suggest a seasonal cycle of the MHT with a maximum in summer (July–September) and minimum in late winter (March–April), with an annual range of 0.6 PW. A breakdown of the MHT into “overturning” and “gyre” components shows that the overturning component carries 88% of the total heat transport. The overall uncertainty of the annual mean MHT for the 3.5-yr record is 0.14 PW or about 10% of the mean value.

On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature

Abstract: The Earth has warmed at an unprecedented pace in the decades of the 1980s and 1990s (IPCC in Climate change 2007: the scientific basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007). In Wu et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:14889–14894, 2007) we showed that the rapidity of the warming in the late twentieth century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal (~65-year period) oscillatory variation and we estimated the contribution of the former to be about 0.08°C per decade since ~1980. Here we demonstrate the robustness of those results and discuss their physical links, considering in particular the shape of the secular trend and the spatial patterns associated with the secular trend and the multidecadal variability. The shape of the secular trend and rather globally-uniform spatial pattern associated with it are both suggestive of a response to the buildup of well-mixed greenhouse gases. In contrast, the multidecadal variability tends to be concentrated over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and particularly over the North Atlantic, suggestive of a possible link to low frequency variations in the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Depending upon the assumed importance of the contributions of ocean dynamics and the time-varying aerosol emissions to the observed trends in global-mean surface temperature, we estimate that up to one third of the late twentieth century warming could have been a consequence of natural variability.

Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years

Abstract: Understanding the internal ocean variability and its influence on climate is imperative for society. A key aspect concerns the enigmatic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a feature defined by a 60- to 90-year variability in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures. The nature and origin of the AMO is uncertain, and it remains unknown whether it represents a persistent periodic driver in the climate system, or merely a transient feature. Here, we show that distinct, ~55- to 70-year oscillations characterized the North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere variability over the past 8,000 years. We test and reject the hypothesis that this climate oscillation was directly forced by periodic changes in solar activity. We therefore conjecture that a quasi-persistent ~55- to 70-year AMO, linked to internal ocean-atmosphere variability, existed during large parts of the Holocene. Our analyses further suggest that the coupling from the AMO to regional climate conditions was modulated by orbitally induced shifts in large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulation.

Vertical structure of mesoscale eddies in the eastern South Pacific Ocean: A composite analysis from altimetry and Argo profiling floats

Abstract: [1] The mean vertical structure of mesoscale eddies in the Peru-Chile Current System is investigated by combining the historical records of Argo float profiles and satellite altimetry data. A composite average of 420 (526) profiles acquired by Argo floats that surfaced into cyclonic (anticyclonic) mesoscale eddies allowed constructing the mean three-dimensional eddy structure of the eastern South Pacific Ocean. Key differences in their thermohaline vertical structure were revealed. The core of cyclonic eddies (CEs) is centered at ∼150 m depth within the 25.2–26.0 kg m−3 potential density layer corresponding to the thermocline. In contrast, the core of the anticyclonic eddies (AEs) is located below the thermocline at ∼400 m depth impacting the 26.0–26.8 kg m−3 density layer. This difference was attributed to the mechanisms involved in the eddy formation. While intrathermocline CEs would be formed by instabilities of the surface equatorward coastal currents, the subthermocline AEs are likely to be shed by the subsurface poleward Peru-Chile Undercurrent. In the eddy core, maximum temperature and salinity anomalies are of ±1°C and ±0.1, with positive (negative) values for AEs (CEs). This study also provides new insight into the potential impact of mesoscale eddies for the cross-shore transport of heat and salt in the eastern South Pacific. Considering only the fraction of the water column associated with the fluid trapped within the eddies, each CE and AE has a typical volume anomaly flux of ∼0.1 Sv and yields to a heat and salt transport anomaly of ±1–3 × 1011 W and ±3–8 × 103 kg s−1, respectively.

Atmospheric Blocking and Atlantic Multidecadal Ocean Variability

Abstract: Atmospheric blocking over the northern North Atlantic, which involves isolation of large regions of air from the westerly circulation for 5 days or more, influences fundamentally the ocean circulation and upper ocean properties by affecting wind patterns. Winters with clusters of more frequent blocking between Greenland and western Europe correspond to a warmer, more saline subpolar ocean. The correspondence between blocked westerly winds and warm ocean holds in recent decadal episodes (especially 1996 to 2010). It also describes much longer time scale Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability (AMV), including the extreme pre–greenhouse-gas northern warming of the 1930s to 1960s. The space-time structure of the wind forcing associated with a blocked regime leads to weaker ocean gyres and weaker heat exchange, both of which contribute to the warm phase of AMV.

Observed decreases in oxygen content of the global ocean

Abstract: Comparing the high-quality oxygen climatology from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment to earlier data we reveal near-global decreases in oxygen levels in the upper ocean between the 1970s and the 1990s. This globally averaged oxygen decrease is −0.93 ± 0.23 mmol l−1, which is equivalent to annual oxygen losses of −0.55 ± 0.13 × 1014 mol yr−1 (100–1000 m). The strongest decreases in oxygen occur in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres, near regions where there is strong water renewal and exchange between the ocean interior and surface waters. Approximately 15% of global oxygen decrease can be explained by a warmer mixed-layer reducing the capacity of water to store oxygen, while the remainder is consistent with an overall decrease in the exchange between surface waters and the ocean interior. Here we suggest that this reduction in water mass renewal rates on a global scale is a consequence of increased stratification caused by warmer surface waters. These observations support climate model simulations of oxygen change under global warming scenarios.

A global relationship between the ocean water cycle and near-surface salinity

Abstract: [1] Ocean evaporation (E) and precipitation (P) are the fundamental components of the global water cycle. They are also the freshwater flux forcing (i.e., E-P) for the open ocean salinity. The apparent connection between ocean salinity and the global water cycle leads to the proposition of using the oceans as a rain gauge. However, the exact relationship between E-P and salinity is governed by complex upper ocean dynamics, which may complicate the inference of the water cycle from salinity observations. To gain a better understanding of the ocean rain gauge concept, here we address a fundamental issue as to how E-P and salinity are related on the seasonal timescales. A global map that outlines the dominant process for the mixed-layer salinity (MLS) in different regions is thus derived, using a lower-order MLS dynamics that allows key balance terms (i.e., E-P, the Ekman and geostrophic advection, vertical entrainment, and horizontal diffusion) to be computed from satellite-derived data sets and a salinity climatology. Major E-P control on seasonal MLS variability is found in two regions: the tropical convergence zones featuring heavy rainfall and the western North Pacific and Atlantic under the influence of high evaporation. Within this regime, E-P accounts for 40–70% MLS variance with peak correlations occurring at 2–4 month lead time. Outside of the tropics, the MLS variations are governed predominantly by the Ekman advection, and then vertical entrainment. The study suggests that the E-P regime could serve as a window of opportunity for testing the ocean rain gauge concept once satellite salinity observations are available.

Monitoring the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Abstract: The rapid climate change programme (RAPID) has established a prototype system to continuously observe the strength and structure of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) at 26.5°N. Here we provide a detailed description of the RAPID-MOC monitoring array and how it has evolved during the first four deployment years, as well as an overview of the main findings so far. The RAPID-MOC monitoring array measures: (1) Gulf Stream transport through Florida Strait by cable and repeat direct velocity measurements; (2) Ekman transports by satellite scatterometer measurements; (3) Deep Western Boundary Currents by direct velocity measurements; (4) the basin wide interior baroclinic circulation from moorings measuring vertical profiles of density at the boundaries and on either side of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge; and (5) barotropic fluctuations using bottom pressure recorders. The array became operational in late March 2004 and is expected to continue until at least 2014. The first 4 years of observations (April 2004–April 2008) have provided an unprecedented insight into the MOC structure and variability. We show that the zonally integrated meridional flow tends to conserve mass, with the fluctuations of the different transport components largely compensating at periods longer than 10 days. We take this as experimental confirmation of the monitoring strategy, which was initially tested in numerical models. The MOC at 26.5°N is characterised by a large variability—even on timescales as short as weeks to months. The mean maximum MOC transport for the first 4 years of observations is 18.7 Sv with a standard deviation of 4.8 Sv. The mechanisms causing the MOC variability are not yet fully understood. Part of the observed MOC variability consists of a seasonal cycle, which can be linked to the seasonal variability of the wind stress curl close to the African coast. Close to the western boundary, fluctuations in the Gulf Stream and in the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) coincide with bottom pressure variations at the western margin, thus suggesting a barotropic compensation. Ongoing and future research will put these local transport variations into a wider spatial and climatic context.

Dynamically and Observationally Constrained Estimates of Water-Mass Distributions and Ages in the Global Ocean

Abstract: A data-constrained ocean circulation model is used to characterize the distribution of water masses and their ages in the global ocean. The model is constrained by the time-averaged temperature, salinity, and radiocarbon distributions in the ocean, as well as independent estimates of the mean sea surface height and sea surface heat and freshwater fluxes. The data-constrained model suggests that the interior ocean is ventilated primarily by water masses forming in the Southern Ocean. Southern Ocean waters, including those waters forming in the Antarctic and subantarctic regions, make up about 55% of the interior ocean volume and an even larger percentage of the deep-ocean volume. In the deep North Pacific, the ratio of Southern Ocean to North Atlantic waters is almost 3:1. Approximately 65% of interior ocean waters make first contact with the atmosphere in the Southern Ocean, further emphasizing the central role played by the Southern Ocean in the regulation of the earth’s climate. Results of the a...

The Deglacial Evolution of North Atlantic Deep Convection

Abstract: Deepwater formation in the North Atlantic by open-ocean convection is an essential component of the overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean, which helps regulate global climate. We use water-column radiocarbon reconstructions to examine changes in northeast Atlantic convection since the Last Glacial Maximum. During cold intervals, we infer a reduction in open-ocean convection and an associated incursion of an extremely radiocarbon (14C)–depleted water mass, interpreted to be Antarctic Intermediate Water. Comparing the timing of deep convection changes in the northeast and northwest Atlantic, we suggest that, despite a strong control on Greenland temperature by northeast Atlantic convection, reduced open-ocean convection in both the northwest and northeast Atlantic is necessary to account for contemporaneous perturbations in atmospheric circulation.

An assessment of Arctic Ocean freshwater content changes from the 1990s to the 2006-2008 period and beyond

Abstract: Unprecedented summer-season sampling of the Arctic Ocean during the period 2006-2008 makes possible a quasi-synoptic estimate of liquid freshwater (LFW) inventories in the Arctic Ocean basins. In comparison to observations from 1992-1999, LFW content relative to a salinity of 35 in the layer from the surface to the 34 isohaline increased by 6000 to 10000 km≥ in the Arctic Ocean (water depth greater than 500 m). This is close to the annual export of freshwater (liquid and solid) from the Arctic Ocean reported in the literature. Observations and a model simulation show regional variations in LFW were both due to changes in the depth of the lower halocline, often forced by regional wind-induced Ekman pumping, and a mean freshening of the water column above this depth, associated with an increased net sea ice melt and advection of increased amounts of river water from the Siberian shelves. Over the whole Arctic Ocean, changes in the observed mean salinity above the 34 isohaline dominated estimated changes in LFW content. Observations from 2009-2010 suggest that LFW content is at similar or higher levels relative to 2006-2008. The observed change in LFW is likely to influence the vertical exchange of heat and freshwater exchange in the Arctic Ocean, and hence the modification of the circulating Atlantic Water. Furthermore, the additional LFW must ultimately be released from the Arctic Ocean to the regions of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic in future years.

The SE Asian Gateway: History and Tectonics of the Australia–Asia Collision

Abstract: Collision between Australia and SE Asia began in the Early Miocene and reduced the former wide ocean between them to a complex passage which connects the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Today, the Indonesian Throughflow passes through this gateway and plays an important role in global thermohaline flow. The surrounding region contains the maximum global diversity for many marine and terrestrial organisms. Reconstruction of this geologically complex region is essential for understanding its role in oceanic and atmospheric circulation, climate impacts, and the origin of its biodiversity. The papers in this volume discuss the Palaeozoic to Cenozoic geological background to Australia and SE Asia collision. They provide the background for accounts of the modern Indonesian Throughflow and oceanographic changes since the Neogene, and consider aspects of the region’s climate history.

Deep water formation, the subpolar gyre, and the meridional overturning circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic

Abstract: On interannual to decadal times scales, model simulations suggest a strong relationship between anomalies in the deep water formation rate, the strength of the subpolar gyre, and the meridional overturning circulation in the North Atlantic. Whether this is valid, can only be confirmed by continuous, long observational time series. Several measurement components are already in place, but crucial arrays to obtain time series of the meridional volume and heat transport in the subpolar North Atlantic are still missing. Here we summarize the recent developments of the deep water formation rates and the subpolar gyre transports. We discuss how existing observational components in the subpolar North Atlantic could be supplemented to provide long-term monitoring of the meridional heat and volume transport. Through a combined analysis of observations and model results the temporal and spatial scales that had to be covered with instruments are discussed, together with the key regions with the highest variability in the velocity and temperature fields.

Impact of Antarctic Circumpolar Current development on late Paleogene ocean structure.

Abstract: Global cooling and the development of continental-scale Antarctic glaciation occurred in the late middle Eocene to early Oligocene (~38 to 28 million years ago), accompanied by deep-ocean reorganization attributed to gradual Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) development. Our benthic foraminiferal stable isotope comparisons show that a large δ13C offset developed between mid-depth (~600 meters) and deep (>1000 meters) western North Atlantic waters in the early Oligocene, indicating the development of intermediate-depth δ13C and O2 minima closely linked in the modern ocean to northward incursion of Antarctic Intermediate Water. At the same time, the ocean’s coldest waters became restricted to south of the ACC, probably forming a bottom-ocean layer, as in the modern ocean. We show that the modern four-layer ocean structure (surface, intermediate, deep, and bottom waters) developed during the early Oligocene as a consequence of the ACC.

Centennial-scale climate change from decadally-paced explosive volcanism: a coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism

Abstract: Northern Hemisphere summer cooling through the Holocene is largely driven by the steady decrease in summer insolation tied to the precession of the equinoxes. However, centennial-scale climate departures, such as the Little Ice Age, must be caused by other forcings, most likely explosive volcanism and changes in solar irradiance. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols have the stronger forcing, but their short residence time likely precludes a lasting climate impact from a single eruption. Decadally paced explosive volcanism may produce a greater climate impact because the long response time of ocean surface waters allows for a cumulative decrease in sea-surface tempera- tures that exceeds that of any single eruption. Here we use a global climate model to evaluate the potential long-term climate impacts from four decadally paced large tropical eruptions. Direct forcing results in a rapid expansion of Arctic Ocean sea ice that persists throughout the eruption period. The expanded sea ice increases the flux of sea ice exported to the northern North Atlantic long enough that it reduces the convective warming of surface waters in the subpolar North Atlantic. In two of our four simulations the cooler surface waters being advected into the Arctic Ocean reduced the rate of basal sea-ice melt in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, allowing sea ice to remain in an expanded state for ( 100 model years after volcanic aerosols were removed from the stratosphere. In these simulations the coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism main- tains the strong positive feedbacks of an expanded Arctic Ocean sea ice cover, allowing the initial cooling related to the direct effect of volcanic aerosols to be perpetuated, potentially resulting in a centennial-scale or longer change of state in Arctic climate. The fact that the sea ice-ocean mechanism was not established in two of our four simu- lations suggests that a long-term sea ice response to vol- canic forcing is sensitive to the stability of the seawater column, wind, and ocean currents in the North Atlantic during the eruptions.

Southern Ocean wind response to North Atlantic cooling and the rise in atmospheric CO2: Modeling perspective and paleoceanographic implications

Abstract: [1] A recent study found enhanced upwelling rates in the Southern Ocean during the last glacial termination that coincided with the deglacial warming in Antarctica and the rise in atmospheric CO2. They hypothesized that the intensification of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude westerlies, the presumed cause of the increased wind-driven upwelling, was triggered by an initial cooling within the glacial North Atlantic whose influence was then communicated to the southern midlatitudes through an atmospheric teleconnection. In this study, we explore the viability of the above hypothesis using a modeling strategy, focusing on the atmospheric teleconnection. In simulations where North Atlantic cooling was applied, the model Intertropical Convergence Zone shifted southward, and westerlies and wind stress over Southern Ocean increased by as much as 25%. While the perennial westerly anomalies occur over the entire Southern Ocean, they are strongest over the South Pacific during the austral winter. When the wind stress anomalies were applied to an Earth system model incorporating interactive marine biogeochemistry, atmospheric CO2 rises between 20 and 60 ppm, depending on the biological response. We thus confirm the viability of the proposed atmospheric teleconnection hypothesis. The teleconnection appears to involves two distinct steps: first, the North Atlantic cooling shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward, weakening the southern branch of the Hadley circulation, and second, how the altered Hadley circulation in turn modifies the structure of midlatitude westerlies in the South Pacific, via the former's influence on the Southern Hemisphere subtropical jet. This study underscores the control of the Northern Hemisphere has on southern midlatitude westerlies, mediating by tropical circulation, in contrast to past paleoclimate hypotheses that the magnitude and position of the southern midlatitude westerlies was controlled by global mean temperature. Our results do not preclude other potential mechanisms for affecting Southern Ocean ventilation, in particular through oceanic pathways.

Eddy stirring in the Southern Ocean

Abstract: There is an ongoing debate concerning the distribution of eddy stirring across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and the nature of its controlling processes. The problem is addressed here by estimating the isentropic eddy diffusivity ? from a collection of hydrographic and altimetric observations, analyzed in a mixing length theoretical framework. It is shown that, typically, ? is suppressed by an order of magnitude in the upper kilometer of the ACC frontal jets relative to their surroundings, primarily as a result of a local reduction of the mixing length. This observation is reproduced by a quasi-geostrophic theory of eddy stirring across a broad barotropic jet based on the scaling law derived by Ferrari and Nikurashin (2010). The theory interprets the observed widespread suppression of the mixing length and ? in the upper layers of frontal jets as the kinematic consequence of eddy propagation relative to the mean flow within jet cores. Deviations from the prevalent regime of mixing suppression in the core of upper-ocean jets are encountered in a few special sites. Such ‘leaky jet’ segments appear to be associated with sharp stationary meanders of the mean flow that are generated by the interaction of the ACC with major topographic features. It is contended that the characteristic thermohaline structure of the Southern Ocean, consisting of multiple upper-ocean thermohaline fronts separated and underlaid by regions of homogenized properties, is largely a result of the widespread suppression of eddy stirring by parallel jets.

Regional sea level trends due to a Pacific trade wind intensification

Abstract: [1] Over the past two decades, sea level trends have increased in the western tropical Pacific Ocean with rates that are approximately three times the global average. A general circulation model is used to show that the high rates are caused by a gradual intensification of Pacific trade winds since the early 1990s. The modeled sea level change captures the spatial trend pattern in satellite altimeter sea surface heights and the temporal trend shift in tide gauge observations. In addition to the sea level response, the model is used to show how other aspects of the ocean circulation have increased appreciably in amplitude as a consequence of the trade wind intensification, including tropical surface currents, the shallow meridional over-turning circulation, the Equatorial Undercurrent, and the Indonesian Throughflow. These results highlight an ongoing shift in the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean that will continue as long as the trade wind trend persists.

A Theory of Deep Stratification and Overturning Circulation in the Ocean

Abstract: A simple theoretical model of the deep stratification and meridional overturning circulation in an idealized single-basin ocean with a circumpolar channel is presented. The theory includes the effects of wind, eddies, and diapycnal mixing; predicts the deep stratification in terms of the surface forcing and other problem parameters; makes no assumption of zero residual circulation; and consistently accounts for the interaction between the circumpolar channel and the rest of the ocean. The theory shows that dynamics of the overturning circulation can be characterized by two limiting regimes, corresponding to weak and strong diapycnal mixing. The transition between the two regimes is described by a nondimensional number characterizing the strength of the diffusion-driven compared to the wind-driven overturning circulation. In the limit of weak diapycnal mixing, deep stratification throughout the ocean is produced by the effects of wind and eddies in a circumpolar channel and maintained even in the ...

Observational Evidence for Oceanic Controls on Hurricane Intensity

Abstract: The influence of oceanic changes on tropical cyclone activity is investigated using observational estimates of sea surface temperature (SST), air–sea fluxes, and ocean subsurface thermal structure during the period 1998–2007. SST conditions are examined before, during, and after the passage of tropical cyclones, through Lagrangian composites along cyclone tracks across all ocean basins, with particular focus on the North Atlantic. The influence of translation speed is explored by separating tropical cyclones according to the translation speed divided by the Coriolis parameter. On average for tropical cyclones up to category 2, SST cooling becomes larger as cyclone intensity increases, peaking at 1.8 K in the North Atlantic. Beyond category 2 hurricanes, however, the cooling no longer follows an increasing monotonic relationship with intensity. In the North Atlantic, the cooling for stronger hurricanes decreases, while in other ocean basins the cyclone-induced cooling does not significantly differ...

Deep ocean ventilation, carbon isotopes, marine sedimentation and the deglacial CO 2 rise

Abstract: . The link between the atmospheric CO2 level and the ventilation state of the deep ocean is an important building block of the key hypotheses put forth to explain glacial-interglacial CO2 fluctuations. In this study, we systematically examine the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 and its carbon isotope composition to changes in deep ocean ventilation, the ocean carbon pumps, and sediment formation in a global 3-D ocean-sediment carbon cycle model. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that a break up of Southern Ocean stratification and invigorated deep ocean ventilation were the dominant drivers for the early deglacial CO2 rise of ~35 ppm between the Last Glacial Maximum and 14.6 ka BP. Another rise of 10 ppm until the end of the Holocene is attributed to carbonate compensation responding to the early deglacial change in ocean circulation. Our reasoning is based on a multi-proxy analysis which indicates that an acceleration of deep ocean ventilation during early deglaciation is not only consistent with recorded atmospheric CO2 but also with the reconstructed opal sedimentation peak in the Southern Ocean at around 16 ka BP, the record of atmospheric δ13CCO2, and the reconstructed changes in the Pacific CaCO3 saturation horizon.

The South Atlantic and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Abstract: This article discusses the contribution of the South Atlantic circulation to the variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC). The South Atlantic connects the North Atlantic to the Indian and Pacific oceans, being the conduit through which the southward outflow of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) is compensated by northward inflows of upper and intermediate waters. This circulation pattern, in which cold waters flow poleward and warm waters equatorward, generates a distinct heat flux that is directed from the poles towards the equator. Observations and models indicate that the South Atlantic is not just a passive conduit but that its circulation influences significantly the water mass structure of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). These transformations occur across the whole basin but are most intensified in regions of high mesoscale variability. Models and observations also show that the South Atlantic plays a significant role in the establishment of oceanic teleconnections. Anomalies generated in the Southern Ocean, for example, are transmitted through inter-ocean exchanges to the northern basins. These results highlight the need for sustained observations in the South Atlantic and Southern Ocean, which, in conjunction with modeling efforts, would improve the understanding of the processes necessary to formulate long-term climate predictions.

The stability of the MOC as diagnosed from model projections for pre-industrial, present and future climates

Abstract: The stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is investigated for various climate scenario runs, using data from the CMIP3 archive of coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Apart from atmospheric feedbacks, the sign of the salt flux into the Atlantic basin that is carried by the MOC determines whether the MOC is in the single or multiple equilibria regime. This salt advection feedback is analyzed by diagnosing the freshwater and salt budgets for the combined Atlantic and Arctic basins. Consistent with the finding that almost all coupled climate models recover from hosing experiments, it is found that most models feature a negative salt advection feedback in their pre-industrial climate: freshwater perturbations are damped by this feedback, excluding the existence of a stable off-state for the MOC. All models feature enhanced evaporation over the Atlantic basin in future climates, but for a moderate increase in radiative forcing (B1 and 2 CO2 scenarios), there is a decrease of the fresh water flux carried by the MOC into the Atlantic (the deficit is made up by increased fresh water transport by the gyre circulation). In this forcing regime the salt advection feedback becomes less negative: for three models from an ensemble of eight it is positive in a 2 CO2 climate, while two models feature a positive feedback in the pre-industrial climate. For even warmer climates (A1B-equilibrium and 4 CO2) the salt feedback becomes more negative (damping) again. It is shown that the decrease in northward fresh water transport at 34°S by the MOC (in B1-equilibrium and 2 CO2) is due to a reduction of the inflow of intermediate waters relative to thermocline waters, associated with a robust shoaling of the MOC in future, warmer climates. In A1B and 4 CO2 climates northward freshwater transport increases again. The MOC keeps shoaling, but both intermediate and thermocline water masses freshen.

Influence of Atlantic sea surface temperatures on persistent drought in North America

Abstract: This study investigates the relationship between North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) and persistent drought in North America using modern observations, proxy paleo-data, and simulations from multiple climate models. The observational results show that persistent droughts in the Great Plains and the southwest North America are closely related to multidecadal variations of North Atlantic SST (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations, AMO). During the AMO warm (cold) phases, most of North America is dry (wet). This relationship is persistent since at least 1567 AD, as based on proxy SST for the North Atlantic and the reconstructed drought index for North America. On centennial timescales, proxy SST records from the North Atlantic and proxy drought records for North America suggest that major periods of AMO-like warm (cold) SST anomalies during the last 7.0 ka correspond to dry (wet) conditions in the Great Plains. The influence of North Atlantic SST on North American droughts is examined using simulations made by five global climate models. When forced by warm North Atlantic SST anomalies, all models captured significant drying over North America, despite some regional differences. Specifically, dry summers in the Great Plains and the southwest North America are simulated by all models. The precipitation response to a cold North Atlantic is much weaker and contains greater disagreement among the models. Overall, the ensemble of the five models could well reproduce the statistical relationship between the dry/wet fluctuations in the North America and North Atlantic SST anomalies. Our results suggest that North Atlantic SSTs are likely a major driver of decadal and centennial timescale circulation, including droughts, in North America. Possible mechanisms that connect North Atlantic SST with North American drought, as well as interactions between North Atlantic and tropical Pacific SST and their relative roles on drought are also discussed.

On ocean and sea ice modes of variability in the Bering Sea

Abstract: [1] Results from a 35 year hindcast of northeast Pacific Ocean conditions are confronted with observational data collected over the Bering Sea shelf within the integration time period. Rotary power spectra of the hindcast currents near NOAA mooring site M2 site fall within the 95% confidence bounds for the observational spectra, except for a high bias in the counter-clockwise rotating component at 10 m depth in the high frequencies (periods <24 h). The model exhibits the most skill in reproducing anomalies of the integrated annual sea ice concentration and monthly subsurface (60 m depth) temperature fields, accounting for 85% and 50% of their observed variability. Analysis of the integrated ice concentration time series reveals evolution in the mean duration of ice-free waters (40 year trend of +6.8 days/decade) and changes in this parameter's variance with time. Correlation and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses reveal the primary temporal-spatial patterns of variability in the temperature and salinity fields over the Bering Sea and northern Gulf of Alaska for near-surface (0–20 m) and subsurface (40–100 m) depth layers. Correlation analysis between the EOF principal components and various climate index and observed time series shows that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and the Bering Sea annually integrated ice area anomalies are important indices of thermohaline variability; the spatial structures of these modes give insight to their potential impacts upon the ecosystem. We identify a number of ecologically and economically important species whose temporal variability is significantly correlated with the identified spatial patterns.