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Sick individuals and sick populations

Geoffrey Rose
- 01 Mar 1985 - 
- Vol. 30, Iss: 3, pp 427-432
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TLDR
Aetiology confronts two distinct issues: the determinant of individual cases, and the determinants of incidence rate: if exposure to a necessary agent is homogeneous within a population, then case/control and cohort methods will fail to detect it.
Abstract
Aetiology confronts two distinct issues: the determinants of individual cases, and the determinants of incidence rate. If exposure to a necessary agent is homogeneous within a population, then case/control and cohort methods will fail to detect it: they will only identify markers of susceptibility. The corresponding strategies in control are the 'high-risk' approach, which seeks to protect susceptible individuals, and the population approach, which seeks to control the causes of incidence. The two approaches are not usually in competition, but the prior concern should always be to discover and control the causes of incidence.

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Distribution of major health risks: Findings from the global burden of disease study

TL;DR: Many major global risks are widely spread in a population, rather than restricted to a minority, and population-based strategies that seek to shift the whole distribution of risk factors often have the potential to produce substantial reductions in disease burden.
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Prediction and Interaction in Complex Disease Genetics: Experience in Type 1 Diabetes

TL;DR: These two topics concern the use and interpretation of statistical models for risk of diseases with several, perhaps many, etiological risk factors, and were both the subject of lively debate some 30 to 40 years ago when such models first came into widespread use in epidemiology.
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Lowering the burden of suffering from child psychiatric disorder: Trade-offs among clinical, targeted, and universal interventions.

TL;DR: An optimal mix of universal, targeted, and clinical programs is needed to reduce the burden of suffering from child psychiatric disorder.
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From Exposure to Disease: The Role of Environmental Factors in Susceptibility to and Development of Tuberculosis

TL;DR: Developing countries never experienced such a substantial drop in tuberculosis case rates, and the number of reported tuberculosis cases increased dramatically during the 1980s, especially in Africa south of the Sahara, where tuberculosis is a leading cause of mortality.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI

Strategy of prevention: lessons from cardiovascular disease.

Geoffrey Rose
- 06 Jun 1981 - 
TL;DR: In this article, two types of preventive measures are proposed; the first consists in the removal of an unnatural factor and the restoration of biological normality as the reduction of intake of saturated fats would be in the case of heart disease; the second does not consist of removing a supposed cause of disease but in adding some other factors in the hope of conferring protection as a high intake of polyunsaturated fat and of long-term medication would be for heart disease.
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A Co-operative trial in the primary prevention of ischaemic heart disease using clofibrate: Report1 from the Committee of Principal Investigators

TL;DR: A double-blind intervention trial to test the hypothesis that the incidence of ischaemic heart disease in middle-aged men can be reduced by lowering raised serum cholesterol levels found men with a substantial reduction of cholesterol concentration, who smoked, and also had above average blood pressure levels showed the most benefit.
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Cardiorespiratory disease and diabetes among middle-aged male Civil Servants. A study of screening and intervention.

TL;DR: In this paper, a screening survey for cardiorespiratory disease and diabetes among 18,403 male Civil Servants aged 40-64 years, representing a 77% response of those eligible.
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How well can we predict coronary heart disease? Findings in the United Kingdom Heart Disease Prevention Project.

TL;DR: Although a group of subjects at high risk can be identified, among whom will be a high proportion of potential victims of heart attack, many subjects will be wrongly classified and highlight the need for research to improve the prediction of the development of coronary heart disease.
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British Regional Heart Study: geographic variations in cardiovascular mortality, and the role of water quality.

TL;DR: A negative relation existed between water hardness and cardiovascular mortality, although climate and socioeconomic conditions also appeared to be important influences.
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