Tracing the climate signal : mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase
Torben R. Christensen,Torben R. Christensen,Vivek K. Arora,Michael Gauss,Lena Höglund-Isaksson,Frans-Jan W. Parmentier,Frans-Jan W. Parmentier +6 more
TLDR
It is shown that man-made emissions can be reduced sufficiently to limit methane-caused climate warming by 2100 even in the case of an uncontrolled natural Arctic methane emission feedback, but this requires a committed, global effort towards maximum feasible reductions.Abstract:
Natural methane emissions are noticeably influenced by warming of cold arctic ecosystems and permafrost. An evaluation specifically of Arctic natural methane emissions in relation to our ability to mitigate anthropogenic methane emissions is needed. Here we use empirical scenarios of increases in natural emissions together with maximum technically feasible reductions in anthropogenic emissions to evaluate their potential influence on future atmospheric methane concentrations and associated radiative forcing (RF). The largest amplification of natural emissions yields up to 42% higher atmospheric methane concentrations by the year 2100 compared with no change in natural emissions. The most likely scenarios are lower than this, while anthropogenic emission reductions may have a much greater yielding effect, with the potential of halving atmospheric methane concentrations by 2100 compared to when anthropogenic emissions continue to increase as in a business-as-usual case. In a broader perspective, it is shown that man-made emissions can be reduced sufficiently to limit methane-caused climate warming by 2100 even in the case of an uncontrolled natural Arctic methane emission feedback, but this requires a committed, global effort towards maximum feasible reductions.read more
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Key indicators of Arctic climate change : 1971–2017
Jason E. Box,William Colgan,Torben R. Christensen,Torben R. Christensen,Niels Martin Schmidt,Magnus Lund,Frans-Jan W. Parmentier,Frans-Jan W. Parmentier,Ross Brown,Uma S. Bhatt,Eugénie S. Euskirchen,Vladimir E. Romanovsky,John Walsh,James E. Overland,Muyin Wang,Muyin Wang,Robert W. Corell,Walter N. Meier,Bert Wouters,Bert Wouters,Sebastian H. Mernild,Sebastian H. Mernild,Sebastian H. Mernild,Johanna Mård,Janet Pawlak,Morten Skovgård Olsen +25 more
TL;DR: In this article, key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47-year period (1971-2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system.
Journal ArticleDOI
The polar regions in a 2°C warmer world
Eric Post,Richard B. Alley,Torben R. Christensen,Marc Macias-Fauria,Bruce C. Forbes,Michael N. Gooseff,Amy M. Iler,Jeffrey T. Kerby,Jeffrey T. Kerby,Kristin L. Laidre,Michael E. Mann,Johan Olofsson,Julienne Stroeve,Fran Ulmer,Ross A. Virginia,Muyin Wang,Muyin Wang +16 more
TL;DR: Expected consequences of increased Arctic warming include ongoing loss of land and sea ice, threats to wildlife and traditional human livelihoods, increased methane emissions, and extreme weather at lower latitudes.
Journal ArticleDOI
Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink
Julie Loisel,Angela V. Gallego-Sala,Matthew J. Amesbury,Matthew J. Amesbury,Gabriel Magnan,Gusti Z. Anshari,David W. Beilman,J. C. Benavides,Jerome Blewett,Philip Camill,Dan J. Charman,Sakonvan Chawchai,A. Hedgpeth,Thomas Kleinen,Atte Korhola,David Large,Claudia A Mansilla,Jurek Müller,S. van Bellen,J. B. West,Zicheng Yu,Zicheng Yu,Jill L. Bubier,Michelle Garneau,Tim R. Moore,A. B. K. Sannel,Susan Page,Minna Väliranta,Michel Bechtold,Victor Brovkin,Lydia E.S. Cole,Jeffrey P. Chanton,Torben R. Christensen,M. A. Davies,F. De Vleeschouwer,Sarah A. Finkelstein,Steve Frolking,Mariusz Gałka,Laure Gandois,N. T. Girkin,Lorna I. Harris,Andreas Heinemeyer,Alison M. Hoyt,Alison M. Hoyt,Miriam C. Jones,Fortunat Joos,Sari Juutinen,Karl Kaiser,Terri Lacourse,Mariusz Lamentowicz,Tuula Larmola,Jens Leifeld,Annalea Lohila,Annalea Lohila,Alice M. Milner,Kari Minkkinen,Patrick Moss,Bernhard David A Naafs,Jonathan E. Nichols,Jonathan A. O'Donnell,Richard J. Payne,Michael Philben,Sanna Piilo,Anne Quillet,Amila Sandaruwan Ratnayake,Thomas P. Roland,Sofie Sjögersten,Oliver Sonnentag,Graeme T. Swindles,W. Swinnen,Julie Talbot,Claire C. Treat,A. C. Valach,Jianghua Wu +73 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future.
Journal ArticleDOI
Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic
Kimberley R. Miner,Merritt R. Turetsky,Edward Malina,Annett Bartsch,Johanna Tamminen,A. David McGuire,Andreas Fix,Colm Sweeney,C. Elder,Charles E. Miller +9 more
Journal ArticleDOI
Technical potentials and costs for reducing global anthropogenic methane emissions in the 2050 timeframe –results from the GAINS model
Lena Höglund-Isaksson,Adriana Gómez-Sanabria,Adriana Gómez-Sanabria,Zbigniew Klimont,Peter Rafaj,Wolfgang Schöpp +5 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore the technical abatement and cost pathways for reducing global methane emissions, breaking reductions down to regional and sector levels using the most recent version of IIASA's Greenhouse gas and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model.
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