Future of African terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems under anthropogenic climate change

TLDR: In this article, the authors unpacked some of the reasons for this uncertainty and revealed the importance of accounting for the influences of disturbances and climate on vegetation in Africa's ecology and ecosystems.

Abstract: Projections of African ecological responses to climate change diverge widely. This Perspective unpicks some of the reasons for this uncertainty and reveals the importance of accounting for the influences of disturbancesand climate on vegetation. Projections of ecosystem and biodiversity change for Africa under climate change diverge widely. More than other continents, Africa has disturbance-driven ecosystems that diversified under low Neogene CO2 levels, in which flammable fire-dependent C4 grasses suppress trees, and mega-herbivore action alters vegetation significantly. An important consequence is metastability of vegetation state, with rapid vegetation switches occurring, some driven by anthropogenic CO2-stimulated release of trees from disturbance control. These have conflicting implications for biodiversity and carbon sequestration relevant for policymakers and land managers. Biodiversity and ecosystem change projections need to account for both disturbance control and direct climate control of vegetation structure and function.