Institution
National Bureau of Economic Research
Nonprofit•Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States•
About: National Bureau of Economic Research is a nonprofit organization based out in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Population. The organization has 2626 authors who have published 34177 publications receiving 2818124 citations. The organization is also known as: NBER & The National Bureau of Economic Research.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
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TL;DR: This paper surveys the recent burgeoning literature that empirically examines the foreign direct investment (FDI) decisions of multinational enterprises and the resulting aggregate location of FDI across the world, and evaluates what we can say with relative confidence about FDI as a profession, given the evidence, and what we cannot have much confidence in at this point.
Abstract: This paper surveys the recent burgeoning literature that empirically examines the foreign direct investment (FDI) decisions of multinational enterprises (MNEs) and the resulting aggregate location of FDI across the world. The contribution of the paper is to evaluate what we can say with relative confidence about FDI as a profession, given the evidence, and what we cannot have much confidence in at this point. Suggestions are made for future research directions.
844 citations
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TL;DR: This paper found that the average 2-year and 4-year college student earned roughly 5% more than high school graduates for every year of credits completed, suggesting that the credentialing effects of these degrees are small.
Abstract: In CPS data, the 20% of the civilian labor force with 1-3 years of college earn 15% more than high school graduates. We use data from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of1972 which includes postsecondary transcript data and the NLSY to study the distinct returns to 2-year and 4-year college attendance and degree completion. Controlling for background and measured ability, wage differentials for both 2-year and 4-year college credits are positive and similar. We find that the average 2-year and 4-year college student earned roughly 5% more than high school graduates for every year of credits completed. Second, average bachelor and associate degree recipients did not earn significantly more than those with similar numbers of college credits and no degree, suggesting that the credentialing effects of these degrees are small. We report similar results from the NLSY and the CPS. We also pursue two IV strategies to identify measurement error and selection bias. First, we use self-reported education as an instrument for transcript reported education. Second, we use public tuition and distance from the closest 2-year and 4-year colleges as instruments, which we take as orthogonal to schooling measurement error and other unobserved characteristics of college students. We find that in our data the two biases roughly cancel each other, suggesting that the results above are, if anything, understated.
843 citations
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TL;DR: The authors show that limited investor attention leads to category-learning behavior, i.e., investors tend to process more market and sector-wide information than firm-specific information, which generates important features observed in return comovement that are otherwise difficult to explain with standard rational expectations models.
842 citations
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TL;DR: This article used survey data and the technique of bootstrapping to test a number of propositions of interest, such as the expected future spot rate can be viewed as inelastic with respect to the contemporaneous spot rate, in that it also puts weight on other variables: the lagged expected spot rate (as in adaptive expectations), the distributed lag expectations, or a long-run equilibrium rate (regressive expectations).
Abstract: Survey data provide a measure of exchange rate expectations that is superior to the commonly-used forward exchange rate in the respect that it does notinclude a risk premium. We use survey data and the technique of bootstrapping to test a number of propositions of interest. We are able to reject static or "randomwalk" expectations for both nominal and real exchange rates. Expected depreciation is large in magnitude. There is even statistically significant unconditional bias: during the 1981-85 "strong dollar period" the market persistently over estimated depreciation of the dollar. Expected depreciation is also variable, contrary to some recent claims. The expected future spot rate can be viewed as inelastic with respect to the contemporaneous spot rate, in that it also puts weight on other variables: the lagged expected spot rate (as in adaptive expectations), the lagged actual spot rate (distributed lag expectations), or a long-run equilibrium rate (regressive expectations). In one irnportant case, the relatively low weight that investors' expectations put on the contemporaneous spot rate constitutes a statistical rejection of rational expectations: we find that prediction errors are correlated with expected depreciation, so that investors would do better if they always reduced fractionally the magnitude of expected depreciation. This is the same result found by Bilson, Fama, and many others, except that it can no longer be attributed to a risk premium.
840 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the choice of a monetary-policy rule in a simple macroeconomic model and showed that pure inflation targeting is dangerous in an open economy, because it creates large fluctuations in exchange rates and output.
Abstract: This paper examines the choice of a monetary-policy rule in a simple macroeconomic model. In a closed economy, the optimal policy is a output and inflation. In an open economy, the optimal rule changes in two ways. First, the policy instrument is a Conditions Index the exchange rate. Second, on the right side of the rule, inflation is replaced by filters out the transitory effects of exchange-rate movements. The model also implies that pure inflation targeting is dangerous in an open economy, because it creates large fluctuations in exchange rates and output. Targeting long-run inflation avoids this problem and produces a close approximation to the optimal instrument rule.
839 citations
Authors
Showing all 2855 results
Name | H-index | Papers | Citations |
---|---|---|---|
James J. Heckman | 175 | 766 | 156816 |
Andrei Shleifer | 171 | 514 | 271880 |
Joseph E. Stiglitz | 164 | 1142 | 152469 |
Daron Acemoglu | 154 | 734 | 110678 |
Gordon H. Hanson | 152 | 1434 | 119422 |
Edward L. Glaeser | 137 | 550 | 83601 |
Alberto Alesina | 135 | 498 | 93388 |
Martin B. Keller | 131 | 541 | 65069 |
Jeffrey D. Sachs | 130 | 692 | 86589 |
John Y. Campbell | 128 | 400 | 98963 |
Robert J. Barro | 124 | 519 | 121046 |
René M. Stulz | 124 | 470 | 81342 |
Paul Krugman | 123 | 347 | 102312 |
Ross Levine | 122 | 398 | 108067 |
Philippe Aghion | 122 | 507 | 73438 |