National Bureau of Economic Research

About: National Bureau of Economic Research is a nonprofit organization based out in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Population. The organization has 2626 authors who have published 34177 publications receiving 2818124 citations. The organization is also known as: NBER & The National Bureau of Economic Research.

Do Voters Affect or Elect Policies? Evidence from the U. S. House

Abstract: There are two fundamentally different views of the role of elections in policy formation. In one view, voters can affect candidates’ policy choices: competition for votes induces politicians to move toward the center. In this view, elections have the effect of bringing about some degree of policy compromise. In the alternative view, voters merely elect policies: politicians cannot make credible promises to moderate their policies, and elections are merely a means to decide which one of two opposing policy views will be implemented. We assess which of these contrasting perspectives is more empirically relevant for the U. S. House. Focusing on elections decided by a narrow margin allows us to generate quasi-experimental estimates of the impact of a “randomized” change in electoral strength on subsequent representatives’ roll-call voting records. We find that voters merely elect policies: the degree of electoral strength has no effect on a legislator’s voting behavior. For example, a large exogenous increase in electoral strength for the Democratic party in a district does not result in shifting both parties’ nominees to the left. Politicians’ inability to credibly commit to a compromise appears to dominate any competition-induced convergence in policy.

Short Interest, Institutional Ownership, and Stock Returns

Abstract: Stocks are short sale constrained when there is a strong demand to sell short and a limited supply of shares to borrow. Using data on both short interest, a proxy for demand, and institutional ownership, a proxy for supply, we find that constrained stocks underperform during 1988-2002 by a significant 215 basis points per month on an EW basis, although by only an insignificant 39 basis points per month on a VW basis. For the overwhelming majority of stocks, short interest and institutional ownership levels make short selling constraints unlikely.

Does Head Start Improve Children's Life Chances? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design

Abstract: This paper exploits a new source of variation in Head Start funding to identify the program’s effects on health and schooling. In 1965 the Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO) provided technical assistance to the 300 poorest counties to develop Head Start proposals. The result was a large and lasting discontinuity in Head Start funding rates at the OEO cutoff for grant-writing assistance. We find evidence of a large drop at the OEO cutoff in mortality rates for children from causes that could be affected by Head Start, as well as suggestive evidence for a positive effect on educational attainment. I. INTRODUCTION Head Start was established in 1965 as part of the War on Poverty to provide preschool, health, and other social services to poor children age three to five and their families, and currently serves over 900,000 children each year at a cost of around $7 billion [HHS 2006]. This paper provides new evidence on the effects of the Head Start program on schooling and health by drawing on a new source of variation in program funding. Spe

The Price of Sin: The Effects of Social Norms on Markets

Abstract: We provide evidence for the effects of social norms on markets by studying "sin" stocks - publicly-traded companies involved in producing alcohol, tobacco, and gaming. We hypothesize that there is a societal norm to not fund operations that promote vice and that some investors, particularly institutions subject to norms, pay a financial cost in abstaining from these stocks. Consistent with this hypothesis, sin stocks are less held by certain institutions, such as pension plans (but not by mutual funds who are natural arbitrageurs), and less followed by analysts than other stocks. Consistent with them facing greater litigation risk and/or being neglected because of social norms, they outperform the market even after accounting for well-known return predictors. Corporate financing decisions and time-variation in norms for tobacco also indicate that norms affect stock prices. Finally, we gauge the relative importance of litigation risk versus neglect for returns. Sin stock returns are not systematically related to various proxies for litigation risk, but are weakly correlated to the demand for socially responsible investing, consistent with them being neglected.

Changes in the Demand for Skilled Labor within U.S. Manufacturing Industries: Evidence from the Annual Survey of Manufacturing

Abstract: This paper investigates the shift in demand towards skilled labor in U.S. manufacturing. Between 1979 and 1989. employment of production workers in manufacturing dropped by 2.2 mil1ion or 15 percent while employment of non-production workers rose by 3 percent. A decomposition of changing employment patterns in each of 450 industries reveals that the defense buildup and trade deficits can account for only a small part of the shift in demand towards non-production workers. We conclude that production labor-saving technological change is the most likely explanation for the shift in demand towards non-production workers since the shift is mostly due to changes in labor demand within industries rather than reallocation of employment towards industries with higher shares of skilled labor. Strong correlations between within-industry skil1 upgrading and both increased investment in computers on the one hand and increased investment in R&D on the other provide further evidence for production labor saving technological change.