National Bureau of Economic Research

About: National Bureau of Economic Research is a nonprofit organization based out in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Monetary policy & Population. The organization has 2626 authors who have published 34177 publications receiving 2818124 citations. The organization is also known as: NBER & The National Bureau of Economic Research.

From Violence to Voting: War and Political Participation in Uganda

Abstract: What is the political legacy of violent conflict? This paper presents evidence for a link between war, violence and increased individual political participation and leadership among former combatants and victims of violence, and uses this link to understand the deeper determinants of individual political behavior. The setting is northern Uganda, where rebel recruitment methods generated quasi-experimental variation in who became a rebel conscript and who did not. Original survey data shows that the exogenous element of conscription (by abduction) leads to significantly greater political participation later in life. The principal determinant of this increased political participation, moreover, appears to be war violence experienced. Meanwhile, abduction and violence do not appear to affect multiple non-political types of community participation. I show that these patterns are not easily explained by models of participation based on simple rational preferences, social preferences, mobilization by elites, or information availability. Only 'expressive' theories of participation appear consistent with the patterns observed, whereby exposure to violence augments the value a person places on the act of political expression itself. The implications for general theories of political participation are discussed.

International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence

Abstract: We review recent work comparing properties of international business cycles with those of dynamic general equilibrium models, emphasizing two discrepancies between theory and data that we refer to as anomalies. The first is the consumption/output/productivity anomaly: in the data we generally find that the correlation across countries of output fluctuations is larger than the analogous consumption and productivity correlations. In theoretical economies we find, for a wide range of parameter values, that the consumption correlation exceeds the productivity and output correlations. The second anomaly concerns relative price movements: the standard deviation of the terms of trade is considerably larger in the data than it is in theoretical economies. We speculate on changes in theoretical structure that might bring theory and data closer together.

Why do the Elderly Save? The Role of Medical Expenses

Abstract: This paper constructs a model of saving for retired single people that includes heterogeneity in medical expenses and life expectancies, and bequest motives We estimate the model using Assets and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old data and the method of simulated moments Out‐of‐pocket medical expenses rise quickly with age and permanent income The risk of living long and requiring expensive medical care is a key driver of saving for many higher‐income elderly Social insurance programs such as Medicaid rationalize the low asset holdings of the poorest but also benefit the rich by insuring them against high medical expenses at the ends of their lives

Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals

Abstract: Fixed exchange rates are less volatile than floating rates. But the volatility of macroeconomic variables such as money and output does not change very much across exchange rate regimes. This suggests that exchange rate models based only on macroeconomic fundamentals are unlikely to be very successful. It also suggests that there is no clear tradeoff between reduced exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic stability.

Cross-Country Technology Diffusion: The Case of Computers

Abstract: We use data on imports of computer equipment for a large sample of countries between 1 970 and 1990 to investigate the determinants of computer-technology adoption. We find strong evidence that computer adoption is associated with higher levels of human capital and with manufacturing trade openness vis-a-vis the OECD. We also find evidence that computer adoption is enhanced by high investment rates, good property rights protection, and a small share of agriculture in GDP. Finally, there is some evidence that adoption is reduced by a large share of government in GDP, and increased by a large share of manufacturing. After controlling for the above-mentioned variables, we do not find an independent role for the English- (or European-) language skills of the population.