Global Carbon Budget 2019
Pierre Friedlingstein,Pierre Friedlingstein,Matthew W. Jones,Michael O'Sullivan,Robbie M. Andrew,Judith Hauck,Glen P. Peters,Wouter Peters,Wouter Peters,Julia Pongratz,Julia Pongratz,Stephen Sitch,Corinne Le Quéré,Dorothee C. E. Bakker,Josep G. Canadell,Philippe Ciais,Robert B. Jackson,Peter Anthoni,Leticia Barbero,Leticia Barbero,Ana Bastos,Vladislav Bastrikov,Meike Becker,Meike Becker,Laurent Bopp,Erik T. Buitenhuis,Naveen Chandra,Frédéric Chevallier,Louise Chini,Kim I. Currie,Richard A. Feely,Marion Gehlen,Dennis Gilfillan,Thanos Gkritzalis,Daniel S. Goll,Nicolas Gruber,Sören B. Gutekunst,Ian Harris,Vanessa Haverd,Richard A. Houghton,George C. Hurtt,Tatiana Ilyina,Atul K. Jain,Emilie Joetzjer,Jed O. Kaplan,Etsushi Kato,Kees Klein Goldewijk,Kees Klein Goldewijk,Jan Ivar Korsbakken,Peter Landschützer,Siv K. Lauvset,Nathalie Lefèvre,Andrew Lenton,Andrew Lenton,Sebastian Lienert,Danica Lombardozzi,Gregg Marland,Patrick C. McGuire,Joe R. Melton,Nicolas Metzl,David R. Munro,Julia E. M. S. Nabel,Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka,Craig Neill,Abdirahman M Omar,Abdirahman M Omar,Tsuneo Ono,Anna Peregon,Anna Peregon,Denis Pierrot,Denis Pierrot,Benjamin Poulter,Gregor Rehder,Laure Resplandy,Eddy Robertson,Christian Rödenbeck,Roland Séférian,Jörg Schwinger,Jörg Schwinger,Naomi E. Smith,Naomi E. Smith,Pieter P. Tans,Hanqin Tian,Bronte Tilbrook,Bronte Tilbrook,Francesco N. Tubiello,Guido R. van der Werf,Andy Wiltshire,Sönke Zaehle +88 more
TLDR
In this article, the authors describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties, including emissions from land use and land use change, and show that the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle.Abstract:
. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide ( CO2 ) emissions and
their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere
– the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the
global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and
project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to
quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their
uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions ( EFF ) are based on energy
statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change
( ELUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change
data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured
directly and its growth rate ( GATM ) is computed from the annual changes
in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink ( SOCEAN ) and terrestrial
CO2 sink ( SLAND ) are estimated with global process models
constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance
( BIM ), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the
estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a
measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon
cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ . For the last
decade available (2009–2018), EFF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr −1 ,
ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr −1 , GATM 4.9±0.02 GtC yr −1 ( 2.3±0.01 ppm yr −1 ), SOCEAN 2.5±0.6 GtC yr −1 , and SLAND 3.2±0.6 GtC yr −1 , with a budget
imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr −1 indicating overestimated emissions
and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was
about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC yr −1 , reaching 10 GtC yr −1 for the first time in history,
ELUC was 1.5±0.7 GtC yr −1 , for total anthropogenic
CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC yr −1 ( 42.5±3.3 GtCO2 ). Also for 2018, GATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr −1 ( 2.4±0.1 ppm yr −1 ), SOCEAN was 2.6±0.6 GtC yr −1 , and SLAND was 3.5±0.7 GtC yr −1 , with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of +0.6 % (range of
−0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the
USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected
for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of
the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global
carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but
discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of
semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among
individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations
shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions
over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different
methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern
extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2
variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update
documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global
carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle
compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quere et
al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by
this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein
et al., 2019).read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Global Carbon Budget 2020
Pierre Friedlingstein,Pierre Friedlingstein,Michael O'Sullivan,Matthew W. Jones,Robbie M. Andrew,Judith Hauck,Are Olsen,Glen P. Peters,Wouter Peters,Wouter Peters,Julia Pongratz,Julia Pongratz,Stephen Sitch,Corinne Le Quéré,Josep G. Canadell,Philippe Ciais,Robert B. Jackson,Simone R. Alin,Luiz E. O. C. Aragão,Luiz E. O. C. Aragão,Almut Arneth,Vivek K. Arora,Nicholas R. Bates,Nicholas R. Bates,Meike Becker,Alice Benoit-Cattin,Henry C. Bittig,Laurent Bopp,Selma Bultan,Naveen Chandra,Naveen Chandra,Frédéric Chevallier,Louise Chini,Wiley Evans,Liesbeth Florentie,Piers M. Forster,Thomas Gasser,Marion Gehlen,Dennis Gilfillan,Thanos Gkritzalis,Luke Gregor,Nicolas Gruber,Ian Harris,Kerstin Hartung,Kerstin Hartung,Vanessa Haverd,Richard A. Houghton,Tatiana Ilyina,Atul K. Jain,Emilie Joetzjer,Koji Kadono,Etsushi Kato,Vassilis Kitidis,Jan Ivar Korsbakken,Peter Landschützer,Nathalie Lefèvre,Andrew Lenton,Sebastian Lienert,Zhu Liu,Danica Lombardozzi,Gregg Marland,Nicolas Metzl,David R. Munro,David R. Munro,Julia E. M. S. Nabel,S. Nakaoka,Yosuke Niwa,Kevin D. O'Brien,Kevin D. O'Brien,Tsuneo Ono,Paul I. Palmer,Denis Pierrot,Benjamin Poulter,Laure Resplandy,Eddy Robertson,Christian Rödenbeck,Jörg Schwinger,Roland Séférian,Ingunn Skjelvan,Adam J. P. Smith,Adrienne J. Sutton,Toste Tanhua,Pieter P. Tans,Hanqin Tian,Bronte Tilbrook,Bronte Tilbrook,Guido R. van der Werf,N. Vuichard,Anthony P. Walker,Rik Wanninkhof,Andrew J. Watson,David R. Willis,Andy Wiltshire,Wenping Yuan,Xu Yue,Sönke Zaehle +95 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties, including emissions from land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models.
Journal ArticleDOI
Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement
Corinne Le Quéré,Robert B. Jackson,Matthew W. Jones,Adam J. P. Smith,Sam Abernethy,Robbie M. Andrew,Anthony J. De-Gol,David R. Willis,Yuli Shan,Josep G. Canadell,Pierre Friedlingstein,Pierre Friedlingstein,Felix Creutzig,Glen P. Peters +13 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compile government policies and activity data to estimate the decrease in CO2 emissions during forced confinements during the COVID-19 pandemic, which drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world.
Journal ArticleDOI
Presentation and evaluation of the IPSL‐CM6A‐LR climate model
Olivier Boucher,Jérôme Servonnat,Anna Lea Albright,Olivier Aumont,Yves Balkanski,Vladislav Bastrikov,Slimane Bekki,Rémy Bonnet,Sandrine Bony,Laurent Bopp,Pascale Braconnot,Patrick Brockmann,Patricia Cadule,Arnaud Caubel,Frédérique Cheruy,Francis Codron,Anne Cozic,David Cugnet,Fabio D'Andrea,Paolo Davini,Casimir de Lavergne,Sébastien Denvil,Julie Deshayes,Marion Devilliers,Agnès Ducharne,Jean-Louis Dufresne,Eliott Dupont,Christian Ethé,Laurent Fairhead,Lola Falletti,Simona Flavoni,Marie Alice Foujols,Sébastien Gardoll,Guillaume Gastineau,Josefine Ghattas,Jean Yves Grandpeix,Bertrand Guenet,E. Guez Lionel,Eric Guilyardi,Matthieu Guimberteau,Didier Hauglustaine,Frédéric Hourdin,Abderrahmane Idelkadi,Sylvie Joussaume,Masa Kageyama,Myriam Khodri,Gerhard Krinner,Nicolas Lebas,Guillaume Levavasseur,Claire Lévy,Laurent Li,François Lott,Thibaut Lurton,Sebastiaan Luyssaert,Gurvan Madec,Jean Baptiste Madeleine,Fabienne Maignan,Marion Marchand,Olivier Marti,Lidia Mellul,Yann Meurdesoif,Juliette Mignot,Ionela Musat,Catherine Ottlé,Philippe Peylin,Yann Planton,Jan Polcher,Catherine Rio,Nicolas Rochetin,Clément Rousset,Pierre Sepulchre,Adriana Sima,Didier Swingedouw,Rémi Thiéblemont,Abdoul Khadre Traore,Martin Vancoppenolle,Jessica Vial,Jérôme Vialard,Nicolas Viovy,Nicolas Vuichard +79 more
TL;DR: The authors presented the global climate model IPSL-CM6A-LR developed at the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL) to study natural climate variability and climate response to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
Journal ArticleDOI
Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world
Nate G. McDowell,Craig D. Allen,Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira,Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira,Brian H. Aukema,Ben Bond-Lamberty,Louise Chini,James S. Clark,Michael Dietze,Charlotte Grossiord,Adam Hanbury-Brown,George C. Hurtt,Robert B. Jackson,Daniel J. Johnson,Lara M. Kueppers,Lara M. Kueppers,Jeremy W. Lichstein,Kiona Ogle,Benjamin Poulter,Thomas A. M. Pugh,Rupert Seidl,Rupert Seidl,Monica G. Turner,María Uriarte,Anthony P. Walker,Chonggang Xu +25 more
TL;DR: The authors show that shifts in forest dynamics are already occurring, and the emerging pattern is that global forests are tending toward younger stands with faster turnover as old-growth forest with stable dynamics are dwindling.
Journal ArticleDOI
Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19
Piers M. Forster,Harriet I. Forster,Mat J. Evans,Matthew Gidden,Chris D. Jones,Christoph A. Keller,Christoph A. Keller,Robin Lamboll,Corinne Le Quéré,Joeri Rogelj,Joeri Rogelj,Deborah Rosen,Carl-Friedrich Schleussner,Thomas Richardson,Christopher J. Smith,Christopher J. Smith,Steven Turnock,Steven Turnock +17 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005°C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies.
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