Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change
Heike K. Lotze,Derek P. Tittensor,Derek P. Tittensor,Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz,Tyler D. Eddy,Tyler D. Eddy,William W. L. Cheung,Eric D. Galbraith,Eric D. Galbraith,Manuel Barange,Nicolas Barrier,Daniele Bianchi,Julia L. Blanchard,Laurent Bopp,Matthias Büchner,Catherine M. Bulman,David A. Carozza,Villy Christensen,Marta Coll,John P. Dunne,Elizabeth A. Fulton,Simon Jennings,Simon Jennings,Miranda C. Jones,Steve Mackinson,Olivier Maury,Olivier Maury,Susa Niiranen,Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos,Tilla Roy,Jose A. Fernandes,Jacob Schewe,Yunne-Jai Shin,Yunne-Jai Shin,Tiago H. Silva,Jeroen Steenbeek,Charles A. Stock,Philippe Verley,Jan Volkholz,Nicola D. Walker,Boris Worm +40 more
TLDR
An integrated global ocean assessment of climate change impacts using an ensemble of multiple climate and ecosystem models reveals that global marine animal biomass will decline under all emission scenarios, driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production.Abstract:
While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.read more
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Rebuilding marine life
Carlos M. Duarte,Carlos M. Duarte,Susana Agustí,Edward B. Barbier,Gregory L. Britten,Juan Carlos Castilla,Jean-Pierre Gattuso,Jean-Pierre Gattuso,Jean-Pierre Gattuso,Robinson W. Fulweiler,Terry P. Hughes,Nancy Knowlton,Catherine E. Lovelock,Heike K. Lotze,Milica Predragovic,Elvira S. Poloczanska,Callum M. Roberts,Boris Worm +17 more
TL;DR: Recovery rates across studies suggest that substantial recovery of the abundance, structure and function of marine life could be achieved by 2050 if major pressures, including climate change, are mitigated.
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Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections
Lester Kwiatkowski,Olivier Torres,Laurent Bopp,Olivier Aumont,Matthew A. Chamberlain,James R. Christian,John P. Dunne,Marion Gehlen,Tatiana Ilyina,Jasmin G. John,Andrew Lenton,Andrew Lenton,Hongmei Li,Nicole S. Lovenduski,James C. Orr,Julien Palmieri,Yeray Santana-Falcón,Jörg Schwinger,Roland Séférian,Charles A. Stock,Alessandro Tagliabue,Yohei Takano,Yohei Takano,Jerry Tjiputra,Katsuya Toyama,Hiroyuki Tsujino,Michio Watanabe,Akitomo Yamamoto,Andrew Yool,Tilo Ziehn +29 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assess projections of these drivers of environmental change over the twenty-first century from Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that were forced under the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
Journal ArticleDOI
The GFDL Earth System Model Version 4.1 (GFDL-ESM 4.1): Overall Coupled Model Description and Simulation Characteristics
John P. Dunne,Larry W. Horowitz,Alistair Adcroft,Paul Ginoux,Isaac M. Held,Jasmin G. John,John P. Krasting,Sergey Malyshev,Vaishali Naik,Fabien Paulot,Elena Shevliakova,Charles A. Stock,Niki Zadeh,Venkatramani Balaji,Chris Blanton,Krista A. Dunne,C. Dupuis,J. Durachta,R. Dussin,Paul P. G. Gauthier,Stephen M. Griffies,Stephen M. Griffies,Huan Guo,Huan Guo,Robert Hallberg,Matthew Harrison,Jie He,William J. Hurlin,Colleen McHugh,R. Menzel,Paul C.D. Milly,S. Nikonov,David Paynter,Jeffrey J. Ploshay,Aparna Radhakrishnan,K. Rand,Brandon G. Reichl,T. Robinson,Daniel M Schwarzkopf,Lori T. Sentman,Seth Underwood,H. Vahlenkamp,Michael Winton,Andrew T. Wittenberg,Bruce Wyman,Yujin Zeng,Ming Zhao +46 more
TL;DR: The GFDL Earth System Model 4.1 (ESM4.1) as mentioned in this paper was developed as part of its fourth-generation coupled model development activities with model results contributed publicly to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.
Journal ArticleDOI
Current status of the algae production industry in Europe: an emerging sector of the Blue Bioeconomy
Rita Araújo,Fatima Vázquez Calderón,Javier Sanchez Lopez,Isabel C. Azevedo,Annette Bruhn,Silvia Fluch,Manuel García Tasende,Fatemeh Ghaderiardakani,Tanel Ilmjärv,Martial Laurans,Michéal Mac Monagail,Silvio Mangini,César Peteiro,Céline Rebours,Tryggvi S. Stefansson,Jörg Ullmann +15 more
TL;DR: The results of a comprehensive mapping and detailed characterisation of the algae production at the European scale, encompassing macroalgae, microalgae and the cyanobacteria Spirulina, were presented and analyzed in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6.
Roland Séférian,Sarah Berthet,Andrew Yool,Julien Palmieri,Laurent Bopp,Alessandro Tagliabue,Lester Kwiatkowski,Olivier Aumont,James R. Christian,John P. Dunne,Marion Gehlen,Tatiana Ilyina,Jasmin G. John,Hongmei Li,Matthew C. Long,Jessica Y. Luo,Hideyuki Nakano,Anastasia Romanou,Jörg Schwinger,Charles A. Stock,Yeray Santana-Falcón,Yohei Takano,Yohei Takano,Jerry Tjiputra,Hiroyuki Tsujino,Michio Watanabe,Tongwen Wu,Fanghua Wu,Akitomo Yamamoto +28 more
TL;DR: The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
References
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