Showing papers in "Biogeosciences in 2020"

Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections

Abstract: . Anthropogenic climate change is projected to lead to ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, reductions in near-surface nutrients, and changes to primary production, all of which are expected to affect marine ecosystems. Here we assess projections of these drivers of environmental change over the twenty-first century from Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that were forced under the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Projections are compared to those from the previous generation (CMIP5) forced under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). A total of 10 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 models are used in the two multi-model ensembles. Under the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the multi-model global mean change (2080–2099 mean values relative to 1870–1899) ± the inter-model SD in sea surface temperature, surface pH, subsurface (100–600 m ) oxygen concentration, euphotic (0–100 m ) nitrate concentration, and depth-integrated primary production is + 3.47 ± 0.78 ∘C , - 0.44 ± 0.005 , - 13.27 ± 5.28 , - 1.06 ± 0.45 mmol m−3 and - 2.99 ± 9.11 %, respectively. Under the low-emission, high-mitigation scenario SSP1-2.6, the corresponding global changes are + 1.42 ± 0.32 ∘C , - 0.16 ± 0.002 , - 6.36 ± 2.92 , - 0.52 ± 0.23 mmol m−3 , and - 0.56 ± 4.12 %. Projected exposure of the marine ecosystem to these drivers of ocean change depends largely on the extent of future emissions, consistent with previous studies. The ESMs in CMIP6 generally project greater warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than those from CMIP5 under comparable radiative forcing. The increased projected ocean warming results from a general increase in the climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models relative to those of CMIP5. This enhanced warming increases upper-ocean stratification in CMIP6 projections, which contributes to greater reductions in upper-ocean nitrate and subsurface oxygen ventilation. The greater surface acidification in CMIP6 is primarily a consequence of the SSPs having higher associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations than their RCP analogues for the same radiative forcing. We find no consistent reduction in inter-model uncertainties, and even an increase in net primary production inter-model uncertainties in CMIP6, as compared to CMIP5.

Scaling carbon fluxes from eddy covariance sites to globe: synthesis and evaluation of the FLUXCOM approach

Abstract: . FLUXNET comprises globally distributed eddy-covariance-based estimates of carbon fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Since eddy covariance flux towers have a relatively small footprint and are distributed unevenly across the world, upscaling the observations is necessary to obtain global-scale estimates of biosphere–atmosphere exchange. Based on cross-consistency checks with atmospheric inversions, sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), here we provide a systematic assessment of the latest upscaling efforts for gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of the FLUXCOM initiative, where different machine learning methods, forcing data sets and sets of predictor variables were employed. Spatial patterns of mean GPP are consistent across FLUXCOM and DGVM ensembles ( R2>0.94 at 1 ∘ spatial resolution) while the majority of DGVMs show, for 70 % of the land surface, values outside the FLUXCOM range. Global mean GPP magnitudes for 2008–2010 from FLUXCOM members vary within 106 and 130 PgC yr −1 with the largest uncertainty in the tropics. Seasonal variations in independent SIF estimates agree better with FLUXCOM GPP (mean global pixel-wise R2∼0.75 ) than with GPP from DGVMs (mean global pixel-wise R2∼0.6 ). Seasonal variations in FLUXCOM NEE show good consistency with atmospheric inversion-based net land carbon fluxes, particularly for temperate and boreal regions ( R2>0.92 ). Interannual variability of global NEE in FLUXCOM is underestimated compared to inversions and DGVMs. The FLUXCOM version which also uses meteorological inputs shows a strong co-variation in interannual patterns with inversions ( R2=0.87 for 2001–2010). Mean regional NEE from FLUXCOM shows larger uptake than inversion and DGVM-based estimates, particularly in the tropics with discrepancies of up to several hundred grammes of carbon per square metre per year. These discrepancies can only partly be reconciled by carbon loss pathways that are implicit in inversions but not captured by the flux tower measurements such as carbon emissions from fires and water bodies. We hypothesize that a combination of systematic biases in the underlying eddy covariance data, in particular in tall tropical forests, and a lack of site history effects on NEE in FLUXCOM are likely responsible for the too strong tropical carbon sink estimated by FLUXCOM. Furthermore, as FLUXCOM does not account for CO2 fertilization effects, carbon flux trends are not realistic. Overall, current FLUXCOM estimates of mean annual and seasonal cycles of GPP as well as seasonal NEE variations provide useful constraints of global carbon cycling, while interannual variability patterns from FLUXCOM are valuable but require cautious interpretation. Exploring the diversity of Earth observation data and of machine learning concepts along with improved quality and quantity of flux tower measurements will facilitate further improvements of the FLUXCOM approach overall.

Quantifying impacts of the 2018 drought on European ecosystems in comparison to 2003

Abstract: . In recent decades, an increasing persistence of atmospheric circulation patterns has been observed. In the course of the associated long-lasting anticyclonic summer circulations, heatwaves and drought spells often coincide, leading to so-called hotter droughts. Previous hotter droughts caused a decrease in agricultural yields and an increase in tree mortality. Thus, they had a remarkable effect on carbon budgets and negative economic impacts. Consequently, a quantification of ecosystem responses to hotter droughts and a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms are crucial. In this context, the European hotter drought of the year 2018 may be considered a key event. As a first step towards the quantification of its causes and consequences, we here assess anomalies of atmospheric circulation patterns, maximum temperature, and climatic water balance as potential drivers of ecosystem responses which are quantified by remote sensing using the MODIS vegetation indices (VIs) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI). To place the drought of 2018 within a climatological context, we compare its climatic features and remotely sensed ecosystem response with the extreme hot drought of 2003. The year 2018 was characterized by a climatic dipole, featuring extremely hot and dry weather conditions north of the Alps but comparably cool and moist conditions across large parts of the Mediterranean. Analysing the ecosystem response of five dominant land cover classes, we found significant positive effects of climatic water balance on ecosystem VI response. Negative drought impacts appeared to affect an area 1.5 times larger and to be significantly stronger in July 2018 compared to August 2003, i.e. at the respective peak of drought. Moreover, we found a significantly higher sensitivity of pastures and arable land to climatic water balance compared to forests in both years. We explain the stronger coupling and higher sensitivity of ecosystem response in 2018 by the prevailing climatic dipole: while the generally water-limited ecosystems of the Mediterranean experienced above-average climatic water balance, the less drought-adapted ecosystems of central and northern Europe experienced a record hot drought. In conclusion, this study quantifies the drought of 2018 as a yet unprecedented event, outlines hotspots of drought-impacted areas in 2018 which should be given particular attention in follow-up studies, and provides valuable insights into the heterogeneous responses of the dominant European ecosystems to hotter drought.

Carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models

Abstract: . Results from the fully and biogeochemically coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1 % yr −1 (1pctCO2) from its preindustrial value are analyzed to quantify the magnitude of carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters which measure the response of ocean and terrestrial carbon pools to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the resulting change in global climate, respectively. The results are based on 11 comprehensive Earth system models from the most recent (sixth) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and compared with eight models from the fifth CMIP (CMIP5). The strength of the carbon–concentration feedback is of comparable magnitudes over land (mean ± standard deviation = 0.97 ± 0.40 PgC ppm −1 ) and ocean (0.79 ± 0.07 PgC ppm −1 ), while the carbon–climate feedback over land ( −45.1 ± 50.6 PgC ∘ C −1 ) is about 3 times larger than over ocean ( −17.2 ± 5.0 PgC ∘ C −1 ). The strength of both feedbacks is an order of magnitude more uncertain over land than over ocean as has been seen in existing studies. These values and their spread from 11 CMIP6 models have not changed significantly compared to CMIP5 models. The absolute values of feedback parameters are lower for land with models that include a representation of nitrogen cycle. The transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the 11 CMIP6 models considered here is 1.77 ± 0.37 ∘ C EgC −1 and is similar to that found in CMIP5 models (1.63 ± 0.48 ∘ C EgC −1 ) but with somewhat reduced model spread. The expressions for feedback parameters based on the fully and biogeochemically coupled configurations of the 1pctCO2 simulation are simplified when the small temperature change in the biogeochemically coupled simulation is ignored. Decomposition of the terms of these simplified expressions for the feedback parameters is used to gain insight into the reasons for differing responses among ocean and land carbon cycle models.

Historical CO 2 emissions from land-use and land-cover change and their uncertainty

Abstract: . Emissions from land use and land cover change are a key component of the global carbon cycle. However, models are required to disentangle these emissions from the land carbon sink, as only the sum of both can be physically observed. Their assessment within the yearly community-wide effort known as the “Global Carbon Budget” remains a major difficulty, because it combines two lines of evidence that are inherently inconsistent: bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models. Here, we propose a unifying approach that relies on a bookkeeping model, which embeds processes and parameters calibrated on dynamic global vegetation models, and the use of an empirical constraint. We estimate that the global CO2 emissions from land use and land cover change were 1.36±0.42 PgC yr −1 (1 σ range) on average over the 2009–2018 period and reached a cumulative total of 206±57 PgC over the 1750–2018 period. We also estimate that land cover change induced a global loss of additional sink capacity – that is, a foregone carbon removal, not part of the emissions – of 0.68±0.57 PgC yr −1 and 32±23 PgC over the same periods, respectively. Additionally, we provide a breakdown of our results' uncertainty, including aspects such as the land use and land cover change data sets used as input and the model's biogeochemical parameters. We find that the biogeochemical uncertainty dominates our global and regional estimates with the exception of tropical regions in which the input data dominates. Our analysis further identifies key sources of uncertainty and suggests ways to strengthen the robustness of future Global Carbon Budget estimates.

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO 2

Abstract: The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO2 concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is −0.36 to 0.29 ∘C, with a model ensemble mean of −0.07 ∘C, median of −0.05 ∘C, and standard deviation of 0.19 ∘C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.

Dimensions of marine phytoplankton diversity

Abstract: . Biodiversity of phytoplankton is important for ecosystem stability and marine biogeochemistry. However, the large-scale patterns of diversity are not well understood and are often poorly characterized in terms of statistical relationships with factors such as latitude, temperature and productivity. Here we use ecological theory and a global trait-based ecosystem model to provide mechanistic understanding of patterns of phytoplankton diversity. Our study suggests that phytoplankton diversity across three dimensions of trait space (size, biogeochemical function and thermal tolerance) is controlled by disparate combinations of drivers: the supply rate of the limiting resource, the imbalance in different resource supplies relative to competing phytoplankton demands, size-selective grazing and transport by the moving ocean. Using sensitivity studies we show that each dimension of diversity is controlled by different drivers. Models including only one (or two) of the trait dimensions will have different patterns of diversity than one which incorporates another trait dimension. We use the results of our model exploration to infer the controls on the diversity patterns derived from field observations along meridional transects in the Atlantic and to explain why different taxa and size classes have differing patterns.

Reviews and syntheses: The mechanisms underlying carbon storage in soil

Abstract: . Soil organic matter (OM) represents a key C pool for climate regulation but also an essential component for soil functions and services. Scientific research in the 21st century has considerably improved our knowledge of soil organic matter and its dynamics, particularly under the pressure of the global disruption of the carbon cycle. This paper reviews the processes that control C dynamics in soil, the representation of these processes over time, and their dependence on variations in major biotic and abiotic factors. The most recent advanced knowledge gained on soil organic matter includes the following. (1) Most organic matter is composed of small molecules, derived from living organisms, without transformation via additional abiotic organic polymerization; (2) microbial compounds are predominant in the long term; (3) primary belowground production contributes more to organic matter than aboveground inputs; (4) the contribution of less biodegradable compounds to soil organic matter is low in the long term; (5) two major factors determine the soil organic carbon production “yield” from the initial substrates: the yield of carbon used by microorganisms and the association with minerals, particularly poorly crystalline minerals, which stabilize microbial compounds; (6) interactions between plants and microorganisms also regulate the carbon turnover time and therefore carbon stocks; (7) among abiotic and biotic factors that regulate the carbon turnover time, only a few are considered in current modeling approaches (i.e., temperature, soil water content, pH, particle size, and sometimes C and N interactions); and (8) although most models of soil C dynamics assume that the processes involved are linear, there are now many indications of nonlinear soil C dynamics processes linked to soil OM dynamics (e.g., priming). Farming practices, therefore, affect soil C stocks not only through carbon inputs but also via their effect on microbial and organomineral interactions, yet it has still not been possible to properly identify the main mechanisms involved in C loss (or gain). Greater insight into these mechanisms and their interdependencies, hierarchy and sensitivity to agricultural practices could provide future levers of action for C sequestration in soil.

Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Abstract: . Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs.

Risk of crop failure due to compound dry and hot extremes estimated with nested copulas

Abstract: . Drought and heat events stress agricultural systems and may threaten food security. The interaction between co-occurring drought and hot conditions is often particularly damaging to crop's health and may cause crop failure. In this context, traditional univariate analyses may not be adequate for reliable risk assessment of crop failure associated with compound hazards. Climate change exacerbates such risks due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of dry and hot events in many land regions. Here we model the trivariate dependence between spring maximum temperature, spring precipitation and wheat and barley yields, respectively, over two province clusters in Spain with nested copulas. Based on the full trivariate joint distribution, we (i) estimate the impact of compound hot and dry conditions on wheat and barley loss and (ii) estimate the additional impact due to compound hazards compared to individual hazards. We find that crop loss increases when drought- or heat-stress aggravates to compound dry and hot conditions and that an increase in the severity of compound conditions leads to larger damages. For instance, compared to moderate drought only, compound dry and hot conditions increase the likelihood of crop loss by 8 to 11 %, while when starting with moderate heat, the increase is between 19 to 29 % (depending on the cereal and region). This means that the likelihood of crop loss is driven primarily by drought stress than by heat stress, suggesting that drought plays the dominant role in the compound event, that is, drought stress does not require to be so extreme as heat stress to cause a similar damage. Furthermore, when compound dry and hot conditions aggravate from moderate to severe or extreme stress, crop loss probabilities increase 5 to 6 % and 6 to 8 %, respectively (depending on the cereal and region). Our results highlight the additional value of a trivariate approach for the estimating the compounding effects of dry and hot extremes on of crop failure risk. Therefore, this approach can effectively contribute to design management options and guide the decision-making process in agricultural practices.

Macroalgal metabolism and lateral carbon flows can create significant carbon sinks

Abstract: . Macroalgal beds have drawn attention as one of the vegetated coastal ecosystems that act as atmospheric CO2 sinks. Although macroalgal metabolism as well as inorganic and organic carbon flows are important pathways for CO2 uptake by macroalgal beds, the relationships between macroalgal metabolism and associated carbon flows are still poorly understood. In the present study, we investigated carbon flows, including air–water CO2 exchange and budgets of dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), in a temperate macroalgal bed during the productive months of the year. To assess the key mechanisms responsible for atmospheric CO2 uptake by the macroalgal bed, we estimated macroalgal metabolism and lateral carbon flows (i.e., carbon exchanges between the macroalgal bed and the offshore area) by using field measurements of carbon species, a field-bag method, a degradation experiment, and mass-balance modeling in a temperate Sargassum bed over a diurnal cycle. Our results showed that macroalgal metabolism and lateral carbon flows driven by water exchange affected air–water CO2 exchange in the macroalgal bed and the surrounding waters. Macroalgal metabolism caused overlying waters to contain low concentrations of CO2 and high concentrations of DOC that were efficiently exported offshore from the macroalgal bed. These results indicate that the exported water can potentially lower CO2 concentrations in the offshore surface water and enhance atmospheric CO2 uptake. Furthermore, the Sargassum bed exported 6 %–35 % of the macroalgal net community production (NCP; 302–1378 mmol C m −2 d −1 ) as DOC to the offshore area. The results of degradation experiments showed that 56 %–78 % of macroalgal DOC was refractory DOC (RDOC) that persisted for 150 d; thus, the Sargassum bed exported 5 %–20 % of the macroalgal NCP as RDOC. Our findings suggest that macroalgal beds in habitats associated with high water exchange rates can create significant CO2 sinks around them and export a substantial amount of DOC to offshore areas.

Nitrogen cycling in CMIP6 land surface models: progress and limitations

Abstract: . The nitrogen cycle and its effect on carbon uptake in the terrestrial biosphere is a recent progression in earth system models. As with any new component of a model, it is important to understand the behaviour, strengths, and limitations of the various process representations. Here we assess and compare five land surface models with nitrogen cycles that are used as the terrestrial components of some of the earth system models in CMIP6. The land surface models were run offline with a common spin-up and forcing protocol. We use a historical control simulation and two perturbations to assess the model nitrogen-related performances: a simulation with atmospheric carbon dioxide increased by 200 ppm and one with nitrogen deposition increased by 50 kgN ha −1 yr −1 . There is generally greater variability in productivity response between models to increased nitrogen than to carbon dioxide. Across the five models the response to carbon dioxide globally was 5 % to 20 % and the response to nitrogen was 2 % to 24 %. The models are not evenly distributed within the ensemble range, with two of the models having low productivity response to nitrogen and another one with low response to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, compared to the other models. In all five models individual grid cells tend to exhibit bimodality, with either a strong response to increased nitrogen or atmospheric carbon dioxide but rarely to both to an equal extent. However, this local effect does not scale to either the regional or global level. The global and tropical responses are generally more accurately modelled than boreal, tundra, or other high-latitude areas compared to observations. These results are due to divergent choices in the representation of key nitrogen cycle processes. They show the need for more observational studies to enhance understanding of nitrogen cycle processes, especially nitrogen-use efficiency and biological nitrogen fixation.

A double peak in the seasonality of California's photosynthesis as observed from space

Abstract: . Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been shown to be a powerful proxy for photosynthesis and gross primary productivity (GPP). The recently launched TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) features the required spectral resolution and signal-to-noise ratio to retrieve SIF from space. Here, we present a downscaling method to obtain 500 m spatial resolution SIF over California. We report daily values based on a 14 d window. TROPOMI SIF data show a strong correspondence with daily GPP estimates at AmeriFlux sites across multiple ecosystems in California. We find a linear relationship between SIF and GPP that is largely invariant across ecosystems with an intercept that is not significantly different from zero. Measurements of SIF from TROPOMI agree with MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices – the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and near-infrared reflectance of vegetation index (NIR v ) – at annual timescales but indicate different temporal dynamics at monthly and daily timescales. TROPOMI SIF data show a double peak in the seasonality of photosynthesis, a feature that is not present in the MODIS vegetation indices. The different seasonality in the vegetation indices may be due to a clear-sky bias in the vegetation indices, whereas previous work has shown SIF to have a low sensitivity to clouds and to detect the downregulation of photosynthesis even when plants appear green. We further decompose the spatiotemporal patterns in the SIF data based on land cover. The double peak in the seasonality of California's photosynthesis is due to two processes that are out of phase: grasses, chaparral, and oak savanna ecosystems show an April maximum, while evergreen forests peak in June. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis corroborates the phase offset and spatial patterns driving the double peak. The EOF analysis further indicates that two spatiotemporal patterns explain 84 % of the variability in the SIF data. Results shown here are promising for obtaining global GPP at sub-kilometer spatial scales and identifying the processes driving carbon uptake.

Fire hazard modulation by long-term dynamics in land cover and dominant forest type in eastern and central Europe

Abstract: . Wildfire occurrence is influenced by climate, vegetation and human activities. A key challenge for understanding the risk of fires is quantifying the mediating effect of vegetation on fire regimes. Here, we explore the relative importance of Holocene land cover, land use, dominant functional forest type, and climate dynamics on biomass burning in temperate and boreo-nemoral regions of central and eastern Europe over the past 12 kyr. We used an extensive data set of Holocene pollen and sedimentary charcoal records, in combination with climate simulations and statistical modelling. Biomass burning was highest during the early Holocene and lowest during the mid-Holocene in all three ecoregions (Atlantic, continental and boreo-nemoral) but was more spatially variable over the past 3–4 kyr. Although climate explained a significant variance in biomass burning during the early Holocene, tree cover was consistently the highest predictor of past biomass burning over the past 8 kyr. In temperate forests, biomass burning was high at ∼45 % tree cover and decreased to a minimum at between 60 % and 70 % tree cover. In needleleaf-dominated forests, biomass burning was highest at ∼ 60 %–65 % tree cover and steeply declined at >65 % tree cover. Biomass burning also increased when arable lands and grasslands reached ∼ 15 %–20 %, although this relationship was variable depending on land use practice via ignition sources, fuel type and quantities. Higher tree cover reduced the amount of solar radiation reaching the forest floor and could provide moister, more wind-protected microclimates underneath canopies, thereby decreasing fuel flammability. Tree cover at which biomass burning increased appears to be driven by warmer and drier summer conditions during the early Holocene and by increasing human influence on land cover during the late Holocene. We suggest that long-term fire hazard may be effectively reduced through land cover management, given that land cover has controlled fire regimes under the dynamic climates of the Holocene.

Reviews and syntheses: Biological weathering and its consequences at different spatial levels - from nanoscale to global scale

Abstract: . Plant nutrients can be recycled through microbial decomposition of organic matter but replacement of base cations and phosphorus, lost through harvesting of biomass/biofuels or leaching, requires de novo supply of fresh nutrients released through weathering of soil parent material (minerals and rocks). Weathering involves physical and chemical processes that are modified by biological activity of plants, microorganisms and animals. This article reviews recent progress made in understanding biological processes contributing to weathering. A perspective of increasing spatial scale is adopted, examining the consequences of biological activity for weathering from nanoscale interactions, through in vitro and in planta microcosm and mesocosm studies, to field experiments, and finally ecosystem and global level effects. The topics discussed include the physical alteration of minerals and mineral surfaces; the composition, amounts, chemical properties, and effects of plant and microbial secretions; and the role of carbon flow (including stabilisation and sequestration of C in organic and inorganic forms). Although the predominant focus is on the effects of fungi in forest ecosystems, the properties of biofilms, including bacterial interactions, are also discussed. The implications of these biological processes for modelling are discussed, and we attempt to identify some key questions and knowledge gaps, as well as experimental approaches and areas of research in which future studies are likely to yield useful results. A particular focus of this article is to improve the representation of the ways in which biological processes complement physical and chemical processes that mobilise mineral elements, making them available for plant uptake. This is necessary to produce better estimates of weathering that are required for sustainable management of forests in a post-fossil-fuel economy. While there are abundant examples of nanometre- and micrometre-scale physical interactions between microorganisms and different minerals, opinion appears to be divided with respect to the quantitative significance of these observations for overall weathering. Numerous in vitro experiments and microcosm studies involving plants and their associated microorganisms suggest that the allocation of plant-derived carbon, mineral dissolution and plant nutrient status are tightly coupled, but there is still disagreement about the extent to which these processes contribute to field-scale observations. Apart from providing dynamically responsive pathways for the allocation of plant-derived carbon to power dissolution of minerals, mycorrhizal mycelia provide conduits for the long-distance transportation of weathering products back to plants that are also quantitatively significant sinks for released nutrients. These mycelial pathways bridge heterogeneous substrates, reducing the influence of local variation in C:N ratios. The production of polysaccharide matrices by biofilms of interacting bacteria and/or fungi at interfaces with mineral surfaces and roots influences patterns of production of antibiotics and quorum sensing molecules, with concomitant effects on microbial community structure, and the qualitative and quantitative composition of mineral-solubilising compounds and weathering products. Patterns of carbon allocation and nutrient mobilisation from both organic and inorganic substrates have been studied at larger spatial and temporal scales, including both ecosystem and global levels, and there is a generally wider degree of acceptance of the “systemic” effects of microorganisms on patterns of nutrient mobilisation. Theories about the evolutionary development of weathering processes have been advanced but there is still a lack of information connecting processes at different spatial scales. Detailed studies of the liquid chemistry of local weathering sites at the micrometre scale, together with upscaling to soil-scale dissolution rates, are advocated, as well as new approaches involving stable isotopes.

Global climate response to idealized deforestation in CMIP6 models

Abstract: Changes in forest cover have a strong effect on climate through the alteration of surface biogeophysical and biogeochemical properties that affect energy, water and carbon exchange with the atmosphere. To quantify biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of deforestation in a consistent setup, nine Earth system models (ESMs) carried out an idealized experiment in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6 (CMIP6). Starting from their pre-industrial state, models linearly replace 20×106 km2 of forest area in densely forested regions with grasslands over a period of 50 years followed by a stabilization period of 30 years. Most of the deforested area is in the tropics, with a secondary peak in the boreal region. The effect on global annual near-surface temperature ranges from no significant change to a cooling by 0.55 ∘C, with a multi-model mean of −0.22±0.21 ∘C. Five models simulate a temperature increase over deforested land in the tropics and a cooling over deforested boreal land. In these models, the latitude at which the temperature response changes sign ranges from 11 to 43∘ N, with a multi-model mean of 23∘ N. A multi-ensemble analysis reveals that the detection of near-surface temperature changes even under such a strong deforestation scenario may take decades and thus longer than current policy horizons. The observed changes emerge first in the centre of deforestation in tropical regions and propagate edges, indicating the influence of non-local effects. The biogeochemical effect of deforestation are land carbon losses of 259±80 PgC that emerge already within the first decade. Based on the transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) this would yield a warming by 0.46 ± 0.22 ∘C, suggesting a net warming effect of deforestation. Lastly, this study introduces the “forest sensitivity” (as a measure of climate or carbon change per fraction or area of deforestation), which has the potential to provide lookup tables for deforestation–climate emulators in the absence of strong non-local climate feedbacks. While there is general agreement across models in their response to deforestation in terms of change in global temperatures and land carbon pools, the underlying changes in energy and carbon fluxes diverge substantially across models and geographical regions. Future analyses of the global deforestation experiments could further explore the effect on changes in seasonality of the climate response as well as large-scale circulation changes to advance our understanding and quantification of deforestation effects in the ESM frameworks.

Enhanced Weathering and related element fluxes – a cropland mesocosm approach

Abstract: . The weathering of silicates is a major control on atmospheric CO2 at geologic timescales. It was proposed to enhance this process to actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere. While there are some studies that propose and theoretically analyze the application of rock powder to agricultural land, results from field experiments are still scarce. In order to evaluate the efficiency and side effects of Enhanced Weathering (EW), a mesocosm experiment was set up and agricultural soil from Belgium was amended with olivine-bearing dunite ground to two different grain sizes, while distinguishing setups with and without crops. Based on measurements of Mg, Si, pH, and DIC, the additional weathering effect of olivine could be confirmed. Calculated weathering rates are up to 3 orders of magnitude lower than found in other studies. The calculated CO2 consumption by weathering based on the outlet water of the mesocosm systems was low with 2.3–4.9 t CO 2 km - 2 a - 1 if compared with previous theoretical estimates. Suspected causes were the removal or dilution of Mg as a weathering product by processes like adsorption, mineralization, plant uptake, evapotranspiration, and/or preferential flow, not specifically addressed in previous EW experiments for CO2 consumption. The observation that Mg concentrations in the upper soil layers were about 1 order of magnitude higher than in the outlet water indicates that a careful tracking of weathering indicators like Mg in the field is essential for a precise estimate of the CO2 consumption potential of EW, specifically under global deployment scenarios with a high diversity of ecosystem settings. Porewater Mg∕Si molar ratios suggest that dissolved Si is reprecipitating, forming a cation-depleted Si layer on the reactive mineral surface of freshly ground rocks. The release of potentially harmful trace elements is an acknowledged side effect of EW. Primarily Ni and Cr are elevated in the soil solution, while Ni concentrations exceed the limits of drinking water quality. The use of olivine, rich in Ni and Cr, is not recommended, and alternative rock sources are suggested for the application.

Oceanic CO 2 outgassing and biological production hotspots induced by pre-industrial river loads of nutrients and carbon in a global modeling approach

Abstract: . Rivers are a major source of nutrients, carbon and alkalinity to the global ocean. In this study, we firstly estimate pre-industrial riverine loads of nutrients, carbon and alkalinity based on a hierarchy of weathering and terrestrial organic matter export models, while identifying regional hotspots of the riverine exports. Secondly, we implement the riverine loads into a global ocean biogeochemical model to describe their implications for oceanic nutrient concentrations, net primary production (NPP) and air–sea CO2 fluxes globally, as well as in an analysis of coastal regions. Thirdly, we quantitatively assess the terrestrial origins and the long-term fate of riverine carbon in the ocean. We quantify annual bioavailable pre-industrial riverine loads of 3.7 Tg P, 27 Tg N, 158 Tg Si and 603 Tg C delivered to the ocean globally. We thereby identify the tropical Atlantic catchments (20 % of global C), Arctic rivers (9 % of global C) and Southeast Asian rivers (15 % of global C) as dominant suppliers of carbon for the ocean. The riverine exports lead to a simulated net global oceanic CO2 source of 231 Tg C yr −1 to the atmosphere, which is mainly caused by inorganic carbon (source of 183 Tg C yr −1 ) and by organic carbon (source of 128 Tg C yr −1 ) riverine loads. Additionally, a sink of 80 Tg C yr −1 is caused by the enhancement of the biological carbon uptake from dissolved inorganic nutrient inputs from rivers and the resulting alkalinity production. While large outgassing fluxes are simulated mostly in proximity to major river mouths, substantial outgassing fluxes can be found further offshore, most prominently in the tropical Atlantic. Furthermore, we find evidence for the interhemispheric transfer of carbon in the model; we detect a larger relative outgassing flux (49 % of global riverine-induced outgassing) in the Southern Hemisphere in comparison to the hemisphere's relative riverine inputs (33 % of global C inputs), as well as an outgassing flux of 17 Tg C yr −1 in the Southern Ocean. The addition of riverine loads in the model leads to a strong NPP increase in the tropical west Atlantic, Bay of Bengal and the East China Sea ( + 166 %, + 377 % and + 71 %, respectively). On the light-limited Arctic shelves, the NPP is not strongly sensitive to riverine loads, but the CO2 flux is strongly altered regionally due to substantial dissolved inorganic and organic carbon supplies to the region. While our study confirms that the ocean circulation remains the main driver for biogeochemical distributions in the open ocean, it reveals the necessity to consider riverine inputs for the representation of heterogeneous features in the coastal ocean and to represent riverine-induced pre-industrial carbon outgassing in the ocean. It also underlines the need to consider long-term CO2 sources from volcanic and shale oxidation fluxes in order to close the framework's atmospheric carbon budget.

Increase in ocean acidity variability and extremes under increasing atmospheric CO 2

Abstract: . Ocean acidity extreme events are short-term periods of extremely high [H+] concentrations. The uptake of anthropogenic CO2 emissions by the ocean is expected to lead to more frequent and intense ocean acidity extreme events, not only due to mean ocean acidification, but also due to increases in ocean acidity variability. Here, we use daily output from ensemble simulations of a comprehensive Earth system model under a low and high CO2 emission scenario to isolate and quantify the impact of changes in variability on changes in ocean acidity extremes. We show that the number of days with extreme [H+] conditions for surface waters is projected to increase by a factor of 14 by the end of the 21st century under a high CO2 emission scenario relative to preindustrial levels. The duration of individual events is projected to triple, and the maximal intensity and the volume extent in the upper 200 m to quintuple. Similar changes are projected in the thermocline. At surface, the changes are mainly driven by increases in [H+] seasonality, whereas changes in interannual variability are also important in the thermocline. Increases in [H+] variability and extremes arise predominantly from increases in the sensitivity of [H+] to variations in its drivers. In contrast to [H+] extremes, the occurrence of short-term extremes in low aragonite saturation state due to changes in variability is projected to decrease. An increase in [H+] variability and an associated increase in extreme events superimposed onto the long-term ocean acidification trend will enhance the risk of severe and detrimental impacts on marine organisms, especially for those that are adapted to a more stable environment.

Linking tundra vegetation, snow, soil temperature, and permafrost

Abstract: . Connections between vegetation and soil thermal dynamics are critical for estimating the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw with continued climate warming and vegetation changes. The interplay of complex biophysical processes results in a highly heterogeneous soil temperature distribution on small spatial scales. Moreover, the link between topsoil temperature and active layer thickness remains poorly constrained. Sixty-eight temperature loggers were installed at 1–3 cm depth to record the distribution of topsoil temperatures at the Trail Valley Creek study site in the northwestern Canadian Arctic. The measurements were distributed across six different vegetation types characteristic for this landscape. Two years of topsoil temperature data were analysed statistically to identify temporal and spatial characteristics and their relationship to vegetation, snow cover, and active layer thickness. The mean annual topsoil temperature varied between − 3.7 and 0.1 ∘ C within 0.5 km 2 . The observed variation can, to a large degree, be explained by variation in snow cover. Differences in snow depth are strongly related with vegetation type and show complex associations with late-summer thaw depth. While cold winter soil temperature is associated with deep active layers in the following summer for lichen and dwarf shrub tundra, we observed the opposite beneath tall shrubs and tussocks. In contrast to winter observations, summer topsoil temperature is similar below all vegetation types with an average summer topsoil temperature difference of less than 1 ∘ C. Moreover, there is no significant relationship between summer soil temperature or cumulative positive degree days and active layer thickness. Altogether, our results demonstrate the high spatial variability of topsoil temperature and active layer thickness even within specific vegetation types. Given that vegetation type defines the direction of the relationship between topsoil temperature and active layer thickness in winter and summer, estimates of permafrost vulnerability based on remote sensing or model results will need to incorporate complex local feedback mechanisms of vegetation change and permafrost thaw.

Coccolithophore biodiversity controls carbonate export in the Southern Ocean

Abstract: . Southern Ocean waters are projected to undergo profound changes in their physical and chemical properties in the coming decades. Coccolithophore blooms in the Southern Ocean are thought to account for a major fraction of the global marine calcium carbonate ( CaCO3 ) production and export to the deep sea. Therefore, changes in the composition and abundance of Southern Ocean coccolithophore populations are likely to alter the marine carbon cycle, with feedbacks to the rate of global climate change. However, the contribution of coccolithophores to CaCO3 export in the Southern Ocean is uncertain, particularly in the circumpolar subantarctic zone that represents about half of the areal extent of the Southern Ocean and where coccolithophores are most abundant. Here, we present measurements of annual CaCO3 flux and quantitatively partition them amongst coccolithophore species and heterotrophic calcifiers at two sites representative of a large portion of the subantarctic zone. We find that coccolithophores account for a major fraction of the annual CaCO3 export, with the highest contributions in waters with low algal biomass accumulations. Notably, our analysis reveals that although Emiliania huxleyi is an important vector for CaCO3 export to the deep sea, less abundant but larger species account for most of the annual coccolithophore CaCO3 flux. This observation contrasts with the generally accepted notion that high particulate inorganic carbon accumulations during the austral summer in the subantarctic Southern Ocean are mainly caused by E. huxleyi blooms. It appears likely that the climate-induced migration of oceanic fronts will initially result in the poleward expansion of large coccolithophore species increasing CaCO3 production. However, subantarctic coccolithophore populations will eventually diminish as acidification overwhelms those changes. Overall, our analysis emphasizes the need for species-centred studies to improve our ability to project future changes in phytoplankton communities and their influence on marine biogeochemical cycles.

Estimates of mean residence times of phosphorus in commonly considered inorganic soil phosphorus pools

Abstract: . Quantification of turnover of inorganic soil phosphorus (P) pools is essential to improve our understanding of P cycling in soil–plant systems and improve representations of the P cycle in land surface models. Turnover can be quantified using mean residence time (MRT); however, to date there is little information on MRT of P in soil P pools. We introduce an approach to quantify MRT of P in sequentially extracted inorganic soil P pools using data from isotope exchange kinetic experiments. Our analyses of 53 soil samples from the literature showed that MRT of labile P (resin- and bicarbonate-extractable P) was on the order of minutes to hours for most soils, MRT in NaOH-extractable P (NaOH-P) was in the range of days to months, and MRT in HCl-extractable P (HCl-P) was on the order of years to millennia. Multiple-regression models were able to capture 54 %–63 % of the variability in MRT among samples and showed that land use was the most important predictor of MRT of P in labile and NaOH pools. MRT of P in HCl-P was strongly dependent on pH, as high-pH soils tended to have longer MRTs. This was interpreted to be related to the composition of HCl-P. Under high pH, HCl-P contains mostly apatite, with a low solubility, whereas under low-pH conditions, HCl-P may contain more exchangeable P forms. These results suggest that current land surface models underestimate the dynamics of inorganic soil P pools and could be improved by reducing model MRTs of the labile and NaOH-P pools, considering soil-type-dependent MRTs rather than universal exchange rates and allowing for two-way exchange between HCl-P and the soil solution.

Towards a global understanding of vegetation–climate dynamics at multiple timescales

Abstract: . Climate variables carry signatures of variability at multiple timescales. How these modes of variability are reflected in the state of the terrestrial biosphere is still not quantified or discussed at the global scale. Here, we set out to gain a global understanding of the relevance of different modes of variability in vegetation greenness and its covariability with climate. We used >30 years of remote sensing records of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to characterize biosphere variability across timescales from submonthly oscillations to decadal trends using discrete Fourier decomposition. Climate data of air temperature ( Tair ) and precipitation (Prec) were used to characterize atmosphere–biosphere covariability at each timescale. Our results show that short-term (intra-annual) and longer-term (interannual and longer) modes of variability make regionally highly important contributions to NDVI variability: short-term oscillations focus in the tropics where they shape 27 % of NDVI variability. Longer-term oscillations shape 9 % of NDVI variability, dominantly in semiarid shrublands. Assessing dominant timescales of vegetation–climate covariation, a natural surface classification emerges which captures patterns not represented by conventional classifications, especially in the tropics. Finally, we find that correlations between variables can differ and even invert signs across timescales. For southern Africa for example, correlation between NDVI and Tair is positive for the seasonal signal but negative for short-term and longer-term oscillations, indicating that both short- and long-term temperature anomalies can induce stress on vegetation dynamics. Such contrasting correlations between timescales exist for 15 % of vegetated areas for NDVI with Tair and 27 % with Prec, indicating global relevance of scale-specific climate sensitivities. Our analysis provides a detailed picture of vegetation–climate covariability globally, characterizing ecosystems by their intrinsic modes of temporal variability. We find that (i) correlations of NDVI with climate can differ between scales, (ii) nondominant subsignals in climate variables may dominate the biospheric response, and (iii) possible links may exist between short-term and longer-term scales. These heterogeneous ecosystem responses on different timescales may depend on climate zone and vegetation type, and they are to date not well understood and do not always correspond to transitions in dominant vegetation types. These scale dependencies can be a benchmark for vegetation model evaluation and for comparing remote sensing products.

Reviews and syntheses: Present, past, and future of the oxygen minimum zone in the northern Indian Ocean

Abstract: . Decreasing concentrations of dissolved oxygen in the ocean are considered one of the main threats to marine ecosystems as they jeopardize the growth of higher organisms. They also alter the marine nitrogen cycle, which is strongly bound to the carbon cycle and climate. While higher organisms in general start to suffer from oxygen concentrations ∼ 63 µ M (hypoxia), the marine nitrogen cycle responds to oxygen concentration below a threshold of about 20 µ M (microbial hypoxia), whereas anoxic processes dominate the nitrogen cycle at oxygen concentrations of ∼ 0.05 µ M (functional anoxia). The Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are home to approximately 21 % of the total volume of ocean waters revealing microbial hypoxia. While in the Arabian Sea this oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) is also functionally anoxic, the Bay of Bengal OMZ seems to be on the verge of becoming so. Even though there are a few isolated reports on the occurrence of anoxia prior to 1960, anoxic events have so far not been reported from the open northern Indian Ocean (i.e., other than on shelves) during the last 60 years. Maintenance of functional anoxia in the Arabian Sea OMZ with oxygen concentrations ranging between > 0 and ∼ 0.05 µ M is highly extraordinary considering that the monsoon reverses the surface ocean circulation twice a year and turns vast areas of the Arabian Sea from an oligotrophic oceanic desert into one of the most productive regions of the oceans within a few weeks. Thus, the comparably low variability of oxygen concentration in the OMZ implies stable balances between the physical oxygen supply and the biological oxygen consumption, which includes negative feedback mechanisms such as reducing oxygen consumption at decreasing oxygen concentrations (e.g., reduced respiration). Lower biological oxygen consumption is also assumed to be responsible for a less intense OMZ in the Bay of Bengal. According to numerical model results, a decreasing physical oxygen supply via the inflow of water masses from the south intensified the Arabian Sea OMZ during the last 6000 years, whereas a reduced oxygen supply via the inflow of Persian Gulf Water from the north intensifies the OMZ today in response to global warming. The first is supported by data derived from the sedimentary records, and the latter concurs with observations of decreasing oxygen concentrations and a spreading of functional anoxia during the last decades in the Arabian Sea. In the Arabian Sea decreasing oxygen concentrations seem to have initiated a regime shift within the pelagic ecosystem structure, and this trend is also seen in benthic ecosystems. Consequences for biogeochemical cycles are as yet unknown, which, in addition to the poor representation of mesoscale features in global Earth system models, reduces the reliability of estimates of the future OMZ development in the northern Indian Ocean.

Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover

Abstract: . The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle, with both recent-historical baselines and future responses to environmental change poorly constrained by available observations. In the absence of large-scale observations, models tend to fall back on simplified assumptions of the turnover rates of biomass and soil carbon pools to make global assessments. In this study, the biomass carbon turnover times calculated by an ensemble of contemporary terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are analysed to assess their current capability to accurately estimate biomass carbon turnover times in forests and how these times are anticipated to change in the future. Modelled baseline 1985–2014 global forest biomass turnover times vary from 12.2 to 23.5 years between models. TBM differences in phenological processes, which control allocation to and turnover rate of leaves and fine roots, are as important as tree mortality with regard to explaining the variation in total turnover among TBMs. The different governing mechanisms exhibited by each TBM result in a wide range of plausible turnover time projections for the end of the century. Based on these simulations, it is not possible to draw robust conclusions regarding likely future changes in turnover time for different regions. Both spatial and temporal uncertainty in turnover time are strongly linked to model assumptions concerning plant functional type distributions and their controls. Twelve model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce both spatial and temporal uncertainty in turnover time. Efforts to resolve uncertainty in turnover time will need to address both mortality and establishment components of forest demography, as well as key drivers of demography such as allocation of carbon to woody versus non-woody biomass growth.

Reviews and syntheses: How do abiotic and biotic processes respond to climatic variations in the Nam Co catchment (Tibetan Plateau)?

Abstract: . The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the largest alpine plateau on Earth and plays an important role in global climate dynamics. On the TP, climate change is happening particularly fast, with an increase in air temperature twice the global average. The particular sensitivity of this high mountain environment allows observation and tracking of abiotic and biotic feedback mechanisms. Closed lake systems, such as Nam Co on the central TP, represent important natural laboratories for tracking past and recent climatic changes, as well as geobiological processes and interactions within their respective catchments. This review gives an interdisciplinary overview of past and modern environmental changes using Nam Co as a case study. In the catchment area, ongoing rise in air temperature forces glaciers to melt, contributing to a rise in lake level and changes in water chemistry. Some studies base their conclusions on inconsistent glacier inventories, but an ever-increasing deglaciation and thus higher water availability have persisted over the last few decades. Increasing water availability causes translocation of sediments, nutrients and dissolved organic matter to the lake, as well as higher carbon emissions to the atmosphere. The intensity of grazing has an additional and significant effect on CO2 fluxes, with moderate grazing enhancing belowground allocation of carbon while adversely affecting the C sink potential through reduction of above-surface and subsurface biomass at higher grazing intensities. Furthermore, increasing pressure from human activities and livestock grazing are enhancing grassland degradation processes, thus shaping biodiversity patterns in the lake and catchment. The environmental signal provided by taxon-specific analysis (e.g., diatoms and ostracods) in Nam Co revealed profound climatic fluctuations between warmer–cooler and wetter–drier periods since the late Pleistocene and an increasing input of freshwater and nutrients from the catchment in recent years. Based on the reviewed literature, we outline perspectives to further understand the effects of global warming on geodiversity and biodiversity and their interplay at Nam Co, which acts as a case study for potentially TP-level or even worldwide processes that are currently shaping high mountain areas.

Lagged effects regulate the inter-annual variability of the tropical carbon balance

Abstract: . Inter-annual variations in the tropical land carbon (C) balance are a dominant component of the global atmospheric CO 2 growth rate. Currently, the lack of quantitative knowledge on processes controlling net tropical ecosystem C balance on inter-annual timescales inhibits accurate understanding and projections of land–atmosphere C exchanges. In particular, uncertainty on the relative contribution of ecosystem C fluxes attributable to concurrent forcing anomalies (concurrent effects) and those attributable to the continuing influence of past phenomena (lagged effects) stifles efforts to explicitly understand the integrated sensitivity of a tropical ecosystem to climatic variability. Here we present a conceptual framework – applicable in principle to any land biosphere model – to explicitly quantify net biospheric exchange (NBE) as the sum of anomaly-induced concurrent changes and climatology-induced lagged changes to terrestrial ecosystem C states (NBE = NBE CON+NBELAG ). We apply this framework to an observation-constrained analysis of the 2001–2015 tropical C balance: we use a data–model integration approach (CARbon DAta-MOdel fraMework – CARDAMOM) to merge satellite-retrieved land-surface C observations (leaf area, biomass, solar-induced fluorescence), soil C inventory data and satellite-based atmospheric inversion estimates of CO 2 and CO fluxes to produce a data-constrained analysis of the 2001–2015 tropical C cycle. We find that the inter-annual variability of both concurrent and lagged effects substantially contributes to the 2001–2015 NBE inter-annual variability throughout 2001–2015 across the tropics (NBE CON IAV = 80 % of total NBE IAV, r = 0.76; NBE LAG IAV = 64 % of NBE IAV, r = 0.61), and the prominence of NBE LAG IAV persists across both wet and dry tropical ecosystems. The magnitude of lagged effect variations on NBE across the tropics is largely attributable to lagged effects on net primary productivity (NPP; NPP LAG IAV 113 % of NBE LAG IAV, r = − 0.93, p value < 0.05), which emerge due to the dependence of NPP on inter-annual variations in foliar C and plant-available H 2 O states. We conclude that concurrent and lagged effects need to be explicitly and jointly resolved to retrieve an accurate understanding of the processes regulating the present-day and future trajectory of the terrestrial land C sink.

Alpha and beta diversity patterns of polychaete assemblages across the nodule province of the eastern Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone (equatorial Pacific)

Abstract: . In the abyssal equatorial Pacific Ocean, most of the seafloor of the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone (CCFZ), a 6 million km 2 polymetallic nodule province, has been preempted for future mining. In light of the large environmental footprint that mining would leave and given the diversity and the vulnerability of the abyssal fauna, the International Seabed Authority has implemented a regional management plan that includes the creation of nine Areas of Particular Environmental Interest (APEIs) located at the periphery of the CCFZ. The scientific principles for the design of the APEIs were based on the best – albeit very limited – knowledge of the area. The fauna and habitats in the APEIs are unknown, as are species' ranges and the extent of biodiversity across the CCFZ. As part of the Joint Programming Initiative Healthy and Productive Seas and Oceans (JPI Oceans) pilot action “Ecological aspects of deep-sea mining”, the SO239 cruise provided data to improve species inventories, determine species ranges, identify the drivers of beta diversity patterns and assess the representativeness of an APEI. Four exploration contract areas and an APEI (APEI no. 3) were sampled along a gradient of sea surface primary productivity that spanned a distance of 1440 km in the eastern CCFZ. Between three and eight quantitative box cores (0.25 m 2 ; 0–10 cm) were sampled in each study area, resulting in a large collection of polychaetes that were morphologically and molecularly (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and 16S genes) analyzed. A total of 275 polychaete morphospecies were identified. Only one morphospecies was shared among all five study areas and 49 % were singletons. The patterns in community structure and composition were mainly attributed to variations in organic carbon fluxes to the seafloor at the regional scale and nodule density at the local scale, thus supporting the main assumptions underlying the design of the APEIs. However, the APEI no. 3, which is located in an oligotrophic province and separated from the CCFZ by the Clarion Fracture Zone, showed the lowest densities, lowest diversity, and a very low and distant independent similarity in community composition compared to the contract areas, thus questioning the representativeness and the appropriateness of APEI no. 3 to meet its purpose of diversity preservation. Among the four exploration contracts, which belong to a mesotrophic province, the distance decay of similarity provided a species turnover of 0.04 species km −1 , an average species range of 25 km and an extrapolated richness of up to 240 000 polychaete species in the CCFZ. By contrast, nonparametric estimators of diversity predict a regional richness of up to 498 species. Both estimates are biased by the high frequency of singletons in the dataset, which likely result from under-sampling and merely reflect our level of uncertainty. The assessment of potential risks and scales of biodiversity loss due to nodule mining thus requires an appropriate inventory of species richness in the CCFZ.

Ice formation on lake surfaces in winter causes warm-season bias of lacustrine brGDGT temperature estimates

Abstract: . It has been frequently found that lacustrine branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGT)-derived temperatures are warm-season-biased relative to measured mean annual air temperature (AT) in the middle to high latitudes, the mechanism of which, however, is not very clear. Here, we investigated the brGDGTs from catchment soils, suspended particulate matter (SPM) and surface sediments in different water depths in Gonghai Lake in northern China to explore this question. Our results showed that the brGDGT distribution in sediments resembled that in the SPM but differed from the surrounding soils, suggesting a substantial aquatic origin of the brGDGTs in the lake. Moreover, the increase in brGDGT content and decrease in methylation index with water depth in sediments suggested more contribution of aquatic brGDGTs produced from deep or bottom waters. Therefore, established lake-specific calibrations were applied to estimate local mean annual AT. As usual, the estimates were significantly higher than the measured mean annual AT. However, they were similar to (and thus actually reflected) the mean annual lake water temperature (LWT). Interestingly, the mean annual LWT is close to the measured mean warm-season AT, thus suggesting that the apparent warm-season bias of lacustrine brGDGT-derived temperatures could be caused by the discrepancy between AT and LWT. In our study region, ice forms at the lake surface during winter, leading to isolation of the underlying lake water from air and hence higher LWT than AT, while LWT basically follows AT during warm seasons when ice disappears. Therefore, we think that lacustrine brGDGTs actually reflected the mean annual LWT, which is higher than the mean annual AT in our study location. Since the decoupling between LWT and AT in winter due to ice formation is a universal physical phenomenon in the middle to high latitudes, we propose this phenomenon could be also the reason for the widely observed warm-season bias of brGDGT-derived temperatures in other seasonally surface ice-forming lakes, especially in shallow lakes.

Relevance of aboveground litter for soil organic matter formation – a soil profile perspective

Abstract: . In contrast to mineral topsoils, in subsoils the origin and processes leading to the formation and stabilization of organic matter (OM) are still not well known. This study addresses the fate of litter-derived carbon (C) in whole soil profiles with regard to the conceptual cascade model, which proposes that OM formation in subsoils is linked to sorption–microbial processing–remobilization cycles during the downward migration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Our main objectives were to quantify the contribution of recent litter to subsoil C stocks via DOC translocation and to evaluate the stability of litter-derived OM in different functional OM fractions. A plot-scale stable isotope-labeling experiment was conducted in a temperate beech forest by replacing the natural litter layer with 13C enriched litter on an area of 20 m 2 above a Dystric Cambisol. After 22 months of field exposure, the labeled litter was replaced again by natural litter and soil cores were drilled down to 180 cm soil depth. Water extraction and density fractionation were combined with stable isotope measurements in order to link the fluxes of recent litter-derived C to its allocation into different functional OM fractions. A second sampling was conducted 18 months later to further account for the stability of translocated young litter-derived C. Almost no litter-derived particulate OM (POM) entered the subsoil, suggesting root biomass as the major source of subsoil POM. The contribution of aboveground litter to the formation of mineral-associated OM (MAOM) in topsoils (0–10 cm) was 1.88±0.83 g C m −2 and decreased to 0.69±0.19 g C m −2 in the upper subsoil (10–50 cm) and 0.01±0.02 g C m −2 in the deep subsoil >100 cm soil depth during the 22 months. This finding suggests a subordinate importance of recent litter layer inputs via DOC translocation to subsoil C stocks, and implies that most of the OM in the subsoil is of older age. Smaller losses of litter-derived C within MAOM of about 66 % compared to POM (77 %–89 %) over 18 months indicate that recent carbon can be stabilized by interaction with mineral surfaces; although the overall stabilization in the sandy study soils is limited. Our isotope-labeling approach supports the concept of OM undergoing a sequence of cycles of sorption, microbial processing, and desorption while migrating down a soil profile, which needs to be considered in models of soil OM formation and subsoil C cycling.